Articles | Volume 20, issue 8
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2319-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2319-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
26 Aug 2020
Research article |
| 26 Aug 2020
| 26 Aug 2020
The mudflow disaster at Villa Santa Lucía in Chilean Patagonia: understandings and insights derived from numerical simulation and postevent field surveys
Marcelo A. Somos-Valenzuela
Department of Forest Sciences, Faculty of Agriculture and Forest
Sciences, Universidad de La Frontera, Av. Francisco Salazar 01145, Temuco,
4780000, Chile
Butamallin Research Center for Global Change, Universidad de La Frontera, Av. Francisco Salazar 01145, Temuco, 4780000, Chile
Joaquín E. Oyarzún-Ulloa
Department of Civil Engineering, Universidad de La Frontera, Av. Francisco Salazar 01145, Temuco, 4780000, Chile
Ivo J. Fustos-Toribio
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Department of Civil Engineering, Universidad de La Frontera, Av. Francisco Salazar 01145, Temuco, 4780000, Chile
Natalia Garrido-Urzua
Servicio Nacional de Geologia y Mineria, Av. La Paz 406, Puerto
Varas, Región de los Lagos, 5550000, Chile
Ningsheng Chen
Key Laboratory of Mountain Hazards and Earth Surface Processes, Institute of Mountain Hazards and Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Chengdu 610041, China
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Bastian Morales, Marcelo Somos-Valenzuela, Mario Lillo, Iñigo Irarrazaval, David Farias, Elizabet Lizama, Diego Rivera, and Alfonso Fernández
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1053, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1053, 2024
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Through a physical model, we explored how lacier geometry and topography configuration constrains glacier thinning in the Patagonian Icefields, the world's main glacial freshwater reservoir after Antarctica and Greenland. Our results indicate that about 53 % of the Patagonian Icefield ice flow is susceptible to thinning. Our findings allow for identifying priority glaciers for future research considering climate change projections.
Alton C. Byers, Marcelo Somos-Valenzuela, Dan H. Shugar, Daniel McGrath, Mohan B. Chand, and Ram Avtar
The Cryosphere, 18, 711–717, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-711-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-711-2024, 2024
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In spite of enhanced technologies, many large cryospheric events remain unreported because of their remoteness, inaccessibility, or poor communications. In this Brief communication, we report on a large ice-debris avalanche that occurred sometime between 16 and 21 August 2022 in the Kanchenjunga Conservation Area (KCA), eastern Nepal.
Ivo Janos Fustos-Toribio, Bastian Morales-Vargas, Marcelo Somos-Valenzuela, Pablo Moreno-Yaeger, Ramiro Muñoz-Ramirez, Ines Rodriguez Araneda, and Ningsheng Chen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3015–3029, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3015-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3015-2021, 2021
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Links between debris flow and volcanic evolution are an open question in the southern Andes. We modelled the catastrophic debris flow using field data, a geotechnical approach and numerical modelling of the Petrohué event (Chile, 2017). Our results indicated new debris-flow-prone zones. Finally, we propose considering connections between volcanoes and debris flow in the southern Andes.
Alvaro Hofflinger, Marcelo A. Somos-Valenzuela, and Arturo Vallejos-Romero
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 251–267, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-251-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-251-2019, 2019
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In this work, we propose a novel methodology (ReTSVI) to integrate a social vulnerability index into flood hazard methodologies. ReTSVI combines a series of modules that are pieces of information that interact during an evacuation, such as evacuation rate curves, mobilization, inundation models, and social vulnerability indexes, to create an integrated map of the evacuation rate in a given location.
Bastian Morales, Marcelo Somos-Valenzuela, Mario Lillo, Iñigo Irarrazaval, David Farias, Elizabet Lizama, Diego Rivera, and Alfonso Fernández
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1053, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1053, 2024
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Through a physical model, we explored how lacier geometry and topography configuration constrains glacier thinning in the Patagonian Icefields, the world's main glacial freshwater reservoir after Antarctica and Greenland. Our results indicate that about 53 % of the Patagonian Icefield ice flow is susceptible to thinning. Our findings allow for identifying priority glaciers for future research considering climate change projections.
Alton C. Byers, Marcelo Somos-Valenzuela, Dan H. Shugar, Daniel McGrath, Mohan B. Chand, and Ram Avtar
The Cryosphere, 18, 711–717, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-711-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-711-2024, 2024
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In spite of enhanced technologies, many large cryospheric events remain unreported because of their remoteness, inaccessibility, or poor communications. In this Brief communication, we report on a large ice-debris avalanche that occurred sometime between 16 and 21 August 2022 in the Kanchenjunga Conservation Area (KCA), eastern Nepal.
Ivo Fustos-Toribio, Nataly Manque-Roa, Daniel Vásquez Antipan, Mauricio Hermosilla Sotomayor, and Viviana Letelier Gonzalez
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2169–2183, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2169-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2169-2022, 2022
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We develop for the first time a rainfall-induced landslide early warning system for the south of Chile. We used forecast precipitation values at different scales using mesoscale models to evaluate the probability of landslides using statistical models. We showed the feasibility of implementing these models in future, supporting stakeholders and decision-makers.
Ivo Janos Fustos-Toribio, Bastian Morales-Vargas, Marcelo Somos-Valenzuela, Pablo Moreno-Yaeger, Ramiro Muñoz-Ramirez, Ines Rodriguez Araneda, and Ningsheng Chen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3015–3029, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3015-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3015-2021, 2021
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Links between debris flow and volcanic evolution are an open question in the southern Andes. We modelled the catastrophic debris flow using field data, a geotechnical approach and numerical modelling of the Petrohué event (Chile, 2017). Our results indicated new debris-flow-prone zones. Finally, we propose considering connections between volcanoes and debris flow in the southern Andes.
Lu Zhuo, Qiang Dai, Dawei Han, Ningsheng Chen, and Binru Zhao
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 4199–4218, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-4199-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-4199-2019, 2019
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This study assesses the usability of WRF model-simulated soil moisture for landslide monitoring in northern Italy. In particular, three advanced land surface model schemes (Noah, Noah-MP, and CLM4) are used to provide multi-layer soil moisture data. The results have shown Noah-MP can provide the best landslide monitoring performance. It is also demonstrated that a single soil moisture sensor located in plain area has a high correlation with a significant proportion of the study area.
Alvaro Hofflinger, Marcelo A. Somos-Valenzuela, and Arturo Vallejos-Romero
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 251–267, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-251-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-251-2019, 2019
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In this work, we propose a novel methodology (ReTSVI) to integrate a social vulnerability index into flood hazard methodologies. ReTSVI combines a series of modules that are pieces of information that interact during an evacuation, such as evacuation rate curves, mobilization, inundation models, and social vulnerability indexes, to create an integrated map of the evacuation rate in a given location.
Mingfeng Deng, Yong Zhang, Mei Liu, Yuanhuan Wang, Wanyin Xie, and Ningsheng Chen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2017-390, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2017-390, 2017
Preprint withdrawn
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Research of the post-wildfire in Reneyong Valley shows: (1) the thresholds of post-fire debris flows was low and tend to increase as time passes; (2) reason for the post-fire debris flows with high frequency lies in an increase in soil water repellency, the soft geology, drainage area, channel gradient and regional arid climate; and (3) the varied rainfall thresholds (low in branch No. 3 and higher in branch No. 1 and No. 2) among the different branches are dependent on the drainage area.
Mingfeng Deng, Ningsheng Chen, and Mei Liu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 345–356, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-345-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-345-2017, 2017
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Annual air temperature spiked and glacier retreated shortly before the three periglacial debris flows in Tianmo valley. However, they did not occur when glacier retreat was sharpest, resulting from the frozen bared glacial till as the melting of internal ice lags behind glacial retreat. The activity of the glacial till can be enhanced by prolonged high air temperature. Finally, either rainfall or continuous percolation of ice ablation water flows can generate debris flow.
N. Sh. Chen, G. Sh. Hu, W. Deng, N. Khanal, Y. H. Zhu, and D. Han
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 13, 795–808, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-795-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-795-2013, 2013
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A coupled hydrological and hydrodynamic modeling approach for estimating rainfall thresholds of debris-flow occurrence
More than one landslide per road kilometer – surveying and modeling mass movements along the Rishikesh–Joshimath (NH-7) highway, Uttarakhand, India
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Temporal clustering of precipitation for detection of potential landslides
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Di Wu, Yuke Wang, and Xin Chen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4617–4630, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4617-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4617-2024, 2024
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Li Wei, Kaiheng Hu, Shuang Liu, Lan Ning, Xiaopeng Zhang, Qiyuan Zhang, and Md. Abdur Rahim
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4179–4197, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4179-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4179-2024, 2024
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The damage patterns of the buildings were classified into three types: (I) buried by primary debris flow, (II) inundated by secondary dam-burst flood, and (III) sequentially buried by debris flow and inundated by dam-burst flood. The threshold of the impact pressures in Zones (II) and (III) where vulnerability is equal to 1 is 84 kPa and 116 kPa, respectively. Heavy damage occurs at an impact pressure greater than 50 kPa, while slight damage occurs below 30 kPa.
Bo Peng and Xueling Wu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3991–4013, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3991-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3991-2024, 2024
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Our research enhances landslide prevention using advanced machine learning to forecast heavy-rainfall-triggered landslides. By analyzing regions and employing various models, we identified optimal ways to predict high-risk rainfall events. Integrating multiple factors and models, including a neural network, significantly improves landslide predictions. Real data validation confirms our approach's reliability, aiding communities in mitigating landslide impacts and safeguarding lives and property.
Andrea Manconi, Yves Bühler, Andreas Stoffel, Johan Gaume, Qiaoping Zhang, and Valentyn Tolpekin
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3833–3839, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3833-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3833-2024, 2024
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Our research reveals the power of high-resolution satellite synthetic-aperture radar (SAR) imagery for slope deformation monitoring. Using ICEYE data over the Brienz/Brinzauls instability, we measured surface velocity and mapped the landslide event with unprecedented precision. This underscores the potential of satellite SAR for timely hazard assessment in remote regions and aiding disaster mitigation efforts effectively.
Oliver Korup, Lisa V. Luna, and Joaquin V. Ferrer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3815–3832, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3815-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3815-2024, 2024
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Catalogues of mapped landslides are useful for learning and forecasting how frequently they occur in relation to their size. Yet, rare and large landslides remain mostly uncertain in statistical summaries of these catalogues. We propose a single, consistent method of comparing across different data sources and find that landslide statistics disclose more about subjective mapping choices than trigger types or environmental settings.
Rachael Lau, Carolina Seguí, Tyler Waterman, Nathaniel Chaney, and Manolis Veveakis
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3651–3661, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3651-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3651-2024, 2024
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This work examines the use of interferometric synthetic-aperture radar (InSAR) alongside in situ borehole measurements to assess the stability of deep-seated landslides for the case study of El Forn (Andorra). Comparing InSAR with borehole data suggests a key trade-off between accuracy and precision for various InSAR resolutions. Spatial interpolation with InSAR informed how many remote observations are necessary to lower error in a remote sensing re-creation of ground motion over the landslide.
Zhen Lei Wei, Yue Quan Shang, Qiu Hua Liang, and Xi Lin Xia
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3357–3379, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3357-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3357-2024, 2024
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The initiation of debris flows is significantly influenced by rainfall-induced hydrological processes. We propose a novel framework based on an integrated hydrological and hydrodynamic model and aimed at estimating intensity–duration (ID) rainfall thresholds responsible for triggering debris flows. In comparison to traditional statistical approaches, this physically based framework is particularly suitable for application in ungauged catchments where historical debris flow data are scarce.
Jürgen Mey, Ravi Kumar Guntu, Alexander Plakias, Igo Silva de Almeida, and Wolfgang Schwanghart
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3207–3223, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3207-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3207-2024, 2024
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The Himalayan road network links remote areas, but fragile terrain and poor construction lead to frequent landslides. This study on the NH-7 in India's Uttarakhand region analyzed 300 landslides after heavy rainfall in 2022 . Factors like slope, rainfall, rock type and road work influence landslides. The study's model predicts landslide locations for better road maintenance planning, highlighting the risk from climate change and increased road use.
Chenchen Qiu and Xueyu Geng
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-156, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-156, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
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We proposed an interated method with the combination of a physical vulnerability matric and a machine learning model to estimate the potential physical damage and associated economic loss caused by future debris flows based on the collected historical data on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau regions.
Fabiola Banfi, Emanuele Bevacqua, Pauline Rivoire, Sérgio C. Oliveira, Joaquim G. Pinto, Alexandre M. Ramos, and Carlo De Michele
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2689–2704, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2689-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2689-2024, 2024
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Landslides are complex phenomena causing important impacts in vulnerable areas, and they are often triggered by rainfall. Here, we develop a new approach that uses information on the temporal clustering of rainfall, i.e. multiple events close in time, to detect landslide events and compare it with the use of classical empirical rainfall thresholds, considering as a case study the region of Lisbon, Portugal. The results could help to improve the prediction of rainfall-triggered landslides.
Jianqi Zhuang, Jianbing Peng, Chenhui Du, Yi Zhu, and Jiaxu Kong
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2615–2631, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2615-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2615-2024, 2024
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The Revised Infinite Slope Model (RISM) is proposed using the equal differential unit method and correcting the deficiency of the safety factor increasing with the slope increasing when the slope is larger than 40°, as calculated using the Taylor slope infinite model. The intensity–duration (I–D) prediction curve of the rainfall-induced shallow loess landslides with different slopes was constructed and can be used in forecasting regional shallow loess landslides.
Alexander B. Prescott, Luke A. McGuire, Kwang-Sung Jun, Katherine R. Barnhart, and Nina S. Oakley
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2359–2374, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2359-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2359-2024, 2024
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Fire can dramatically increase the risk of debris flows to downstream communities with little warning, but hazard assessments have not traditionally included estimates of inundation. We unify models developed by the scientific community to create probabilistic estimates of inundation area in response to rainfall at forecast lead times (≥ 24 h) needed for decision-making. This work takes an initial step toward a near-real-time postfire debris-flow inundation hazard assessment product.
Francis K. Rengers, Samuel Bower, Andrew Knapp, Jason W. Kean, Danielle W. vonLembke, Matthew A. Thomas, Jaime Kostelnik, Katherine R. Barnhart, Matthew Bethel, Joseph E. Gartner, Madeline Hille, Dennis M. Staley, Justin K. Anderson, Elizabeth K. Roberts, Stephen B. DeLong, Belize Lane, Paxton Ridgway, and Brendan P. Murphy
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2093–2114, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2093-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2093-2024, 2024
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Every year the U.S. Geological Survey produces 50–100 postfire debris-flow hazard assessments using models for debris-flow likelihood and volume. To refine these models they must be tested with datasets that clearly document rainfall, debris-flow response, and debris-flow volume. These datasets are difficult to obtain, but this study developed and analyzed a postfire dataset with more than 100 postfire storm responses over a 2-year period. We also proposed ways to improve these models.
Jui-Ming Chang, Che-Ming Yang, Wei-An Chao, Chin-Shang Ku, Ming-Wan Huang, Tung-Chou Hsieh, and Chi-Yao Hung
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1267, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1267, 2024
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The study on the Cilan Landslide (CL) demonstrates the utilization of seismic analysis results as preliminary data for geologists during field surveys. Spectrograms revealed that the 1st event of CL consisted of 4 sliding failures, accompanied by a gradual reduction in landslide volume. The 2nd and 3rd events were minor topplings and rockfalls. Then combining the seismological-based knowledge and field survey results, the temporal-spatial variation of landslide evolution is proposed.
Jui-Sheng Chou, Hoang-Minh Nguyen, Huy-Phuong Phan, and Kuo-Lung Wang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-86, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-86, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
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This study enhances landslide prediction using advanced machine learning, including new algorithms inspired by historical explorations. The research accurately forecasts landslide movements by analyzing eight years of data from Taiwan's Lushan Mountain, improving early warnings and potentially saving lives and infrastructure. This integration marks a significant advancement in environmental risk management.
Praveen Kumar, Priyanka Priyanka, Kala Venkata Uday, and Varun Dutt
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1913–1928, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1913-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1913-2024, 2024
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Our study focuses on predicting soil movement to mitigate landslide risks. We develop machine learning models with oversampling techniques to address the class imbalance in monitoring data. The dynamic ensemble model with K-means SMOTE (synthetic minority oversampling technique) achieves high precision, high recall, and a high F1 score. Our findings highlight the potential of these models with oversampling techniques to improve soil movement predictions in landslide-prone areas.
Kristian Svennevig, Julian Koch, Marie Keiding, and Gregor Luetzenburg
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1897–1911, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1897-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1897-2024, 2024
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In our study, we analysed publicly available data in order to investigate the impact of climate change on landslides in Denmark. Our research indicates that the rising groundwater table due to climate change will result in an increase in landslide activity. Previous incidents of extremely wet winters have caused damage to infrastructure and buildings due to landslides. This study is the first of its kind to exclusively rely on public data and examine landslides in Denmark.
Christoph Schaller, Luuk Dorren, Massimiliano Schwarz, Christine Moos, Arie C. Seijmonsbergen, and E. Emiel van Loon
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-76, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-76, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
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We developed a machine learning-based approach to predict the potential thickness of shallow landslides to generate improved inputs for slope stability models. We selected 21 explanatory variables including metrics on terrain, geomorphology, vegetation height, and lithology and used data from two Swiss field inventories to calibrate and test the models. The best performing machine learning model consistently reduced the mean average error by least 17 % compared to previously existing models.
Jiao Wang, Zhangxing Wang, Guanhua Sun, and Hongming Luo
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1741–1756, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1741-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1741-2024, 2024
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With a simplified formula linking rainfall and groundwater level, the rise of the phreatic surface within the slope can be obtained. Then, a global analysis method that considers both seepage and seismic forces is proposed to determine the safety factor of slopes subjected to the combined effect of rainfall and earthquakes. By taking a slope in the Three Gorges Reservoir area as an example, the safety evolution of the slope combined with both rainfall and earthquake is also examined.
Carlo Tacconi Stefanelli, William Frodella, Francesco Caleca, Zhanar Raimbekova, Ruslan Umaraliev, and Veronica Tofani
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1697–1720, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1697-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1697-2024, 2024
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Central Asia regions are marked by active tectonics, high mountains with glaciers, and strong rainfall. These predisposing factors make large landslides a serious threat in the area and a source of possible damming scenarios, which endanger the population. To prevent this, a semi-automated geographic information system (GIS-)based mapping method, centered on a bivariate correlation of morphometric parameters, was applied to give preliminary information on damming susceptibility in Central Asia.
Benjamin B. Mirus, Thom A. Bogaard, Roberto Greco, and Manfred Stähli
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1219, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1219, 2024
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Early warning of increased landslide potential provides situational awareness to reduce landslide-related losses from major storm events. For decades, landslide forecasts relied on rainfall data alone, but recent research points to the value of hydrologic information for improving predictions. In this article, we provide our perspectives on the value and limitations of integrating subsurface hillslope hydrologic monitoring data and mathematical modeling for more accurate landslide forecasts.
Rex L. Baum, Dianne L. Brien, Mark E. Reid, William H. Schulz, and Matthew J. Tello
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1579–1605, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1579-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1579-2024, 2024
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We mapped potential for heavy rainfall to cause landslides in part of the central mountains of Puerto Rico using new tools for estimating soil depth and quasi-3D slope stability. Potential ground-failure locations correlate well with the spatial density of landslides from Hurricane Maria. The smooth boundaries of the very high and high ground-failure susceptibility zones enclose 75 % and 90 %, respectively, of observed landslides. The maps can help mitigate ground-failure hazards.
Katherine R. Barnhart, Christopher R. Miller, Francis K. Rengers, and Jason W. Kean
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1459–1483, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1459-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1459-2024, 2024
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Debris flows are a type of fast-moving landslide that start from shallow landslides or during intense rain. Infrastructure located downstream of watersheds susceptible to debris flows may be damaged should a debris flow reach them. We present and evaluate an approach to forecast building damage caused by debris flows. We test three alternative models for simulating the motion of debris flows and find that only one can forecast the correct number and spatial pattern of damaged buildings.
Luke A. McGuire, Francis K. Rengers, Ann M. Youberg, Alexander N. Gorr, Olivia J. Hoch, Rebecca Beers, and Ryan Porter
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1357–1379, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1357-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1357-2024, 2024
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Runoff and erosion increase after fire, leading to a greater likelihood of floods and debris flows. We monitored debris flow activity following a fire in western New Mexico, USA, and observed 16 debris flows over a <2-year monitoring period. Rainstorms with recurrence intervals of approximately 1 year were sufficient to initiate debris flows. All debris flows initiated during the first several months following the fire, indicating a rapid decrease in debris flow susceptibility over time.
Ken'ichi Koshimizu, Satoshi Ishimaru, Fumitoshi Imaizumi, and Gentaro Kawakami
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1287–1301, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1287-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1287-2024, 2024
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Morphological conditions of drainage basins that classify the presence or absence of debris flow fans were analyzed in areas with different rock strength using decision tree analysis. The relief ratio is the most important morphological factor regardless of the geology. However, the thresholds of morphological parameters needed for forming debris flow fans differ depending on the geology. Decision tree analysis is an effective tool for evaluating the debris flow risk for each geology.
Jonathan P. Perkins, Nina S. Oakley, Brian D. Collins, Skye C. Corbett, and W. Paul Burgess
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-873, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-873, 2024
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Landslides are a global issue that results in deaths and economic losses annually. However, it is not clear how storm severity relates to landslide severity across large regions. Here we develop a method to estimate the footprint of landslide area and compare this to meteorologic estimates of storm severity. We find that total storm strength does not clearly relate to landslide area. Rather, landslide area depends on soil wetness and smaller storm structures that can produce intense rainfall.
Daniel Bolliger, Fritz Schlunegger, and Brian W. McArdell
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1035–1049, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1035-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1035-2024, 2024
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We analysed data from the Illgraben debris flow monitoring station, Switzerland, and we modelled these flows with a debris flow runout model. We found that no correlation exists between the grain size distribution, the mineralogical composition of the matrix, and the debris flow properties. The flow properties rather appear to be determined by the flow volume, from which most other parameters can be derived.
Yuntao Zhou, Xiaoyan Zhao, Guangze Zhang, Bernd Wünnemann, Jiajia Zhang, and Minghui Meng
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 891–906, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-891-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-891-2024, 2024
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We developed three rock bridge models to analyze 3D stability and deformation behaviors of the Tizicao landslide and found that the contact surface model with high strength parameters combines advantages of the intact rock mass model in simulating the deformation of slopes with rock bridges and the modeling advantage of the Jennings model. The results help in choosing a rock bridge model to simulate landslide stability and reveal the influence laws of rock bridges on the stability of landslides.
Ashok Dahal, Hakan Tanyas, Cees van Westen, Mark van der Meijde, Paul Martin Mai, Raphaël Huser, and Luigi Lombardo
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 823–845, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-823-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-823-2024, 2024
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We propose a modeling approach capable of recognizing slopes that may generate landslides, as well as how large these mass movements may be. This protocol is implemented, tested, and validated with data that change in both space and time via an Ensemble Neural Network architecture.
Li-Ru Luo, Zhi-Xiang Yu, Li-Jun Zhang, Qi Wang, Lin-Xu Liao, and Li Peng
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 631–649, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-631-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-631-2024, 2024
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We performed field investigations on a rockfall near Jiguanshan National Forest Park, Chengdu. Vital information was obtained from an unmanned aerial vehicle survey. A finite element model was created to reproduce the damage evolution. We found that the impact kinetic energy was below the design protection energy. Improper member connections prevent the barrier from producing significant deformation to absorb energy. Damage is avoided by improving the ability of the nets and ropes to slide.
Marko Sinčić, Sanja Bernat Gazibara, Mauro Rossi, and Snježana Mihalić Arbanas
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-29, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-29, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
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The paper focuses on classifying continuous landslide conditioning factors for susceptibility modelling, which resulted in 54 landslide susceptibility models that tested 11 classification criteria in combination with five statistical methods. The novelty of the research is that using stretched landslide conditioning factor values results in models with higher accuracy and that certain statistical methods are more sensitive to the landslide conditioning factor classification criteria than others.
Sudhanshu Dixit, Srikrishnan Siva Subramanian, Piyush Srivastava, Ali P. Yunus, Tapas Ranjan Martha, and Sumit Sen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 465–480, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-465-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-465-2024, 2024
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Rainfall intensity–duration (ID) thresholds can aid in the prediction of natural hazards. Large-scale sediment disasters like landslides, debris flows, and flash floods happen frequently in the Himalayas because of their propensity for intense precipitation events. We provide a new framework that combines the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with a regionally distributed numerical model for debris flows to analyse and predict intense rainfall-induced landslides in the Himalayas.
Jacob B. Woodard, Benjamin B. Mirus, Nathan J. Wood, Kate E. Allstadt, Benjamin A. Leshchinsky, and Matthew M. Crawford
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1–12, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1-2024, 2024
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Dividing landscapes into hillslopes greatly improves predictions of landslide potential across landscapes, but their scaling is often arbitrarily set and can require significant computing power to delineate. Here, we present a new computer program that can efficiently divide landscapes into meaningful slope units scaled to best capture landslide processes. The results of this work will allow an improved understanding of landslide potential and can help reduce the impacts of landslides worldwide.
Anne Felsberg, Zdenko Heyvaert, Jean Poesen, Thomas Stanley, and Gabriëlle J. M. De Lannoy
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3805–3821, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3805-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3805-2023, 2023
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The Probabilistic Hydrological Estimation of LandSlides (PHELS) model combines ensembles of landslide susceptibility and of hydrological predictor variables to provide daily, global ensembles of hazard for hydrologically triggered landslides. Testing different hydrological predictors showed that the combination of rainfall and soil moisture performed best, with the lowest number of missed and false alarms. The ensemble approach allowed the estimation of the associated prediction uncertainty.
Mark Bloomberg, Tim Davies, Elena Moltchanova, Tom Robinson, and David Palmer
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2695, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2695, 2023
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Debris flows occur infrequently, with average recurrence intervals (ARIs) ranging from decades to millennia. Consequently, they pose an underappreciated hazard. We describe how to make a preliminary identification of debris flow-susceptible catchments, estimate threshold ARIs for debris flows which pose an unacceptable risk to life, and identify the "window of non-recognition" where debris flows are infrequent enough that their hazard is unrecognised, yet frequent enough to pose a risk to life.
Xushan Shi, Bo Chai, Juan Du, Wei Wang, and Bo Liu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3425–3443, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3425-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3425-2023, 2023
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A 3D stability analysis method is proposed for biased rockfall with external erosion. Four failure modes are considered according to rockfall evolution processes, including partial damage of underlying soft rock and overall failure of hard rock blocks. This method is validated with the biased rockfalls in the Sichuan Basin, China. The critical retreat ratio from low to moderate rockfall susceptibility is 0.33. This method could facilitate rockfall early identification and risk mitigation.
Marius Schneider, Nicolas Oestreicher, Thomas Ehrat, and Simon Loew
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3337–3354, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3337-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3337-2023, 2023
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Rockfalls and their hazards are typically treated as statistical events based on rockfall catalogs, but only a few complete rockfall inventories are available today. Here, we present new results from a Doppler radar rockfall alarm system, which has operated since 2018 at a high frequency under all illumination and weather conditions at a site where frequent rockfall events threaten a village and road. The new data set is used to investigate rockfall triggers in an active rockslide complex.
Annette I. Patton, Lisa V. Luna, Joshua J. Roering, Aaron Jacobs, Oliver Korup, and Benjamin B. Mirus
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3261–3284, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3261-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3261-2023, 2023
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Landslide warning systems often use statistical models to predict landslides based on rainfall. They are typically trained on large datasets with many landslide occurrences, but in rural areas large datasets may not exist. In this study, we evaluate which statistical model types are best suited to predicting landslides and demonstrate that even a small landslide inventory (five storms) can be used to train useful models for landslide early warning when non-landslide events are also included.
Sandra Melzner, Marco Conedera, Johannes Hübl, and Mauro Rossi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3079–3093, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3079-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3079-2023, 2023
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The estimation of the temporal frequency of the involved rockfall processes is an important part in hazard and risk assessments. Different methods can be used to collect and analyse rockfall data. From a statistical point of view, rockfall datasets are nearly always incomplete. Accurate data collection approaches and the application of statistical methods on existing rockfall data series as reported in this study should be better considered in rockfall hazard and risk assessments in the future.
Stefan Hergarten
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3051–3063, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3051-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3051-2023, 2023
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Rockslides are a major hazard in mountainous regions. In formerly glaciated regions, the disposition mainly arises from oversteepened topography and decreases through time. However, little is known about this decrease and thus about the present-day hazard of huge, potentially catastrophic rockslides. This paper presents a new theoretical framework that explains the decrease in maximum rockslide size through time and predicts the present-day frequency of large rockslides for the European Alps.
Colin K. Bloom, Corinne Singeisen, Timothy Stahl, Andrew Howell, Chris Massey, and Dougal Mason
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2987–3013, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2987-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2987-2023, 2023
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Landslides are often observed on coastlines following large earthquakes, but few studies have explored this occurrence. Here, statistical modelling of landslides triggered by the 2016 Kaikōura earthquake in New Zealand is used to investigate factors driving coastal earthquake-induced landslides. Geology, steep slopes, and shaking intensity are good predictors of landslides from the Kaikōura event. Steeper slopes close to the coast provide the best explanation for a high landslide density.
Yi-Min Huang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2649–2662, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2649-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2649-2023, 2023
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Debris flows are common hazards in Taiwan, and debris-flow early warning is important for disaster responses. The rainfall thresholds of debris flows are analyzed and determined in terms of rainfall intensity, accumulated rainfall, and rainfall duration, based on case histories in Taiwan. These thresholds are useful for disaster management, and the cases in Taiwan are useful for global debris-flow databases.
Davide Notti, Martina Cignetti, Danilo Godone, and Daniele Giordan
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2625–2648, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2625-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2625-2023, 2023
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We developed a cost-effective and user-friendly approach to map shallow landslides using free satellite data. Our methodology involves analysing the pre- and post-event NDVI variation to semi-automatically detect areas potentially affected by shallow landslides (PLs). Additionally, we have created Google Earth Engine scripts to rapidly compute NDVI differences and time series of affected areas. Datasets and codes are stored in an open data repository for improvement by the scientific community.
Simon Seelig, Thomas Wagner, Karl Krainer, Michael Avian, Marc Olefs, Klaus Haslinger, and Gerfried Winkler
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2547–2568, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2547-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2547-2023, 2023
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A rapid sequence of cascading events involving thermokarst lake outburst, rock glacier front failure, debris flow development, and river blockage hit an alpine valley in Austria during summer 2019. We analyze the environmental conditions initiating the process chain and identify the rapid evolution of a thermokarst channel network as the main driver. Our results highlight the need to account for permafrost degradation in debris flow hazard assessment studies.
Camilla Lanfranconi, Paolo Frattini, Gianluca Sala, Giuseppe Dattola, Davide Bertolo, Juanjuan Sun, and Giovanni Battista Crosta
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2349–2363, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2349-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2349-2023, 2023
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This paper presents a study on rockfall dynamics and hazard, examining the impact of the presence of trees along slope and block fragmentation. We compared rockfall simulations that explicitly model the presence of trees and fragmentation with a classical approach that accounts for these phenomena in model parameters (both the hazard and the kinetic energy change). We also used a non-parametric probabilistic rockfall hazard analysis method for hazard mapping.
Ascanio Rosi, William Frodella, Nicola Nocentini, Francesco Caleca, Hans Balder Havenith, Alexander Strom, Mirzo Saidov, Gany Amirgalievich Bimurzaev, and Veronica Tofani
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2229–2250, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2229-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2229-2023, 2023
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This work was carried out within the Strengthening Financial Resilience and Accelerating Risk Reduction in Central Asia (SFRARR) project and is focused on the first landslide susceptibility analysis at a regional scale for Central Asia. The most detailed available landslide inventories were implemented in a random forest model. The final aim was to provide a useful tool for reduction strategies to landslide scientists, practitioners, and administrators.
Francis K. Rengers, Luke A. McGuire, Katherine R. Barnhart, Ann M. Youberg, Daniel Cadol, Alexander N. Gorr, Olivia J. Hoch, Rebecca Beers, and Jason W. Kean
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2075–2088, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2075-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2075-2023, 2023
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Debris flows often occur after wildfires. These debris flows move water, sediment, and wood. The wood can get stuck in channels, creating a dam that holds boulders, cobbles, sand, and muddy material. We investigated how the channel width and wood length influenced how much sediment is stored. We also used a series of equations to back calculate the debris flow speed using the breaking threshold of wood. These data will help improve models and provide insight into future field investigations.
Maxime Morel, Guillaume Piton, Damien Kuss, Guillaume Evin, and Caroline Le Bouteiller
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1769–1787, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1769-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1769-2023, 2023
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In mountain catchments, damage during floods is generally primarily driven by the supply of a massive amount of sediment. Predicting how much sediment can be delivered by frequent and infrequent events is thus important in hazard studies. This paper uses data gathered during the maintenance operation of about 100 debris retention basins to build simple equations aiming at predicting sediment supply from simple parameters describing the upstream catchment.
Elsa S. Culler, Ben Livneh, Balaji Rajagopalan, and Kristy F. Tiampo
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1631–1652, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1631-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1631-2023, 2023
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Landslides have often been observed in the aftermath of wildfires. This study explores regional patterns in the rainfall that caused landslides both after fires and in unburned locations. In general, landslides that occur after fires are triggered by less rainfall, confirming that fire helps to set the stage for landslides. However, there are regional differences in the ways in which fire impacts landslides, such as the size and direction of shifts in the seasonality of landslides after fires.
Stefan Steger, Mateo Moreno, Alice Crespi, Peter James Zellner, Stefano Luigi Gariano, Maria Teresa Brunetti, Massimo Melillo, Silvia Peruccacci, Francesco Marra, Robin Kohrs, Jason Goetz, Volkmar Mair, and Massimiliano Pittore
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1483–1506, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1483-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1483-2023, 2023
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We present a novel data-driven modelling approach to determine season-specific critical precipitation conditions for landslide occurrence. It is shown that the amount of precipitation required to trigger a landslide in South Tyrol varies from season to season. In summer, a higher amount of preparatory precipitation is required to trigger a landslide, probably due to denser vegetation and higher temperatures. We derive dynamic thresholds that directly relate to hit rates and false-alarm rates.
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Short summary
This work presents a study of the biggest mudflow event in 20 years in Chilean Patagonia, which resulted from an avalanche in the Cordon Yelcho. We integrate in situ geotechnical tests and numerical modeling to model the Villa Santa Lucía mudflow event. Our results suggest that the initial soil water content is sufficient to transform the landslide and scoured soil into a mudflow. Therefore, knowing the soil characteristics is crucial to evaluating the impact of landslides in the study area.
This work presents a study of the biggest mudflow event in 20 years in Chilean Patagonia, which...
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