Articles | Volume 20, issue 8
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2319-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2319-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
26 Aug 2020
Research article |
| 26 Aug 2020
| 26 Aug 2020
The mudflow disaster at Villa Santa Lucía in Chilean Patagonia: understandings and insights derived from numerical simulation and postevent field surveys
Marcelo A. Somos-Valenzuela
Department of Forest Sciences, Faculty of Agriculture and Forest
Sciences, Universidad de La Frontera, Av. Francisco Salazar 01145, Temuco,
4780000, Chile
Butamallin Research Center for Global Change, Universidad de La Frontera, Av. Francisco Salazar 01145, Temuco, 4780000, Chile
Joaquín E. Oyarzún-Ulloa
Department of Civil Engineering, Universidad de La Frontera, Av. Francisco Salazar 01145, Temuco, 4780000, Chile
Ivo J. Fustos-Toribio
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Department of Civil Engineering, Universidad de La Frontera, Av. Francisco Salazar 01145, Temuco, 4780000, Chile
Natalia Garrido-Urzua
Servicio Nacional de Geologia y Mineria, Av. La Paz 406, Puerto
Varas, Región de los Lagos, 5550000, Chile
Ningsheng Chen
Key Laboratory of Mountain Hazards and Earth Surface Processes, Institute of Mountain Hazards and Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Chengdu 610041, China
Related authors
Alton C. Byers, Marcelo Somos-Valenzuela, Dan H. Shugar, Daniel McGrath, Mohan B. Chand, and Ram Avtar
The Cryosphere, 18, 711–717, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-711-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-711-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In spite of enhanced technologies, many large cryospheric events remain unreported because of their remoteness, inaccessibility, or poor communications. In this Brief communication, we report on a large ice-debris avalanche that occurred sometime between 16 and 21 August 2022 in the Kanchenjunga Conservation Area (KCA), eastern Nepal.
Ivo Janos Fustos-Toribio, Bastian Morales-Vargas, Marcelo Somos-Valenzuela, Pablo Moreno-Yaeger, Ramiro Muñoz-Ramirez, Ines Rodriguez Araneda, and Ningsheng Chen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3015–3029, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3015-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3015-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Links between debris flow and volcanic evolution are an open question in the southern Andes. We modelled the catastrophic debris flow using field data, a geotechnical approach and numerical modelling of the Petrohué event (Chile, 2017). Our results indicated new debris-flow-prone zones. Finally, we propose considering connections between volcanoes and debris flow in the southern Andes.
Alvaro Hofflinger, Marcelo A. Somos-Valenzuela, and Arturo Vallejos-Romero
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 251–267, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-251-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-251-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
In this work, we propose a novel methodology (ReTSVI) to integrate a social vulnerability index into flood hazard methodologies. ReTSVI combines a series of modules that are pieces of information that interact during an evacuation, such as evacuation rate curves, mobilization, inundation models, and social vulnerability indexes, to create an integrated map of the evacuation rate in a given location.
Alton C. Byers, Marcelo Somos-Valenzuela, Dan H. Shugar, Daniel McGrath, Mohan B. Chand, and Ram Avtar
The Cryosphere, 18, 711–717, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-711-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-711-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In spite of enhanced technologies, many large cryospheric events remain unreported because of their remoteness, inaccessibility, or poor communications. In this Brief communication, we report on a large ice-debris avalanche that occurred sometime between 16 and 21 August 2022 in the Kanchenjunga Conservation Area (KCA), eastern Nepal.
Ivo Fustos-Toribio, Nataly Manque-Roa, Daniel Vásquez Antipan, Mauricio Hermosilla Sotomayor, and Viviana Letelier Gonzalez
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2169–2183, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2169-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2169-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We develop for the first time a rainfall-induced landslide early warning system for the south of Chile. We used forecast precipitation values at different scales using mesoscale models to evaluate the probability of landslides using statistical models. We showed the feasibility of implementing these models in future, supporting stakeholders and decision-makers.
Ivo Janos Fustos-Toribio, Bastian Morales-Vargas, Marcelo Somos-Valenzuela, Pablo Moreno-Yaeger, Ramiro Muñoz-Ramirez, Ines Rodriguez Araneda, and Ningsheng Chen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3015–3029, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3015-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3015-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Links between debris flow and volcanic evolution are an open question in the southern Andes. We modelled the catastrophic debris flow using field data, a geotechnical approach and numerical modelling of the Petrohué event (Chile, 2017). Our results indicated new debris-flow-prone zones. Finally, we propose considering connections between volcanoes and debris flow in the southern Andes.
Lu Zhuo, Qiang Dai, Dawei Han, Ningsheng Chen, and Binru Zhao
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 4199–4218, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-4199-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-4199-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
This study assesses the usability of WRF model-simulated soil moisture for landslide monitoring in northern Italy. In particular, three advanced land surface model schemes (Noah, Noah-MP, and CLM4) are used to provide multi-layer soil moisture data. The results have shown Noah-MP can provide the best landslide monitoring performance. It is also demonstrated that a single soil moisture sensor located in plain area has a high correlation with a significant proportion of the study area.
Alvaro Hofflinger, Marcelo A. Somos-Valenzuela, and Arturo Vallejos-Romero
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 251–267, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-251-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-251-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
In this work, we propose a novel methodology (ReTSVI) to integrate a social vulnerability index into flood hazard methodologies. ReTSVI combines a series of modules that are pieces of information that interact during an evacuation, such as evacuation rate curves, mobilization, inundation models, and social vulnerability indexes, to create an integrated map of the evacuation rate in a given location.
Mingfeng Deng, Yong Zhang, Mei Liu, Yuanhuan Wang, Wanyin Xie, and Ningsheng Chen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2017-390, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2017-390, 2017
Preprint withdrawn
Short summary
Short summary
Research of the post-wildfire in Reneyong Valley shows: (1) the thresholds of post-fire debris flows was low and tend to increase as time passes; (2) reason for the post-fire debris flows with high frequency lies in an increase in soil water repellency, the soft geology, drainage area, channel gradient and regional arid climate; and (3) the varied rainfall thresholds (low in branch No. 3 and higher in branch No. 1 and No. 2) among the different branches are dependent on the drainage area.
Mingfeng Deng, Ningsheng Chen, and Mei Liu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 345–356, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-345-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-345-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Annual air temperature spiked and glacier retreated shortly before the three periglacial debris flows in Tianmo valley. However, they did not occur when glacier retreat was sharpest, resulting from the frozen bared glacial till as the melting of internal ice lags behind glacial retreat. The activity of the glacial till can be enhanced by prolonged high air temperature. Finally, either rainfall or continuous percolation of ice ablation water flows can generate debris flow.
N. Sh. Chen, G. Sh. Hu, W. Deng, N. Khanal, Y. H. Zhu, and D. Han
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 13, 795–808, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-795-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-795-2013, 2013
Related subject area
Landslides and Debris Flows Hazards
Numerical-model-derived intensity–duration thresholds for early warning of rainfall-induced debris flows in a Himalayan catchment
Slope Unit Maker (SUMak): an efficient and parameter-free algorithm for delineating slope units to improve landslide modeling
Probabilistic Hydrological Estimation of LandSlides (PHELS): global ensemble landslide hazard modelling
A new analytical method for stability analysis of rock blocks with basal erosion in sub-horizontal strata by considering the eccentricity effect
Rockfall monitoring with a Doppler radar on an active rockslide complex in Brienz/Brinzauls (Switzerland)
Landslide initiation thresholds in data-sparse regions: application to landslide early warning criteria in Sitka, Alaska, USA
Lessons learnt from a rockfall time series analysis: data collection, statistical analysis, and applications
Modelling debris flow runout considering grain size distributions of debris flows at the Illgraben, Swiss Alps
The concept of event-size-dependent exhaustion and its application to paraglacial rockslides
Coastal earthquake-induced landslide susceptibility during the 2016 Mw 7.8 Kaikōura earthquake, New Zealand
Characteristics of debris flow prone watersheds and triggering rainstorms following the Tadpole Fire, New Mexico, USA
Characteristics of debris flows recorded in the Shenmu area of central Taiwan between 2004 and 2021
Optimization strategy for flexible barrier structures: Investigation and back analysis of a rockfall disaster case in southwestern China
Semi-automatic mapping of shallow landslides using free Sentinel-2 images and Google Earth Engine
The role of thermokarst evolution in debris flow initiation (Hüttekar Rock Glacier, Austrian Alps)
Accounting for the effect of forest and fragmentation in probabilistic rockfall hazard
Comprehensive landslide susceptibility map of Central Asia
The influence of large woody debris on post-wildfire debris flow sediment storage
Statistical modeling of sediment supply in torrent catchments of the northern French Alps
A data-driven evaluation of post-fire landslide susceptibility
Deciphering seasonal effects of triggering and preparatory precipitation for improved shallow landslide prediction using generalized additive mixed models
Brief communication: The northwest Himalaya towns slipping towards potential disaster
Space-time landslide hazard modeling via Ensemble Neural Networks
Dynamic response and breakage of trees subject to a landslide-induced air blast
Debris-flow surges of a very active alpine torrent: a field database
Rainfall thresholds estimation for shallow landslides in Peru from gridded daily data
Instantaneous limit equilibrium back analyses of major rockslides triggered during the 2016–2017 central Italy seismic sequence
Deadly disasters in southeastern South America: flash floods and landslides of February 2022 in Petrópolis, Rio de Janeiro
Multi-event assessment of typhoon-triggered landslide susceptibility in the Philippines
Antecedent rainfall as a critical factor for the triggering of debris flows in arid regions
Sensitivity analysis of a built environment exposed to the synthetic monophasic viscous debris flow impacts with 3-D numerical simulations
Simulation analysis of 3D stability of a landslide with a locking segment: A case study of Tizicao landslide in Maoxian County, Southwest China
Characteristics and causes of natural and human-induced landslides in a tropical mountainous region: the rift flank west of Lake Kivu (Democratic Republic of the Congo)
Spatio-temporal analysis of slope-type debris flow activity in Horlachtal, Austria, based on orthophotos and lidar data since 1947
Assessing the relationship between weather conditions and rockfall using terrestrial laser scanning to improve risk management
Using principal component analysis to incorporate multi-layer soil moisture information in hydrometeorological thresholds for landslide prediction: an investigation based on ERA5-Land reanalysis data
Assessing uncertainties in landslide susceptibility predictions in a changing environment (Styrian Basin, Austria)
Brief communication: An autonomous UAV for catchment-wide monitoring of a debris flow torrent
How volcanic stratigraphy constrains headscarp collapse scenarios: the Samperre cliff case study (Martinique island, Lesser Antilles)
Landslide susceptibility assessment in the rocky coast subsystem of Essaouira, Morocco
Landsifier v1.0: a Python library to estimate likely triggers of mapped landslides
Timing landslide and flash flood events from SAR satellite: a regionally applicable methodology illustrated in African cloud-covered tropical environments
Potential of satellite-derived hydro-meteorological information for landslide initiation thresholds in Rwanda
Earthquake-induced landslides in Haiti: analysis of seismotectonic and possible climatic influences
Pre-collapse motion of the February 2021 Chamoli rock–ice avalanche, Indian Himalaya
Physically based modeling of co-seismic landslide, debris flow, and flood cascade
Finite-hillslope analysis of landslides triggered by excess pore water pressure: the roles of atmospheric pressure and rainfall infiltration during typhoons
Estimating global landslide susceptibility and its uncertainty through ensemble modeling
Terrain visibility impact on the preparation of landslide inventories: a practical example in Darjeeling district (India)
Using Sentinel-1 radar amplitude time series to constrain the timings of individual landslides: a step towards understanding the controls on monsoon-triggered landsliding
Sudhanshu Dixit, Srikrishnan Siva Subramanian, Piyush Srivastava, Ali P. Yunus, Tapas Ranjan Martha, and Sumit Sen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 465–480, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-465-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-465-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Rainfall intensity–duration (ID) thresholds can aid in the prediction of natural hazards. Large-scale sediment disasters like landslides, debris flows, and flash floods happen frequently in the Himalayas because of their propensity for intense precipitation events. We provide a new framework that combines the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with a regionally distributed numerical model for debris flows to analyse and predict intense rainfall-induced landslides in the Himalayas.
Jacob B. Woodard, Benjamin B. Mirus, Nathan J. Wood, Kate E. Allstadt, Benjamin A. Leshchinsky, and Matthew M. Crawford
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1–12, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Dividing landscapes into hillslopes greatly improves predictions of landslide potential across landscapes, but their scaling is often arbitrarily set and can require significant computing power to delineate. Here, we present a new computer program that can efficiently divide landscapes into meaningful slope units scaled to best capture landslide processes. The results of this work will allow an improved understanding of landslide potential and can help reduce the impacts of landslides worldwide.
Anne Felsberg, Zdenko Heyvaert, Jean Poesen, Thomas Stanley, and Gabriëlle J. M. De Lannoy
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3805–3821, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3805-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3805-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The Probabilistic Hydrological Estimation of LandSlides (PHELS) model combines ensembles of landslide susceptibility and of hydrological predictor variables to provide daily, global ensembles of hazard for hydrologically triggered landslides. Testing different hydrological predictors showed that the combination of rainfall and soil moisture performed best, with the lowest number of missed and false alarms. The ensemble approach allowed the estimation of the associated prediction uncertainty.
Xushan Shi, Bo Chai, Juan Du, Wei Wang, and Bo Liu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3425–3443, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3425-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3425-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
A 3D stability analysis method is proposed for biased rockfall with external erosion. Four failure modes are considered according to rockfall evolution processes, including partial damage of underlying soft rock and overall failure of hard rock blocks. This method is validated with the biased rockfalls in the Sichuan Basin, China. The critical retreat ratio from low to moderate rockfall susceptibility is 0.33. This method could facilitate rockfall early identification and risk mitigation.
Marius Schneider, Nicolas Oestreicher, Thomas Ehrat, and Simon Loew
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3337–3354, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3337-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3337-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Rockfalls and their hazards are typically treated as statistical events based on rockfall catalogs, but only a few complete rockfall inventories are available today. Here, we present new results from a Doppler radar rockfall alarm system, which has operated since 2018 at a high frequency under all illumination and weather conditions at a site where frequent rockfall events threaten a village and road. The new data set is used to investigate rockfall triggers in an active rockslide complex.
Annette I. Patton, Lisa V. Luna, Joshua J. Roering, Aaron Jacobs, Oliver Korup, and Benjamin B. Mirus
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3261–3284, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3261-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3261-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Landslide warning systems often use statistical models to predict landslides based on rainfall. They are typically trained on large datasets with many landslide occurrences, but in rural areas large datasets may not exist. In this study, we evaluate which statistical model types are best suited to predicting landslides and demonstrate that even a small landslide inventory (five storms) can be used to train useful models for landslide early warning when non-landslide events are also included.
Sandra Melzner, Marco Conedera, Johannes Hübl, and Mauro Rossi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3079–3093, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3079-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3079-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The estimation of the temporal frequency of the involved rockfall processes is an important part in hazard and risk assessments. Different methods can be used to collect and analyse rockfall data. From a statistical point of view, rockfall datasets are nearly always incomplete. Accurate data collection approaches and the application of statistical methods on existing rockfall data series as reported in this study should be better considered in rockfall hazard and risk assessments in the future.
Daniel Bolliger, Fritz Schlunegger, and Brian W. McArdell
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-126, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-126, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
We analyzed data from the Illgraben debris flow monitoring station, Switzerland, and we modelled these flows with a debris flow runout model. We found that no correlation exists between the grain size distribution, the mineralogical composition of the matrix, and the debris flow properties. Rather, the flow properties appear to be determined by the flow volume, from which most other parameters can be derived.
Stefan Hergarten
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3051–3063, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3051-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3051-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Rockslides are a major hazard in mountainous regions. In formerly glaciated regions, the disposition mainly arises from oversteepened topography and decreases through time. However, little is known about this decrease and thus about the present-day hazard of huge, potentially catastrophic rockslides. This paper presents a new theoretical framework that explains the decrease in maximum rockslide size through time and predicts the present-day frequency of large rockslides for the European Alps.
Colin K. Bloom, Corinne Singeisen, Timothy Stahl, Andrew Howell, Chris Massey, and Dougal Mason
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2987–3013, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2987-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2987-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Landslides are often observed on coastlines following large earthquakes, but few studies have explored this occurrence. Here, statistical modelling of landslides triggered by the 2016 Kaikōura earthquake in New Zealand is used to investigate factors driving coastal earthquake-induced landslides. Geology, steep slopes, and shaking intensity are good predictors of landslides from the Kaikōura event. Steeper slopes close to the coast provide the best explanation for a high landslide density.
Luke A. McGuire, Francis K. Rengers, Ann M. Youberg, Alexander N. Gorr, Olivia J. Hoch, Rebecca Beers, and Ryan Porter
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1672, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1672, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Runoff and erosion increase after fire, leading to a greater likelihood of floods and debris flows. We monitored debris flow activity following a fire in western New Mexico, USA, and observed 16 debris flows over a 2+ year monitoring period. Rainstorms with recurrence intervals of approximately 1 year were sufficient to initiate debris flows. All debris flows initiated during the first several months following the fire, indicating a rapid decrease in debris flow susceptibility over time.
Yi-Min Huang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2649–2662, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2649-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2649-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Debris flows are common hazards in Taiwan, and debris-flow early warning is important for disaster responses. The rainfall thresholds of debris flows are analyzed and determined in terms of rainfall intensity, accumulated rainfall, and rainfall duration, based on case histories in Taiwan. These thresholds are useful for disaster management, and the cases in Taiwan are useful for global debris-flow databases.
Li-Ru Luo, Zhi-Xiang Yu, Qi Wang, Li-Jun Zhang, Lin-Xu Liao, and Li Peng
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-136, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-136, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
Field investigations were done on a rockfall near Jiguanshan National Forest Park, Chengdu. Vital information was presumed from UAV survey. A FEM model, including the barrier and rocks, was created to reproduce the damage evolution. It was found that the impact kinetic energy was below the design protection energy. The improper member connections prevent the barrier from producing significant deformation to absorb energy. Damages are avoided by improving the nets’ and ropes’ ability to slide.
Davide Notti, Martina Cignetti, Danilo Godone, and Daniele Giordan
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2625–2648, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2625-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2625-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We developed a cost-effective and user-friendly approach to map shallow landslides using free satellite data. Our methodology involves analysing the pre- and post-event NDVI variation to semi-automatically detect areas potentially affected by shallow landslides (PLs). Additionally, we have created Google Earth Engine scripts to rapidly compute NDVI differences and time series of affected areas. Datasets and codes are stored in an open data repository for improvement by the scientific community.
Simon Seelig, Thomas Wagner, Karl Krainer, Michael Avian, Marc Olefs, Klaus Haslinger, and Gerfried Winkler
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2547–2568, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2547-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2547-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
A rapid sequence of cascading events involving thermokarst lake outburst, rock glacier front failure, debris flow development, and river blockage hit an alpine valley in Austria during summer 2019. We analyze the environmental conditions initiating the process chain and identify the rapid evolution of a thermokarst channel network as the main driver. Our results highlight the need to account for permafrost degradation in debris flow hazard assessment studies.
Camilla Lanfranconi, Paolo Frattini, Gianluca Sala, Giuseppe Dattola, Davide Bertolo, Juanjuan Sun, and Giovanni Battista Crosta
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2349–2363, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2349-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2349-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This paper presents a study on rockfall dynamics and hazard, examining the impact of the presence of trees along slope and block fragmentation. We compared rockfall simulations that explicitly model the presence of trees and fragmentation with a classical approach that accounts for these phenomena in model parameters (both the hazard and the kinetic energy change). We also used a non-parametric probabilistic rockfall hazard analysis method for hazard mapping.
Ascanio Rosi, William Frodella, Nicola Nocentini, Francesco Caleca, Hans Balder Havenith, Alexander Strom, Mirzo Saidov, Gany Amirgalievich Bimurzaev, and Veronica Tofani
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2229–2250, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2229-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2229-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This work was carried out within the Strengthening Financial Resilience and Accelerating Risk Reduction in Central Asia (SFRARR) project and is focused on the first landslide susceptibility analysis at a regional scale for Central Asia. The most detailed available landslide inventories were implemented in a random forest model. The final aim was to provide a useful tool for reduction strategies to landslide scientists, practitioners, and administrators.
Francis K. Rengers, Luke A. McGuire, Katherine R. Barnhart, Ann M. Youberg, Daniel Cadol, Alexander N. Gorr, Olivia J. Hoch, Rebecca Beers, and Jason W. Kean
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2075–2088, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2075-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2075-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Debris flows often occur after wildfires. These debris flows move water, sediment, and wood. The wood can get stuck in channels, creating a dam that holds boulders, cobbles, sand, and muddy material. We investigated how the channel width and wood length influenced how much sediment is stored. We also used a series of equations to back calculate the debris flow speed using the breaking threshold of wood. These data will help improve models and provide insight into future field investigations.
Maxime Morel, Guillaume Piton, Damien Kuss, Guillaume Evin, and Caroline Le Bouteiller
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1769–1787, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1769-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1769-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In mountain catchments, damage during floods is generally primarily driven by the supply of a massive amount of sediment. Predicting how much sediment can be delivered by frequent and infrequent events is thus important in hazard studies. This paper uses data gathered during the maintenance operation of about 100 debris retention basins to build simple equations aiming at predicting sediment supply from simple parameters describing the upstream catchment.
Elsa S. Culler, Ben Livneh, Balaji Rajagopalan, and Kristy F. Tiampo
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1631–1652, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1631-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1631-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Landslides have often been observed in the aftermath of wildfires. This study explores regional patterns in the rainfall that caused landslides both after fires and in unburned locations. In general, landslides that occur after fires are triggered by less rainfall, confirming that fire helps to set the stage for landslides. However, there are regional differences in the ways in which fire impacts landslides, such as the size and direction of shifts in the seasonality of landslides after fires.
Stefan Steger, Mateo Moreno, Alice Crespi, Peter James Zellner, Stefano Luigi Gariano, Maria Teresa Brunetti, Massimo Melillo, Silvia Peruccacci, Francesco Marra, Robin Kohrs, Jason Goetz, Volkmar Mair, and Massimiliano Pittore
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1483–1506, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1483-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1483-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We present a novel data-driven modelling approach to determine season-specific critical precipitation conditions for landslide occurrence. It is shown that the amount of precipitation required to trigger a landslide in South Tyrol varies from season to season. In summer, a higher amount of preparatory precipitation is required to trigger a landslide, probably due to denser vegetation and higher temperatures. We derive dynamic thresholds that directly relate to hit rates and false-alarm rates.
Yaspal Sundriyal, Vipin Kumar, Neha Chauhan, Sameeksha Kaushik, Rahul Ranjan, and Mohit Kumar Punia
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1425–1431, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1425-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1425-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The NW Himalaya has been one of the most affected terrains of the Himalaya, subject to disastrous landslides. This article focuses on two towns (Joshimath and Bhatwari) of the NW Himalaya, which have been witnessing subsidence for decades. We used a slope stability simulation to determine the response of the hillslopes accommodating these towns under various loading conditions. We found that the maximum displacement in these hillslopes might reach up to 20–25 m.
Ashok Dahal, Hakan Tanyas, Cees van Westen, Mark van der Meijde, Paul Martin Mai, Raphaël Huser, and Luigi Lombardo
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.31223/X5B075, https://doi.org/10.31223/X5B075, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We propose a modelling approach capable of recognizing slopes that may generate landslides as well as how large these mass movements may be. This protocol is implemented, tested and validated with data that change both in space and in time via an Ensemble Neural Network architecture.
Yu Zhuang, Aiguo Xing, Perry Bartelt, Muhammad Bilal, and Zhaowei Ding
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1257–1266, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1257-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1257-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Tree destruction is often used to back calculate the air blast impact region and to estimate the air blast power. Here we established a novel model to assess air blast power using tree destruction information. We find that the dynamic magnification effect makes the trees easier to damage by a landslide-induced air blast, but the large tree deformation would weaken the effect. Bending and overturning are two likely failure modes, which depend heavily on the properties of trees.
Suzanne Lapillonne, Firmin Fontaine, Frédéric Liebault, Vincent Richefeu, and Guillaume Piton
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1241–1256, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1241-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1241-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Debris flows are fast flows most often found in torrential watersheds. They are composed of two phases: a liquid phase which can be mud-like and a granular phase, including large boulders, transported along with the flow. Due to their destructive nature, accessing features of the flow, such as velocity and flow height, is difficult. We present a protocol to analyse debris flow data and results of the Réal torrent in France. These results will help experts in designing models.
Carlos Millán-Arancibia and Waldo Lavado-Casimiro
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1191–1206, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1191-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1191-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This study is the first approximation of regional rainfall thresholds for shallow landslide occurrence in Peru. This research was generated from a gridded precipitation data and landslide inventory. The analysis showed that the threshold based on the combination of mean daily intensity–duration variables gives the best results for separating rainfall events that generate landslides. Through this work the potential of thresholds for landslide monitoring at the regional scale is demonstrated.
Luca Verrucci, Giovanni Forte, Melania De Falco, Paolo Tommasi, Giuseppe Lanzo, Kevin W. Franke, and Antonio Santo
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1177–1190, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1177-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1177-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Stability analyses in static and seismic conditions were performed on four rockslides that occurred during the main shocks of the 2016–2017 central Italy seismic sequence. These results also indicate that specific structural features of the slope must carefully be accounted for in evaluating potential hazards on transportation infrastructures in mountainous regions.
Enner Alcântara, José A. Marengo, José Mantovani, Luciana R. Londe, Rachel Lau Yu San, Edward Park, Yunung Nina Lin, Jingyu Wang, Tatiana Mendes, Ana Paula Cunha, Luana Pampuch, Marcelo Seluchi, Silvio Simões, Luz Adriana Cuartas, Demerval Goncalves, Klécia Massi, Regina Alvalá, Osvaldo Moraes, Carlos Souza Filho, Rodolfo Mendes, and Carlos Nobre
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1157–1175, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1157-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1157-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The municipality of Petrópolis (approximately 305 687 inhabitants) is nestled in the mountains 68 km outside the city of Rio de Janeiro. On 15 February 2022, the city of Petrópolis in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, received an unusually high volume of rain within 3 h (258 mm). This resulted in flash floods and subsequent landslides that caused 231 fatalities, the deadliest landslide disaster recorded in Petrópolis. This work shows how the disaster was triggered.
Joshua N. Jones, Georgina L. Bennett, Claudia Abancó, Mark A. M. Matera, and Fibor J. Tan
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1095–1115, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1095-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1095-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We modelled where landslides occur in the Philippines using landslide data from three typhoon events in 2009, 2018, and 2019. These models show where landslides occurred within the landscape. By comparing the different models, we found that the 2019 landslides were occurring all across the landscape, whereas the 2009 and 2018 landslides were mostly occurring at specific slope angles and aspects. This shows that landslide susceptibility must be considered variable through space and time.
Shalev Siman-Tov and Francesco Marra
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1079–1093, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1079-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1079-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Debris flows represent a threat to infrastructure and the population. In arid areas, they are observed when heavy rainfall hits steep slopes with sediments. Here, we use digital surface models and radar rainfall data to detect and characterize the triggering and non-triggering rainfall conditions. We find that rainfall intensity alone is insufficient to explain the triggering. We suggest that antecedent rainfall could represent a critical factor for debris flow triggering in arid regions.
Xun Huang, Zhijian Zhang, and Guoping Xiang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 871–889, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-871-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-871-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
A sensitivity analysis on the building impact force resulting from the representative built environment parameters is executed through the FLOW-3D model. The surrounding buildings' properties, especially the azimuthal angle, have been confirmed to play significant roles in determining the peak impact forces. The single and combined effects of built environments are analyzed in detail. This will improve understanding of vulnerability assessment and migration design against debris flow hazards.
Yuntao Zhou, Xiaoyan Zhao, Guangze Zhang, Bernd Wünnemann, Jiajia Zhang, and Minghui Meng
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-28, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-28, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We developed three rock bridge models to analyze 3D stability and deformation behaviors of the Tizicao landslide. We found that the CSM-HSP combines the advantages of the IRMM model in simulating the actual deformation of slopes with rock bridges and the modeling advantage of the JM model. The research results are helpful to choose an appropriate rock bridge model to simulate the 3D landslide stability and to reveal the influence laws of rock bridges on the 3D stability of landslides.
Jean-Claude Maki Mateso, Charles L. Bielders, Elise Monsieurs, Arthur Depicker, Benoît Smets, Théophile Tambala, Luc Bagalwa Mateso, and Olivier Dewitte
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 643–666, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-643-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-643-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This research highlights the importance of human activities on the occurrence of landslides and the need to consider this context when studying hillslope instability patterns in regions under anthropogenic pressure. Also, this study highlights the importance of considering the timing of landslides and hence the added value of using historical information for compiling an inventory.
Jakob Rom, Florian Haas, Tobias Heckmann, Moritz Altmann, Fabian Fleischer, Camillo Ressl, Sarah Betz-Nutz, and Michael Becht
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 601–622, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-601-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-601-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, an area-wide slope-type debris flow record has been established for Horlachtal, Austria, since 1947 based on historical and recent remote sensing data. Spatial and temporal analyses show variations in debris flow activity in space and time in a high-alpine region. The results can contribute to a better understanding of past slope-type debris flow dynamics in the context of extreme precipitation events and their possible future development.
Tom Birien and Francis Gauthier
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 343–360, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-343-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-343-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
On highly fractured rockwalls such as those found in northern Gaspésie, most rockfalls are triggered by weather conditions. This study highlights that in winter, rockfall frequency is 12 times higher during a superficial thaw than during a cold period in which temperature remains below 0 °C. In summer, rockfall frequency is 22 times higher during a heavy rainfall event than during a mainly dry period. This knowledge could be used to implement a risk management strategy.
Nunziarita Palazzolo, David J. Peres, Enrico Creaco, and Antonino Cancelliere
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 279–291, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-279-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-279-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We propose an approach exploiting PCA to derive hydrometeorological landslide-triggering thresholds using multi-layered soil moisture data from ERA5-Land reanalysis. Comparison of thresholds based on single- and multi-layered soil moisture information provides a means to identify the significance of multi-layered data for landslide triggering in a region. In Sicily, the proposed approach yields thresholds with a higher performance than traditional precipitation-based ones (TSS = 0.71 vs. 0.50).
Raphael Knevels, Helene Petschko, Herwig Proske, Philip Leopold, Aditya N. Mishra, Douglas Maraun, and Alexander Brenning
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 205–229, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-205-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-205-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In summer 2009 and 2014, rainfall events occurred in the Styrian Basin (Austria), triggering thousands of landslides. Landslide storylines help to show potential future changes under changing environmental conditions. The often neglected uncertainty quantification was the aim of this study. We found uncertainty arising from the landslide model to be of the same order as climate scenario uncertainty. Understanding the dimensions of uncertainty is crucial for allowing informed decision-making.
Fabian Walter, Elias Hodel, Erik S. Mannerfelt, Kristen Cook, Michael Dietze, Livia Estermann, Michaela Wenner, Daniel Farinotti, Martin Fengler, Lukas Hammerschmidt, Flavia Hänsli, Jacob Hirschberg, Brian McArdell, and Peter Molnar
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 4011–4018, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-4011-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-4011-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Debris flows are dangerous sediment–water mixtures in steep terrain. Their formation takes place in poorly accessible terrain where instrumentation cannot be installed. Here we propose to monitor such source terrain with an autonomous drone for mapping sediments which were left behind by debris flows or may contribute to future events. Short flight intervals elucidate changes of such sediments, providing important information for landscape evolution and the likelihood of future debris flows.
Marc Peruzzetto, Yoann Legendre, Aude Nachbaur, Thomas J. B. Dewez, Yannick Thiery, Clara Levy, and Benoit Vittecoq
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3973–3992, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3973-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3973-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Volcanic edifices result from successive construction and dismantling phases. Thus, the geological units forming volcanoes display complex geometries. We show that such geometries can be reconstructed thanks to aerial views, topographic surveys and photogrammetric models. In our case study of the Samperre cliff (Martinique, Lesser Antilles), it allows us to link destabilizations from a rocky cliff to the existence of a filled paleo-valley and estimate a potentially unstable volume.
Abdellah Khouz, Jorge Trindade, Sérgio C. Oliveira, Fatima El Bchari, Blaid Bougadir, Ricardo A. C. Garcia, and Mourad Jadoud
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3793–3814, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3793-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3793-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The aim of this study was to assess the landslide susceptibility of the rocky coast of Essaouira using the information value model. The resulting susceptibility maps could be used for both environmental protection and general planning of future development activities.
Kamal Rana, Nishant Malik, and Ugur Ozturk
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3751–3764, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3751-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3751-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The landslide hazard models assist in mitigating losses due to landslides. However, these models depend on landslide databases, which often have missing triggering information, rendering these databases unusable for landslide hazard models. In this work, we developed a Python library, Landsifier, consisting of three different methods to identify the triggers of landslides. These methods can classify landslide triggers with high accuracy using only a landslide polygon shapefile as an input.
Axel A. J. Deijns, Olivier Dewitte, Wim Thiery, Nicolas d'Oreye, Jean-Philippe Malet, and François Kervyn
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3679–3700, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3679-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3679-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Landslides and flash floods are rainfall-induced processes that often co-occur and interact, generally very quickly. In mountainous cloud-covered environments, determining when these processes occur remains challenging. We propose a regional methodology using open-access satellite radar images that allow for the timing of landslide and flash floods events, in the contrasting landscapes of tropical Africa, with an accuracy of up to a few days. The methodology shows potential for transferability.
Judith Uwihirwe, Alessia Riveros, Hellen Wanjala, Jaap Schellekens, Frederiek Sperna Weiland, Markus Hrachowitz, and Thom A. Bogaard
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3641–3661, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3641-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3641-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This study compared gauge-based and satellite-based precipitation products. Similarly, satellite- and hydrological model-derived soil moisture was compared to in situ soil moisture and used in landslide hazard assessment and warning. The results reveal the cumulative 3 d rainfall from the NASA-GPM to be the most effective landslide trigger. The modelled antecedent soil moisture in the root zone was the most informative hydrological variable for landslide hazard assessment and warning in Rwanda.
Hans-Balder Havenith, Kelly Guerrier, Romy Schlögel, Anika Braun, Sophia Ulysse, Anne-Sophie Mreyen, Karl-Henry Victor, Newdeskarl Saint-Fleur, Léna Cauchie, Dominique Boisson, and Claude Prépetit
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3361–3384, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3361-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3361-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We present a new landslide inventory for the 2021, M 7.2, Haiti, earthquake. We compare characteristics of this inventory with those of the 2010 seismically induced landslides, highlighting the much larger total area of 2021 landslides. This fact could be related to the larger earthquake magnitude in 2021, to the more central location of the fault segment ruptured in 2021 with respect to coastal zones, and/or to possible climatic preconditioning of slope failures in the 2021 affected area.
Maximillian Van Wyk de Vries, Shashank Bhushan, Mylène Jacquemart, César Deschamps-Berger, Etienne Berthier, Simon Gascoin, David E. Shean, Dan H. Shugar, and Andreas Kääb
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3309–3327, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3309-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3309-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
On 7 February 2021, a large rock–ice avalanche occurred in Chamoli, Indian Himalaya. The resulting debris flow swept down the nearby valley, leaving over 200 people dead or missing. We use a range of satellite datasets to investigate how the collapse area changed prior to collapse. We show that signs of instability were visible as early 5 years prior to collapse. However, it would likely not have been possible to predict the timing of the event from current satellite datasets.
Bastian van den Bout, Chenxiao Tang, Cees van Westen, and Victor Jetten
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3183–3209, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3183-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3183-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Natural hazards such as earthquakes, landslides, and flooding do not always occur as stand-alone events. After the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake, a co-seismic landslide blocked a stream in Hongchun. Two years later, a debris flow breached the material, blocked the Min River, and resulted in flooding of a small town. We developed a multi-process model that captures the full cascade. Despite input and process uncertainties, probability of flooding was high due to topography and trigger intensities.
Lucas Pelascini, Philippe Steer, Maxime Mouyen, and Laurent Longuevergne
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3125–3141, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3125-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3125-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Landslides represent a major natural hazard and are often triggered by typhoons. We present a new 2D model computing the respective role of rainfall infiltration, atmospheric depression and groundwater in slope stability during typhoons. The results show rainfall is the strongest factor of destabilisation. However, if the slope is fully saturated, near the toe of the slope or during the wet season, rainfall infiltration is limited and atmospheric pressure change can become the dominant factor.
Anne Felsberg, Jean Poesen, Michel Bechtold, Matthias Vanmaercke, and Gabriëlle J. M. De Lannoy
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3063–3082, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3063-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3063-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
In this study we assessed global landslide susceptibility at the coarse 36 km spatial resolution of global satellite soil moisture observations to prepare for a subsequent combination of the two. Specifically, we focus therefore on the susceptibility of hydrologically triggered landslides. We introduce ensemble techniques, common in, for example, meteorology but not yet in the landslide community, to retrieve reliable estimates of the total prediction uncertainty.
Txomin Bornaetxea, Ivan Marchesini, Sumit Kumar, Rabisankar Karmakar, and Alessandro Mondini
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2929–2941, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2929-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2929-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
One cannot know if there is a landslide or not in an area that one has not observed. This is an obvious statement, but when landslide inventories are obtained by field observation, this fact is seldom taken into account. Since fieldwork campaigns are often done following the roads, we present a methodology to estimate the visibility of the terrain from the roads, and we demonstrate that fieldwork-based inventories are underestimating landslide density in less visible areas.
Katy Burrows, Odin Marc, and Dominique Remy
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2637–2653, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2637-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2637-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The locations of triggered landslides following a rainfall event can be identified in optical satellite images. However cloud cover associated with the rainfall means that these images cannot be used to identify landslide timing. Timings of landslides triggered during long rainfall events are often unknown. Here we present methods of using Sentinel-1 satellite radar data, acquired every 12 d globally in all weather conditions, to better constrain the timings of rainfall-triggered landslides.
Cited articles
Aguilera, F., Honores, C., Lemus, M., Neira, H., Pérez, Y., and Rojas, J.: Evaluación de los recursos geotérmicos de la Región de Los
Lagos, Informe Registrado, Servicio Nacional de Geología y Minería, Santiago, Chile, 2014.
Aldunce, P. and González, M.: Desastres asociados al clima en la agricultura y medio rural en Chile, Fundación para la Innovación
Agraria, Ministerio de Agricultura Chile, Santiago, 2009.
Alganci, U., Besol, B., and Sertel, E.: Accuracy assessment of different digital surface models, ISPRS Int. J. Geo-Inform., 7, 1–16,
https://doi.org/10.3390/ijgi7030114, 2018.
ASF DAAC: ALOS PALSAR_Radiometric_Terrain_Corrected_hi_res; Includes Material ©JAXA/METI 2011, https://doi.org/10.5067/Z97HFCNKR6VA, 2015.
ASTM: D2487-17, Standard Practice for Classification of Soils for Engineering Purposes (Unified Soil Classification System), ASTM International, West Conshohocken, PA, 2017a.
ASTM: D4318-17e1, Standard Test Methods for Liquid Limit, Plastic Limit, and
Plasticity Index of Soils, ASTM International, West Conshohocken, PA, 2017b.
ASTM: D2216-19, Standard Test Methods for Laboratory Determination of Water
(Moisture) Content of Soil and Rock by Mass, ASTM International, West Conshohocken, PA, 2019.
Beven, K.: Equifinality and uncertainty in geomorphological modelling, in: Sci. Nat. Geomorphol. Proceeding 27th Binghamt. Symp. Geomorphol., September 1996, Urbana-Champaign, IL, 289–314, 1996.
Caglar, B., Becek, K., Mekik, C., and Ozendi, M.: On the vertical accuracy of
the ALOS world 3D-30m digital elevation model, Remote Sens. Lett., 9, 607–615, https://doi.org/10.1080/2150704X.2018.1453174, 2018.
CECS: Informe glaciológico sobre el flujo de detritos que afectó Villa Santa Lucía el 16 de diciembre del 2017, Laboratorio de Glaciológia, Centro de Estudios Científicos, Valdivia, Chile, 2017.
Cuevas, J., Horn, R., Seguel, O., and Dörner, J.: Hydraulic conductivity
variation in chilean volcanic soils due to wheeling and management, J. Soil
Sci. Plant Nutr., 13, 756–766, https://doi.org/10.4067/S0718-95162013005000060, 2013.
FLO-2D: Reference Manual, FLO-2D Software, Inc., Nutrioso, AZ, 2018.
Gonzalez-Pulgar, C. A.: Propiedades Geomecánicas De Dos Suelos De Origen
Volcánico, Universidad de Chile, available at:
http://repositorio.uchile.cl/handle/2250/102764 (last access: 20 June 2020), 2012.
Hervé, F., Fuentes, F. J., Calderón, M., Fanning, M., Quezada, P.,
Pankhurst, R., and Rapela, C.: Ultramafic rocks in the North Patagonian
Andes: is their emplacement associated with the Neogene tectonics of the Liquiñe–Ofqui Fault Zone?, Andean Geol., 44, 1–16, https://doi.org/10.5027/andgeoV44n1-a01, 2017.
Holtz, D. R. and Kovacs, D. W.: An Introduction to Geotechnical Engineering,
Prentice Hall, Englewood Cliffs, New Jersey, 733 pp., 1981.
Hsu, S. M., Chiou, L. B., Lin, G. F., Chao, C. H., Wen, H. Y., and Ku, C. Y.: Applications of simulation technique on debris-flow hazard zone delineation: a case study in Hualien County, Taiwan, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 10, 535–545, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-10-535-2010, 2010.
INE: Memoria del Censo 2017 – Chile, Instituto Nacional de Estadísticas, Santiago, Chile, 2018.
Julien, P. Y. and Lan, Y.: Rheology of Hyperconcentrations, J. Hydraul. Eng., 117, 346–353, https://doi.org/10.1061/(asce)0733-9429(1991)117:3(346), 2007.
Mergili, M. and Pudasaini, S. P.: r.avaflow – The mass flow simulation tool,
r.avaflow 2.0 Software 2014–2019, available at: http://r.avaflow.org/software.php (last access: 20 June 2020), 2019.
Mergili, M., Fischer, J. T., Krenn, J., and Pudasaini, S. P.: R.avaflow v1,
an advanced open-source computational framework for the propagation and
interaction of two-phase mass flows, Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 553–569,
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-553-2017, 2017.
Nguyen, D. H., Van Nguyen, T. H., Le, Q. H., Pham, V. S., and Nguyen, H. K.:
TXT-tool 2.084-3.1 Rainfall Thresholds for Triggering Geohazards in Bac Kan
Province (Vietnam), in: Landslide Dynamics: ISDR-ICL Landslide Interactive
Teaching Tools, vol. 1, edited by: Sassa, K., Guzzetti, F., Yamagishi, H.,
Arbanas, Ž., Casagli, N., McSaveney, M., and Dang, K., Springer International Publishing, Cham, 351–360, 2018.
O'Brien, J. S. and Julien, P. Y.: Laboratory Analysis of Mudflow Properties,
J. Hydraul. Eng., 114, 877–887, https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9429(1988)114:8(877), 1988.
O'Brien, J. S. and Zhao, B.: Real Time Rainfall-Runoff Modeling on Alluvial
Fans, Floodplains, and Watersheds, in Critical Transitions in Water and
Environmental Resources Management, American Society of Civil Engineers, Reston, VA, 1–9, 2004.
O'Brien, J. S., Julien, P. Y., and Fullerton, W. T.: Two-Dimensional water
Flood and mudlow simulation, J. Hydraul. Eng., 119, 244–261, 1993.
Oyarzún-Ulloa, Somos-Valenzuela, and Fustos-Toribio: R.avaflow model for the VSL event, Zenodo, https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3998134, 2020.
Pudasaini, S. P.: A general two-phase debris flow model, J. Geophys. Res.-Earth, 117, F03010, https://doi.org/10.1029/2011JF002186, 2012.
SAF: Aluvión NIR, SAF Fuerza Aérea de Chile, Santiago, available at:
https://www.saf.cl/ (last access: 10 May 2019), 2017.
Saltelli, A. and Annoni, P.: How to avoid a perfunctory sensitivity analysis, Environ. Model. Softw., 25, 1508–1517, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2010.04.012, 2010.
Sernageomin: Carta Metalogénica X Región sur, Informe Registrado IR-95-05, 4 Tomos, 10 Vols., 95 mapas, diferentes escalas,
available at:
http://www2.sernageomin.cl/biblioteca/cgi/wxis.exe?IsisScript=plus.xis&mfn=011094&base=Bsngm
(last access: 20 June 2020), 1995.
Sernageomin: Evaluación Preliminar de los Peligros Geológicos en la
localidad de Villa Santa Lucía, Provincia de Palena, Región de Los
Lagos, Servicio Nacional de Geología y Minería, Puerto Varas, Chile, 2008.
Sernageomin: Origen y efectos de la remoción en masa del 16.12.2017 que
afectó la localidad de Villa Santa Lucía, comuna de Chaitén, Región de los Lagos, Servicio Nacional de Geología y Minería, Puerto Varas, Chile, 57 pp., 2018.
Short summary
This work presents a study of the biggest mudflow event in 20 years in Chilean Patagonia, which resulted from an avalanche in the Cordon Yelcho. We integrate in situ geotechnical tests and numerical modeling to model the Villa Santa Lucía mudflow event. Our results suggest that the initial soil water content is sufficient to transform the landslide and scoured soil into a mudflow. Therefore, knowing the soil characteristics is crucial to evaluating the impact of landslides in the study area.
This work presents a study of the biggest mudflow event in 20 years in Chilean Patagonia, which...
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint