Articles | Volume 19, issue 12
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2795-2019
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2795-2019
Research article
 | 
11 Dec 2019
Research article |  | 11 Dec 2019

Probabilistic modelling of the dependence between rainfed crops and drought hazard

Andreia F. S. Ribeiro, Ana Russo, Célia M. Gouveia, Patrícia Páscoa, and Carlos A. L. Pires

Related authors

Fire weather index data under historical and shared socioeconomic pathway projections in the 6th phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project from 1850 to 2100
Yann Quilcaille, Fulden Batibeniz, Andreia F. S. Ribeiro, Ryan S. Padrón, and Sonia I. Seneviratne
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 2153–2177, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-2153-2023,https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-2153-2023, 2023
Short summary
Towards a compound-event-oriented climate model evaluation: a decomposition of the underlying biases in multivariate fire and heat stress hazards
Roberto Villalobos-Herrera, Emanuele Bevacqua, Andreia F. S. Ribeiro, Graeme Auld, Laura Crocetti, Bilyana Mircheva, Minh Ha, Jakob Zscheischler, and Carlo De Michele
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1867–1885, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1867-2021,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1867-2021, 2021
Short summary
Risk of crop failure due to compound dry and hot extremes estimated with nested copulas
Andreia Filipa Silva Ribeiro, Ana Russo, Célia Marina Gouveia, Patrícia Páscoa, and Jakob Zscheischler
Biogeosciences, 17, 4815–4830, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-4815-2020,https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-4815-2020, 2020
Short summary

Related subject area

Atmospheric, Meteorological and Climatological Hazards
Reconstructing hail days in Switzerland with statistical models (1959–2022)
Lena Wilhelm, Cornelia Schwierz, Katharina Schröer, Mateusz Taszarek, and Olivia Martius
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3869–3894, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3869-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3869-2024, 2024
Short summary
GTDI: a game-theory-based integrated drought index implying hazard-causing and hazard-bearing impact change
Xiaowei Zhao, Tianzeng Yang, Hongbo Zhang, Tian Lan, Chaowei Xue, Tongfang Li, Zhaoxia Ye, Zhifang Yang, and Yurou Zhang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3479–3495, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3479-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3479-2024, 2024
Short summary
Insurance loss model vs. meteorological loss index – how comparable are their loss estimates for European windstorms?
Julia Moemken, Inovasita Alifdini, Alexandre M. Ramos, Alexandros Georgiadis, Aidan Brocklehurst, Lukas Braun, and Joaquim G. Pinto
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3445–3460, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3445-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3445-2024, 2024
Short summary
Intense rains in Israel associated with the train effect
Baruch Ziv, Uri Dayan, Lidiya Shendrik, and Elyakom Vadislavsky
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3267–3277, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3267-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3267-2024, 2024
Short summary
Convection-permitting climate model representation of severe convective wind gusts and future changes in southeastern Australia
Andrew Brown, Andrew Dowdy, and Todd P. Lane
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3225–3243, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3225-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3225-2024, 2024
Short summary

Cited articles

Afshar, M. H., Sorman, A. U., and Yilmaz, M. T.: Conditional copula-based spatial-temporal drought characteristics analysis – A case study over Turkey, Water (Switzerland), 8, 1–16, https://doi.org/10.3390/w8100426, 2016. 
Agnew, C. T.: Using the SPI to Identify Drought, Drought Netw. News, 12, 6–12, 2000. 
Bezak, N. and Brilly, M.: Applicability of copula functions in analysis of extreme hydrological, in: Proceedings of the Mediterranean Meeting on Monitoring, modelling and early warning of extreme events triggered by heavy rainfalls, PON 01_01503 – MED-FRIEND project, University of Calabria, 26–28 June 2014, Cosenza, Italy, 2014. 
Bokusheva, R.: Improving the Effectiveness of Weather-based Insurance: An Application of Copula Approach, MPRA Pap. 62339, available at: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/62339/ (last access: 9 November 2019), 2014. 
Bokusheva, R., Kogan, F., Vitkovskaya, I., Conradt, S., and Batyrbayeva, M.: Satellite-based vegetation health indices as a criteria for insuring against drought-related yield losses, Agr. Forest Meteorol., 220, 200–206, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2015.12.066, 2016. 
Download
Short summary
This work investigates the dependence between drought hazard and yield anomalies of rainfed cropping systems in the Iberian Peninsula using the copula theory. The applied methodology allows us to estimate the likelihood of wheat and barley loss under drought conditions, and a dependence among extreme values is suggested. From the decision-making point of view this study aims to contribute to the mitigation of drought-related crop failure.
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint