Articles | Volume 19, issue 12
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2795-2019
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2795-2019
Research article
 | 
11 Dec 2019
Research article |  | 11 Dec 2019

Probabilistic modelling of the dependence between rainfed crops and drought hazard

Andreia F. S. Ribeiro, Ana Russo, Célia M. Gouveia, Patrícia Páscoa, and Carlos A. L. Pires

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Cited articles

Afshar, M. H., Sorman, A. U., and Yilmaz, M. T.: Conditional copula-based spatial-temporal drought characteristics analysis – A case study over Turkey, Water (Switzerland), 8, 1–16, https://doi.org/10.3390/w8100426, 2016. 
Agnew, C. T.: Using the SPI to Identify Drought, Drought Netw. News, 12, 6–12, 2000. 
Bezak, N. and Brilly, M.: Applicability of copula functions in analysis of extreme hydrological, in: Proceedings of the Mediterranean Meeting on Monitoring, modelling and early warning of extreme events triggered by heavy rainfalls, PON 01_01503 – MED-FRIEND project, University of Calabria, 26–28 June 2014, Cosenza, Italy, 2014. 
Bokusheva, R.: Improving the Effectiveness of Weather-based Insurance: An Application of Copula Approach, MPRA Pap. 62339, available at: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/62339/ (last access: 9 November 2019), 2014. 
Bokusheva, R., Kogan, F., Vitkovskaya, I., Conradt, S., and Batyrbayeva, M.: Satellite-based vegetation health indices as a criteria for insuring against drought-related yield losses, Agr. Forest Meteorol., 220, 200–206, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2015.12.066, 2016. 
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Short summary
This work investigates the dependence between drought hazard and yield anomalies of rainfed cropping systems in the Iberian Peninsula using the copula theory. The applied methodology allows us to estimate the likelihood of wheat and barley loss under drought conditions, and a dependence among extreme values is suggested. From the decision-making point of view this study aims to contribute to the mitigation of drought-related crop failure.
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