Articles | Volume 18, issue 5
Research article
03 May 2018
Research article |  | 03 May 2018

Multi-model ensembles for assessment of flood losses and associated uncertainty

Rui Figueiredo, Kai Schröter, Alexander Weiss-Motz, Mario L. V. Martina, and Heidi Kreibich

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Cited articles

Apel, H., Aronica, G. T., Kreibich, H., and Thieken, A. H.: Flood risk analyses – how detailed do we need to be?, Nat. Hazards, 49, 79–98,, 2009.
Bröcker, J.: Evaluating raw ensembles with the continuous ranked probability score, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 138, 1611–1617,, 2012.
Buck, W. and Merkel, U.: Auswertung der HOWAS-Schadendatenbank, Institut für Wasserwirtschaft und Kulturtechnik der Universität Karlsruhe, 1999.
Budiyono, Y., Aerts, J., Brinkman, J. J., Marfai, M. A., and Ward, P.: Flood risk assessment for delta mega-cities: a case study of Jakarta, Nat. Hazards, 75, 389–413,, 2015.
Cammerer, H., Thieken, A. H., and Lammel, J.: Adaptability and transferability of flood loss functions in residential areas, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 13, 3063–3081,, 2013.
Short summary
Flood loss modelling is subject to large uncertainty that is often neglected. Most models are deterministic, and large disparities exist among them. Adopting a single model may lead to inaccurate loss estimates and sub-optimal decision-making. This paper proposes the use of multi-model ensembles to address such issues. We demonstrate that this can be a simple and pragmatic approach to obtain more accurate loss estimates and reliable probability distributions of model uncertainty.
Final-revised paper