Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
NHESS
Articles | Volume 18, issue 5
Articles | Volume 18, issue 5
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-1297-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-1297-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 18, issue 5
Research article
 | 
03 May 2018
Research article |  | 03 May 2018

Multi-model ensembles for assessment of flood losses and associated uncertainty

Rui Figueiredo, Kai Schröter, Alexander Weiss-Motz, Mario L. V. Martina, and Heidi Kreibich

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Short summary
Flood loss modelling is subject to large uncertainty that is often neglected. Most models are deterministic, and large disparities exist among them. Adopting a single model may lead to inaccurate loss estimates and sub-optimal decision-making. This paper proposes the use of multi-model ensembles to address such issues. We demonstrate that this can be a simple and pragmatic approach to obtain more accurate loss estimates and reliable probability distributions of model uncertainty.
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