Articles | Volume 18, issue 5
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-1297-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-1297-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
03 May 2018
Research article |
| 03 May 2018
Multi-model ensembles for assessment of flood losses and associated uncertainty
Rui Figueiredo
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Scuola Universitaria Superiore IUSS Pavia, Pavia, Italy
GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, Sect. 5.4: Hydrology, Potsdam, Germany
Kai Schröter
GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, Sect. 5.4: Hydrology, Potsdam, Germany
Alexander Weiss-Motz
GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, Sect. 5.4: Hydrology, Potsdam, Germany
Mario L. V. Martina
Scuola Universitaria Superiore IUSS Pavia, Pavia, Italy
Heidi Kreibich
GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, Sect. 5.4: Hydrology, Potsdam, Germany
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Cited
27 citations as recorded by crossref.
- The determination of flood damage curve in areas lacking disaster data based on the optimization principle of variation coefficient and beta distribution Z. Wu et al. 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.142277
- Development and assessment of uni- and multivariable flood loss models for Emilia-Romagna (Italy) F. Carisi et al. 10.5194/nhess-18-2057-2018
- Seamless Estimation of Hydrometeorological Risk Across Spatial Scales T. Sieg et al. 10.1029/2018EF001122
- Developing a multivariable lookup table function for estimating flood damages of rice crop in Vietnam using a secondary research approach N. Nguyen et al. 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2021.102208
- Quantifying Flood Vulnerability Reduction via Private Precaution N. Sairam et al. 10.1029/2018EF000994
- Variable-resolution building exposure modelling for earthquake and tsunami scenario-based risk assessment: an application case in Lima, Peru J. Gomez-Zapata et al. 10.5194/nhess-21-3599-2021
- Capturing Regional Differences in Flood Vulnerability Improves Flood Loss Estimation N. Sairam et al. 10.3389/frwa.2022.817625
- Probabilistic Flood Loss Models for Companies L. Schoppa et al. 10.1029/2020WR027649
- Preface: Damage of natural hazards: assessment and mitigation H. Kreibich et al. 10.5194/nhess-19-551-2019
- From Hazard to Consequences: Evaluation of Direct and Indirect Impacts of Flooding Along the Emilia-Romagna Coastline, Italy C. Armaroli et al. 10.3389/feart.2019.00203
- A Consistent Approach for Probabilistic Residential Flood Loss Modeling in Europe S. Lüdtke et al. 10.1029/2019WR026213
- A Comparison of Factors Driving Flood Losses in Households Affected by Different Flood Types G. Mohor et al. 10.1029/2019WR025943
- Residential flood loss estimated from Bayesian multilevel models G. Mohor et al. 10.5194/nhess-21-1599-2021
- Are flood damage models converging to “reality”? Lessons learnt from a blind test D. Molinari et al. 10.5194/nhess-20-2997-2020
- Flood risk assessment of cultural heritage at large spatial scales: Framework and application to mainland Portugal R. Figueiredo et al. 10.1016/j.culher.2019.11.007
- Integrated assessment of short-term direct and indirect economic flood impacts including uncertainty quantification T. Sieg et al. 10.1371/journal.pone.0212932
- A probabilistic approach to estimating residential losses from different flood types D. Paprotny et al. 10.1007/s11069-020-04413-x
- Evaluating targeted heuristics for vulnerability assessment in flood impact model chains A. Zischg et al. 10.1111/jfr3.12736
- Hierarchical Bayesian Approach for Modeling Spatiotemporal Variability in Flood Damage Processes N. Sairam et al. 10.1029/2019WR025068
- Bayesian Data-Driven approach enhances synthetic flood loss models N. Sairam et al. 10.1016/j.envsoft.2020.104798
- Hindcast of pluvial, fluvial, and coastal flood damage in Houston, Texas during Hurricane Harvey (2017) using SFINCS A. Sebastian et al. 10.1007/s11069-021-04922-3
- Testing empirical and synthetic flood damage models: the case of Italy M. Amadio et al. 10.5194/nhess-19-661-2019
- A hazard-human coupled model (HazardCM) to assess city dynamic exposure to rainfall-triggered natural hazards Q. Dai et al. 10.1016/j.envsoft.2020.104684
- Semi-probabilistic coastal flood impact analysis: From deterministic hazards to multi-damage model impacts E. Duo et al. 10.1016/j.envint.2020.105884
- Are OpenStreetMap building data useful for flood vulnerability modelling? M. Cerri et al. 10.5194/nhess-21-643-2021
- A model taxonomy for flood fragility and vulnerability assessment of buildings C. Galasso et al. 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2020.101985
- Flood risk (d)evolution: Disentangling key drivers of flood risk change with a retro-model experiment A. Zischg et al. 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.05.056
26 citations as recorded by crossref.
- The determination of flood damage curve in areas lacking disaster data based on the optimization principle of variation coefficient and beta distribution Z. Wu et al. 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.142277
- Development and assessment of uni- and multivariable flood loss models for Emilia-Romagna (Italy) F. Carisi et al. 10.5194/nhess-18-2057-2018
- Seamless Estimation of Hydrometeorological Risk Across Spatial Scales T. Sieg et al. 10.1029/2018EF001122
- Developing a multivariable lookup table function for estimating flood damages of rice crop in Vietnam using a secondary research approach N. Nguyen et al. 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2021.102208
- Quantifying Flood Vulnerability Reduction via Private Precaution N. Sairam et al. 10.1029/2018EF000994
- Variable-resolution building exposure modelling for earthquake and tsunami scenario-based risk assessment: an application case in Lima, Peru J. Gomez-Zapata et al. 10.5194/nhess-21-3599-2021
- Capturing Regional Differences in Flood Vulnerability Improves Flood Loss Estimation N. Sairam et al. 10.3389/frwa.2022.817625
- Probabilistic Flood Loss Models for Companies L. Schoppa et al. 10.1029/2020WR027649
- Preface: Damage of natural hazards: assessment and mitigation H. Kreibich et al. 10.5194/nhess-19-551-2019
- From Hazard to Consequences: Evaluation of Direct and Indirect Impacts of Flooding Along the Emilia-Romagna Coastline, Italy C. Armaroli et al. 10.3389/feart.2019.00203
- A Consistent Approach for Probabilistic Residential Flood Loss Modeling in Europe S. Lüdtke et al. 10.1029/2019WR026213
- A Comparison of Factors Driving Flood Losses in Households Affected by Different Flood Types G. Mohor et al. 10.1029/2019WR025943
- Residential flood loss estimated from Bayesian multilevel models G. Mohor et al. 10.5194/nhess-21-1599-2021
- Are flood damage models converging to “reality”? Lessons learnt from a blind test D. Molinari et al. 10.5194/nhess-20-2997-2020
- Flood risk assessment of cultural heritage at large spatial scales: Framework and application to mainland Portugal R. Figueiredo et al. 10.1016/j.culher.2019.11.007
- Integrated assessment of short-term direct and indirect economic flood impacts including uncertainty quantification T. Sieg et al. 10.1371/journal.pone.0212932
- A probabilistic approach to estimating residential losses from different flood types D. Paprotny et al. 10.1007/s11069-020-04413-x
- Evaluating targeted heuristics for vulnerability assessment in flood impact model chains A. Zischg et al. 10.1111/jfr3.12736
- Hierarchical Bayesian Approach for Modeling Spatiotemporal Variability in Flood Damage Processes N. Sairam et al. 10.1029/2019WR025068
- Bayesian Data-Driven approach enhances synthetic flood loss models N. Sairam et al. 10.1016/j.envsoft.2020.104798
- Hindcast of pluvial, fluvial, and coastal flood damage in Houston, Texas during Hurricane Harvey (2017) using SFINCS A. Sebastian et al. 10.1007/s11069-021-04922-3
- Testing empirical and synthetic flood damage models: the case of Italy M. Amadio et al. 10.5194/nhess-19-661-2019
- A hazard-human coupled model (HazardCM) to assess city dynamic exposure to rainfall-triggered natural hazards Q. Dai et al. 10.1016/j.envsoft.2020.104684
- Semi-probabilistic coastal flood impact analysis: From deterministic hazards to multi-damage model impacts E. Duo et al. 10.1016/j.envint.2020.105884
- Are OpenStreetMap building data useful for flood vulnerability modelling? M. Cerri et al. 10.5194/nhess-21-643-2021
- A model taxonomy for flood fragility and vulnerability assessment of buildings C. Galasso et al. 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2020.101985
Latest update: 31 Mar 2023
Short summary
Flood loss modelling is subject to large uncertainty that is often neglected. Most models are deterministic, and large disparities exist among them. Adopting a single model may lead to inaccurate loss estimates and sub-optimal decision-making. This paper proposes the use of multi-model ensembles to address such issues. We demonstrate that this can be a simple and pragmatic approach to obtain more accurate loss estimates and reliable probability distributions of model uncertainty.
Flood loss modelling is subject to large uncertainty that is often neglected. Most models are...
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