Articles | Volume 17, issue 3
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-449-2017
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-449-2017
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Research article
| 
21 Mar 2017
Research article |
| 21 Mar 2017
Assessment of island beach erosion due to sea level rise: the case of the Aegean archipelago (Eastern Mediterranean)
Isavela N. Monioudi
Department of Marine Sciences, University of the Aegean, University
Hill, 81100 Mytilene, Greece
Adonis F. Velegrakis
Department of Marine Sciences, University of the Aegean, University
Hill, 81100 Mytilene, Greece
Antonis E. Chatzipavlis
Department of Marine Sciences, University of the Aegean, University
Hill, 81100 Mytilene, Greece
Anastasios Rigos
Department of Marine Sciences, University of the Aegean, University
Hill, 81100 Mytilene, Greece
Department of Cultural Technology and Communication, University of the
Aegean, University Hill, Mytilene 81100, Greece
Theophanis Karambas
School of Civil Engineering, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki,
University Campus, 54124 Thessaloniki, Greece
Michalis I. Vousdoukas
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
European Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC), Directorate for
Space, Security and Migration Disaster Risk Management Unit, Via E. Fermi
2749, 21027 Ispra (VA), Italy
Department of Marine Sciences, University of the Aegean, University
Hill, 81100 Mytilene, Greece
Thomas Hasiotis
Department of Marine Sciences, University of the Aegean, University
Hill, 81100 Mytilene, Greece
Nikoletta Koukourouvli
Department of Geography, University of the Aegean, University Hill,
81100 Mytilene, Greece
Pascal Peduzzi
UNEP/DEWA/GRID-Geneva, International Environment House, 11 Chemin des
Anémones, 1219 Châtelaine, Switzerland
Eva Manoutsoglou
Department of Marine Sciences, University of the Aegean, University
Hill, 81100 Mytilene, Greece
Serafim E. Poulos
Faculty of Geology and Geoenvironment, National and Kapodistrian
University of Athens, Panepistimioupoli Zografou, 15784 Athens, Greece
Michael B. Collins
Plentziako Itsas Estazioa, University of the Basque Country, Areatza
z/g, 48620 Plentzia-Bizkaia, Spain
Related authors
No articles found.
Panagiotis Athanasiou, Ap van Dongeren, Maarten Pronk, Alessio Giardino, Michalis Vousdoukas, and Roshanka Ranasinghe
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2023-313, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2023-313, 2023
Preprint under review for ESSD
Short summary
Short summary
The shape of the coast, the intensity of waves, the height of the water levels, the presence of people or critical infrastructure and the land use are important information to assess the vulnerability of the coast to coastal hazards. Here we provide 80 indicators of this kind, at consistent locations along the global ice-free coastline using open-access global datasets. These can be valuable for quick assessments of the vulnerability of the coast and at data-poor locations.
Marc Igigabel, Marissa Yates, Michalis Vousdoukas, and Youssef Diab
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-154, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-154, 2023
Preprint under review for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
Changes in sea-levels alone do not determine the evolution of coastal hazards. Coastal hazard changes should be assessed using additional factors describing geomorphological configurations, meteocean events types (storms, cyclones, long swells and tsunamis) and the marine environment (e. g., coral reef state and sea ice extent). The assessment completed here, at regional scale including the coasts of mainland and overseas France, highlights significant differences in hazard changes.
Panagiotis Athanasiou, Ap van Dongeren, Alessio Giardino, Michalis Vousdoukas, Jose A. A. Antolinez, and Roshanka Ranasinghe
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3897–3915, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3897-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3897-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Sandy dunes protect the hinterland from coastal flooding during storms. Thus, models that can efficiently predict dune erosion are critical for coastal zone management and early warning systems. Here we develop such a model for the Dutch coast based on machine learning techniques, allowing for dune erosion estimations in a matter of seconds relative to available computationally expensive models. Validation of the model against benchmark data and observations shows good agreement.
Piero Lionello, David Barriopedro, Christian Ferrarin, Robert J. Nicholls, Mirko Orlić, Fabio Raicich, Marco Reale, Georg Umgiesser, Michalis Vousdoukas, and Davide Zanchettin
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2705–2731, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2705-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2705-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
In this review we describe the factors leading to the extreme water heights producing the floods of Venice. We discuss the different contributions, their relative importance, and the resulting compound events. We highlight the role of relative sea level rise and the observed past and very likely future increase in extreme water heights, showing that they might be up to 160 % higher at the end of the 21st century than presently.
Emanuele Bevacqua, Michalis I. Vousdoukas, Theodore G. Shepherd, and Mathieu Vrac
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1765–1782, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1765-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1765-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Coastal compound flooding (CF), caused by interacting storm surges and high water runoff, is typically studied based on concurring storm surge extremes with either precipitation or river discharge extremes. Globally, these two approaches show similar CF spatial patterns, especially where the CF potential is the highest. Deviations between the two approaches increase with the catchment size. The precipitation-based analysis allows for considering
local-rainfall-driven CF and CF in small rivers.
Panagiotis Athanasiou, Ap van Dongeren, Alessio Giardino, Michalis Vousdoukas, Sandra Gaytan-Aguilar, and Roshanka Ranasinghe
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 11, 1515–1529, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-1515-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-1515-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
This dataset provides the spatial distribution of nearshore slopes at a resolution of 1 km along the global coastline. The calculation was based on available global topo-bathymetric datasets and ocean wave reanalysis. The calculated slopes show skill in capturing the spatial variability of the nearshore slopes when compared against local observations. The importance of this variability is presented with a global coastal retreat assessment for an arbitrary sea level rise scenario.
Michalis I. Vousdoukas, Dimitrios Bouziotas, Alessio Giardino, Laurens M. Bouwer, Lorenzo Mentaschi, Evangelos Voukouvalas, and Luc Feyen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 2127–2142, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-2127-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-2127-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
We examine sources of epistemic uncertainty in coastal flood risk models. We find that uncertainty from sea level estimations can be higher than that related to greenhouse gas emissions or climate prediction errors. Of comparable importance is information on coastal protection levels and the topography. In the absence of large datasets with sufficient resolution and accuracy, the last two factors are the main bottlenecks in terms of estimating coastal flood risks at large scales.
Dominik Paprotny, Michalis I. Vousdoukas, Oswaldo Morales-Nápoles, Sebastiaan N. Jonkman, and Luc Feyen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2018-132, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2018-132, 2018
Preprint withdrawn
Lorenzo Mentaschi, Michalis Vousdoukas, Evangelos Voukouvalas, Ludovica Sartini, Luc Feyen, Giovanni Besio, and Lorenzo Alfieri
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3527–3547, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-3527-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-3527-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
The climate is subject to variations which must be considered
studying the intensity and frequency of extreme events.
We introduce in this paper a new methodology
for the study of variable extremes, which consists in detecting
the pattern of variability of a time series, and applying these patterns
to the analysis of the extreme events.
This technique comes with advantages with respect to the previous ones
in terms of accuracy, simplicity, and robustness.
Michalis I. Vousdoukas, Evangelos Voukouvalas, Lorenzo Mentaschi, Francesco Dottori, Alessio Giardino, Dimitrios Bouziotas, Alessandra Bianchi, Peter Salamon, and Luc Feyen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 1841–1853, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-1841-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-1841-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Coastal flooding has severe socioeconomic impacts that are projected to increase under the changing climate. The present contribution reports on efforts towards a new methodology for mapping coastal flood hazard at European scale, combining the contribution of waves, improved inundation modeling and an open, physics-based framework which can be constantly upgraded whenever new and more accurate data become available.
A. G. Samaras, Th. V. Karambas, and R. Archetti
Ocean Sci., 11, 643–655, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-11-643-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-11-643-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
An advanced tsunami generation, propagation and coastal inundation model is applied to simulate representative earthquake-induced tsunami scenarios in the Eastern Mediterranean. Two areas of interest were selected after evaluating tsunamigenic zones and possible sources in the region: one at the SE of Crete (Greece) and one at the E of Sicily (Italy). Results are indicative of the model’s capabilities, as well of how areas in the Eastern Mediterranean would be affected by eventual larger events.
Related subject area
Sea, Ocean and Coastal Hazards
Storm characteristics influence nitrogen removal in an urban estuarine environment
A new European coastal flood database for low–medium intensity events
Boulder transport and wave height of a seventeenth-century South China Sea tsunami on Penghu Islands, Taiwan
A wave-resolving modeling study of rip current variability, rip hazard, and swimmer escape strategies on an embayed beach
Human displacements from Tropical Cyclone Idai attributable to climate change
Three decades of coastal subsidence in the slow-moving Nice Côte d'Azur Airport area (France) revealed by InSAR (interferometric synthetic-aperture radar): insights into the deformation mechanism
Modelling extreme water levels using intertidal topography and bathymetry derived from multispectral satellite images
Regional assessment of extreme sea levels and associated coastal flooding along the German Baltic Sea coast
Joint probability analysis of storm surges and waves caused by tropical cyclones for the estimation of protection standard: a case study on the eastern coast of the Leizhou Peninsula and the island of Hainan in China
Meteotsunami in the United Kingdom: the hidden hazard
Climate-induced storminess forces major increases in future storm surge hazard in the South China Sea region
Assessing Typhoon Soulik-induced morphodynamics over the Mokpo coastal region in South Korea based on a geospatial approach
Bayesian hierarchical modelling of sea-level extremes in the Finnish coastal region
Assessing the coastal hazard of Medicane Ianos through ensemble modelling
A predictive equation for wave setup using genetic programming
Bayesian extreme value analysis of extreme sea levels along the German Baltic coast using historical information
Contribution of solitons to enhanced rogue wave occurrence in shallow depths: a case study in the southern North Sea
Proposal for a new meteotsunami intensity index
Compound flood events: analysing the joint occurrence of extreme river discharge events and storm surges in northern and central Europe
Improvements to the detection and analysis of external surges in the North Sea
Optimal probabilistic placement of facilities using a surrogate model for 3D tsunami simulations
Enabling dynamic modelling of coastal flooding by defining storm tide hydrographs
The role of preconditioning for extreme storm surges in the western Baltic Sea
Freak wave events in 2005–2021: statistics and analysis of favourable wave and wind conditions
Probabilistic projections and past trends of sea level rise in Finland
The effect of deep ocean currents on ocean- bottom seismometers records
Total water levels along the South Atlantic Bight during three along-shelf propagating tropical cyclones: relative contributions of storm surge and wave runup
An interdisciplinary agent-based evacuation model: integrating the natural environment, built environment, and social system for community preparedness and resilience
Hurricane Irma: an unprecedented event over the last 3700 years? Geomorphological changes and sedimentological record in Codrington Lagoon, Barbuda
Coastal extreme sea levels in the Caribbean Sea induced by tropical cyclones
Characteristics of consecutive tsunamis and resulting tsunami behaviors in southern Taiwan induced by the Hengchun earthquake doublet on 26 December 2006
Potential tsunami hazard of the southern Vanuatu subduction zone: tectonics, case study of the Matthew Island tsunami of 10 February 2021 and implication in regional hazard assessment
Detecting anomalous sea-level states in North Sea tide gauge data using an autoassociative neural network
Observations of extreme wave runup events on the US Pacific Northwest coast
Warning water level determination and its spatial distribution in coastal areas of China
A global open-source database of flood-protection levees on river deltas (openDELvE)
Hazard assessment and hydrodynamic, morphodynamic, and hydrological response to Hurricane Gamma and Hurricane Delta on the northern Yucatán Peninsula
Estimating dune erosion at the regional scale using a meta-model based on neural networks
Simulation of tsunami induced by a submarine landslide in a glaciomarine margin: the case of Storfjorden LS-1 (southwestern Svalbard Islands)
Multi-hazard analysis of flood and tsunamis on the western Mediterranean coast of Turkey
Importance of non-stationary analysis for assessing extreme sea levels under sea level rise
Wind-wave characteristics and extremes along the Emilia-Romagna coast
Partitioning the contributions of dependent offshore forcing conditions in the probabilistic assessment of future coastal flooding
Identification and ranking of subaerial volcanic tsunami hazard sources in Southeast Asia
Modelling geographical and built-environment attributes as predictors of human vulnerability during tsunami evacuations: a multi-case-study and paths to improvement
Modelling the sequential earthquake–tsunami response of coastal road embankment infrastructure
Historical tsunamis of Taiwan in the 18th century: the 1781 Jiateng Harbor flooding and 1782 tsunami event
Multilevel multifidelity Monte Carlo methods for assessing uncertainty in coastal flooding
Reconstruction of wind and surge of the 1906 storm tide at the German North Sea coast
Developing a framework for the assessment of current and future flood risk in Venice, Italy
Anne Margaret H. Smiley, Suzanne P. Thompson, Nathan S. Hall, and Michael F. Piehler
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3635–3649, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3635-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3635-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Floodwaters can deliver reactive nitrogen to sensitive aquatic systems and diminish water quality. We assessed the nitrogen removal capabilities of flooded habitats and urban landscapes. Differences in processing rates across land cover treatments and between nutrient treatments suggest that abundance and spatial distributions of habitats, as well as storm characteristics, influence landscape-scale nitrogen removal. Results have important implications for coastal development and climate change.
Marine Le Gal, Tomás Fernández-Montblanc, Enrico Duo, Juan Montes Perez, Paulo Cabrita, Paola Souto Ceccon, Véra Gastal, Paolo Ciavola, and Clara Armaroli
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3585–3602, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3585-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3585-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Assessing coastal hazards is crucial to mitigate flooding disasters. In this regard, coastal flood databases are valuable tools. This paper describes a new coastal flood map catalogue covering the entire European coastline, as well as the methodology to build it and its accuracy. The catalogue focuses on frequent extreme events and relies on synthetic scenarios estimated from local storm conditions. Flood-prone areas and regions sensitive to storm duration and water level peak were identified.
Neng-Ti Yu, Cheng-Hao Lu, I-Chin Yen, Jia-Hong Chen, Jiun-Yee Yen, and Shyh-Jeng Chyi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3525–3542, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3525-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3525-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
A paleotsunami deposit of cliff-top basalt debris was identified on the Penghu Islands in the southern Taiwan Strait and related to the 1661 earthquake in southwest Taiwan. A minimum wave height of 3.2 m is estimated to have rotated the biggest boulder for over 30 m landwards onto the cliff top at 2.5 m a.s.l. The event must have been huge compared to the 1994 M 6.4 earthquake with the ensuing 0.4 m high tsunami in the same area, validating the intimidating tsunami risks in the South China Sea.
Ye Yuan, Huaiwei Yang, Fujiang Yu, Yi Gao, Benxia Li, and Chuang Xing
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3487–3507, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3487-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3487-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Rip currents are narrow jets of offshore-directed flow that originated in the surf zone, which can take swimmers of all ability levels into deeper water unawares. In this study, a 1 m fine-resolution wave-resolving model was configured to study rip current variability and the optimal swimmer escape strategies. Multiple factors contribute to the survival of swimmers. However, for weak-to-moderate rip and longshore currents, swimming onshore consistently seems to be the most successful strategy.
Benedikt Mester, Thomas Vogt, Seth Bryant, Christian Otto, Katja Frieler, and Jacob Schewe
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3467–3485, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3467-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3467-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In 2019, Cyclone Idai displaced more than 478 000 people in Mozambique. In our study, we use coastal flood modeling and satellite imagery to construct a counterfactual cyclone event without the effects of climate change. We show that 12 600–14 900 displacements can be attributed to sea level rise and the intensification of storm wind speeds due to global warming. Our impact attribution study is the first one on human displacement and one of very few for a low-income country.
Olivier Cavalié, Frédéric Cappa, and Béatrice Pinel-Puysségur
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3235–3246, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3235-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3235-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Coastal areas are fragile ecosystems that face multiple hazards. In this study, we measured the downward motion of the Nice Côte d'Azur Airport (France) that was built on reclaimed area and found that it has subsided from 16 mm yr-1 in the 1990s to 8 mm yr-1 today. A continuous remote monitoring of the platform will provide key data for a detailed investigation of future subsidence maps, and this contribution will help to evaluate the potential failure of part of the airport platform.
Wagner L. L. Costa, Karin R. Bryan, and Giovanni Coco
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3125–3146, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3125-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3125-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
For predicting flooding events at the coast, topo-bathymetric data are essential. However, elevation data can be unavailable. To tackle this issue, recent efforts have centred on the use of satellite-derived topography (SDT) and bathymetry (SDB). This work is aimed at evaluating their accuracy and use for flooding prediction in enclosed estuaries. Results show that the use of SDT and SDB in numerical modelling can produce similar predictions when compared to the surveyed elevation data.
Joshua Kiesel, Marvin Lorenz, Marcel König, Ulf Gräwe, and Athanasios T. Vafeidis
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2961–2985, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2961-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2961-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Among the Baltic Sea littoral states, Germany is anticipated to experience considerable damage as a result of increased coastal flooding due to sea-level rise (SLR). Here we apply a new modelling framework to simulate how flooding along the German Baltic Sea coast may change until 2100 if dikes are not upgraded. We find that the study region is highly exposed to flooding, and we emphasise the importance of current plans to update coastal protection in the future.
Zhang Haixia, Cheng Meng, and Fang Weihua
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2697–2717, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2697-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2697-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Simultaneous storm surge and waves can cause great damage due to cascading effects. Quantitative joint probability analysis is critical to determine their optimal protection design values. The joint probability of the surge and wave for the eastern coasts of Leizhou Peninsula and Hainan are estimated with a Gumbel copula based on 62 years of numerically simulated data, and the optimal design values under various joint return periods are derived using the non-linear programming method.
Clare Lewis, Tim Smyth, David Williams, Jess Neumann, and Hannah Cloke
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2531–2546, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2531-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2531-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Meteotsunami are globally occurring water waves initiated by atmospheric disturbances. Previous research has suggested that in the UK, meteotsunami are a rare phenomenon and tend to occur in the summer months. This article presents a revised and updated catalogue of 98 meteotsunami that occurred between 1750 and 2022. Results also demonstrate a larger percentage of winter events and a geographical pattern highlighting the
hotspotregions that experience these events.
Melissa Wood, Ivan D. Haigh, Quan Quan Le, Hung Nghia Nguyen, Hoang Ba Tran, Stephen E. Darby, Robert Marsh, Nikolaos Skliris, Joël J.-M. Hirschi, Robert J. Nicholls, and Nadia Bloemendaal
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2475–2504, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2475-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2475-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We used a novel database of simulated tropical cyclone tracks to explore whether typhoon-induced storm surges present a future flood risk to low-lying coastal communities around the South China Sea. We found that future climate change is likely to change tropical cyclone behaviour to an extent that this increases the severity and frequency of storm surges to Vietnam, southern China, and Thailand. Consequently, coastal flood defences need to be reviewed for resilience against this future hazard.
Sang-Guk Yum, Moon-Soo Song, and Manik Das Adhikari
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2449–2474, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2449-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2449-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This study performed analysis on typhoon-induced coastal morphodynamics for the Mokpo coast. Wetland vegetation was severely impacted by Typhoon Soulik, with 87.35 % of shoreline transects experiencing seaward migration. This result highlights the fact that sediment resuspension controls the land alteration process over the typhoon period. The land accretion process dominated during the pre- to post-typhoon periods.
Olle Räty, Marko Laine, Ulpu Leijala, Jani Särkkä, and Milla M. Johansson
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2403–2418, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2403-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2403-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We studied annual maximum sea levels in the Finnish coastal region. Our aim was to better quantify the uncertainty in them compared to previous studies. Using four statistical models, we found out that hierarchical models, which shared information on sea-level extremes across Finnish tide gauges, had lower uncertainty in their results in comparison with tide-gauge-specific fits. These models also suggested that the shape of the distribution for extreme sea levels is similar on the Finnish coast.
Christian Ferrarin, Florian Pantillon, Silvio Davolio, Marco Bajo, Mario Marcello Miglietta, Elenio Avolio, Diego S. Carrió, Ioannis Pytharoulis, Claudio Sanchez, Platon Patlakas, Juan Jesús González-Alemán, and Emmanouil Flaounas
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2273–2287, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2273-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2273-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The combined use of meteorological and ocean models enabled the analysis of extreme sea conditions driven by Medicane Ianos, which hit the western coast of Greece on 18 September 2020, flooding and damaging the coast. The large spread associated with the ensemble highlighted the high model uncertainty in simulating such an extreme weather event. The different simulations have been used for outlining hazard scenarios that represent a fundamental component of the coastal risk assessment.
Charline Dalinghaus, Giovanni Coco, and Pablo Higuera
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2157–2169, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2157-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2157-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Wave setup is a critical component of coastal flooding. Consequently, understanding and being able to predict wave setup is vital to protect coastal resources and the population living near the shore. Here, we applied machine learning to improve the accuracy of present predictors of wave setup. The results show that the new predictors outperform existing formulas demonstrating the capability of machine learning models to provide a physically sound description of wave setup.
Leigh Richard MacPherson, Arne Arns, Svenja Fischer, Fernando J. Méndez, and Jürgen Jensen
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1122, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1122, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Efficient adaptation planning to coastal flooding caused by extreme sea levels requires accurate assessments of the underlying hazard. Tide-gauge data alone is often insufficient for providing the desired accuracy but may be supplemented with historical information. We estimate extreme sea levels along the German Baltic coast and show that relying solely on tide-gauge data leads to underestimations. Incorporating historical information leads to improved estimates with reduced uncertainties.
Ina Teutsch, Markus Brühl, Ralf Weisse, and Sander Wahls
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2053–2073, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2053-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2053-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Rogue waves exceed twice the significant wave height. They occur more often than expected in the shallow waters off Norderney. When applying a nonlinear Fourier transform for the Korteweg–de Vries equation to wave data from Norderney, we found differences in the soliton spectra of time series with and without rogue waves. A strongly outstanding soliton in the spectrum indicated an enhanced probability for rogue waves. We could attribute spectral solitons to the measured rogue waves.
Clare Lewis, Tim Smyth, Jess Neumann, and Hannah Cloke
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1147, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1147, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Meteotsunami are the result of atmospheric disturbances creating water waves which can impact coastlines causing injury and loss to life and assets. This paper introduces a novel intensity index to allow for the quantification of these events at the shoreline which has the potential to assist in the field of natural hazard assessment. Trialled in the UK with a view to global applicability and to becoming a widely accepted standard in coastal planning, meteotsunami forecasting and early warning.
Philipp Heinrich, Stefan Hagemann, Ralf Weisse, Corinna Schrum, Ute Daewel, and Lidia Gaslikova
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1967–1985, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1967-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1967-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
High seawater levels co-occurring with high river discharges have the potential to cause destructive flooding. For the past decades, the number of such compound events was larger than expected by pure chance for most of the west-facing coasts in Europe. Additionally rivers with smaller catchments showed higher numbers. In most cases, such events were associated with a large-scale weather pattern characterized by westerly winds and strong rainfall.
Alexander Böhme, Birgit Gerkensmeier, Benedikt Bratz, Clemens Krautwald, Olaf Müller, Nils Goseberg, and Gabriele Gönnert
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1947–1966, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1947-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1947-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
External surges in the North Sea are caused by low-pressure cells travelling over the northeast Atlantic. They influence extreme water levels on the German coast and have to be considered in the design process of coastal defence structures. This study collects data about external surges from 1995–2020 and analyses their causes, behaviours and potential trends. External surges often occur less than 72 h apart, enabling a single storm surge to be influenced by more than one external surge.
Kenta Tozato, Shuji Moriguchi, Shinsuke Takase, Yu Otake, Michael R. Motley, Anawat Suppasri, and Kenjiro Terada
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1891–1909, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1891-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1891-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This study presents a framework that efficiently investigates the optimal placement of facilities probabilistically based on advanced numerical simulation. Surrogate models for the numerical simulation are constructed using a mode decomposition technique. Monte Carlo simulations using the surrogate models are performed to evaluate failure probabilities. Using the results of the Monte Carlo simulations and the genetic algorithm, optimal placements can be investigated probabilistically.
Job C. M. Dullaart, Sanne Muis, Hans de Moel, Philip J. Ward, Dirk Eilander, and Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1847–1862, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1847-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1847-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Coastal flooding is driven by storm surges and high tides and can be devastating. To gain an understanding of the threat posed by coastal flooding and to identify areas that are especially at risk, now and in the future, it is crucial to accurately model coastal inundation and assess the coastal flood hazard. Here, we present a global dataset with hydrographs that represent the typical evolution of an extreme sea level. These can be used to model coastal inundation more accurately.
Elin Andrée, Jian Su, Morten Andreas Dahl Larsen, Martin Drews, Martin Stendel, and Kristine Skovgaard Madsen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1817–1834, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1817-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1817-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
When natural processes interact, they may compound each other. The combined effect can amplify extreme sea levels, such as when a storm occurs at a time when the water level is already higher than usual. We used numerical modelling of a record-breaking storm surge in 1872 to show that other prior sea-level conditions could have further worsened the outcome. Our research highlights the need to consider the physical context of extreme sea levels in measures to reduce coastal flood risk.
Ekaterina Didenkulova, Ira Didenkulova, and Igor Medvedev
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1653–1663, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1653-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1653-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The paper is dedicated to freak wave accidents which happened in the world ocean in 2005–2021 and that were described in mass media sources. The database accounts for 429 events, all of which resulted in ship or coastal and offshore structure damage and/or human losses. In agreement with each freak wave event, we put background wave and wind conditions extracted from the climate reanalysis ERA5. We analyse their statistics and discuss the favourable conditions for freak wave occurrence.
Havu Pellikka, Milla M. Johansson, Maaria Nordman, and Kimmo Ruosteenoja
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1613–1630, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1613-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1613-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We explore the rate of past and future sea level rise at the Finnish coast, northeastern Baltic Sea, in 1901–2100. For this analysis, we use tide gauge observations, modelling results, and a probabilistic method to combine information from several sea level rise projections. We provide projections of local mean sea level by 2100 as probability distributions. The results can be used in adaptation planning in various sectors with different risk tolerance, e.g. land use planning or nuclear safety.
Carlos Corela, Afonso Loureiro, José Luis Duarte, Luis Matias, Tiago Rebelo, and Tiago Bartolomeu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1433–1451, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1433-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1433-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We show that ocean-bottom seismometers are controlled by bottom currents, but these are not always a function of the tidal forcing. Instead we suggest that the ocean bottom has a flow regime resulting from two possible contributions: the permanent low-frequency bottom current and the tidal current along the full tidal cycle, between neap and spring tides. In the short-period noise band the ocean current generates harmonic tremors that corrupt the dataset records.
Chu-En Hsu, Katherine Serafin, Xiao Yu, Christie Hegermiller, John C. Warner, and Maitane Olabarrieta
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-49, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-49, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
We analyzed how tropical cyclone (TC) characteristics affect total water level components. We used a numerical model to simulate surges and wind waves in the South Atlantic Bight (SAB) during hurricanes Matthew 2016, Dorian 2019, and Isaias 2020. We compared the water levels along the SAB. As the TCs approached, the water levels were affected by the instantaneous wind speed and the TC locations. To quantify the individual effects of TC properties on water levels, further analysis is required.
Chen Chen, Charles Koll, Haizhong Wang, and Michael K. Lindell
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 733–749, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-733-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-733-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This paper uses empirical-data-based simulation to analyze how to evacuate efficiently from disasters. We find that departure delay time and evacuation decision have significant impacts on evacuation results. Evacuation results are more sensitive to walking speed, departure delay time, evacuation participation, and destinations than to other variables. This model can help authorities to prioritize resources for hazard education, community disaster preparedness, and resilience plans.
Maude Biguenet, Eric Chaumillon, Pierre Sabatier, Antoine Bastien, Emeline Geba, Fabien Arnaud, Thibault Coulombier, and Nathalie Feuillet
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2022-262, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2022-262, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
This work documents the impact of Hurricane Irma (2017) on the Codrington barrier and lagoon on Barbuda Island. Irma caused two wide breaching in the sandy barrier, which remained unopened for 250 years. The thick and extensive sand sheet on the top of the lagoon fill was attributed to Irma. This unique deposit in a 3700 years record confirms Irma's exceptional character. This case study illustrates the consequences of high-intensity hurricanes in low-lying islands in a global warming context.
Ariadna Martín, Angel Amores, Alejandro Orfila, Tim Toomey, and Marta Marcos
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 587–600, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-587-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-587-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Tropical cyclones (TCs) are among the potentially most hazardous phenomena affecting the coasts of the Caribbean Sea. This work simulates the coastal hazards in terms of sea surface elevation and waves that originate through the passage of these events. A set of 1000 TCs have been simulated, obtained from a set of synthetic cyclones that are consistent with present-day climate. Given the large number of hurricanes used, robust values of extreme sea levels and waves are computed along the coasts.
An-Chi Cheng, Anawat Suppasri, Kwanchai Pakoksung, and Fumihiko Imamura
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 447–479, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-447-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-447-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Consecutive earthquakes occurred offshore of southern Taiwan on 26 December 2006. This event revealed unusual tsunami generation and propagation, as well as unexpected consequences for the southern Taiwanese coast (i.e., amplified waves and prolonged durations). This study aims to elucidate the source characteristics of the 2006 tsunami and the important behaviors responsible for tsunami hazards in Taiwan such as wave trapping and shelf resonance.
Jean Roger, Bernard Pelletier, Aditya Gusman, William Power, Xiaoming Wang, David Burbidge, and Maxime Duphil
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 393–414, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-393-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-393-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
On 10 February 2021 a magnitude 7.7 earthquake occurring at the southernmost part of the Vanuatu subduction zone triggered a regional tsunami that was recorded on many coastal gauges and DART stations of the south-west Pacific region. Beginning with a review of the tectonic setup and its implication in terms of tsunami generation in the region, this study aims to show our ability to reproduce a small tsunami with different types of rupture models and to discuss a larger magnitude 8.2 scenario.
Kathrin Wahle, Emil V. Stanev, and Joanna Staneva
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 415–428, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-415-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-415-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Knowledge of what causes maximum water levels is often key in coastal management. Processes, such as storm surge and atmospheric forcing, alter the predicted tide. Whilst most of these processes are modeled in present-day ocean forecasting, there is still a need for a better understanding of situations where modeled and observed water levels deviate from each other. Here, we will use machine learning to detect such anomalies within a network of sea-level observations in the North Sea.
Chuan Li, H. Tuba Özkan-Haller, Gabriel García Medina, Robert A. Holman, Peter Ruggiero, Treena M. Jensen, David B. Elson, and William R. Schneider
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 107–126, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-107-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-107-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In this work, we examine a set of observed extreme, non-earthquake-related and non-landslide-related wave runup events. Runup events with similar characteristics have previously been attributed to trapped waves, atmospheric disturbances, and abrupt breaking of long waves. However, we find that none of these mechanisms were likely at work in the observations we examined. We show that instead, these runup events were more likely due to energetic growth of bound infragravity waves.
Shan Liu, Xianwu Shi, Qiang Liu, Jun Tan, Yuxi Sun, Qingrong Liu, and Haoshuang Guo
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 127–138, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-127-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-127-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This study proposes a quantitative method for the determination of warning water levels. The proposed method is a multidimensional scale, centered on the consideration of various factors that characterize various coastlines. The implications of our study are not only scientific, as we provide a method for water level determination that is rooted in the scientific method (and reproducible across various contexts beyond China), but they are also deeply practical.
Jaap H. Nienhuis, Jana R. Cox, Joey O'Dell, Douglas A. Edmonds, and Paolo Scussolini
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 4087–4101, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-4087-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-4087-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Humans build levees to protect themselves against floods. We need to know where they are to correctly predict flooding, for example from sea level rise. Here we have looked through documents to find levees, and checked that they exist using satellite imagery. We developed a global levee map, available at www.opendelve.eu, and we found that 24 % of people in deltas are protected by levees.
Alec Torres-Freyermuth, Gabriela Medellín, Jorge A. Kurczyn, Roger Pacheco-Castro, Jaime Arriaga, Christian M. Appendini, María Eugenia Allende-Arandía, Juan A. Gómez, Gemma L. Franklin, and Jorge Zavala-Hidalgo
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 4063–4085, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-4063-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-4063-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Barrier islands in tropical regions are prone to coastal flooding and erosion during hurricane events. The Yucatán coast was impacted by hurricanes Gamma and Delta. Inner shelf, coastal, and inland observations were acquired. Beach morphology changes show alongshore gradients. Flooding occurred on the back barrier due to heavy inland rain and the coastal aquifer's confinement. Modeling systems failed to reproduce the coastal hydrodynamic response due to uncertainties in the boundary conditions.
Panagiotis Athanasiou, Ap van Dongeren, Alessio Giardino, Michalis Vousdoukas, Jose A. A. Antolinez, and Roshanka Ranasinghe
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3897–3915, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3897-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3897-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Sandy dunes protect the hinterland from coastal flooding during storms. Thus, models that can efficiently predict dune erosion are critical for coastal zone management and early warning systems. Here we develop such a model for the Dutch coast based on machine learning techniques, allowing for dune erosion estimations in a matter of seconds relative to available computationally expensive models. Validation of the model against benchmark data and observations shows good agreement.
María Teresa Pedrosa-González, José Manuel González-Vida, Jesús Galindo-Záldivar, Sergio Ortega, Manuel Jesús Castro, David Casas, and Gemma Ercilla
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3839–3858, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3839-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3839-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The L-ML-HySEA (Landslide Multilayer Hyperbolic Systems and Efficient Algorithms) model of the tsunami triggered by the Storfjorden LS-1 landslide provides new insights into the sliding mechanism and bathymetry controlling the propagation, amplitude values and shoaling effects as well as coastal impact times. This case study provides new perspectives on tsunami hazard assessment in polar margins, where global climatic change and its related ocean warming may contribute to landslide trigger.
Cuneyt Yavuz, Kutay Yilmaz, and Gorkem Onder
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3725–3736, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3725-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3725-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Even if the coincidence of flood and tsunami hazards may be experienced once in a blue moon, it should also be investigated due to the uncertainty of the time of occurrence of these natural hazards. The objective of this study is to reveal a statistical methodology to evaluate the aggregate potential hazard levels due to flood hazards with the presence of earthquake-triggered tsunamis. The proposed methodology is applied to Fethiye city, located on the Western Mediterranean coast of Turkey.
Damiano Baldan, Elisa Coraci, Franco Crosato, Maurizio Ferla, Andrea Bonometto, and Sara Morucci
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3663–3677, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3663-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3663-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Extreme-event analysis is widely used to provide information for the design of coastal protection structures. Non-stationarity due to sea level rise can affect such estimates. Using different methods on a long time series of sea level data, we show that estimates of the magnitude of extreme events in the future can be inexact due to relative sea level rise. Thus, considering non-stationarity is important when analyzing extreme-sea-level events.
Umesh Pranavam Ayyappan Pillai, Nadia Pinardi, Ivan Federico, Salvatore Causio, Francesco Trotta, Silvia Unguendoli, and Andrea Valentini
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3413–3433, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3413-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3413-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The study presents the application of high-resolution coastal modelling for wave hindcasting on the Emilia-Romagna coastal belt. The generated coastal databases which provide an understanding of the prevailing wind-wave characteristics can aid in predicting coastal impacts.
Jeremy Rohmer, Deborah Idier, Remi Thieblemont, Goneri Le Cozannet, and François Bachoc
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3167–3182, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3167-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3167-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We quantify the influence of wave–wind characteristics, offshore water level and sea level rise (projected up to 2200) on the occurrence of flooding events at Gâvres, French Atlantic coast. Our results outline the overwhelming influence of sea level rise over time compared to the others. By showing the robustness of our conclusions to the errors in the estimation procedure, our approach proves to be valuable for exploring and characterizing uncertainties in assessments of future flooding.
Edgar U. Zorn, Aiym Orynbaikyzy, Simon Plank, Andrey Babeyko, Herlan Darmawan, Ismail Fata Robbany, and Thomas R. Walter
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3083–3104, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3083-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3083-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Tsunamis caused by volcanoes are a challenge for warning systems as they are difficult to predict and detect. In Southeast Asia there are many active volcanoes close to the coast, so it is important to identify the most likely volcanoes to cause tsunamis in the future. For this purpose, we developed a point-based score system, allowing us to rank volcanoes by the hazard they pose. The results may be used to improve local monitoring and preparedness in the affected areas.
Jorge León, Alejandra Gubler, and Alonso Ogueda
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2857–2878, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2857-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2857-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Our research focuses on how the geophysical characteristics of coastal cities can determine evacuees' vulnerability during a tsunami evacuation. We identify, analyse, and rank some of those essential characteristics by examining seven case studies in Chile through computer-based inundation, evacuation, and statistical regressive modelling. These results could lead to urban planning guidelines to enhance future evacuations and increase resilience to global tsunamis.
Azucena Román-de la Sancha, Rodolfo Silva, Omar S. Areu-Rangel, Manuel Gerardo Verduzco-Zapata, Edgar Mendoza, Norma Patricia López-Acosta, Alexandra Ossa, and Silvia García
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2589–2609, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2589-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2589-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Transport networks in coastal urban areas are vulnerable to seismic events, with damage likely due to both ground motions and tsunami loading. The paper presents an approach that captures the earthquake–tsunami effects on transport infrastructure in a coastal area, taking into consideration the combined strains of the two events. The model is applied to a case in Manzanillo, Mexico, using ground motion records of the 1995 earthquake–tsunami event.
Tien-Chi Liu, Tso-Ren Wu, and Shu-Kun Hsu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2517–2530, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2517-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2517-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The findings from historical reports and numerical studies suggest the 1781 Jiateng Harbor flooding and the 1782 tsunami should be two independent incidents. Local tsunamis generated in southwest Taiwan could be responsible for the 1781 flooding, while the existence of the 1782 tsunami remains doubtful. With the documents of a storm event on 22 May 1782, the possibility that the significant water level of the 1782 tsunami was caused by storm surges or multiple hazards could not be ignored.
Mariana C. A. Clare, Tim W. B. Leijnse, Robert T. McCall, Ferdinand L. M. Diermanse, Colin J. Cotter, and Matthew D. Piggott
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2491–2515, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2491-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2491-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Assessing uncertainty is computationally expensive because it requires multiple runs of expensive models. We take the novel approach of assessing uncertainty from coastal flooding using a multilevel multifidelity (MLMF) method which combines the efficiency of less accurate models with the accuracy of more expensive models at different resolutions. This significantly reduces the computational cost but maintains accuracy, making previously unfeasible real-world studies possible.
Elke Magda Inge Meyer, Ralf Weisse, Iris Grabemann, Birger Tinz, and Robert Scholz
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2419–2432, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2419-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2419-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The severe storm tide of 13 March 1906 is still one of the most severe storm events for the East Frisian coast. Water levels from this event are considered for designing dike lines. For the first time, we investigate this event with a hydrodynamic model by forcing with atmospheric data from 147 ensemble members from century reanalysis projects and a manual reconstruction of the synoptic situation. Water levels were notably high due to a coincidence of high spring tides and high surge.
Julius Schlumberger, Christian Ferrarin, Sebastiaan N. Jonkman, Manuel Andres Diaz Loaiza, Alessandro Antonini, and Sandra Fatorić
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2381–2400, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2381-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2381-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Flooding has serious impacts on the old town of Venice. This paper presents a framework combining a flood model with a flood-impact model to support improving protection against future floods in Venice despite the recently built MOSE barrier. Applying the framework to seven plausible flood scenarios, it was found that individual protection has a significant damage-mediating effect if the MOSE barrier does not operate as anticipated. Contingency planning thus remains important in Venice.
Cited articles
Abbott, T.: Shifting shorelines and political winds – The complexities of implementing the simple idea of shoreline setbacks for ocean front developments in Maui, Hawaii, Ocean Coast. Manage., 73, 13–21, 2013.
Alexandrakis, G., Manasakis, C., and Kampanis, N. A.: Valuating the effects of beach erosion to tourism revenue. A management perspective, Ocean Coast. Manage., 111, 1–11, 2015.
Allenbach, K., Garonna, I., Herold, C., Monioudi, I., Giuliani, G., Lehmann, and Velegrakis, A. F.: Black Sea beach vulnerability to sea level rise, Environ. Sci. Policy, 46, 95–109, 2015.
Androulidakis, Y. S., Kourafalou, V. H., Krestenitis, Y. N., and Zervakis, V.: Variability of deep water mass characteristics in the North Aegean Sea: The role of lateral inputs and atmospheric conditions, Deep-Sea Res. I, 67, 55–72, 2012.
Androulidakis, Y. S., Kombiadou, K. D., Makris, C. V., Baltikas, V. N., and Krestenitis, Y. N.: Storm surges in the Mediterranean Sea: Variability and trends under future climatic conditions, Dynam. Atmos. Oceans, 71, 56–82, 2015.
Bi, X., Lu, Q., and Pan, X.: Coastal use accelerated the regional sea-level rise, Ocean Coast. Manage., 82, 1–6, 2013.
Bosom, E. and Jiménez, J. A.: Storm-induced coastal hazard assessment at regional scale: application to Catalonia (NW Mediterranean), Adv. Geosci., 26, 83–87, https://doi.org/10.5194/adgeo-26-83-2010, 2010.
Bruun, P.: The Bruun Rule of erosion by sea level rise: A discussion on large-scale two- and three-dimensional usages, J. Coastal Res., 4, 622–648, 1988.
Calafat, F. M., Chambers, D. P., and Tsimplis, M. N.: On the ability of global sea level reconstructions to determine trends and variability, J. Geophys. Res., 119, 7840–7853, 2014.
Cisneros, H. M. A., Revollo-Sarmiento, N. V., Delrieux, C. A., Piccolo, M. C., and Perillo, G. M. E.: Beach carrying capacity assessment through image processing tools for coastal management, Ocean Coast. Manage., 130, 138–147, 2016.
Conte, D. and Lionello, P.: Characteristics of large positive and negative surges in the Mediterranean sea and their attenuation in future climate scenarios, Global Planet. Change, 111, 159–173, 2013.
Corbella, S. and Stretch, D. D.: Predicting coastal erosion trends using non-stationary statistics and process-based models, Coast. Eng., 70, 40–49, 2012.
Dean, R. G.: Equilibrium beach profiles: characteristics and applications, J. Coastal Res., 7, 53–84, 1991.
Dean, R. G.: Beach nourishment: Theory and practice, in: Advanced Series on Ocean Eng., World Scientific Publishing Company, Singapore, 18, 399 pp., 2002.
Defeo, O. and McLachlan, A.: Global patterns in sandy beach macrofauna: Species richness, abundance, biomass and body size, Geomorphology, 199, 106–114, 2013.
Ding, Y., Kuiry, S. N., Elgohry, M., Jia, Y., Altinakar, M. S., and Yeh, K.-C.: Impact assessment of sea-level rise and hazardous storms on coasts and estuaries using integrated processes model, Ocean Eng., 71, 74–95, 2013.
ECLAC: An assessment of the economic impact of climate change on the transportation sector in Barbados, UN Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean ECLAC, Technical Report LC/CAR/L309, 44 pp., 2011.
Edelman, T.: Dune erosion during storm conditions, in: Proceedings of the 13th International Conference on Coast. Eng., ASCE, 1305–1312, 1972.
Eurosion: Living with coastal erosion in Europe: Sediment and Space for Sustainability, Part II, DG Environment, EC, available at: http://www.eurosion.org/reports-online/part2.pdf (last access: March 2017), 29 May 2004.
Gallop, S. L., Bosserelle, C., Eliot, I., and Pattiaratchi, C. B.: The influence of limestone reefs on storm erosion and recovery of a perched beach, Cont. Shelf Res., 47, 16–27, 2012.
Ghermandi, A. and Nunes, P. A. L. D.: A global map of coastal recreation values: Results from a spatially explicit meta-analysis, Ecol. Econ., 86, 1–15, 2013.
Gibbs, M. T., Thébaud, O., and Lorenz, D.: A risk model to describe the behaviours of actors in the houses falling into the sea problem, Ocean Coast. Manage., 80, 73–79, 2013.
Gopalakrishnan, S., Smith, M. D., Slott, J. M., and Brad Murray, A.: The value of disappearing beaches: A hedonic pricing model with endogenous beach width, J. Environ. Econ. Manag., 61, 297–310, 2011.
Hall, C. M., Scott, D., and Gössling, S.: The Primacy of Climate Change for Sustainable International Tourism, Sustain. Dev., 21, 112–121, 2013.
Hinkel, J., Nicholls, R. J., Vafeidis, A. T., Tol, R. S. J., and Avagianou, T.: Assessing risk of and adaptation to sea-level rise in the European Union: An application of DIVA, Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, 15, 703–719, 2010.
Hinkel, J., Lincke, D., Vafeidis, A. T., Perrette, M., Nicholls, R. G., Tol, R. S., Marzeion, B., Fettweis, X., Ionescu, C., and Levermann, A.: Coastal flood damages and adaptation costs under 21st century sea-level rise, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 111, 3292–3297, 2014.
Hoeke, R. K., McInnes, K. L., Kruger, J. C., McNaught, R. J., Hunter, J. R., and Smithers, S. G.: Widespread inundation of Pacific islands triggered by distant-source wind-waves, Global Planet. Change, 108, 128–138, 2013.
IOBE: The impact of tourism on Greek Economy, Foundation for Economic & Industrial Research, 43 pp., available at: http://iobe.gr/docs/research/RES_05_E_01092012REP_GR.pdf (last access: March 2017), 2012 (in Greek).
IPCC: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis, Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by: Stocker, T. F., Qin, D., Plattner, G.-K., Tignor, M., Allen, S. K., Boschung, J., Nauels, A., Xia, Y., Bex, V., and Midgley, P. M., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, New York, USA, 2013.
IPCC SREX: Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation, A Special Report of Working Groups I and II of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IPCC, edited by: Field, C. B., Barros, V., Stocker, T. F., Qin, D., Dokken, D. J., Ebi, K. L., Mastrandrea, M. D., Mach, K. J., Plattner, G.-K., Allen, S. K., Tignor, M., and Midgley, P. M., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, New York, USA, 582 pp., 2012.
Jiménez, J. A., Bosom, E., Valdemoro, H. I., and Guillén, J.: Storm-induced damages along the Catalan coast (NW Mediterranean) during the period 1958–2008, Geomorphology, 143–144, 24–33, 2012.
Karambas, T.: Prediction of sediment transport in the swash zone by using a nonlinear wave model, Cont. Shelf Res., 26, 599–609, 2006.
Karambas, T. V. and Koutitas, C.: Surf and swash zone morphology evolution induced by nonlinear waves, J. Waterw. Port C.-ASCE, 128, 102–113, 2002.
Khouakhi, A., Snoussi, M., Niazi, S., and Raji, O.: Vulnerability assessment of Al Hoceima bay (Moroccan Mediterranean coast): a coastal management tool to reduce potential impacts of sea-level rise and storm surges, J. Coastal Res., SI 65, 968–973, 2013.
Kontogianni, A. D., Damigos, D., Tourkolias, C., Vousdoukas, M. I., Velegrakis, A. F., Zanou, B., and Skourtos, M.: The social cost of coastal erosion: eliciting beach users' willingness to pay for protecting European beaches from beachrock processes, Ocean Coast. Manage., 98, 167–175, 2014.
Krestenitis, Y. N., Androulidakis, Y. S., Kontos, Y. N., and Georgakopoulos, G.: Coastal inundation in the north-eastern Mediterranean coastal zone due to storm surge events, Journal of Coastal Conservation, 15, 353–368, 2011.
Larson, M. and Kraus, N. C.: SBEACH: numerical model for simulating storm-induced beach change; report 1: empirical foundation and model development, Technical Report – US Army Coast. Eng. Research Center, Technical Report CERC-89-9, 115 pp., 1989.
Leont'yev, I. O.: Numerical modelling of beach erosion during storm event, Coast. Eng., 29, 187–200, 1996.
Mamoutos, G., Tragou, E., and Kakagiannis, G.: Mean sea level changes in the Greek Seas, in 6th Panhellenic Conference in Management and Improvement of Coastal Zones, Athens, Greece, November 2014, 335–344, 2014.
Marcos, M., Jordà, G., Gomis, D., and Pérez, B.: Changes in storm surges in Southern Europe from a regional model under climate change scenarios, Global Planet. Change, 77, 116–128, 2011.
McArthur, S.: Why Carrying Capacity Should be a Last Resort, 2015, in: Challenges in Tourism Research, edited by: Singh, T. V., Channel View Publications, 288–302, 2015.
McLeod, E., Poulter, B., Hinkel, J., Reyes, E., and Salm, R.: Sea-level rise impact models and environmental conservation: A review of models and their applications, Ocean Coast. Manage., 53, 507–517, 2010.
Monioudi, I. N., Karditsa, A., Chatzipavlis, A., Alexandrakis, G., Andreadis, O. P., Velegrakis, A. F, Poulos, S. E., Ghionis, G., Petrakis, S., Sifnioti, D., Hasiotis, T., Lipakis, M., Kampanis, N., Karambas, T., and Marinos, E.: Assessment of the vulnerability of the eastern Cretan beaches (Greece) to sea level rise, Reg. Environ. Change, 16, 1951–1962, 2016.
Neumann, B., Vafeidis, A. T., Zimmerman, J., and Nicholls, R. J.: Future Coastal Population Growth and Exposure to Sea-Level Rise and Coastal Flooding – A Global Assessment, PLoS ONE, 10, e0118571, https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0118571, 2015.
Nicholls, R. J. and Cazenave, A.: Sea-level rise and its impact on coastal zones, Science, 328, 1517–1520, 2010.
Parker, A., Saad Saleem, M., and Lawson, M.: Sea-level trend analysis for coastal management, Ocean Coast. Manage., 73, 63–81, 2013.
Paula, D. P., Dias, J. M. A., Ferreira, O., and Morais, J. O.: High-rise development of the sea-front at Fortaleza (Brazil): Perspectives on its valuation and consequences, Ocean Coast. Manage., 77, 14–23, 2013.
Peduzzi, P.: Sand, rarer than one thinks, Article reproduced from United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) Global Environmental Alert Service (GEAS), Environmental Development, 11, 208–218, 2014.
Peduzzi, P., Velegrakis, A. F., Estrella, M., and Chatenoux, B.: Integrating the role of ecosytems in disaster risk and vulnerability assessments: Lessons from the Risk and Vulnerability Assessment Methodology Development Project (RiVAMP) in Negril Jamaica, in: The role of Ecosystems in Disaster Risk Reduction, edited by: Renaud, F. G., United Nations University Press, ISBN-13: 978-9280812213, 109–139, 2013.
Phillips, M. R. and Jones, A. L.: Erosion and tourism infrastructure in the coastal zone: Problems, consequences and management, Tourism Manage., 27, 517–524, 2006.
Poulos, S. E.: Origin and distribution of the terrigenous component of the unconsolidated surface sediment of the Aegean floor: A synthesis, Cont. Shelf Res., 29, 2045–2060, 2009.
Poulos, S. E., Ghionis G., and Maroukian, H.: Sea-level rise trends in the Attico–Cycladic region (Aegean Sea) during the last 5000 years, Geomorphology, 107, 10–17, 2009.
Prinos, P.: Climate change effects on the Greek seas and coastal areas – the research project THALIS-CCSEAWAVS, in: 6th Panhellenic Conference on Coastal Zones Management and Improvement, Athens, 24–27 November 2014, 315–324, 2014.
Rajan, B., Varghese, V. M., and Pradeepkumar, A. P.: Beach Carrying Capacity Analysis for Sustainable Tourism Development in the South West Coast of India, Environmental Research, Engineering and Management, 1, 67–73, 2013.
Ramieri, E., Hartley, A., Barbanti, A., Duarte Santos, F., Laihonen, P., Marinova, N., and Santini, M.: Methods for assessing coastal vulnerability to climate change, ETC CCA Background Paper, Copenhagen (DK) 8–9 June 2011, European Topic Centre on Climate Change Impacts, Vulnerability and Adaptation European Environment Agency, 76 pp., available at: http://www.oannes.org.pe/ (last access: March 2017), 2011.
Ranasinghe, R., Duong, T. M., Uhlenbrook, S., Roelvink, D., and Stive, M.: Climate-change impact assessment for inlet-interrupted coastlines, Nature Climate Change, 3, 83–87, 2013.
Roelvink, D., Reniers, A., Van Dongeren, A., Van Thiel de Vries, J., McCall, R., and Lescinski, J.: Modeling storm impacts on beaches, dunes and barrier islands, Coast. Eng., 56, 1133–1152, 2009.
Roelvink, D., Reniers, A., van Dongeren, A., van Thiel de Vries, J., Lescinski, J., and McCall, R.: Xbeach Model Description and Manual, Unesco-IHE Institute for Water Education, Deltares and Delft University of Technology, 106 pp., 2010.
Sano, M., Marchard, M., and Medina, R.: Coastal setbacks for the Mediterranean: a challenge for ICZM, Journal of Coastal Conservation, 14, 33–39, 2010.
SETE: Association of the Greek Touristic Businesses, http://sete.gr/el/statistika-vivliothiki/statistika/ (last access: March 2017), 2016.
Short, A. D. and Jackson, D. W. T.: Beach Morphodynamics, in: Treatise on Geomorphology, edited by: Shroder, J. and Sherman, D. J., 10, 106–129, 2013.
Skliris, N., Sofianos, S. S., Gkanasos, A., Axaopoulos, P., Mantziafou, A., and Vervatis, V.: Long-term sea surface temperature variability in the Aegean Sea, Advances in Oceanography and Limnology, 2, 125–139, 2011.
Smith, A. B. and Katz, R. W.: U.S. Billion-dollar Weather and Climate Disasters: Data Sources, Trends, Accuracy and Biases, Nat. Hazards, 67, 387–410, 2012.
Soukissian, T., Hatzinaki, M., Korres, G., Papadopoulos, A., Kallos, G., and Anadranistakis, E.: Wind and wave atlas of the Hellenic seas, Hellenic Centre for Marine Research Publications, HCMR, 2007.
Soukissian, T., Prospathopoulos, A., Hatzinaki, M., and Kabouridou, M.: Assessment of the wind and wave climate of the Hellenic Seas using 10-Year hindcast results, The Open Ocean Eng., 1, 1–12, 2008.
Stockdon, H. F., Holman, R. A., Howd, P. A., and Sallenger, J. A. H.: Empirical parameterization of setup, swash, and runup, Coast. Eng., 53, 573–588, 2006.
Theocharis, A., Georgopoulos, D., Lascaratos, A., and Nittis, K.: Water masses and circulation in the central region of the Eastern Mediterranean: Eastern Ionian, South Aegean and North West Levantine, 1986–1987, Deep-Sea Res. II, 40, 1121–1142, 1993.
Tsimplis, M., Marcos, M., Colin, J., Somot, S., Pascual, A., and Shaw, A. G. P.: Sea level variability in the Mediterranean Sea during the 1990 on the basis of two 2D and one 3D model, J. Marine Syst., 78, 109–123, 2009.
Tsimplis, M. N. and Shaw, A. G. P.: Seasonal sea level extremes in the Mediterranean Sea and at the Atlantic European coasts, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 10, 1457–1475, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-10-1457-2010, 2010.
Tsimplis, M. N., Calafat, F. M., Marcos, M., Jorda, G., Gomis, D., Fenoglio-Marc, L., Struglia, M. V., Josey, S. A., and Chambers, D. P.: The effect of the NAO on sea level and on mass changes in the Mediterranean Sea, J. Geophys. Res.-Oceans, 118, 944–952, 2013.
Tsoukala, V. K., Chondros, M., Kapelonis, Z. G., Martzikos, N., Lykou, A., Belibassakis, K., and Makropoulos, C.: An integrated wave modelling framework for extreme and rare events for climate change in coastal areas – the case of Rethymno, Crete, Oceanologia, 58, 71–89, 2016.
UNECE: Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation for International Transport Networks, Expert Group Report, ITC UN Economic Commission for Europe ECE/TRANS/238, 223 pp., available at: http://www.unece.org/fileadmin/DAM/trans/main/wp5/publications/climate_change_2014.pdf (last access: March 2017), 2013.
Valdemoro, H. I. and Jiménez, J. A.: The influence of shoreline dynamics on the use and exploitation of Mediterranean tourist beaches, Coast. Manage., 34, 405–423, 2006.
Velegrakis, A. F, Vousdoukas, M. I., Andreadis, O., Pasakalidou, E., Adamakis, G., and Meligonitis, R.: Impacts of dams on their downstream beaches: A case study from Eresos coastal basin, Island of Lesvos, Greece, Mar. Georesour. Geotec., 26, 350–371, 2008.
Velegrakis, A. F., Ballay, A., Poulos, S., Radzevičius, R., Bellec, V., and Manso, F.: European marine aggregates resources: Origins, usage, and mining techniques, J. Coastal Res., SI 51, 1–14, 2010.
Velegrakis, A. F., Trygonis, V., Chatzipavlis, A. E., Karambas, T., Vousdoukas, M. I., Ghionis, G., Monioudi, I. N., Hasiotis, T., Andreadis, O., and Psarros, F.: Shoreline variability of an urban beach fronted by a beachrock reef from video imagery, Nat. Hazards, 83, 201–222, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-016-2415-9, 2016.
Vousdoukas, M. I., Velegrakis, A. F., and Karambas, T. V.: Morphology and sedimentology of a microtidal beach with beachrocks: Vatera, Lesbos, NE Mediterranean, Cont. Shelf Res., 29, 1937–1947, 2009a.
Vousdoukas, M. I., Velegrakis, A. F., Dimou, K., Zervakis, V., and Conley, D. C.: Wave run-up observations in microtidal, sediment-starved beaches of the Eastern Mediterranean, J. Marine Syst., 78, 537–547, 2009b.
Vousdoukas, M. I., Velegrakis, A. F, Kontogianni, A., and Makrykosta, N. E.: Implications of the cementation of beach sediments (beachrock formation) for the recreational use of the beach, Tourism Manage., 30, 544–552, 2009c.
Vousdoukas, M. I., Velegrakis, A. F., Paul, M., Dimitriadis, C., Makrykosta, E., and Koutsoubas, D.: Field observations and modeling of wave attenuation over colonized beachrocks, Cont. Shelf Res., 48, 100–109, 2012.
Vousdoukas, M. I., Kirupakaramoorthy, T., Oumeraci, H., de la Torre, M., Wübbold, F., Wagner, B., and Schimmels, S.: The role of combined laser scanning and video techniques in monitoring wave-by-wave swash zone processes, Coast. Eng., 83, 150–165, 2014.
Vousdoukas, M. I., Voukouvalas, E., Annunziato, A., Giardino, A., and Feyen, L.: Projections of extreme storm surge levels along Europe, Clim. Dynam., 47, 3171–3190, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-016-3019-5, 2016a.
Vousdoukas, M. I., Voukouvalas, E., Mentaschi, L., Dottori, F., Giardino, A., Bouziotas, D., Bianchi, A., Salamon, P., and Feyen, L.: Developments in large-scale coastal flood hazard mapping, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 1841–1853, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-1841-2016, 2016b.
Vousdoukas, M. I., Mentaschi, L., Voukouvalas, E., Verlaan, M., and Feyen, L.: Extreme sea levels on the rise along Europe's coasts, Earth's Future, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016EF000505, 2017.
Xu, S. and Huang, W.: Effects of sea level rise on frequency analysis of 1 % annual maximum water levels in the coast of Florida, Ocean Eng., 71, 96–102, 2013.
Yang, B., Madden, M., Kim, J., and Jordan, T. R.: Geospatial analysis of barrier island beach availability to tourists, Tourism Manage., 33, 840–854, 2012.
Zar, J. H.: Biostatistical analysis, 5th ed., Prentice Hall PTR, 658 pp., ISBN-13: 978-0321656865, 2010.
Zervakis, V., Georgopoulos, D., and Drakopoulos, P.: The role of the North Aegean in triggering the recent Eastern Mediterranean climatic changes, J. Geophys. Res., 105, 26103–26116, 2000.
Short summary
This work constitutes the first comprehensive attempt to record the spatial characteristics of the Aegean island beaches (Greece) and assess the long-term and episodic sea level rise (SLR) impacts under different scenarios. Results suggest that Aegean beaches may be particularly vulnerable to SLRs, where severe impacts which could be devastating are projected by 2100. Appropriate coastal "setback zone" policies should be adopted, as they form a significant environmental and economic resource.
This work constitutes the first comprehensive attempt to record the spatial characteristics of...
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint