Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
NHESS
Articles | Volume 26, issue 2
Articles | Volume 26, issue 2
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-775-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Special issue:
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-775-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 26, issue 2
Research article
 | 
13 Feb 2026
Research article |  | 13 Feb 2026

Collective risk modelling of multi-peril events: correlation of European windstorm gust and precipitation annual severity

Toby P. Jones, David B. Stephenson, and Matthew D. K. Priestley

Related authors

How well can we quantify when 1.5 °C of global warming has been exceeded?
Peter W. Thorne, John M. Nicklas, John J. Kennedy, Bruce Calvert, Baylor Fox-Kemper, Mark T. Richardson, Adrian Simmons, Ed Hawkins, Robert Rhode, Kathryn Cowtan, Nerilie J. Abram, Axel Andersson, Simon Noone, Phillipe Marbaix, Nathan Lenssen, Dirk Olonscheck, Tristram Walsh, Stephen Outten, Ingo Bethke, Bjorn H. Samset, Chris Smith, Anna Pirani, Jan Fuglestvedt, Lavanya Rajamani, Richard A. Betts, Elizabeth C. Kent, Blair Trewin, Colin Morice, Tim Osborn, Samantha N. Burgess, Oliver Geden, Andrew Parnell, Piers M. Forster, Chris Hewitt, Zeke Hausfather, Valerie Masson-Delmotte, Jochem Marotzke, Nathan Gillett, Sonia I. Seneviratne, Gavin A. Schmidt, Duo Chan, Stefan Brönnimann, Andy Reisinger, Matthew Menne, Maisa Rojas Corradi, Christopher Kadow, Peter Huybers, David B. Stephenson, Emily Wallis, Joeri Rogelj, Andrew Schurer, Karen McKinnon, Panmao Zhai, Fatima Driouech, Wilfran Moufouma Okia, Saeed Vazifehkhah, Sophie Szopa, Christopher J. Merchant, Shoji Hirahara, Masayoshi Ishii, Francois A. Engelbrecht, Qingxiang Li, June-Yi Lee, Alex J. Cannon, Christophe Cassou, Karina von Schuckmann, Amir H. Delju, and Ellie Murtagh
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2025-825,https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2025-825, 2026
Preprint under review for ESSD
Short summary
North Atlantic seasonal climate variability significantly modulates extreme winter Euro-Atlantic extratropical cyclone hazards
Amanda C. Maycock, Christine M. McKenna, Matthew D. K. Priestley, Jacob Perez, and Julia F. Lockwood
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1131,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1131, 2025
Short summary
Return levels of extreme European windstorms, their dependency on the North Atlantic Oscillation, and potential future risks
Matthew D. K. Priestley, David B. Stephenson, Adam A. Scaife, Daniel Bannister, Christopher J. T. Allen, and David Wilkie
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3845–3861, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3845-2023,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3845-2023, 2023
Short summary
A composite approach to produce reference datasets for extratropical cyclone tracks: application to Mediterranean cyclones
Emmanouil Flaounas, Leonardo Aragão, Lisa Bernini, Stavros Dafis, Benjamin Doiteau, Helena Flocas, Suzanne L. Gray, Alexia Karwat, John Kouroutzoglou, Piero Lionello, Mario Marcello Miglietta, Florian Pantillon, Claudia Pasquero, Platon Patlakas, María Ángeles Picornell, Federico Porcù, Matthew D. K. Priestley, Marco Reale, Malcolm J. Roberts, Hadas Saaroni, Dor Sandler, Enrico Scoccimarro, Michael Sprenger, and Baruch Ziv
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 639–661, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-639-2023,https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-639-2023, 2023
Short summary
Performance-based sub-selection of CMIP6 models for impact assessments in Europe
Tamzin E. Palmer, Carol F. McSweeney, Ben B. B. Booth, Matthew D. K. Priestley, Paolo Davini, Lukas Brunner, Leonard Borchert, and Matthew B. Menary
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 457–483, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-457-2023,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-457-2023, 2023
Short summary
More articles (1)

Cited articles

Ambagaspitiya, R. S.: On the distributions of two classes of correlated aggregate claims, Insur. Math. Econ., 24, 301–308, https://doi.org/10.1016/s0167-6687(99)00006-2, 1999. a
Bevacqua, E., De Michele, C., Manning, C., Couasnon, A., Ribeiro, A. F. S., Ramos, A. M., Vignotto, E., Bastos, A., Blesić, S., Durante, F., Hillier, J., Oliveira, S. C., Pinto, J. G., Ragno, E., Rivoire, P., Saunders, K., van der Wiel, K., Wu, W., Zhang, T., and Zscheischler, J.: Guidelines for Studying Diverse Types of Compound Weather and Climate Events, Earth's Future, 9, e2021EF002340, https://doi.org/10.1029/2021EF002340, 2021. a
Blackwell, D. and Girshick, M. A.: A Lower Bound for the Variance of Some Unbiased Sequential Estimates, Ann. Math. Stat., 18, 277–280, https://doi.org/10.1214/aoms/1177730444, 1947. a
Bloomfield, H. C., Hillier, J., Griffin, A., Kay, A., Shaffrey, L., Pianosi, F., James, R., Kumar, D., Champion, A., and Bates, P.: Co-occurring wintertime flooding and extreme wind over Europe, from daily to seasonal timescales, Weather and Climate Extremes, 39, 100550, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2023.100550, 2023. a, b, c
Bourdin, S., Fromang, S., Dulac, W., Cattiaux, J., and Chauvin, F.: Intercomparison of four algorithms for detecting tropical cyclones using ERA5, Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 6759–6786, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-6759-2022, 2022. a, b
More articles (62)
Download
Short summary
Some hazards bring multiple perils, meaning their yearly losses are correlated. For example, storms cause losses from both wind and rain damage each year. Three models to understand the drivers of the relationship between these yearly losses are explored. These models can be applied to other hazards, but this study focuses on understanding drivers of wind and rain from windstorms. Storm duration near a location is important, having a positive/negative effect on windspeed/rainfall respectively.
Read more
Share
Special issue
Methodological innovations for the analysis and management...
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint