Articles | Volume 26, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-571-2026
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-571-2026
Research article
 | 
27 Jan 2026
Research article |  | 27 Jan 2026

Large discrepancies between event- and response-based compound flood hazard estimates

Sara Santamaria-Aguilar, Pravin Maduwantha, Alejandra R. Enriquez, and Thomas Wahl

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Cited articles

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Baer, J. A.: Design storms underestimate flood hazard and risk derived from the stochastic storm transposition, Chapel Hill, 56 pp., https://doi.org/10.17615/72je-4t92, 2025. 
Bartlett, M. S., Geldner, N., Cobell, Z., Partida, L., Diaz, O., Johnson, D. R., Kim, H., McMann, B., Villarini, G., Misra, S., Roberts, H. J., and Narayanaswamy, M.: Extending the Joint Probability Method to Compound Flooding: Statistical Delineation of Transition Zones and Design Event Selection, Water Resources Research, preprint, 2025. 
Bates, P. D., Horritt, M. S., Aronica, G., and Beven, K.: Bayesian updating of flood inundation likelihoods conditioned on flood extent data, Hydrol Process, 18, 3347–3370, https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.1499, 2004. 
Bates, P. D., Dawson, R. J., Hall, J. W., Horritt, M. S., Nicholls, R. J., and Wicks, J.: Simplified two-dimensional numerical modelling of coastal flooding and example applications, Coastal Engineering, 52, 793–810, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.coastaleng.2005.06.001, 2005. 
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Short summary
Traditional flood assessments use an event-based approach, assuming flood risk matches the chance of flood drivers. However, flooding also depends on topography and the spatio-temporal features of events. The response-based approach uses many events to estimate flood hazard directly. In Gloucester City (NJ, U.S.), we find that frequent events can cause rare (1 %) flood levels due to their spatio-temporal characteristics. Including these factors is key for accurate flood hazard estimates.
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