Articles | Volume 26, issue 10
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-5281-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-5281-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
27 Oct 2026
Research article |
| 27 Oct 2026
| 27 Oct 2026
Dependence of seismic hazard assessment on the observation time interval: insights from a synthetic earthquake catalogue in southeastern Spain
Elena Pascual-Sánchez
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Department of Topographical Engineering and Cartography, Universidad Politécnica de Madrid, Madrid, Spain
José Antonio Álvarez-Gómez
Department of Geodynamics, Stratigraphy and Paleontology, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Madrid, Spain
Julián García-Mayordomo
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Instituto Geológico y Minero de España – CSIC, Madrid, Spain
Paula Herrero-Barbero
Instituto Geológico y Minero de España – CSIC, Madrid, Spain
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Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 2691–2715, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-2691-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-2691-2026, 2026
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Evaluating seismic hazard requires past earthquake observations to perform accurate forecasts. Physics-based earthquake cycle simulators are algorithms that model long-term earthquake sequences on faults, overcoming completeness limitations of observations. We test the performance of physics-based seismic hazard assessments in comparison with traditional approaches in Spain. The physics-based approach yields more accurate forecasts, highlighting the potential of simulators for seismic hazard.
David Galán Pérez, Iñigo Aniel-Quiroga, Albert Gallego, Ignacio Aguirre-Ayerbe, Mauricio González, Omar Quetzalcóatl, Jose A. Álvarez-Gómez, and Luis Pedraz
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 2415–2436, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-2415-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-2415-2026, 2026
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Tsunamis can have devastating consequences, yet it remains challenging to identify which earthquakes generate them. This study presents a criterion for identifying tsunamigenic events based on numerical simulations, as well as a global database of tsunami simulations based on historical earthquakes. By comparing the results with historical records, this approach can improve tsunami identification and support tsunami warnings worldwide.
Juan Portela, Marta Béjar-Pizarro, Alejandra Staller, Cécile Lasserre, Beatriz Cosenza-Muralles, José Antonio Álvarez-Gómez, and José Jesús Martínez-Díaz
Solid Earth, 17, 369–387, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-17-369-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-17-369-2026, 2026
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We combined satellite radar and GPS data to model how the faults in El Salvador and nearby regions accumulate deformation. Motion across the central El Salvador Fault Zone is shared by several fault branches, while the offshore subduction zone appears to be weakly locked. These results improve the understanding of regional deformation and seismic hazard in Central America.
Octavi Gómez-Novell, Francesco Visini, José Antonio Álvarez-Gómez, Bruno Pace, and Julián García-Mayordomo
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 651–673, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-651-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-651-2026, 2026
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Earthquake surface ruptures are a hazard for infrastructure and life that requires proper assessment. We use a physics-based earthquake cycle simulator to derive fault displacement hazard statistics in a test fault system and their dependence to fault geometry. Our results show that more complex fault geometries increase surface rupture probabilities and might improve the agreement with observations. Earthquake cycle simulators are thus a promising tool for fault displacement hazard analyses.
Antonio Olaiz, José A. Álvarez Gómez, Gerardo de Vicente, Alfonso Muñoz-Martín, Juan V. Cantavella, Susana Custódio, Dina Vales, and Oliver Heidbach
Solid Earth, 16, 947–1024, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-16-947-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-16-947-2025, 2025
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Understanding the stress and strain conditions in the Earth's crust is crucial for various activities, such as oil and gas exploration and assessing seismic hazards. In this article, we have updated the database of moment tensor focal mechanisms for Greater Iberia. We conducted kinematic and dynamic analyses on the selected populations, determining the average focal mechanism, strain and stress orientations, and tectonic regime. The orientation for horizontal compression is primarily N154° E.
Roberto Basili, Laurentiu Danciu, Céline Beauval, Karin Sesetyan, Susana Pires Vilanova, Shota Adamia, Pierre Arroucau, Jure Atanackov, Stéphane Baize, Carolina Canora, Riccardo Caputo, Michele Matteo Cosimo Carafa, Edward Marc Cushing, Susana Custódio, Mine Betul Demircioglu Tumsa, João C. Duarte, Athanassios Ganas, Julián García-Mayordomo, Laura Gómez de la Peña, Eulàlia Gràcia, Petra Jamšek Rupnik, Hervé Jomard, Vanja Kastelic, Francesco Emanuele Maesano, Raquel Martín-Banda, Sara Martínez-Loriente, Marta Neres, Hector Perea, Barbara Šket Motnikar, Mara Monica Tiberti, Nino Tsereteli, Varvara Tsironi, Roberto Vallone, Kris Vanneste, Polona Zupančič, and Domenico Giardini
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3945–3976, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3945-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3945-2024, 2024
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This study presents the European Fault-Source Model 2020 (EFSM20), a dataset of 1248 geologic crustal faults and four subduction systems, each having the necessary parameters to forecast long-term earthquake occurrences in the European continent. This dataset constituted one of the main inputs for the recently released European Seismic Hazard Model 2020, a key instrument to mitigate seismic risk in Europe. EFSM20 adopts recognized open-standard formats, and it is openly accessible and reusable.
José A. Álvarez-Gómez, Paula Herrero-Barbero, and José J. Martínez-Díaz
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2031–2052, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2031-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2031-2023, 2023
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The strike-slip Carboneras fault is one of the largest sources in the Alboran Sea, with it being one of the faster faults in the eastern Betics. The dimensions and location of the Carboneras fault imply a high seismic and tsunami threat. In this work, we present tsunami simulations from sources generated with physics-based earthquake simulators. We show that the Carboneras fault has the capacity to generate locally damaging tsunamis with inter-event times between 2000 and 6000 years.
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Short summary
This study explores how the duration of seismic catalogues affects seismic hazard calculation. Using long-term multi-cycle earthquake simulations we show that different observation periods can produce significantly different hazard results. These findings provide new insights into the variability of seismic hazard and support the use of long-term simulations to include the less frequent large magnitude events. This is especially relevant in areas with low deformation rates such as SE Spain.
This study explores how the duration of seismic catalogues affects seismic hazard calculation....
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