Dependence of seismic hazard assessment on the observation time interval: insights from a synthetic earthquake catalogue in southeastern Spain

Pascual-Sánchez, Elena; Álvarez-Gómez, José Antonio; García-Mayordomo, Julián; Herrero-Barbero, Paula

doi:10.5194/nhess-26-5281-2026

Articles | Volume 26, issue 10

https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-5281-2026

© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-5281-2026

© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Articles | Volume 26, issue 10

Research article

|

27 Oct 2026

Research article |

| 27 Oct 2026

Dependence of seismic hazard assessment on the observation time interval: insights from a synthetic earthquake catalogue in southeastern Spain

Elena Pascual-Sánchez, José Antonio Álvarez-Gómez, Julián García-Mayordomo, and Paula Herrero-Barbero

Data sets

Catálogo sísmico actualizado para el cálculo de la peligrosidad sísmica en España E. Pascual-Sánchez, J. García-Mayordomo, and J. A. Álvarez-Gómez https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.10286171

Supplementary data for ``Seismogenic potential and tsunami threat of the strike-slip Carboneras fault in the western Mediterranean from physics-based earthquake simulations'' J. A. Álvarez Gómez, P. Herrero Barbero, and J. J. Martínez Díaz https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7994106

Short summary

This study explores how the duration of seismic catalogues affects seismic hazard calculation. Using long-term multi-cycle earthquake simulations we show that different observation periods can produce significantly different hazard results. These findings provide new insights into the variability of seismic hazard and support the use of long-term simulations to include the less frequent large magnitude events. This is especially relevant in areas with low deformation rates such as SE Spain.