Articles | Volume 26, issue 10
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-4753-2026
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-4753-2026
Brief communication
 | 
02 Oct 2026
Brief communication |  | 02 Oct 2026

Brief communication: Rise of the Guadalupe River – a multifaceted post event analysis of 4 July 2025, flood in Central Texas

Anupal Baruah, Dinuke Munasinghe, Sagy Cohen, Mohamed Abdelkader, Dipsikha Devi, Yixian Chen, Humberto Vergara, and Riley McDermott

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Cited articles

Aristizabal, F., Salas, F., Petrochenkov, G., Grout, T., Avant, B., Bates, B., and Judge, J.: Extending height above nearest drainage to model multiple fluvial sources in flood inundation mapping applications for the US National Water Model, Water Resour. Res., 59, e2022WR032039, https://doi.org/10.1029/2022WR032039, 2023. 
Baruah, A., Dhital, S., Cohen, S., Tran, T. N. D., Elhaddad, H., Watts, C. L., Devi, D., Chen, Y., and Pruitt, C.: FIMserv v.1.0: A tool for streamlining Flood Inundation Mapping (FIM) using the United States operational hydrological forecasting framework, Environ. Modell. Softw., 192, 106581, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2025.106581, 2025 (code available at: https://github.com/sdmlua/FIMserv, last access: 25 September 2026). 
Benson, M. A. and Dalrymple, T.: General field and office procedures for indirect discharge measurements (U.S. Geological Survey Techniques of Water-Resources Investigations, Book 3, Chapter A1), U.S. Government Printing Office, https://doi.org/10.3133/twri03A1, 1967. 
Bytheway, J. L. and Kummerow, C. D.: Toward an object-based assessment of high-resolution forecasts of long-lived convective precipitation in the central US, J. Adv. Model. Earth Sy., 7, 1248–1264, https://doi.org/10.1002/2015MS000497, 2015. 
Bytheway, J. L., Kummerow, C. D., and Alexander, C.: A features-based assessment of the evolution of warm season precipitation forecasts from the HRRR model over three years of development, Weather Forecast., 32, 1841–1856, https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-17-0050.1, 2017. 
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Short summary
We investigated the Central Texas flash flood on July 2025 to understand why forecasts underestimated its severity. We analyzed operational streamflow forecasts and evaluate flood inundation maps against benchmark flood extent from High Water Mark. Results show that peak flooding was missed due to spatial error in rainfall and failures in monitoring stations, leading to an underestimation of impacts. We highlight the need for uncertainty aware flood predictions to support emergency response.
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