Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
NHESS
Articles | Volume 26, issue 10
Articles | Volume 26, issue 10
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-4753-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Special issue:
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-4753-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 26, issue 10
Brief communication
 | 
02 Oct 2026
Brief communication |  | 02 Oct 2026

Brief communication: Rise of the Guadalupe River – a multifaceted post event analysis of 4 July 2025, flood in Central Texas

Anupal Baruah, Dinuke Munasinghe, Sagy Cohen, Mohamed Abdelkader, Dipsikha Devi, Yixian Chen, Humberto Vergara, and Riley McDermott

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Short summary
We investigated the Central Texas flash flood on July 2025 to understand why forecasts underestimated its severity. We analyzed operational streamflow forecasts and evaluate flood inundation maps against benchmark flood extent from High Water Mark. Results show that peak flooding was missed due to spatial error in rainfall and failures in monitoring stations, leading to an underestimation of impacts. We highlight the need for uncertainty aware flood predictions to support emergency response.
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