Articles | Volume 26, issue 8
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-3919-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-3919-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
19 Aug 2026
Research article |
| 19 Aug 2026
| 19 Aug 2026
Investigating metamodeling capability to predict sea levels and marine flooding maps for early-warning systems: application on the Arcachon Lagoon (France)
Sophie Lecacheux
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
BRGM, 3 av. C. Guillemin, 45060 Orléans, France
Jeremy Rohmer
BRGM, 3 av. C. Guillemin, 45060 Orléans, France
Eva Membrado
BRGM, 3 av. C. Guillemin, 45060 Orléans, France
Rodrigo Pedreros
BRGM, 3 av. C. Guillemin, 45060 Orléans, France
Andrea Filippini
BRGM, 3 av. C. Guillemin, 45060 Orléans, France
Deborah Idier
BRGM, 3 av. C. Guillemin, 45060 Orléans, France
Servane Gueben-Vénière
KEYROS, 3 bis rue Jules Vallès, 75011 Paris, France
Denis Paradis
METEO-FRANCE, DIROP/MAR/DAS, Toulouse, France
Alice Dalphinet
METEO-FRANCE, DIROP/MAR/DAS, Toulouse, France
David Ayache
METEO-FRANCE, DIROP/MAR/DAS, Toulouse, France
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Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 4527–4543, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-4527-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-4527-2025, 2025
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State Planet, 4-osr8, 6, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-4-osr8-6-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-4-osr8-6-2024, 2024
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Satellite altimetry shows that daily mean significant wave heights (SWHs) and extreme SWHs have increased in the Southern Ocean, the South Atlantic, and the southern Indian Ocean over the last 2 decades. In winter in the North Atlantic, SWH has increased north of 45°N and decreased south of 45°N. SWHs likely to be exceeded every 100 years have also increased in the North Atlantic and the eastern tropical Pacific. However, this study also revealed the need for longer and more consistent series.
Jeremy Rohmer, Stephane Belbeze, and Dominique Guyonnet
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Jeremy Rohmer, Remi Thieblemont, Goneri Le Cozannet, Heiko Goelzer, and Gael Durand
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To improve the interpretability of process-based projections of the sea-level contribution from land ice components, we apply the machine-learning-based
SHapley Additive exPlanationsapproach to a subset of a multi-model ensemble study for the Greenland ice sheet. This allows us to quantify the influence of particular modelling decisions (related to numerical implementation, initial conditions, or parametrisation of ice-sheet processes) directly in terms of sea-level change contribution.
Jeremy Rohmer, Deborah Idier, Remi Thieblemont, Goneri Le Cozannet, and François Bachoc
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We quantify the influence of wave–wind characteristics, offshore water level and sea level rise (projected up to 2200) on the occurrence of flooding events at Gâvres, French Atlantic coast. Our results outline the overwhelming influence of sea level rise over time compared to the others. By showing the robustness of our conclusions to the errors in the estimation procedure, our approach proves to be valuable for exploring and characterizing uncertainties in assessments of future flooding.
Ryota Wada, Jeremy Rohmer, Yann Krien, and Philip Jonathan
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Characterizing extreme wave environments caused by tropical cyclones in the Caribbean Sea near Guadeloupe is difficult because cyclones rarely pass near the location of interest. STM-E (space-time maxima and exposure) model utilizes wave data during cyclones on a spatial neighbourhood. Long-duration wave data generated from a database of synthetic tropical cyclones are used to evaluate the performance of STM-E. Results indicate STM-E provides estimates with small bias and realistic uncertainty.
Georg Umgiesser, Marco Bajo, Christian Ferrarin, Andrea Cucco, Piero Lionello, Davide Zanchettin, Alvise Papa, Alessandro Tosoni, Maurizio Ferla, Elisa Coraci, Sara Morucci, Franco Crosato, Andrea Bonometto, Andrea Valentini, Mirko Orlić, Ivan D. Haigh, Jacob Woge Nielsen, Xavier Bertin, André Bustorff Fortunato, Begoña Pérez Gómez, Enrique Alvarez Fanjul, Denis Paradis, Didier Jourdan, Audrey Pasquet, Baptiste Mourre, Joaquín Tintoré, and Robert J. Nicholls
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2679–2704, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2679-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2679-2021, 2021
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The city of Venice relies crucially on a good storm surge forecast to protect its population and cultural heritage. In this paper, we provide a state-of-the-art review of storm surge forecasting, starting from examples in Europe and focusing on the Adriatic Sea and the Lagoon of Venice. We discuss the physics of storm surge, as well as the particular aspects of Venice and new techniques in storm surge modeling. We also give recommendations on what a future forecasting system should look like.
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Short summary
This study comparer three data-driven methodologies to overcome the computational burden of numerical simulations for early warning purpose. They are all based on the statistical analysis of pre-calculated databases, to downscale total sea levels and predict marine flooding maps from offshore metocean forecasts. Conclusions highlight the relevance of metamodel-based approaches for fast prediction and the added value of precalculated databases during the prepardness phase.
This study comparer three data-driven methodologies to overcome the computational burden of...
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