Articles | Volume 26, issue 8
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-3723-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-3723-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| Highlight paper
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10 Aug 2026
Research article | Highlight paper |
| 10 Aug 2026
| 10 Aug 2026
Climate change may increase landslide frequency despite generally drier conditions in the Mediterranean area
Daniel Camilo Roman Quintero
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Dipartiemento di Ingenieria, Università degli Studi della Campania “Luigi Vanvitelli”, Aversa, Italy
Department of Water Management, Delft University of Technology, Delft, the Netherlands
Ruud van der Ent
Department of Water Management, Delft University of Technology, Delft, the Netherlands
Thom Bogaard
Department of Water Management, Delft University of Technology, Delft, the Netherlands
Roberto Greco
Dipartiemento di Ingenieria, Università degli Studi della Campania “Luigi Vanvitelli”, Aversa, Italy
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The density of rain gauge networks plays an important role in radar rainfall bias correction. In this work, we aimed to assess the extent to which daily rainfall observations from a dense network of citizen scientists improve the accuracy of hourly radar rainfall estimates in the Tubma Basin, Thailand. Results show that citizen rain gauges significantly enhance the performance of radar rainfall bias adjustment up to a range of about 40 km from the center of the citizen rain gauge network.
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Editorial statement
The assessment of climate change impacts on rainfall-triggered shallow landslides in the Campania Region shows that, despite the trend toward drier conditions, landslide occurrence is projected to increase. In this study like in some previous ones conducted for a nearby region, projections indicate a greater increase in landslide frequency under the RCP4.5 scenario than under the RCP8.5 scenario. The authors show that this counter-intuitive result is related to the critical role of antecedent soil moisture in landslide initiation.
The assessment of climate change impacts on rainfall-triggered shallow landslides in the...
Short summary
We present a framework linking projected rainfall with hydro-mechanical processes to assess landslide occurrences in a Mediterranean area, under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Despite generally drier soils, landslide frequency rises because shifts in the timing and intensity of rainfall, altering antecedent soil moisture during triggering events. This counterintuitive result highlights the importance of rainfall patterns in slope stability and informs climate-risk assessment and adaptation planning.
We present a framework linking projected rainfall with hydro-mechanical processes to assess...
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