Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
NHESS
Articles | Volume 26, issue 8
Articles | Volume 26, issue 8
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-3723-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-3723-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 26, issue 8
Research article
 | Highlight paper
 | 
10 Aug 2026
Research article | Highlight paper |  | 10 Aug 2026

Climate change may increase landslide frequency despite generally drier conditions in the Mediterranean area

Daniel Camilo Roman Quintero, Ruud van der Ent, Thom Bogaard, and Roberto Greco

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Editorial statement
The assessment of climate change impacts on rainfall-triggered shallow landslides in the Campania Region shows that, despite the trend toward drier conditions, landslide occurrence is projected to increase. In this study like in some previous ones conducted for a nearby region, projections indicate a greater increase in landslide frequency under the RCP4.5 scenario than under the RCP8.5 scenario. The authors show that this counter-intuitive result is related to the critical role of antecedent soil moisture in landslide initiation.
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Short summary
We present a framework linking projected rainfall with hydro-mechanical processes to assess landslide occurrences in a Mediterranean area, under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Despite generally drier soils, landslide frequency rises because shifts in the timing and intensity of rainfall, altering antecedent soil moisture during triggering events. This counterintuitive result highlights the importance of rainfall patterns in slope stability and informs climate-risk assessment and adaptation planning.
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