The assessment of climate change impacts on rainfall-triggered shallow landslides in the Campania Region shows that, despite the trend toward drier conditions, landslide occurrence is projected to increase. In this study like in some previous ones conducted for a nearby region, projections indicate a greater increase in landslide frequency under the RCP4.5 scenario than under the RCP8.5 scenario. The authors show that this counter-intuitive result is related to the critical role of antecedent soil moisture in landslide initiation.