Articles | Volume 26, issue 6
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-2691-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-2691-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
10 Jun 2026
Research article |
| 10 Jun 2026
| 10 Jun 2026
Consistency of seismic hazard estimates from a physics-based earthquake simulator: a case study in south-eastern Spain
Octavi Gómez-Novell
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
CN Instituto Geológico y Minero de España, CSIC, Madrid, Spain
now at: Departament de Dinàmica de la Terra i l’Oceà, Universitat de Barcelona, Spain
Francesco Visini
Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Chieti, Italy
Paula Herrero-Barbero
CN Instituto Geológico y Minero de España, CSIC, Madrid, Spain
José A. Álvarez-Gómez
Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Madrid, Spain
Julián García-Mayordomo
CN Instituto Geológico y Minero de España, CSIC, Madrid, Spain
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Short summary
Evaluating seismic hazard requires past earthquake observations to perform accurate forecasts. Physics-based earthquake cycle simulators are algorithms that model long-term earthquake sequences on faults, overcoming completeness limitations of observations. We test the performance of physics-based seismic hazard assessments in comparison with traditional approaches in Spain. The physics-based approach yields more accurate forecasts, highlighting the potential of simulators for seismic hazard.
Evaluating seismic hazard requires past earthquake observations to perform accurate forecasts....
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