Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
NHESS
Articles | Volume 26, issue 6
Articles | Volume 26, issue 6
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-2691-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-2691-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 26, issue 6
Research article
 | 
10 Jun 2026
Research article |  | 10 Jun 2026

Consistency of seismic hazard estimates from a physics-based earthquake simulator: a case study in south-eastern Spain

Octavi Gómez-Novell, Francesco Visini, Paula Herrero-Barbero, José A. Álvarez-Gómez, and Julián García-Mayordomo

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Latest update: 23 Jul 2026
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Short summary
Evaluating seismic hazard requires past earthquake observations to perform accurate forecasts. Physics-based earthquake cycle simulators are algorithms that model long-term earthquake sequences on faults, overcoming completeness limitations of observations. We test the performance of physics-based seismic hazard assessments in comparison with traditional approaches in Spain. The physics-based approach yields more accurate forecasts, highlighting the potential of simulators for seismic hazard.
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