Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
NHESS
Articles | Volume 25, issue 8
Articles | Volume 25, issue 8
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2845-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2845-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 25, issue 8
Research article
 | 
25 Aug 2025
Research article |  | 25 Aug 2025

BN-FLEMOΔ: a Bayesian-network-based flood loss estimation model for adaptation planning in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam

Kasra Rafiezadeh Shahi, Nivedita Sairam, Lukas Schoppa, Le Thanh Sang, Do Ly Hoai Tan, and Heidi Kreibich

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Latest update: 26 Aug 2025
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Short summary
Ho Chi Minh City (HCMC) faces severe flood risks from climatic and socio-economic changes, requiring effective adaptation solutions. Flood loss estimation is crucial, but advanced probabilistic models accounting for key drivers and uncertainty are lacking. This study presents a probabilistic flood loss model with a feature selection paradigm for HCMC’s residential sector. Experiments using new survey data from flood-affected households demonstrate the model's superior performance.
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