Articles | Volume 25, issue 6
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2115-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Measuring extremes-driven direct biophysical impacts in agricultural drought damages
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- Final revised paper (published on 01 Jul 2025)
- Supplement to the final revised paper
- Preprint (discussion started on 29 Aug 2024)
- Supplement to the preprint
Interactive discussion
Status: closed
Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor
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RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2024-2585', Thomas Slijper, 10 Sep 2024
- AC1: 'Reply on RC1', Mansi Nagpal, 27 Dec 2024
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RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2024-2585', Anonymous Referee #2, 07 Nov 2024
- AC2: 'Reply on RC2', Mansi Nagpal, 27 Dec 2024
Peer review completion
AR – Author's response | RR – Referee report | ED – Editor decision | EF – Editorial file upload
ED: Reconsider after major revisions (further review by editor and referees) (10 Jan 2025) by Giulia Vico
AR by Mansi Nagpal on behalf of the Authors (03 Mar 2025)
Author's response
Author's tracked changes
Manuscript
EF by Daria Karpachova (05 Mar 2025)
Manuscript
Author's tracked changes
ED: Referee Nomination & Report Request started (21 Mar 2025) by Giulia Vico
RR by Anonymous Referee #2 (27 Mar 2025)
RR by Thomas Slijper (02 Apr 2025)
ED: Publish subject to minor revisions (review by editor) (02 Apr 2025) by Giulia Vico
AR by Mansi Nagpal on behalf of the Authors (11 Apr 2025)
Author's response
Author's tracked changes
Manuscript
ED: Publish as is (16 Apr 2025) by Giulia Vico
ED: Publish as is (22 Apr 2025) by Kai Schröter (Executive editor)
AR by Mansi Nagpal on behalf of the Authors (23 Apr 2025)
Author's response
Manuscript
This paper explores the economic impacts of multiple climate extremes, focusing on droughts, by estimating revenue changes. The economic damage is defined as the difference between expected and actual revenues. Using a counterfactual that compares expected revenues to realised revenues under drought conditions, the economic impact of droughts is estimated. The topic is timely and relevant to the journal, but I would like to offer a few suggestions that I believe are important to take on board.
One potential concern is the definition of economic impact as the difference between realized and expected revenues. This approach means that a significant portion of the estimated economic impact depends on how expected revenues are defined. You base the counterfactual (expected revenues) on past non-drought revenues within the same region. I am uncertain if this is the best approach, and we might have taken different directions here. To address this, a clear justification for your counterfactual is needed, likely supported by robustness checks to show how results might change with different counterfactuals. Additionally, I would like to discuss (i) your definition of economic impacts and (ii) whether droughts and climate extremes are best measured dichotomously or continuously. These three points form the basis of my general comments. I have also provided a few minor suggestions and textual edits below.
General comments
For example, consider two regions where neither has experienced a "normal" year during the reference period. Region 1 has had consecutive slightly wet years, while region 2 has had five consecutive slightly dry years (though not extreme). Consequently, your expected revenues for region 1 are based on slightly wet conditions, while for region 2, they reflect slightly dry conditions. As a result, the estimated economic impact of droughts is now being benchmarked against two different baselines, which could affect the accuracy of your estimates.
Then, a second objective of the paper is to investigate the economic impacts of the interplay of droughts and extreme weather events. I do not yet see how this is reflected in your current counterfactual, as those extreme weather events are not considered when you define your counterfactual. The implications of this are that the expected revenues do not consider any past exposure to other extreme weather events, making me wonder how accurate your economic impact estimates are.
One way forward to convince me that your counterfactual is measuring what it intends to measure is to include robustness checks, with different counterfactual definitions (e.g., using shorter or longer reference periods, or incorporating multiple extreme weather events). Alternatively, you could consider defining your counterfactual based on matching or regression-based approaches, which allows you to account for observable characteristics such as the severity of drought (using continuous measures like soil moisture index), crop types, or land area. It would also be useful to indicate how much of the estimated economic impact is driven by the occurrence of droughts versus changes in the expected revenues themselves (i.e. how do your results change when defining different counterfactuals?)
Specific suggestions