Articles | Volume 24, issue 2
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-411-2024
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-411-2024
Research article
 | 
06 Feb 2024
Research article |  | 06 Feb 2024

Climate change impacts on regional fire weather in heterogeneous landscapes of central Europe

Julia Miller, Andrea Böhnisch, Ralf Ludwig, and Manuela I. Brunner

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Cited articles

Aalbers, E. E., Lenderink, G., van Meijgaard, E., and van den Hurk, B. J. J. M.: Local-scale changes in mean and heavy precipitation in Western Europe, climate change or internal variability?, Clim. Dynam., 50, 4745–4766, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-017-3901-9, 2018. a
Abatzoglou, J. T., Juang, C. S., Williams, A. P., Kolden, C. A., and Westerling, A. L.: Increasing Synchronous Fire Danger in Forests of the Western United States, Geophys. Res. Lett., 48, e2020GL091377, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL091377, 2021. a
Arnell, N. W., Freeman, A., and Gazzard, R.: The effect of climate change on indicators of fire danger in the UK, Environ. Res. Lett., 16, 44027, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abd9f2, 2021. a, b, c, d, e
Bakke, S. J., Wanders, N., van der Wiel, K., and Tallaksen, L. M.: A data-driven model for Fennoscandian wildfire danger, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 65–89, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-65-2023, 2023. a
Barbero, R., Abatzoglou, J. T., Larkin, N. K., Kolden, C. A., and Stocks, B.: Climate change presents increased potential for very large fires in the contiguous United States, Int. J. Wildland Fire, 24, 892–899, https://doi.org/10.1071/WF15083, 2015. a, b
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Short summary
We assess the impacts of climate change on fire danger for 1980–2099 in different landscapes of central Europe, using the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index (FWI) as a fire danger indicator. We find that today's 100-year FWI event will occur every 30 years by 2050 and every 10 years by 2099. High fire danger (FWI > 21.3) becomes the mean condition by 2099 under an RCP8.5 scenario. This study highlights the potential for severe fire events in central Europe from a meteorological perspective.
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