Articles | Volume 24, issue 2
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-411-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Special issue:
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-411-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Climate change impacts on regional fire weather in heterogeneous landscapes of central Europe
Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
WSL Institute for Snow and Avalanche Research SLF, Davos Dorf, Switzerland
Climate Change, Extremes and Natural Hazards in Alpine Regions Research Center CERC, Davos Dorf, Switzerland
Andrea Böhnisch
Department of Geography, Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München, Munich, Germany
Ralf Ludwig
Department of Geography, Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München, Munich, Germany
Manuela I. Brunner
Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
WSL Institute for Snow and Avalanche Research SLF, Davos Dorf, Switzerland
Climate Change, Extremes and Natural Hazards in Alpine Regions Research Center CERC, Davos Dorf, Switzerland
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Cited
20 citations as recorded by crossref.
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- Beetles, wind, and fire: Effects of climate change and close-to-nature forestry on disturbance predisposition and ecosystem service trade-offs S. Mutterer et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foreco.2025.122690
- Bark traits and their influence on thermal resistance to wildfires: an experimental study across six tree species common in Central Europe S. Mutterer et al. https://doi.org/10.1186/s42408-025-00438-4
- Aged and fresh wildfire smoke from different sources in Europe and North America: Long-term lidar observations over Cyprus in the Eastern Mediterranean M. Poutli et al. https://doi.org/10.1051/epjconf/202636202031
- Preface: Hydro-meteorological extremes and hazards: vulnerability, risk, impacts, and mitigation F. Marra et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2565-2025
- Implementation Potential of the SILVANUS Project Outcomes for Wildfire Resilience and Sustainable Forest Management in the Slovak Republic A. Majlingova et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/f16071153
- Mapping the probability of forest fire hazard across the European Alps under climate change scenarios K. Gerberding & U. Schirpke https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2025.124600
- Bridging the gap between users and scientists: challenges of climate service production in a central European case study A. Böhnisch et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-22-111-2026
- A new perspective on hydric dynamics and damage susceptibility in natural stones: Insights from the thermal impact on carbonate lithologies R. Lobarinhas et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10064-026-04800-x
- Spatiotemporal analysis of the FWI over Europe and North Africa: Historical trends and climate projections under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 F. Di Nunno & F. Granata https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gsf.2025.102178
- Detecting the impact of climate change on alpine mass movements in observational records from the European Alps M. Jacquemart et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.earscirev.2024.104886
- The emerging human fingerprint on global extreme fire weather M. Turco et al. https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.adx9845
- Over 100 global climate sensitive rivers are experiencing large and severe changes in streamflow volume and timing R. Patil et al. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ae1e16
- Has climate change affected the fire regimes in semi-arid areas of northeastern Iran? S. Eskandari et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12145-024-01661-4
- Wildfire Hazard in Poland in a Warming Climate: Past and Future Impact of Extreme Weather I. Pińskwar et al. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.70439
- Aerosol Pollution of the Atmosphere (Review): Part 1. Sources, Chemical Composition, and Quantity of Natural Primary Aerosol Particles and Their Impact on Human Health S. Riabova https://doi.org/10.1134/S0001433825700380
- Climate-driven transformations: A framework for the sustainable urban landscape system to enhance heat resilience B. Huang et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scs.2025.106684
- Synthesis and Perspectives on Disturbance Interactions, and Forest Fire Risk and Fire Severity in Central Europe L. Leonardos et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/fire7120470
- Climate variability conceals emerging hydrological trends across Great Britain W. Chan et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.133414
- Winners and losers: post-fire European forest taxa abundance meta-analysis G. Gerber et al. https://doi.org/10.1186/s42408-026-00471-x
20 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Unveiling the Fire Effects on Hydric Dynamics of Carbonate Stones: Leeb Hardness and Ultrasonic Pulse Velocity as Capillary Coefficient Predictors R. Lobarinhas et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/app15158567
- Beetles, wind, and fire: Effects of climate change and close-to-nature forestry on disturbance predisposition and ecosystem service trade-offs S. Mutterer et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foreco.2025.122690
- Bark traits and their influence on thermal resistance to wildfires: an experimental study across six tree species common in Central Europe S. Mutterer et al. https://doi.org/10.1186/s42408-025-00438-4
- Aged and fresh wildfire smoke from different sources in Europe and North America: Long-term lidar observations over Cyprus in the Eastern Mediterranean M. Poutli et al. https://doi.org/10.1051/epjconf/202636202031
- Preface: Hydro-meteorological extremes and hazards: vulnerability, risk, impacts, and mitigation F. Marra et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2565-2025
- Implementation Potential of the SILVANUS Project Outcomes for Wildfire Resilience and Sustainable Forest Management in the Slovak Republic A. Majlingova et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/f16071153
- Mapping the probability of forest fire hazard across the European Alps under climate change scenarios K. Gerberding & U. Schirpke https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2025.124600
- Bridging the gap between users and scientists: challenges of climate service production in a central European case study A. Böhnisch et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-22-111-2026
- A new perspective on hydric dynamics and damage susceptibility in natural stones: Insights from the thermal impact on carbonate lithologies R. Lobarinhas et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10064-026-04800-x
- Spatiotemporal analysis of the FWI over Europe and North Africa: Historical trends and climate projections under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 F. Di Nunno & F. Granata https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gsf.2025.102178
- Detecting the impact of climate change on alpine mass movements in observational records from the European Alps M. Jacquemart et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.earscirev.2024.104886
- The emerging human fingerprint on global extreme fire weather M. Turco et al. https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.adx9845
- Over 100 global climate sensitive rivers are experiencing large and severe changes in streamflow volume and timing R. Patil et al. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ae1e16
- Has climate change affected the fire regimes in semi-arid areas of northeastern Iran? S. Eskandari et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12145-024-01661-4
- Wildfire Hazard in Poland in a Warming Climate: Past and Future Impact of Extreme Weather I. Pińskwar et al. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.70439
- Aerosol Pollution of the Atmosphere (Review): Part 1. Sources, Chemical Composition, and Quantity of Natural Primary Aerosol Particles and Their Impact on Human Health S. Riabova https://doi.org/10.1134/S0001433825700380
- Climate-driven transformations: A framework for the sustainable urban landscape system to enhance heat resilience B. Huang et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scs.2025.106684
- Synthesis and Perspectives on Disturbance Interactions, and Forest Fire Risk and Fire Severity in Central Europe L. Leonardos et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/fire7120470
- Climate variability conceals emerging hydrological trends across Great Britain W. Chan et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.133414
- Winners and losers: post-fire European forest taxa abundance meta-analysis G. Gerber et al. https://doi.org/10.1186/s42408-026-00471-x
Saved (final revised paper)
Latest update: 09 Jun 2026
Short summary
We assess the impacts of climate change on fire danger for 1980–2099 in different landscapes of central Europe, using the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index (FWI) as a fire danger indicator. We find that today's 100-year FWI event will occur every 30 years by 2050 and every 10 years by 2099. High fire danger (FWI > 21.3) becomes the mean condition by 2099 under an RCP8.5 scenario. This study highlights the potential for severe fire events in central Europe from a meteorological perspective.
We assess the impacts of climate change on fire danger for 1980–2099 in different landscapes of...
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