Climate change impacts on regional fire weather  in heterogeneous landscapes of central Europe

Miller, Julia; Böhnisch, Andrea; Ludwig, Ralf; Brunner, Manuela I.

doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-411-2024

Articles | Volume 24, issue 2

https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-411-2024

© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Special issue:

Hydro-meteorological extremes and hazards: vulnerability,...

https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-411-2024

© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Articles | Volume 24, issue 2

Research article

|

06 Feb 2024

Research article |

| 06 Feb 2024

Climate change impacts on regional fire weather in heterogeneous landscapes of central Europe

Julia Miller, Andrea Böhnisch, Ralf Ludwig, and Manuela I. Brunner

Data sets

Fire Weather Index for Hydrological Bavaria from 1980-2099 derived from the 50 member CRCM5-LE J. Miller et al. https://doi.org/10.16904/envidat.466

ire danger indices historical data from the Copernicus Emergency Management Service Copernicus Climate Change Service https://doi.org/10.24381/cds.0e89c522

Corine Land Cover 2018, Version 2020-20u1 CLMS https://doi.org/10.2909/71c95a07-e296-44fc-b22b-415f42acfdf0

Short summary

We assess the impacts of climate change on fire danger for 1980–2099 in different landscapes of central Europe, using the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index (FWI) as a fire danger indicator. We find that today's 100-year FWI event will occur every 30 years by 2050 and every 10 years by 2099. High fire danger (FWI > 21.3) becomes the mean condition by 2099 under an RCP8.5 scenario. This study highlights the potential for severe fire events in central Europe from a meteorological perspective.