Articles | Volume 24, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-309-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-309-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
01 Feb 2024
Research article |
| 01 Feb 2024
| 01 Feb 2024
Towards a global impact-based forecasting model for tropical cyclones
Mersedeh Kooshki Forooshani
ISI Foundation, Turin, Italy
Marc van den Homberg
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
510, an Initiative of the Netherlands Red Cross, the Hague, the Netherlands
Kyriaki Kalimeri
ISI Foundation, Turin, Italy
Andreas Kaltenbrunner
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
ISI Foundation, Turin, Italy
Internet Interdisciplinary Institute, Universitat Oberta de Catalunya, Barcelona, Spain
Yelena Mejova
ISI Foundation, Turin, Italy
Leonardo Milano
UN OCHA Centre for Humanitarian Data, the Hague, the Netherlands
Pauline Ndirangu
UN OCHA Centre for Humanitarian Data, the Hague, the Netherlands
Daniela Paolotti
ISI Foundation, Turin, Italy
Aklilu Teklesadik
510, an Initiative of the Netherlands Red Cross, the Hague, the Netherlands
Monica L. Turner
UN OCHA Centre for Humanitarian Data, the Hague, the Netherlands
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Cited
15 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Can small towns survive climate change? Assessing economic resilience and vulnerability amid major storms R. Nazari et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2025.145158
- User‐Tailored Impact‐Based Hail Forecasts in Switzerland V. Gebhart et al. https://doi.org/10.1002/met.70158
- Semi-automated multi-criteria filtering of building footprints for enhanced Wildland-Urban Interface mapping in mainland Portugal B. Barbosa et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.dib.2025.112055
- From hazard to disruption: forecasting direct and indirect tropical cyclone impacts on infrastructure in Mozambique G. Espejo et al. https://doi.org/10.3389/fclim.2025.1666586
- Research gaps and challenges for impact-based forecasts and warnings: Results of international workshops for High Impact Weather in 2022 S. Potter et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105234
- Characterizing the changes and regional drivers of tropical cyclone intensification over the western North Pacific Y. Wu et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2026.105641
- Avoidable Economic Losses from Influential Tropical Cyclones in a Warming China S. Wen et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/su18041845
- Assessing the influence of building data choice on wildland–urban interface delineation in mainland Portugal B. Barbosa et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-026-53590-5
- Using machine learning for the prediction of flood-related 112 calls J. Morales et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-3943-2026
- Hyperautomated Hazard Mitigation Using Integrated, Scalable, and Sustainable Robotics and UAV Systems R. Concepcion et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/technologies14100630
- Impact-based flood-damage assessment in Japan under longitudinal typhoon-track perturbations and levee-height variations during Hagibis (2019) X. Li et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-026-04077-8
- Flood and Rice Damage Mapping for Tropical Storm Talas in Vietnam Using Sentinel-1 SAR Data P. van Rutten et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs17132171
- Assessing the contribution of climate change on tropical cyclones related to loss and damage in southern Africa: a case study of tropical cyclones in southern Malawi M. Joshua et al. https://doi.org/10.3389/frwa.2025.1622293
- Auditing Geospatial Datasets for Biases: Using Global Building Datasets for Disaster Risk Management C. Gevaert et al. https://doi.org/10.1109/JSTARS.2024.3422503
- Evaluating impact-based forecasting models for tropical cyclone anticipatory action S. Sedhain et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105782
15 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Can small towns survive climate change? Assessing economic resilience and vulnerability amid major storms R. Nazari et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2025.145158
- User‐Tailored Impact‐Based Hail Forecasts in Switzerland V. Gebhart et al. https://doi.org/10.1002/met.70158
- Semi-automated multi-criteria filtering of building footprints for enhanced Wildland-Urban Interface mapping in mainland Portugal B. Barbosa et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.dib.2025.112055
- From hazard to disruption: forecasting direct and indirect tropical cyclone impacts on infrastructure in Mozambique G. Espejo et al. https://doi.org/10.3389/fclim.2025.1666586
- Research gaps and challenges for impact-based forecasts and warnings: Results of international workshops for High Impact Weather in 2022 S. Potter et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105234
- Characterizing the changes and regional drivers of tropical cyclone intensification over the western North Pacific Y. Wu et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2026.105641
- Avoidable Economic Losses from Influential Tropical Cyclones in a Warming China S. Wen et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/su18041845
- Assessing the influence of building data choice on wildland–urban interface delineation in mainland Portugal B. Barbosa et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-026-53590-5
- Using machine learning for the prediction of flood-related 112 calls J. Morales et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-3943-2026
- Hyperautomated Hazard Mitigation Using Integrated, Scalable, and Sustainable Robotics and UAV Systems R. Concepcion et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/technologies14100630
- Impact-based flood-damage assessment in Japan under longitudinal typhoon-track perturbations and levee-height variations during Hagibis (2019) X. Li et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-026-04077-8
- Flood and Rice Damage Mapping for Tropical Storm Talas in Vietnam Using Sentinel-1 SAR Data P. van Rutten et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs17132171
- Assessing the contribution of climate change on tropical cyclones related to loss and damage in southern Africa: a case study of tropical cyclones in southern Malawi M. Joshua et al. https://doi.org/10.3389/frwa.2025.1622293
- Auditing Geospatial Datasets for Biases: Using Global Building Datasets for Disaster Risk Management C. Gevaert et al. https://doi.org/10.1109/JSTARS.2024.3422503
- Evaluating impact-based forecasting models for tropical cyclone anticipatory action S. Sedhain et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105782
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Short summary
We improve an existing impact forecasting model for the Philippines by transforming the target variable (percentage of damaged houses) to a fine grid, using only features which are globally available. We show that our two-stage model conserves the performance of the original and even has the potential to introduce savings in anticipatory action resources. Such model generalizability is important in increasing the applicability of such tools around the world.
We improve an existing impact forecasting model for the Philippines by transforming the target...
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