Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
NHESS
Articles | Volume 24, issue 1
Articles | Volume 24, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-309-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Special issue:
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-309-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 24, issue 1
Research article
 | 
01 Feb 2024
Research article |  | 01 Feb 2024

Towards a global impact-based forecasting model for tropical cyclones

Mersedeh Kooshki Forooshani, Marc van den Homberg, Kyriaki Kalimeri, Andreas Kaltenbrunner, Yelena Mejova, Leonardo Milano, Pauline Ndirangu, Daniela Paolotti, Aklilu Teklesadik, and Monica L. Turner

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Cited articles

Annoni, A., Eremchenko, E., Giuliani, G., Strobl, J., and Chen, M.: Digital earth: yesterday, today, and tomorrow, Int. J. Digit. Earth, 16, 1022–1072, 2023. a
Anticipation Hub: Anticipatory Action in 2022: A Global Overview, https://www.anticipation-hub.org/download/file-3249 (last access: 25 April 2023), 2022. a
Atwii, F., Sandvik, K. B., Kirch, L., Paragi, B., Radtke, K., Schneider, S., and Weller, D.: World Risk Report, https://weltrisikobericht.de/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/WorldRiskReport-2022_Online.pdf (last access: 13 October 2023), 2022. a
Baldwin, J. W., Lee, C.-Y., Walsh, B. J., Camargo, S. J., and Sobel, A. H.: Vulnerability in a Tropical Cyclone Risk Model: Philippines Case Study, Weather Clim. Soc., 15, 503–523, https://doi.org/10.1175/WCAS-D-22-0049.1, 2023. a
Bierens, S., Boersma, K., and van den Homberg, M. J.: The legitimacy, accountability, and ownership of an impact-based forecasting model in disaster governance, Politics and Governance, 8, 445–455, 2020.  a
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Short summary
We improve an existing impact forecasting model for the Philippines by transforming the target variable (percentage of damaged houses) to a fine grid, using only features which are globally available. We show that our two-stage model conserves the performance of the original and even has the potential to introduce savings in anticipatory action resources. Such model generalizability is important in increasing the applicability of such tools around the world.
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