Reducing the impacts of natural hazards through forecast-based action: from early warning to early action
Reducing the impacts of natural hazards through forecast-based action: from early warning to early action
Editor(s): Marc van den Homberg, Andrea Ficchì, Gabriela Guimarães Nobre, David MacLeod, Maurine Ambani, Ilias Pechlivanidis, Liz Stephens, and Philip Ward

Building on growing evidence that acting before the onset of a disaster is significantly faster, more dignified, and more (cost-)effective than response afterwards, humanitarian and governmental actors develop and implement anticipatory action frameworks. Anticipatory action requires impact-based forecasting models with appropriate thresholds to trigger pre-defined early actions that mitigate the predicted impact. Despite significant advances in hazard forecasting and the data revolution leading to more data on risk and impact as well as artificial intelligence solutions becoming available, it remains challenging to produce impact-based forecasts. This special issue aims to showcase lessons learned and best practices on impact-based multi-hazard early-warning early-action systems from the perspective of the multiple actors involved in the anticipatory action value chain. It presents novel methods to translate climate-related and geohazard forecasts into impact-based forecasts. We solicit contributions (commentaries, review articles, original research articles) from different perspectives on this interdisciplinary topic from research scientists, students, practitioners, and stakeholders. It will be a unique opportunity to further our understanding of impact-based forecasting.

Abstracts that fall under one of the following themes will be considered:

  • risk or impact assessments that are undertaken to inform the co-production of impact-based forecasting models and early-action protocols and to set corresponding trigger levels, whichcan include research into how risk and impact data can be governed, ensuring, for example, the sharing of data between the multitude of data providers and data users, or how historical hazard-impact catalogues can be created;
  • forecast skill analyses of the hazard forecasts from national, regional, or global forecasting sources so that there is a clear understanding of the reliability of hazard forecasts that are used in the impact-based forecasts;
  • reflections on the influence of forecast uncertainty across different timescales in decision-making and on how uncertainties can best be communicated and visualized;
  • impact-based forecasting modelling, ranging from composite risk index types of approaches to elementary or statistical modelling, andbenchmarking of different approaches;
  • the use of state-of-the-art methods, such as using artificial intelligence, big data, and earth observation applications, to address the difficulties in the creation of hazard-impact catalogues, impact-based forecasting models, and/or beneficiary targeting;
  • research work linked to people-centred early-warning systems and anticipatory action including the role of indigenous/traditional knowledge in the development and strengthening of people-centred early-warning systems, last-mile early-warning delivery, and the co-design of gender- and disability-sensitive climate services for a gender-transformative early warning;
  • barriers and opportunities in the development and use of impact-based forecasting in anticipatory action systems; explanations of the role of humanitarian agencies, scientists, and communities at risk in creating standard operating procedures for economically feasible actions; examples of cost-efficient portfolios of early actions for climate-/geo-related impact preparedness such as cash transfer for droughts or weather-based insurance for floods; assessments on the types and costs of possible forecast-based disaster risk management actions; practical applications of impact forecasts.

Manuscripts with case studies in different geographic regions will be welcome. Papers that do not address these topics, if appropriate, will be proposed to the general submissions for NHESS. A series of contributions will be drawn from EGU 2023 Session HS4.5 Reducing the impacts of natural hazards through forecast-based action: from early warning to early actionand Session HS4.4 Operational forecasting and warning systems for natural hazards and climate emergency: challenges and innovations. However, unsolicited contributions are also highly encouraged. The guest editors aim for diversity and balance in contributions and authors, encouraging researchers from developing countries, women, and underrepresented minorities to contribute to this special issue.

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27 Mar 2024
Effective Storm Surge Evacuation Planning Coupling Risk Assessment and DRL: A Case Study of Daya Bay Petrochemical Industrial Zone
Chuanfeng Liu, Yan Li, Wenjuan Li, Hao Qin, Lin Mu, Si Wang, Darong Liu, and Kai Zhou
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2280,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2280, 2024
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: final response, 2 comments)
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01 Mar 2024
Seasonal forecasting of local-scale soil moisture droughts with Global BROOK90: a case study of the European drought of 2018
Ivan Vorobevskii, Thi Thanh Luong, and Rico Kronenberg
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 681–697, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-681-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-681-2024, 2024
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05 Feb 2024
Surprise floods: the role of our imagination in preparing for disasters
Joy Ommer, Jess Neumann, Milan Kalas, Sophie Blackburn, and Hannah L. Cloke
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-296,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-296, 2024
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: final response, 4 comments)
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01 Feb 2024
Towards a global impact-based forecasting model for tropical cyclones
Mersedeh Kooshki Forooshani, Marc van den Homberg, Kyriaki Kalimeri, Andreas Kaltenbrunner, Yelena Mejova, Leonardo Milano, Pauline Ndirangu, Daniela Paolotti, Aklilu Teklesadik, and Monica L. Turner
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 309–329, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-309-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-309-2024, 2024
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26 Jan 2024
Impact-based flood forecasting in the Greater Horn of Africa
Lorenzo Alfieri, Andrea Libertino, Lorenzo Campo, Francesco Dottori, Simone Gabellani, Tatiana Ghizzoni, Alessandro Masoero, Lauro Rossi, Roberto Rudari, Nicola Testa, Eva Trasforini, Ahmed Amdihun, Jully Ouma, Luca Rossi, Yves Tramblay, Huan Wu, and Marco Massabò
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 199–224, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-199-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-199-2024, 2024
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22 Jan 2024
Quasi Real-Time Tsunami Early Warning Assessment Based on Finite Fault models
Matías Sifón, Mauricio Fuentes, Sebastian Riquelme, Rodrigo Sánchez, and Sebastian Arriola
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-3061,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-3061, 2024
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: final response, 2 comments)
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17 Jan 2024
Simulating the effects of sea level rise and soil salinization on adaptation and migration decisions in Mozambique
Kushagra Pandey, Jens A. de Bruijn, Hans de Moel, Wouter Botzen, and Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-17,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-17, 2024
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: final response, 4 comments)
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02 Nov 2023
Assessing the ability of a new seamless short-range ensemble rainfall product to anticipate flash floods in the French Mediterranean area
Juliette Godet, Olivier Payrastre, Pierre Javelle, and François Bouttier
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3355–3377, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3355-2023,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3355-2023, 2023
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01 Sep 2023
An integrated tsunami inundation and risk analysis at the Makran Coast, Pakistan
Rashid Haider, Sajid Ali, Gösta Hoffmann, and Klaus Reicherter
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-148,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-148, 2023
Revised manuscript under review for NHESS (discussion: final response, 4 comments)
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10 Aug 2023
Addressing Class Imbalance in Soil Movement Predictions
Praveen Kumar, Priyanka Priyanka, Kala Venkata Uday, and Varun Dutt
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1417,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1417, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS (discussion: final response, 6 comments)
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10 Aug 2023
Subseasonal-to-seasonal forecasts of Heat waves in West African cities
Cedric Gacial Ngoungue Langue, Christophe Lavaysse, and Cyrille Flamant
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-144,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-144, 2023
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: final response, 4 comments)
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