Articles | Volume 23, issue 12
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3845-2023
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3845-2023
Research article
 | 
18 Dec 2023
Research article |  | 18 Dec 2023

Return levels of extreme European windstorms, their dependency on the North Atlantic Oscillation, and potential future risks

Matthew D. K. Priestley, David B. Stephenson, Adam A. Scaife, Daniel Bannister, Christopher J. T. Allen, and David Wilkie

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Cited articles

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Bloomfield, H. C., Shaffrey, L. C., Hodges, K. I., and Vidale, P. L.: A critical assessment of the long-term changes in the wintertime surface Arctic Oscillation and Northern Hemisphere storminess in the ERA20C reanalysis, Environ. Res. Lett., 13, 094004, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aad5c5, 2018. a
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This research presents a model for estimating extreme gusts associated with European windstorms. Using observed storm footprints we are able to calculate the return level of events at the 200-year return period. The largest gusts are found across NW Europe, and these are larger when the North Atlantic Oscillation is positive. Using theoretical future climate states we find that return levels are likely to increase across NW Europe to levels that are unprecedented compared to historical storms.
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