Return levels of extreme European windstorms, their dependency  on the North Atlantic Oscillation, and potential future risks

Priestley, Matthew D. K.; Stephenson, David B.; Scaife, Adam A.; Bannister, Daniel; Allen, Christopher J. T.; Wilkie, David

doi:10.5194/nhess-23-3845-2023

Articles | Volume 23, issue 12

https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3845-2023

© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3845-2023

© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Articles | Volume 23, issue 12

Research article

|

18 Dec 2023

Research article |

| 18 Dec 2023

Return levels of extreme European windstorms, their dependency on the North Atlantic Oscillation, and potential future risks

Matthew D. K. Priestley, David B. Stephenson, Adam A. Scaife, Daniel Bannister, Christopher J. T. Allen, and David Wilkie

Viewed

Total article views: 5,460 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)

HTML	PDF	XML	Total	Supplement	BibTeX	EndNote
3,870	1,477	113	5,460	318	206	203

HTML: 3,870
PDF: 1,477
XML: 113
Total: 5,460
Supplement: 318
BibTeX: 206
EndNote: 203

Views and downloads (calculated since 14 Feb 2023)

Month	HTML	PDF	XML	Total
Feb 2023	181	59	4	244
Mar 2023	129	47	2	178
Apr 2023	87	49	8	144
May 2023	73	44	3	120
Jun 2023	53	23	2	78
Jul 2023	50	38	2	90
Aug 2023	50	23	1	74
Sep 2023	45	26	0	71
Oct 2023	31	20	1	52
Nov 2023	19	15	0	34
Dec 2023	211	39	4	254
Jan 2024	223	41	5	269
Feb 2024	74	22	2	98
Mar 2024	59	24	2	85
Apr 2024	72	25	4	101
May 2024	158	40	3	201
Jun 2024	90	21	3	114
Jul 2024	71	22	7	100
Aug 2024	53	29	4	86
Sep 2024	64	6	3	73
Oct 2024	65	12	1	78
Nov 2024	99	10	1	110
Dec 2024	31	11	0	42
Jan 2025	43	18	3	64
Feb 2025	45	10	3	58
Mar 2025	31	17	1	49
Apr 2025	47	14	3	64
May 2025	63	18	3	84
Jun 2025	114	35	1	150
Jul 2025	48	28	3	79
Aug 2025	69	35	1	105
Sep 2025	173	25	1	199
Oct 2025	75	36	5	116
Nov 2025	108	51	2	161
Dec 2025	151	107	10	268
Jan 2026	494	158	8	660
Feb 2026	244	54	2	300
Mar 2026	93	113	3	209
Apr 2026	84	112	2	198

Cumulative views and downloads (calculated since 14 Feb 2023)

Month	HTML	PDF	XML	Total
Feb 2023	181	59	4	244
Mar 2023	129	47	2	178
Apr 2023	87	49	8	144
May 2023	73	44	3	120
Jun 2023	53	23	2	78
Jul 2023	50	38	2	90
Aug 2023	50	23	1	74
Sep 2023	45	26	0	71
Oct 2023	31	20	1	52
Nov 2023	19	15	0	34
Dec 2023	211	39	4	254
Jan 2024	223	41	5	269
Feb 2024	74	22	2	98
Mar 2024	59	24	2	85
Apr 2024	72	25	4	101
May 2024	158	40	3	201
Jun 2024	90	21	3	114
Jul 2024	71	22	7	100
Aug 2024	53	29	4	86
Sep 2024	64	6	3	73
Oct 2024	65	12	1	78
Nov 2024	99	10	1	110
Dec 2024	31	11	0	42
Jan 2025	43	18	3	64
Feb 2025	45	10	3	58
Mar 2025	31	17	1	49
Apr 2025	47	14	3	64
May 2025	63	18	3	84
Jun 2025	114	35	1	150
Jul 2025	48	28	3	79
Aug 2025	69	35	1	105
Sep 2025	173	25	1	199
Oct 2025	75	36	5	116
Nov 2025	108	51	2	161
Dec 2025	151	107	10	268
Jan 2026	494	158	8	660
Feb 2026	244	54	2	300
Mar 2026	93	113	3	209
Apr 2026	84	112	2	198

Viewed (geographical distribution)

Total article views: 5,460 (including HTML, PDF, and XML) Thereof 5,270 with geography defined and 190 with unknown origin.

Country	#	Views	%

1

1

Cited

Saved (final revised paper)

Latest update: 30 Apr 2026

Download

Article (10019 KB)
Full-text XML

Short summary

This research presents a model for estimating extreme gusts associated with European windstorms. Using observed storm footprints we are able to calculate the return level of events at the 200-year return period. The largest gusts are found across NW Europe, and these are larger when the North Atlantic Oscillation is positive. Using theoretical future climate states we find that return levels are likely to increase across NW Europe to levels that are unprecedented compared to historical storms.