Return levels of extreme European windstorms, their dependency  on the North Atlantic Oscillation, and potential future risks

Priestley, Matthew D. K.; Stephenson, David B.; Scaife, Adam A.; Bannister, Daniel; Allen, Christopher J. T.; Wilkie, David

doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3845-2023

Articles | Volume 23, issue 12

https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3845-2023

© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3845-2023

© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Articles | Volume 23, issue 12

Research article

|

18 Dec 2023

Research article |

| 18 Dec 2023

Return levels of extreme European windstorms, their dependency on the North Atlantic Oscillation, and potential future risks

Matthew D. K. Priestley, David B. Stephenson, Adam A. Scaife, Daniel Bannister, Christopher J. T. Allen, and David Wilkie

Supplement

https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3845-2023-supplement

Data sets

ERA5 hourly data on pressure levels from 1979 to present H. Hersbach, B. Bell, P. Berrisford, G. Biavati, A. Horányi, J. Muñoz Sabater, J. Nicolas, C. Peubey, R. Radu, I. Rozum, D. Schepers, A. Simmons, C. Soci, D. Dee, and J.-N. Thépaut https://doi.org/10.24381/cds.bd0915c6

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Short summary

This research presents a model for estimating extreme gusts associated with European windstorms. Using observed storm footprints we are able to calculate the return level of events at the 200-year return period. The largest gusts are found across NW Europe, and these are larger when the North Atlantic Oscillation is positive. Using theoretical future climate states we find that return levels are likely to increase across NW Europe to levels that are unprecedented compared to historical storms.