Articles | Volume 23, issue 3
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1045-2023
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1045-2023
Research article
 | 
10 Mar 2023
Research article |  | 10 Mar 2023

Human influence on growing-period frosts like in early April 2021 in central France

Robert Vautard, Geert Jan van Oldenborgh, Rémy Bonnet, Sihan Li, Yoann Robin, Sarah Kew, Sjoukje Philip, Jean-Michel Soubeyroux, Brigitte Dubuisson, Nicolas Viovy, Markus Reichstein, Friederike Otto, and Iñaki Garcia de Cortazar-Atauri

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Cited articles

AGRESTE: Bilan conjoncturel 2021, Synthèses conjoncturelles, December 2021, Nb 383, AGRESTE, Ministère de l'Agriculture et de l'Alimentation, https://agreste.agriculture.gouv.fr/agreste-web/download/publication/publie/BilanConj2021/Bilan_conjoncturel_2021_Definitif.pdf last access: 28 February 2023), 2021 (in French). 
Barnes, E. A. and Screen, J. A.: The impact of Arctic warming on the midlatitude jet-stream: Can it? Has it? Will it?, WIREs Clim. Change, 6, 277–286, https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.337, 2015. 
Bartók, B., Tobin, I., Vautard, R., Vrac, M., Jin, X., Levavasseur, G., Denvil, S., Dubus, L., Parey, S., Michelangeli, P.-A., Troccoli, A., and Saint-Drenan, Y. M.: A climate projection dataset tailored for the European energy sector. Climate services, 16, 100138, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cliser.2019.100138, 2019. 
Blackport, R., and Screen, J. A.: Insignificant effect of Arctic amplification on the amplitude of midlatitude atmospheric waves, Science Advances, 6, eaay2880, https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aay288, 2020. 
Besson, F., Dubuisson, B., Etchevers, P., Gibelin, A.-L., Lassegues, P., Schneider, M., and Vincendon, B.: Climate monitoring and heat and cold waves detection over France using a new spatialization of daily temperature extremes from 1947 to present, Adv. Sci. Res., 16, 149–156, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-16-149-2019, 2019. 
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Short summary
A deep frost occurred in early April 2021, inducing severe damages in grapevine and fruit trees in France. We found that such extreme frosts occurring after the start of the growing season such as those of April 2021 are currently about 2°C colder [0.5 °C to 3.3 °C] in observations than in preindustrial climate. This observed intensification of growing-period frosts is attributable, at least in part, to human-caused climate change, making the 2021 event 50 % more likely [10 %–110 %].
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