Articles | Volume 22, issue 9
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2891-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Special issue:
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2891-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| Highlight paper
| 
02 Sep 2022
Research article | Highlight paper |
| 02 Sep 2022
| 02 Sep 2022
Comprehensive space–time hydrometeorological simulations for estimating very rare floods at multiple sites in a large river basin
Daniel Viviroli
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Department of Geography, University of Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
Anna E. Sikorska-Senoner
Department of Geography, University of Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
Guillaume Evin
Université Grenoble Alpes, INRAE, UR ETNA, Grenoble, France
Maria Staudinger
Department of Geography, University of Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
Martina Kauzlaric
Mobiliar Lab for Natural Risks, University of Bern, Bern,
Switzerland
Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern,
Bern, Switzerland
Jérémy Chardon
Université Grenoble Alpes, CNRS, IRD, Grenoble INP, IGE,
Grenoble, France
Anne-Catherine Favre
Université Grenoble Alpes, CNRS, IRD, Grenoble INP, IGE,
Grenoble, France
Benoit Hingray
Université Grenoble Alpes, CNRS, IRD, Grenoble INP, IGE,
Grenoble, France
Gilles Nicolet
Université Grenoble Alpes, CNRS, IRD, Grenoble INP, IGE,
Grenoble, France
Damien Raynaud
Université Grenoble Alpes, CNRS, IRD, Grenoble INP, IGE,
Grenoble, France
Jan Seibert
Department of Geography, University of Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
Department of Aquatic Sciences and Assessment, Swedish University
of Agricultural Sciences, Uppsala, Sweden
Rolf Weingartner
Mobiliar Lab for Natural Risks, University of Bern, Bern,
Switzerland
Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern,
Bern, Switzerland
Calvin Whealton
Paul Scherrer Institute, Villigen, Switzerland
now at: Booz Allen Hamilton, Lexington Park, Maryland, United States
Related authors
Maria Staudinger, Martina Kauzlaric, Alexandre Mas, Guillaume Evin, Benoit Hingray, and Daniel Viviroli
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-909, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-909, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Various combinations of antecedent conditions and precipitation result in floods of varying degrees. Antecedent conditions played a crucial role in generating even large. The key predictors and spatial patterns of antecedent conditions leading to flooding at the basin's outlet were distinct. Precipitation and soil moisture from almost all sub-catchments were important for more frequent floods. For rarer events, only the predictors of specific sub-catchments were important.
Sarah Hanus, Lilian Schuster, Peter Burek, Fabien Maussion, Yoshihide Wada, and Daniel Viviroli
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2562, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2562, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study presents a coupling of the large-scale glacier model OGGM and the hydrological model CWatM. Projected future increase in discharge is less strong, while future decrease in discharge is stronger when glacier runoff is explicitly included in the large-scale hydrological model. The reason is that glacier runoff is projected to decrease in nearly all basins. We conclude that an improved glacier representation can prevent underestimating future discharge changes in large river basins.
Marvin Höge, Martina Kauzlaric, Rosi Siber, Ursula Schönenberger, Pascal Horton, Jan Schwanbeck, Marius Günter Floriancic, Daniel Viviroli, Sibylle Wilhelm, Anna E. Sikorska-Senoner, Nans Addor, Manuela Brunner, Sandra Pool, Massimiliano Zappa, and Fabrizio Fenicia
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 5755–5784, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-5755-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-5755-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
CAMELS-CH is an open large-sample hydro-meteorological data set that covers 331 catchments in hydrologic Switzerland from 1 January 1981 to 31 December 2020. It comprises (a) daily data of river discharge and water level as well as meteorologic variables like precipitation and temperature; (b) yearly glacier and land cover data; (c) static attributes of, e.g, topography or human impact; and (d) catchment delineations. CAMELS-CH enables water and climate research and modeling at catchment level.
Maria Staudinger, Martina Kauzlaric, Alexandre Mas, Guillaume Evin, Benoit Hingray, and Daniel Viviroli
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-909, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-909, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Various combinations of antecedent conditions and precipitation result in floods of varying degrees. Antecedent conditions played a crucial role in generating even large. The key predictors and spatial patterns of antecedent conditions leading to flooding at the basin's outlet were distinct. Precipitation and soil moisture from almost all sub-catchments were important for more frequent floods. For rarer events, only the predictors of specific sub-catchments were important.
Franziska Maria Clerc-Schwarzenbach, Giovanni Selleri, Mattia Neri, Elena Toth, Ilja van Meerveld, and Jan Seibert
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-864, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-864, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We compare the catchment forcing data provided in large-sample datasets, namely the Caravan dataset and three of the original CAMELS datasets (US, BR, GB). We show that the differences affect hydrological model performance and that the data quality in the Caravan dataset is lower than the one in the CAMELS datasets, both for precipitation and potential evapotranspiration. We want to raise awareness of the lower data quality in Caravan and we suggest possible improvements for the Caravan dataset.
Sarah Hanus, Lilian Schuster, Peter Burek, Fabien Maussion, Yoshihide Wada, and Daniel Viviroli
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2562, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2562, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study presents a coupling of the large-scale glacier model OGGM and the hydrological model CWatM. Projected future increase in discharge is less strong, while future decrease in discharge is stronger when glacier runoff is explicitly included in the large-scale hydrological model. The reason is that glacier runoff is projected to decrease in nearly all basins. We conclude that an improved glacier representation can prevent underestimating future discharge changes in large river basins.
Guillaume Evin, Matthieu Le Lay, Catherine Fouchier, David Penot, Francois Colleoni, Alexandre Mas, Pierre-André Garambois, and Olivier Laurantin
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 261–281, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-261-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-261-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Hydrological modelling of mountainous catchments is challenging for many reasons, the main one being the temporal and spatial representation of precipitation forcings. This study presents an evaluation of the hydrological modelling of 55 small mountainous catchments of the northern French Alps, focusing on the influence of the type of precipitation reanalyses used as inputs. These evaluations emphasize the added value of radar measurements, in particular for the reproduction of flood events.
Valentin Dura, Guillaume Evin, Anne-Catherine Favre, and David Penot
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-3124, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-3124, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Precipitation Lapse Rates (PLRs), defined as the increasing or decreasing rate of precipitation amounts with elevation, influence high-altitude precipitation estimation. This study presents an assessment of PLRs on 2,748 small catchments in France over four seasons. These evaluations emphasize the benefit of convection-permitting regional climate model simulations to study the spatial variability of seasonal PLRs at a fine scale.
Marvin Höge, Martina Kauzlaric, Rosi Siber, Ursula Schönenberger, Pascal Horton, Jan Schwanbeck, Marius Günter Floriancic, Daniel Viviroli, Sibylle Wilhelm, Anna E. Sikorska-Senoner, Nans Addor, Manuela Brunner, Sandra Pool, Massimiliano Zappa, and Fabrizio Fenicia
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 5755–5784, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-5755-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-5755-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
CAMELS-CH is an open large-sample hydro-meteorological data set that covers 331 catchments in hydrologic Switzerland from 1 January 1981 to 31 December 2020. It comprises (a) daily data of river discharge and water level as well as meteorologic variables like precipitation and temperature; (b) yearly glacier and land cover data; (c) static attributes of, e.g, topography or human impact; and (d) catchment delineations. CAMELS-CH enables water and climate research and modeling at catchment level.
Isabelle Ousset, Guillaume Evin, Damien Raynaud, and Thierry Faug
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3509–3523, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3509-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3509-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This paper deals with an exceptional snow and rain event in a Mediterranean region of France which is usually not prone to heavy snowfall and its consequences on a particular building that collapsed completely. Independent analyses of the meteorological episode are carried out, and the response of the building to different snow and rain loads is confronted to identify the main critical factors that led to the collapse.
Erwan Le Roux, Guillaume Evin, Raphaëlle Samacoïts, Nicolas Eckert, Juliette Blanchet, and Samuel Morin
The Cryosphere, 17, 4691–4704, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4691-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4691-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We assess projected changes in snowfall extremes in the French Alps as a function of elevation and global warming level for a high-emission scenario. On average, heavy snowfall is projected to decrease below 3000 m and increase above 3600 m, while extreme snowfall is projected to decrease below 2400 m and increase above 3300 m. At elevations in between, an increase is projected until +3 °C of global warming and then a decrease. These results have implications for the management of risks.
Kaltrina Maloku, Benoit Hingray, and Guillaume Evin
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 3643–3661, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3643-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3643-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
High-resolution precipitation data, needed for many applications in hydrology, are typically rare. Such data can be simulated from daily precipitation with stochastic disaggregation. In this work, multiplicative random cascades are used to disaggregate time series of 40 min precipitation from daily precipitation for 81 Swiss stations. We show that very relevant statistics of precipitation are obtained when precipitation asymmetry is accounted for in a continuous way in the cascade generator.
Juliette Blanchet, Alix Reverdy, Antoine Blanc, Jean-Dominique Creutin, Périne Kiennemann, and Guillaume Evin
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2023-197, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2023-197, 2023
Revised manuscript under review for HESS
Short summary
Short summary
The Alpine region is strongly affected by torrential floods, sometimes leading to severe negative impacts on society, economy, and the environment. Understanding such natural hazards and their drivers is essential to mitigate related risks. In this article we study the atmospheric conditions at the origin of damaging torrential events in the Northern French Alps over the long run, using a database of reported occurrence of damaging torrential flooding in the Grenoble conurbation since 1851.
Laurent Strohmenger, Eric Sauquet, Claire Bernard, Jérémie Bonneau, Flora Branger, Amélie Bresson, Pierre Brigode, Rémy Buzier, Olivier Delaigue, Alexandre Devers, Guillaume Evin, Maïté Fournier, Shu-Chen Hsu, Sandra Lanini, Alban de Lavenne, Thibault Lemaitre-Basset, Claire Magand, Guilherme Mendoza Guimarães, Max Mentha, Simon Munier, Charles Perrin, Tristan Podechard, Léo Rouchy, Malak Sadki, Myriam Soutif-Bellenger, François Tilmant, Yves Tramblay, Anne-Lise Véron, Jean-Philippe Vidal, and Guillaume Thirel
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 3375–3391, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3375-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3375-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We present the results of a large visual inspection campaign of 674 streamflow time series in France. The objective was to detect non-natural records resulting from instrument failure or anthropogenic influences, such as hydroelectric power generation or reservoir management. We conclude that the identification of flaws in flow time series is highly dependent on the objectives and skills of individual evaluators, and we raise the need for better practices for data cleaning.
Maxime Morel, Guillaume Piton, Damien Kuss, Guillaume Evin, and Caroline Le Bouteiller
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1769–1787, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1769-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1769-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In mountain catchments, damage during floods is generally primarily driven by the supply of a massive amount of sediment. Predicting how much sediment can be delivered by frequent and infrequent events is thus important in hazard studies. This paper uses data gathered during the maintenance operation of about 100 debris retention basins to build simple equations aiming at predicting sediment supply from simple parameters describing the upstream catchment.
Jana Erdbrügger, Ilja van Meerveld, Jan Seibert, and Kevin Bishop
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 1779–1800, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-1779-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-1779-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Groundwater can respond quickly to precipitation and is the main source of streamflow in most catchments in humid, temperate climates. To better understand shallow groundwater dynamics, we installed a network of groundwater wells in two boreal headwater catchments in Sweden. We recorded groundwater levels in 75 wells for 2 years and sampled the water and analyzed its chemical composition in one summer. This paper describes these datasets.
Caroline Legrand, Benoît Hingray, Bruno Wilhelm, and Martin Ménégoz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2023-92, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2023-92, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for HESS
Short summary
Short summary
Climate change is expected to increase flood hazard worldwide. The evolution is typically estimated from multi-model chains, where regional hydrological scenarios are simulated from weather scenarios derived from coarse resolution atmospheric outputs of climate models. We show that two such chains are able to reproduce, from an atmospheric reanalysis, the 1902–2009 discharge variations and floods of the Upper Rhône alpine River, provided that the weather scenarios are bias-corrected.
Cécile Duvillier, Nicolas Eckert, Guillaume Evin, and Michael Deschâtres
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1383–1408, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1383-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1383-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This study develops a method that identifies individual potential release areas (PRAs) of snow avalanches based on terrain analysis and watershed delineation and demonstrates its efficiency in the French Alps context using an extensive cadastre of past avalanche limits. Results may contribute to better understanding local avalanche hazard. The work may also foster the development of more efficient PRA detection methods based on a rigorous evaluation scheme.
Sarah Shannon, Anthony Payne, Jim Freer, Gemma Coxon, Martina Kauzlaric, David Kriegel, and Stephan Harrison
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 453–480, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-453-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-453-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Climate change poses a potential threat to water supply in glaciated river catchments. In this study, we added a snowmelt and glacier melt model to the Dynamic fluxEs and ConnectIvity for Predictions of HydRology model (DECIPHeR). The model is applied to the Naryn River catchment in central Asia and is found to reproduce past change discharge and the spatial extent of seasonal snow cover well.
Juliette Blanchet, Alix Reverdy, Antoine Blanc, Jean-Dominique Creutin, Périne Kiennemann, and Guillaume Evin
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2022-276, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2022-276, 2023
Manuscript not accepted for further review
Short summary
Short summary
We study the atmospheric conditions at the origin of damaging torrential events in the Northern French Alps over the long run. We consider seven atmospheric variables that describe the nature of the air masses involved and the possible triggers of precipitation and we try to isolate the most discriminating variables. The results show that humidity and particularly humidity transport plays the greatest role under westerly flows while instability potential is mostly at play under southerly flows.
Rosanna A. Lane, Gemma Coxon, Jim Freer, Jan Seibert, and Thorsten Wagener
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 5535–5554, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5535-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5535-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This study modelled the impact of climate change on river high flows across Great Britain (GB). Generally, results indicated an increase in the magnitude and frequency of high flows along the west coast of GB by 2050–2075. In contrast, average flows decreased across GB. All flow projections contained large uncertainties; the climate projections were the largest source of uncertainty overall but hydrological modelling uncertainties were considerable in some regions.
Nicole Clerx, Horst Machguth, Andrew Tedstone, Nicolas Jullien, Nander Wever, Rolf Weingartner, and Ole Roessler
The Cryosphere, 16, 4379–4401, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4379-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4379-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Meltwater runoff is one of the main contributors to mass loss on the Greenland Ice Sheet that influences global sea level rise. However, it remains unclear where meltwater runs off and what processes cause this. We measured the velocity of meltwater flow through snow on the ice sheet, which ranged from 0.17–12.8 m h−1 for vertical percolation and from 1.3–15.1 m h−1 for lateral flow. This is an important step towards understanding where, when and why meltwater runoff occurs on the ice sheet.
Erwan Le Roux, Guillaume Evin, Nicolas Eckert, Juliette Blanchet, and Samuel Morin
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 1059–1075, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1059-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1059-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Anticipating risks related to climate extremes is critical for societal adaptation to climate change. In this study, we propose a statistical method in order to estimate future climate extremes from past observations and an ensemble of climate change simulations. We apply this approach to snow load data available in the French Alps at 1500 m elevation and find that extreme snow load is projected to decrease by −2.9 kN m−2 (−50 %) between 1986–2005 and 2080–2099 for a high-emission scenario.
Jan Seibert and Sten Bergström
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1371–1388, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1371-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1371-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Hydrological catchment models are commonly used as the basis for water resource management planning. The HBV model, which is a typical example of such a model, was first applied about 50 years ago in Sweden. We describe and reflect on the model development and applications. The aim is to provide an understanding of the background of model development and a basis for addressing the balance between model complexity and data availability that will continue to face hydrologists in the future.
Guillaume Evin, Samuel Somot, and Benoit Hingray
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 1543–1569, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1543-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1543-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
This research paper proposes an assessment of mean climate change responses and related uncertainties over Europe for mean seasonal temperature and total seasonal precipitation. An advanced statistical approach is applied to a large ensemble of 87 high-resolution EURO-CORDEX projections. For the first time, we provide a comprehensive estimation of the relative contribution of GCMs and RCMs, RCP scenarios, and internal variability to the total variance of a very large ensemble.
Philipp Wanner, Noemi Buri, Kevin Wyss, Andreas Zischg, Rolf Weingartner, Jan Baumgartner, Benjamin Berger, and Christoph Wanner
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2021-512, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2021-512, 2021
Preprint withdrawn
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, we quantified the glacial meltwater contribution to mountainous streams using high-resolution stable water isotope analysis. The glacial meltwater made up almost 28 % of the annual mountainous stream discharges. This high contribution demonstrates that the mountainous streamflow regimes will change in the future when the glacial meltwater contribution will disappear due to global warming posing a major challenge for hydropower energy production in mountainous regions.
Guillaume Evin, Matthieu Lafaysse, Maxime Taillardat, and Michaël Zamo
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 28, 467–480, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-28-467-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-28-467-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Forecasting the height of new snow is essential for avalanche hazard surveys, road and ski resort management, tourism attractiveness, etc. Météo-France operates a probabilistic forecasting system using a numerical weather prediction system and a snowpack model. It provides better forecasts than direct diagnostics but exhibits significant biases. Post-processing methods can be applied to provide automatic forecasting products from this system.
Erwan Le Roux, Guillaume Evin, Nicolas Eckert, Juliette Blanchet, and Samuel Morin
The Cryosphere, 15, 4335–4356, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-4335-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-4335-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Extreme snowfall can cause major natural hazards (avalanches, winter storms) that can generate casualties and economic damage. In the French Alps, we show that between 1959 and 2019 extreme snowfall mainly decreased below 2000 m of elevation and increased above 2000 m. At 2500 m, we find a contrasting pattern: extreme snowfall decreased in the north, while it increased in the south. This pattern might be related to increasing trends in extreme snowfall observed near the Mediterranean Sea.
Silja Stefnisdóttir, Anna E. Sikorska-Senoner, Eyjólfur I. Ásgeirsson, and David C. Finger
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2021-325, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2021-325, 2021
Manuscript not accepted for further review
Short summary
Short summary
We combine multiple dataset calibration with metaheuristic calibration techniques, namely Mone Carlo (MC), Simulated Annealing (SA) and Genetic Algorithms (GA), to improve hydrological models. Our results demonstrate that GA improves the overall performance of hydrological models. This leads to precise scenario simulations and, accordingly, is a major achievement in hydrology.
Regula Muelchi, Ole Rössler, Jan Schwanbeck, Rolf Weingartner, and Olivia Martius
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 3577–3594, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3577-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3577-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
This study analyses changes in magnitude, frequency, and seasonality of moderate low and high flows for 93 catchments in Switzerland. In lower-lying catchments (below 1500 m a.s.l.), moderate low-flow magnitude (frequency) will decrease (increase). In Alpine catchments (above 1500 m a.s.l.), moderate low-flow magnitude (frequency) will increase (decrease). Moderate high flows tend to occur more frequent, and their magnitude increases in most catchments except some Alpine catchments.
Marit Van Tiel, Anne F. Van Loon, Jan Seibert, and Kerstin Stahl
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 3245–3265, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3245-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3245-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Glaciers can buffer streamflow during dry and warm periods, but under which circumstances can melt compensate precipitation deficits? Streamflow responses to warm and dry events were analyzed using
long-term observations of 50 glacierized catchments in Norway, Canada, and the European Alps. Region, timing of the event, relative glacier cover, and antecedent event conditions all affect the level of compensation during these events. This implies that glaciers do not compensate straightforwardly.
Regula Muelchi, Ole Rössler, Jan Schwanbeck, Rolf Weingartner, and Olivia Martius
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 3071–3086, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3071-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3071-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Runoff regimes in Switzerland will change significantly under climate change. Projected changes are strongly elevation dependent with earlier time of emergence and stronger changes in high-elevation catchments where snowmelt and glacier melt play an important role. The magnitude of change and the climate model agreement on the sign increase with increasing global mean temperatures and stronger emission scenarios. This amplification highlights the importance of climate change mitigation.
Camila Alvarez-Garreton, Juan Pablo Boisier, René Garreaud, Jan Seibert, and Marc Vis
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 429–446, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-429-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-429-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The megadrought experienced in Chile (2010–2020) has led to larger than expected water deficits. By analysing 106 basins with snow-/rainfall regimes, we relate such intensification with the hydrological memory of the basins, explained by snow and groundwater. Snow-dominated basins have larger memory and thus accumulate the effect of persistent precipitation deficits more strongly than pluvial basins. This notably affects central Chile, a water-limited region where most of the population lives.
Anna E. Sikorska-Senoner, Bettina Schaefli, and Jan Seibert
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3521–3549, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-3521-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-3521-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
This work proposes methods for reducing the computational requirements of hydrological simulations for the estimation of very rare floods that occur on average less than once in 1000 years. These methods enable the analysis of long streamflow time series (here for example 10 000 years) at low computational costs and with modelling uncertainty. They are to be used within continuous simulation frameworks with long input time series and are readily transferable to similar simulation tasks.
Maria Staudinger, Stefan Seeger, Barbara Herbstritt, Michael Stoelzle, Jan Seibert, Kerstin Stahl, and Markus Weiler
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 12, 3057–3066, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-3057-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-3057-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The data set CH-IRP provides isotope composition in precipitation and streamflow from 23 Swiss catchments, being unique regarding its long-term multi-catchment coverage along an alpine–pre-alpine gradient. CH-IRP contains fortnightly time series of stable water isotopes from streamflow grab samples complemented by time series in precipitation. Sampling conditions, catchment and climate information, lab standards and errors are provided together with areal precipitation and catchment boundaries.
Erwan Le Roux, Guillaume Evin, Nicolas Eckert, Juliette Blanchet, and Samuel Morin
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2961–2977, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2961-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2961-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
To minimize the risk of structure collapse due to extreme snow loads, structure standards rely on 50-year return levels of ground snow load (GSL), i.e. levels exceeded once every 50 years on average, that do not account for climate change. We study GSL data in the French Alps massifs from 1959 and 2019 and find that these 50-year return levels are decreasing with time between 900 and 4800 m of altitude, but they still exceed return levels of structure standards for half of the massifs at 1800 m.
Michael Stoelzle, Maria Staudinger, Kerstin Stahl, and Markus Weiler
Proc. IAHS, 383, 43–50, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-383-43-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-383-43-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The role of recharge and catchment storage is crucial to understand streamflow drought sensitivity. Here we introduce a model experiment with recharge stress tests as complement to climate scenarios to quantify the streamflow drought sensitivities of catchments in Switzerland. We identified a pre-drought period of 12 months as maximum storage-memory for the study catchments. From stress testing, we found up to 200 days longer summer streamflow droughts and minimum flow reductions of 50 %–80 %.
Marc Girons Lopez, Marc J. P. Vis, Michal Jenicek, Nena Griessinger, and Jan Seibert
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4441–4461, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-4441-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-4441-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Snow processes are crucial for runoff in mountainous areas, but their complexity makes water management difficult. Temperature models are widely used as they are simple and do not require much data, but not much thought is usually given to which model to use, which may lead to bad predictions. We studied the impact of many model alternatives and found that a more complex model does not necessarily perform better. Finding which processes are most important in each area is a much better strategy.
Damien Raynaud, Benoit Hingray, Guillaume Evin, Anne-Catherine Favre, and Jérémy Chardon
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4339–4352, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-4339-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-4339-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
This research paper proposes a weather generator combining two sampling approaches. A first generator recombines large-scale atmospheric situations. A second generator is applied to these atmospheric trajectories in order to simulate long time series of daily regional precipitation and temperature. The method is applied to daily time series in Switzerland. It reproduces adequately the observed climatology and improves the reproduction of extreme precipitation values.
Kirsti Hakala, Nans Addor, Thibault Gobbe, Johann Ruffieux, and Jan Seibert
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3815–3833, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-3815-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-3815-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Under a changing climate, reliable information on future hydrological conditions is necessary to inform water resource management. Here, we collaborated with a hydropower company that selected streamflow and energy demand indices. Using these indices, we identified stakeholder needs and used this to tailor the production of our climate change impact projections. We show that opportunities and risks for a hydropower company depend on a range of factors beyond those covered by traditional studies.
Leonie Kiewiet, Ilja van Meerveld, Manfred Stähli, and Jan Seibert
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3381–3398, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-3381-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-3381-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The sources of stream water are important, for instance, for predicting floods. The connectivity between streams and different (ground-)water sources can change during rain events, which affects the stream water composition. We investigated this for stream water sampled during four events and found that stream water came from different sources. The stream water composition changed gradually, and we showed that changes in solute concentrations could be partly linked to changes in connectivity.
Barbara Strobl, Simon Etter, H. J. Ilja van Meerveld, and Jan Seibert
Geosci. Commun., 3, 109–126, https://doi.org/10.5194/gc-3-109-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gc-3-109-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Training can deter people from joining a citizen science project but may be needed to ensure good data quality. In this study, we found that an online game that was originally developed for data quality control in a citizen science project can be used for training as well. These findings are useful for the development of training strategies for other citizen science projects because they indicate that gamified approaches might be valuable scalable training methods.
H. J. Ilja van Meerveld, James W. Kirchner, Marc J. P. Vis, Rick S. Assendelft, and Jan Seibert
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 4825–4834, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-4825-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-4825-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Flowing stream networks extend and retract seasonally and in response to precipitation. This affects the distances and thus the time that it takes a water molecule to reach the flowing stream and the stream outlet. When the network is fully extended, the travel times are short, but when the network retracts, the travel times become longer and more uniform. These dynamics should be included when modeling solute or pollutant transport.
Jari-Pekka Nousu, Matthieu Lafaysse, Matthieu Vernay, Joseph Bellier, Guillaume Evin, and Bruno Joly
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 26, 339–357, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-26-339-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-26-339-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Forecasting the height of new snow is crucial for avalanche hazard, road viability, ski resorts and tourism. The numerical models suffer from systematic and significant errors which are misleading for the final users. Here, we applied for the first time a state-of-the-art statistical method to correct ensemble numerical forecasts of the height of new snow from their statistical link with measurements in French Alps and Pyrenees. Thus the realism of automatic forecasts can be quickly improved.
Judith Meyer, Irene Kohn, Kerstin Stahl, Kirsti Hakala, Jan Seibert, and Alex J. Cannon
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1339–1354, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-1339-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-1339-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Several multivariate bias correction methods have been developed recently, but only a few studies have tested the effect of multivariate bias correction on hydrological impact projections. This study shows that incorporating or ignoring inter-variable relations between air temperature and precipitation can have a notable effect on the projected snowfall fraction. The effect translated to considerable consequences for the glacio-hydrological responses and streamflow components of the catchments.
Manuela I. Brunner, Reinhard Furrer, and Anne-Catherine Favre
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 107–124, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-107-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-107-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Floods often affect a whole region and not only a single location. When estimating the rarity of regional events, the dependence of floods at different locations should be taken into account. We propose a simple model that considers the dependence of flood events at different locations and the network structure of the river system. We test this model on a medium-sized catchment in Switzerland. The model allows for the simulations of flood event sets at multiple gauged and ungauged locations.
Simon Etter, Barbara Strobl, Jan Seibert, and H. J. Ilja van Meerveld
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 5243–5257, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-5243-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-5243-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
To evaluate the potential value of streamflow estimates for hydrological model calibration, we created synthetic streamflow datasets in various temporal resolutions based on the errors in streamflow estimates of 136 citizens. Our results show that streamflow estimates of untrained citizens are too inaccurate to be useful for model calibration. If, however, the errors can be reduced by training or filtering, the estimates become useful if also a sufficient number of estimates are available.
Guillaume Evin, Thomas Curt, and Nicolas Eckert
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 2641–2651, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-2641-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-2641-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Very large wildfires have high human, economic, and ecological impacts. Preventing such events is a major objective of the new fire policy set up in France in 1994, which is oriented towards fast and massive fire suppression. This study investigates the effect of this policy on the largest fires. We estimate the burned area corresponding to fires that occur every 5, 20, and 50 years on average (so-called return periods) in southern France.
Andreas Paul Zischg, Guido Felder, Rolf Weingartner, Niall Quinn, Gemma Coxon, Jeffrey Neal, Jim Freer, and Paul Bates
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2759–2773, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-2759-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-2759-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
We developed a model experiment and distributed different rainfall patterns over a mountain river basin. For each rainfall scenario, we computed the flood losses with a model chain. The experiment shows that flood losses vary considerably within the river basin and depend on the timing of the flood peaks from the basin's sub-catchments. Basin-specific characteristics such as the location of the main settlements within the floodplains play an additional important role in determining flood losses.
Daphné Freudiger, David Mennekes, Jan Seibert, and Markus Weiler
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 10, 805–814, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-805-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-805-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
To understand glacier changes in the Swiss Alps at the large scale, long-term datasets are needed. To fill the gap between the existing glacier inventories of the Swiss Alps between 1850 and 1973, we digitized glacier outlines from topographic historical maps of Switzerland for the time periods ca. 1900 and ca. 1935. We found that > 88 % of the digitized glacier area was plausible compared to four inventories. The presented dataset is therefore valuable information for long-term glacier studies.
Jan Seibert, Marc J. P. Vis, Irene Kohn, Markus Weiler, and Kerstin Stahl
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2211–2224, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-2211-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-2211-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
In many glacio-hydrological models glacier areas are assumed to be constant over time, which is a crucial limitation. Here we describe a novel approach to translate mass balances as simulated by the (glacio)hydrological model into glacier area changes. We combined the Δh approach of Huss et al. (2010) with the bucket-type model HBV and introduced a lookup table approach, which also allows periods with advancing glaciers to be represented, which is not possible with the original Huss method.
Simon Schick, Ole Rössler, and Rolf Weingartner
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 929–942, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-929-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-929-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Forecasting at the seasonal timescale aims to answer questions such as the following: how much water do we have next summer? Is next winter going to be extremely cold? Constrained by computer power, earth system models (ESMs) do not resolve all environmental variables of interest. Our study tests a method to refine the output of such an ESM for streamflow forecasting in the Rhine basin. The results show that the method is able to translate skill at different spatial scales.
Guillaume Evin, Anne-Catherine Favre, and Benoit Hingray
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 655–672, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-655-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-655-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
This research paper proposes a multi-site daily precipitation model, named GWEX, which aims to reproduce the statistical features of extremely rare events at different temporal and spatial scales. Recent advances and various statistical methods (regionalization, disaggregation) are considered in order to obtain a robust and appropriate representation of the most extreme precipitation fields. Performances are shown with an application to 105 stations, covering a large region in Switzerland.
Jérémy Chardon, Benoit Hingray, and Anne-Catherine Favre
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 265–286, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-265-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-265-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
We present a two-stage statistical downscaling model for the probabilistic prediction of local precipitation, where the downscaling statistical link is estimated from atmospheric circulation analogs of the current prediction day.
The model allows for a day-to-day adaptive and tailored downscaling. It can reveal specific predictors for peculiar and non-frequent weather configurations. This approach noticeably improves the skill of the prediction for both precipitation occurrence and quantity.
Sandra Pool, Marc J. P. Vis, Rodney R. Knight, and Jan Seibert
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 5443–5457, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-5443-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-5443-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
This modeling study explores the effect of different model calibration criteria on the accuracy of simulated streamflow characteristics (SFCs). The results imply that one has to consider significant uncertainties when simulated time series are used to derive SFCs that were not included in the calibration. Thus, we strongly recommend calibrating the runoff model explicitly for the SFCs of interest. Our study helps improve the estimation of SFCs for ungauged catchments based on runoff models.
Daniel B. Bernet, Volker Prasuhn, and Rolf Weingartner
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 1659–1682, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-1659-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-1659-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
To quantify the relevance of surface water floods in Switzerland, we introduce and analyze an exhaustive set of insurance flood damage claims. First, we present a method to classify such claims and then we analyze the classified data with respect to space and time. The results reveal that just as fluvial floods are responsible for vast damage in Switzerland, so too are surface water floods. Accordingly, surface water floods should receive similar attention like fluvial floods.
H. J. Ilja van Meerveld, Marc J. P. Vis, and Jan Seibert
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 4895–4905, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-4895-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-4895-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
We tested the usefulness of stream level class data for hydrological model calibration. Only two stream level classes, e.g. above or below a rock in the stream, were already informative, particularly when the boundary was chosen at a high stream level. There was hardly any improvement in model performance when using more than five stream level classes. These results suggest that model based streamflow time series can be obtained from citizen science based water level class data.
Simon Schick, Ole Rössler, and Rolf Weingartner
Proc. IAHS, 374, 159–163, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-374-159-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-374-159-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
In water resources management, planning at the seasonal time scale is confronted with large uncertainties. Key variables are often unknown or hard to forecast, e.g. precipitation of the next three months. In the present study, we try to highlight some aspects concerning the development of a model faced with these uncertainties. Using the example of statistical streamflow forecasts, the results of the study indicate that the forecast accuracy is improved by the combination of several models.
Tracy Ewen and Jan Seibert
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 4079–4091, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-4079-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-4079-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Games are an optimal way to teach about water resource sharing, as they allow real-world scenarios to be explored. We look at how games can be used to teach about water resource sharing, by both playing and developing water games. An evaluation of the web-based game Irrigania found Irrigania to be an effective and easy tool to incorporate into curriculum, and a course on developing water games encouraged students to think about water resource sharing in a more critical and insightful way.
Nena Griessinger, Jan Seibert, Jan Magnusson, and Tobias Jonas
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3895–3905, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-3895-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-3895-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
In Alpine catchments, snowmelt is a major contribution to runoff. In this study, we address the question of whether the performance of a hydrological model can be enhanced by integrating data from an external snow monitoring system. To this end, a hydrological model was driven with snowmelt input from snow models of different complexities. Best performance was obtained with a snow model, which utilized data assimilation, in particular for catchments at higher elevations and for snow-rich years.
Jean-Philippe Vidal, Benoît Hingray, Claire Magand, Eric Sauquet, and Agnès Ducharne
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3651–3672, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-3651-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-3651-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Possible transient futures of winter and summer low flows for two snow-influenced catchments in the southern French Alps show a strong decrease signal. It is however largely masked by the year-to-year variability, which should be the main target for defining adaptation strategies. Responses of different hydrological models strongly diverge in the future, suggesting to carefully check the robustness of evapotranspiration and snowpack components under a changing climate.
Michal Jenicek, Jan Seibert, Massimiliano Zappa, Maria Staudinger, and Tobias Jonas
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 859–874, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-859-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-859-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
We quantified how long snowmelt affects runoff, and we estimated the sensitivity of catchments to changes in snowpack. This is relevant as the increase of air temperature might cause decreased snow storage. We used time series from 14 catchments in Switzerland. On average, a decrease of maximum snow storage by 10 % caused a decrease of minimum discharge in July by 2 to 9 %. The results showed a higher sensitivity of summer low flow to snow in alpine catchments compared to pre-alpine catchments.
P. Froidevaux, J. Schwanbeck, R. Weingartner, C. Chevalier, and O. Martius
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 3903–3924, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-3903-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-3903-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate precipitation characteristics prior to 4000 annual floods in Switzerland since 1961. The floods were preceded by heavy precipitation, but in most catchments extreme precipitation occurred only during the last 3 days prior to the flood events. Precipitation sums for earlier time periods (like e.g. 4-14 days prior to floods) were mostly average and do not correlate with the return period of the floods.
M. Rinderer, H. C. Komakech, D. Müller, G. L. B. Wiesenberg, and J. Seibert
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 3505–3516, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-3505-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-3505-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
A field method for assessing soil moisture in semi-arid conditions is proposed and tested in terms of inter-rater reliability with 40 Tanzanian farmers, students and experts. The seven wetness classes are based on qualitative indicators that one can see, feel or hear. It could be shown that the qualitative wetness classes reflect differences in volumetric water content and neither experience nor a certain level of education was a prerequisite to gain high agreement among raters.
J. E. Reynolds, S. Halldin, C. Y. Xu, J. Seibert, and A. Kauffeldt
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hessd-12-7437-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hessd-12-7437-2015, 2015
Revised manuscript not accepted
Short summary
Short summary
In this study it was found that time-scale dependencies of hydrological model parameters are a result of the numerical method used in the model rather than a real time-scale-data dependence. This study further indicates that as soon as sub-daily driving data can be secured, flood forecasting in watersheds with sub-daily concentration times is possible with model parameter values inferred from long time series of daily data, as long as an appropriate numerical method is used.
A. Kuentz, T. Mathevet, J. Gailhard, and B. Hingray
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2717–2736, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-2717-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-2717-2015, 2015
M. Staudinger, M. Weiler, and J. Seibert
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1371–1384, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-1371-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-1371-2015, 2015
B. François, B. Hingray, F. Hendrickx, and J. D. Creutin
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 3787–3800, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-3787-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-3787-2014, 2014
I. K. Westerberg, L. Gong, K. J. Beven, J. Seibert, A. Semedo, C.-Y. Xu, and S. Halldin
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 2993–3013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-2993-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-2993-2014, 2014
O. Rössler, P. Froidevaux, U. Börst, R. Rickli, O. Martius, and R. Weingartner
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 2265–2285, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-2265-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-2265-2014, 2014
P. Schneider, S. Pool, L. Strouhal, and J. Seibert
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 875–892, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-875-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-875-2014, 2014
R. Weingartner, B. Schädler, and P. Hänggi
Geogr. Helv., 68, 239–248, https://doi.org/10.5194/gh-68-239-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/gh-68-239-2013, 2013
C. Teutschbein and J. Seibert
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 5061–5077, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-5061-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-5061-2013, 2013
D. Finger, A. Hugentobler, M. Huss, A. Voinesco, H. Wernli, D. Fischer, E. Weber, P.-Y. Jeannin, M. Kauzlaric, A. Wirz, T. Vennemann, F. Hüsler, B. Schädler, and R. Weingartner
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 3261–3277, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-3261-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-3261-2013, 2013
M. H. Mueller, R. Weingartner, and C. Alewell
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 1661–1679, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-1661-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-1661-2013, 2013
N. Köplin, B. Schädler, D. Viviroli, and R. Weingartner
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 619–635, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-619-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-619-2013, 2013
Related subject area
Hydrological Hazards
Does a convection-permitting regional climate model bring new perspectives on the projection of Mediterranean floods?
Added value of seasonal hindcasts to create UK hydrological drought storylines
Flash flood detection via copula-based intensity–duration–frequency curves: evidence from Jamaica
Seasonal forecasting of local-scale soil moisture droughts with Global BROOK90: a case study of the European drought of 2018
How to mitigate flood events similar to the 1979 catastrophic floods in the lower Tagus
Assessing LISFLOOD-FP with the next-generation digital elevation model FABDEM using household survey and remote sensing data in the Central Highlands of Vietnam
CRHyME (Climatic Rainfall Hydrogeological Modelling Experiment): a new model for geo-hydrological hazard assessment at the basin scale
Current and future rainfall-driven flood risk from hurricanes in Puerto Rico under 1.5 and 2 °C climate change
Using integrated hydrological–hydraulic modelling and global data sources to analyse the February 2023 floods in the Umbeluzi Catchment (Mozambique)
Impact-based flood forecasting in the Greater Horn of Africa
Compound droughts under climate change in Switzerland
Text-mining uncovers the unique dynamics of socio-economic impacts during multi-year drought
Brief communication: A first hydrological investigation of extreme August 2023 floods in Slovenia, Europe
Multivariate regression trees as an “explainable machine learning” approach to explore relationships between hydroclimatic characteristics and agricultural and hydrological drought severity: case of study Cesar River basin
Limited effect of the confluence angle and tributary gradient on Alpine confluence morphodynamics under intense sediment loads
Review article: Towards improved drought prediction in the Mediterranean region – modeling approaches and future directions
Assessing typhoon-induced compound flood drivers: a case study in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
The value of ultra-detailed survey data for an improved flood damage modelling with explicit input data uncertainty treatment: INSYDE 2.0
Assessing the ability of a new seamless short-range ensemble rainfall product to anticipate flash floods in the French Mediterranean area
Sentinel-1-based analysis of the severe flood over Pakistan 2022
Sensitivity analysis of erosion on the landward slope of an earthen flood defense located in southern France submitted to wave overtopping
Brief communication: SWM: Stochastic Weather Model for precipitation-related hazard assessments
Better prepared but less resilient: the paradoxical impact of frequent flood experience on adaptive behavior and resilience
Assessing the spatial spread–skill of ensemble flood maps with remote-sensing observations
An integrated modeling approach to evaluate the impacts of nature-based solutions of flood mitigation across a small watershed in the southeast United States
Indicator-to-impact links to help improve agricultural drought preparedness in Thailand
The potential of open-access data for flood estimations: uncovering inundation hotspots in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam, through a normalized flood severity index
Analyzing the informative value of alternative hazard indicators for monitoring drought hazard for human water supply and river ecosystems at the global scale
A methodological framework for the evaluation of short-range flash-flood hydrometeorological forecasts at the event scale
Hydrological drought forecasting under a changing environment in the Luanhe River basin
A multi-disciplinary analysis of the exceptional flood event of July 2021 in central Europe – Part 2: Historical context and relation to climate change
Brief communication: The potential use of low-cost acoustic sensors to detect rainfall for short-term urban flood warnings
Brief communication: On the extremeness of the July 2021 precipitation event in western Germany
A climate-conditioned catastrophe risk model for UK flooding
A globally applicable framework for compound flood hazard modeling
Transferability of data-driven models to predict urban pluvial flood water depth in Berlin, Germany
Brief communication: Inclusiveness in designing an early warning system for flood resilience
Evolution of multivariate drought hazard, vulnerability and risk in India under climate change
A multi-disciplinary analysis of the exceptional flood event of July 2021 in central Europe – Part 1: Event description and analysis
Bare-earth DEM generation from ArcticDEM and its use in flood simulation
Comparison of estimated flood exposure and consequences generated by different event-based inland flood inundation maps
How uncertain are precipitation and peak flow estimates for the July 2021 flooding event?
Estimating the likelihood of roadway pluvial flood based on crowdsourced traffic data and depression-based DEM analysis
A multi-strategy-mode waterlogging-prediction framework for urban flood depth
Multiscale flood risk assessment under climate change: the case of the Miño River in the city of Ourense, Spain
Interactions between precipitation, evapotranspiration and soil-moisture-based indices to characterize drought with high-resolution remote sensing and land-surface model data
Rare flood scenarios for a rapidly growing high-mountain city: Pokhara, Nepal
Brief communication: Impact forecasting could substantially improve the emergency management of deadly floods: case study July 2021 floods in Germany
Brief communication: Western Europe flood in 2021 – mapping agriculture flood exposure from synthetic aperture radar (SAR)
A new index to quantify the extremeness of precipitation across scales
Nils Poncet, Philippe Lucas-Picher, Yves Tramblay, Guillaume Thirel, Humberto Vergara, Jonathan Gourley, and Antoinette Alias
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1163–1183, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1163-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1163-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
High-resolution convection-permitting climate models (CPMs) are now available to better simulate rainstorm events leading to flash floods. In this study, two hydrological models are compared to simulate floods in a Mediterranean basin, showing a better ability of the CPM to reproduce flood peaks compared to coarser-resolution climate models. Future projections are also different, with a projected increase for the most severe floods and a potential decrease for the most frequent events.
Wilson C. H. Chan, Nigel W. Arnell, Geoff Darch, Katie Facer-Childs, Theodore G. Shepherd, and Maliko Tanguy
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1065–1078, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1065-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1065-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The most recent drought in the UK was declared in summer 2022. We pooled a large sample of plausible winters from seasonal hindcasts and grouped them into four clusters based on their atmospheric circulation configurations. Drought storylines representative of what the drought could have looked like if winter 2022/23 resembled each winter circulation storyline were created to explore counterfactuals of how bad the 2022 drought could have been over winter 2022/23 and beyond.
Dino Collalti, Nekeisha Spencer, and Eric Strobl
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 873–890, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-873-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-873-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The risk of extreme rainfall events causing floods is likely increasing with climate change. Flash floods, which follow immediately after extreme rainfall, are particularly difficult to forecast and assess. We develop a decision rule for flash flood classification with data on all incidents between 2001 and 2018 in Jamaica with the statistical copula method. This decision rule tells us for any rainfall event of a certain duration how intense it has to be to likely trigger a flash flood.
Ivan Vorobevskii, Thi Thanh Luong, and Rico Kronenberg
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 681–697, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-681-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-681-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study presents a new version of a framework which allows us to model water balance components at any site on a local scale. Compared with the first version, the second incorporates new datasets used to set up and force the model. In particular, we highlight the ability of the framework to provide seasonal forecasts. This gives potential stakeholders (farmers, foresters, policymakers, etc.) the possibility to forecast, for example, soil moisture drought and thus apply the necessary measures.
Diego Fernández-Nóvoa, Alexandre M. Ramos, José González-Cao, Orlando García-Feal, Cristina Catita, Moncho Gómez-Gesteira, and Ricardo M. Trigo
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 609–630, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-609-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-609-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The present study focuses on an in-depth analysis of floods in the lower section of the Tagus River from a hydrodynamic perspective by means of the Iber+ numerical model and on the development of dam operating strategies to mitigate flood episodes using the exceptional floods of February 1979 as a benchmark. The results corroborate the model's capability to evaluate floods in the study area and confirm the effectiveness of the proposed strategies to reduce flood impact in the lower Tagus valley.
Laurence Hawker, Jeffrey Neal, James Savage, Thomas Kirkpatrick, Rachel Lord, Yanos Zylberberg, Andre Groeger, Truong Dang Thuy, Sean Fox, Felix Agyemang, and Pham Khanh Nam
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 539–566, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-539-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-539-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We present a global flood model built using a new terrain data set and evaluated in the Central Highlands of Vietnam.
Andrea Abbate, Leonardo Mancusi, Francesco Apadula, Antonella Frigerio, Monica Papini, and Laura Longoni
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 501–537, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-501-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-501-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
CRHyME (Climatic Rainfall Hydrogeological Modelling Experiment) is a new physically based and spatially distributed rainfall-runoff model. The main novelties consist of reproducing rainfall-induced geo-hydrological hazards such as shallow landslide, debris flow and watershed erosion through a multi-hazard approach. CRHyME was written in Python, works at a high spatial and temporal resolution, and is a tool suitable for quantifying extreme rainfall consequences at the basin scale.
Leanne Archer, Jeffrey Neal, Paul Bates, Emily Vosper, Dereka Carroll, Jeison Sosa, and Daniel Mitchell
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 375–396, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-375-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-375-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We model hurricane-rainfall-driven flooding to assess how the number of people exposed to flooding changes in Puerto Rico under the 1.5 and 2 °C Paris Agreement goals. Our analysis suggests 8 %–10 % of the population is currently exposed to flooding on average every 5 years, increasing by 2 %–15 % and 1 %–20 % at 1.5 and 2 °C. This has implications for adaptation to more extreme flooding in Puerto Rico and demonstrates that 1.5 °C climate change carries a significant increase in risk.
Luis Cea, Manuel Álvarez, and Jerónimo Puertas
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 225–243, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-225-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-225-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Mozambique is highly exposed to the impact of floods. To reduce flood damage, it is necessary to develop mitigation measures. Hydrological software is a very useful tool for that purpose, since it allows for a precise quantification of flood hazard in different scenarios. We present a methodology to quantify flood hazard in data-scarce regions, using freely available data and software, and we show its potential by analysing the flood event that took place in the Umbeluzi Basin in February 2023.
Lorenzo Alfieri, Andrea Libertino, Lorenzo Campo, Francesco Dottori, Simone Gabellani, Tatiana Ghizzoni, Alessandro Masoero, Lauro Rossi, Roberto Rudari, Nicola Testa, Eva Trasforini, Ahmed Amdihun, Jully Ouma, Luca Rossi, Yves Tramblay, Huan Wu, and Marco Massabò
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 199–224, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-199-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-199-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This work describes Flood-PROOFS East Africa, an impact-based flood forecasting system for the Greater Horn of Africa. It is based on hydrological simulations, inundation mapping, and estimation of population and assets exposed to upcoming river floods. The system supports duty officers in African institutions in the daily monitoring of hydro-meteorological disasters. A first evaluation shows the system performance for the catastrophic floods in the Nile River basin in summer 2020.
Christoph Nathanael von Matt, Regula Mülchi, Lukas Gudmundsson, and Olivia Martius
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-6, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-6, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
The simultaneous occurrence of meteorological (precipitation), agricultural (soil moisture) and hydrological (streamflow) drought can lead to augmented impacts. By analysing drought indices derived from newest climate scenarios for Switzerland (CH2018, Hydro-CH2018), we show that with climate change the concurrence of all drought types will increase in all investigated regions of Switzerland. Our results highlight the benefits and need of both mitigation and adaptation measures at early stages.
Jan Sodoge, Christian Kuhlicke, Miguel D. Mahecha, and Mariana Madruga de Brito
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-228, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-228, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
We delved into the socio-economic impacts of the 2018–2022 drought in Germany. We derived a dataset covering the impacts of droughts in Germany between 2000 and 2022 on sectors such as agriculture and forestry based on newspaper articles. Notably, our study illustrated that the longer drought had a wider reach and more varied effects . We show that dealing with longer droughts requires different plans compared to shorter ones, and it's crucial to be ready for the challenges they bring.
Nejc Bezak, Panos Panagos, Leonidas Liakos, and Matjaž Mikoš
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3885–3893, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3885-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3885-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Extreme flooding occurred in Slovenia in August 2023. This brief communication examines the main causes, mechanisms and effects of this event. The flood disaster of August 2023 can be described as relatively extreme and was probably the most extreme flood event in Slovenia in recent decades. The economic damage was large and could amount to well over 5 % of Slovenia's annual gross domestic product; the event also claimed three lives.
Ana Paez-Trujilo, Jeffer Cañon, Beatriz Hernandez, Gerald Corzo, and Dimitri Solomatine
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3863–3883, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3863-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3863-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This study uses a machine learning technique, the multivariate regression tree approach, to assess the hydroclimatic characteristics that govern agricultural and hydrological drought severity. The results show that the employed technique successfully identified the primary drivers of droughts and their critical thresholds. In addition, it provides relevant information to identify the areas most vulnerable to droughts and design strategies and interventions for drought management.
Theo St. Pierre Ostrander, Thomé Kraus, Bruno Mazzorana, Johannes Holzner, Andrea Andreoli, Francesco Comiti, and Bernhard Gems
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2432, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2432, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Mountain river confluences are hazardous during localized flooding events. Results from a physical model were used to determine the dominant controls over mountain confluences. Contrary to lowland confluences, in mountain regions, the channel discharges and then the tributary sediment concentration controls morphological patterns. Applying conclusions drawn from lowland confluences could misrepresent depositional and erosional patterns and the related flood hazard at mountain river confluences.
Bouchra Zellou, Nabil El Moçayd, and El Houcine Bergou
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3543–3583, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3543-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3543-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, we underscore the critical importance of strengthening drought prediction capabilities in the Mediterranean region. We present an in-depth evaluation of current drought forecasting approaches, encompassing statistical, dynamical, and hybrid statistical–dynamical models, and highlight unexplored research opportunities. Additionally, we suggest viable directions to enhance drought prediction and early warning systems within the area.
Francisco Rodrigues do Amaral, Nicolas Gratiot, Thierry Pellarin, and Tran Anh Tu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3379–3405, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3379-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3379-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We propose an in-depth analysis of typhoon-induced compound flood drivers in the megacity of Ho Chi Minh, Vietnam. We use in situ and satellite measurements throughout the event to form a holistic overview of its impact. No evidence of storm surge was found, and peak precipitation presents a 16 h time lag to peak river discharge, which evacuates only 1.5 % of available water. The astronomical tide controls the river level even during the extreme event, and it is the main urban flood driver.
Mario Di Bacco, Daniela Molinari, and Anna Rita Scorzini
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-179, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-179, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
INSYDE 2.0, a tool for flood damage modelling to residential buildings. By incorporating ultra-detailed survey and desk-based data, it improves the reliability and informativeness of damage assessments while addressing input data uncertainties.
Juliette Godet, Olivier Payrastre, Pierre Javelle, and François Bouttier
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3355–3377, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3355-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3355-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This article results from a master's research project which was part of a natural hazards programme developed by the French Ministry of Ecological Transition. The objective of this work was to investigate a possible way to improve the operational flash flood warning service by adding rainfall forecasts upstream of the forecasting chain. The results showed that the tested forecast product, which is new and experimental, has a real added value compared to other classical forecast products.
Florian Roth, Bernhard Bauer-Marschallinger, Mark Edwin Tupas, Christoph Reimer, Peter Salamon, and Wolfgang Wagner
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3305–3317, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3305-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3305-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In August and September 2022, millions of people were impacted by a severe flood event in Pakistan. Since many roads and other infrastructure were destroyed, satellite data were the only way of providing large-scale information on the flood's impact. Based on the flood mapping algorithm developed at Technische Universität Wien (TU Wien), we mapped an area of 30 492 km2 that was flooded at least once during the study's time period. This affected area matches about the total area of Belgium.
Clément Houdard, Adrien Poupardin, Philippe Sergent, Abdelkrim Bennabi, and Jena Jeong
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3111–3124, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3111-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3111-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We developed a system able to to predict, knowing the appropriate characteristics of the flood defense structure and sea state, the return periods of potentially dangerous events as well as a ranking of parameters by order of uncertainty.
The model is a combination of statistical and empirical methods that have been applied to a Mediterranean earthen dike. This shows that the most important characteristics of the dyke are its geometrical features, such as its height and slope angles.
Melody Gwyneth Whitehead and Mark Stephen Bebbington
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-160, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-160, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
Precipitation-driven hazards including floods, landslides, and lahars can be catastrophic and difficult to forecast due to high uncertainty around future weather patterns. This work presents SWM, a stochastic weather model that produces catchment-scale stochastically similar (realistic) rainfall over long time periods at minimal computational cost. These data provide much needed inputs for hazard simulations to support long-term, time- and spatially varying, risk assessments.
Lisa Köhler, Torsten Masson, Sabrina Köhler, and Christian Kuhlicke
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2787–2806, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2787-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2787-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We analyzed the impact of flood experience on adaptive behavior and self-reported resilience. The outcomes draw a paradoxical picture: the most experienced people are the most adapted but the least resilient. We find evidence for non-linear relationships between the number of floods experienced and resilience. We contribute to existing knowledge by focusing specifically on the number of floods experienced and extending the rare scientific literature on the influence of experience on resilience.
Helen Hooker, Sarah L. Dance, David C. Mason, John Bevington, and Kay Shelton
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2769–2785, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2769-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2769-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Ensemble forecasts of flood inundation produce maps indicating the probability of flooding. A new approach is presented to evaluate the spatial performance of an ensemble flood map forecast by comparison against remotely observed flooding extents. This is important for understanding forecast uncertainties and improving flood forecasting systems.
Betina I. Guido, Ioana Popescu, Vidya Samadi, and Biswa Bhattacharya
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2663–2681, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2663-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2663-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We used an integrated model to evaluate the impacts of nature-based solutions (NBSs) on flood mitigation across the Little Pee Dee and Lumber River watershed, the Carolinas, US. This area is strongly affected by climatic disasters, which are expected to increase due to climate change and urbanization, so exploring an NBS approach is crucial for adapting to future alterations. Our research found that NBSs can have visible effects on the reduction in hurricane-driven flooding.
Maliko Tanguy, Michael Eastman, Eugene Magee, Lucy J. Barker, Thomas Chitson, Chaiwat Ekkawatpanit, Daniel Goodwin, Jamie Hannaford, Ian Holman, Liwa Pardthaisong, Simon Parry, Dolores Rey Vicario, and Supattra Visessri
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2419–2441, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2419-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2419-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Droughts in Thailand are becoming more severe due to climate change. Understanding the link between drought impacts on the ground and drought indicators used in drought monitoring systems can help increase a country's preparedness and resilience to drought. With a focus on agricultural droughts, we derive crop- and region-specific indicator-to-impact links that can form the basis of targeted mitigation actions and an improved drought monitoring and early warning system in Thailand.
Leon Scheiber, Mazen Hoballah Jalloul, Christian Jordan, Jan Visscher, Hong Quan Nguyen, and Torsten Schlurmann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2313–2332, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2313-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2313-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Numerical models are increasingly important for assessing urban flooding, yet reliable input data are oftentimes hard to obtain. Taking Ho Chi Minh City as an example, this paper explores the usability and reliability of open-access data to produce preliminary risk maps that provide first insights into potential flooding hotspots. As a key novelty, a normalized flood severity index is presented which combines flood depth and duration to enhance the interpretation of hydro-numerical results.
Claudia Herbert and Petra Döll
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2111–2131, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2111-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2111-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This paper presents a new method for selecting streamflow drought hazard indicators for monitoring drought hazard for human water supply and river ecosystems in large-scale drought early warning systems. Indicators are classified by their inherent assumptions about the habituation of people and ecosystems to the streamflow regime and their level of drought characterization, namely drought magnitude (water deficit at a certain point in time) and severity (cumulated magnitude since drought onset).
Maryse Charpentier-Noyer, Daniela Peredo, Axelle Fleury, Hugo Marchal, François Bouttier, Eric Gaume, Pierre Nicolle, Olivier Payrastre, and Maria-Helena Ramos
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2001–2029, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2001-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2001-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This paper proposes a methodological framework designed for event-based evaluation in the context of an intense flash-flood event. The evaluation adopts the point of view of end users, with a focus on the anticipation of exceedances of discharge thresholds. With a study of rainfall forecasts, a discharge evaluation and a detailed look at the forecast hydrographs, the evaluation framework should help in drawing robust conclusions about the usefulness of new rainfall ensemble forecasts.
Min Li, Mingfeng Zhang, Runxiang Cao, Yidi Sun, and Xiyuan Deng
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1453–1464, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1453-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1453-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
It is an important disaster reduction strategy to forecast hydrological drought. In order to analyse the impact of human activities on hydrological drought, we constructed the human activity factor based on the method of restoration. With the increase of human index (HI) value, hydrological droughts tend to transition to more severe droughts. The conditional distribution model involving of human activity factor can further improve the forecasting accuracy of drought in the Luanhe River basin.
Patrick Ludwig, Florian Ehmele, Mário J. Franca, Susanna Mohr, Alberto Caldas-Alvarez, James E. Daniell, Uwe Ehret, Hendrik Feldmann, Marie Hundhausen, Peter Knippertz, Katharina Küpfer, Michael Kunz, Bernhard Mühr, Joaquim G. Pinto, Julian Quinting, Andreas M. Schäfer, Frank Seidel, and Christina Wisotzky
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1287–1311, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1287-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1287-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Heavy precipitation in July 2021 led to widespread floods in western Germany and neighboring countries. The event was among the five heaviest precipitation events of the past 70 years in Germany, and the river discharges exceeded by far the statistical 100-year return values. Simulations of the event under future climate conditions revealed a strong and non-linear effect on flood peaks: for +2 K global warming, an 18 % increase in rainfall led to a 39 % increase of the flood peak in the Ahr river.
Nadav Peleg, Herminia Torelló-Sentelles, Grégoire Mariéthoz, Lionel Benoit, João P. Leitão, and Francesco Marra
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1233–1240, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1233-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1233-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Floods in urban areas are one of the most common natural hazards. Due to climate change enhancing extreme rainfall and cities becoming larger and denser, the impacts of these events are expected to increase. A fast and reliable flood warning system should thus be implemented in flood-prone cities to warn the public of upcoming floods. The purpose of this brief communication is to discuss the potential implementation of low-cost acoustic rainfall sensors in short-term flood warning systems.
Katharina Lengfeld, Paul Voit, Frank Kaspar, and Maik Heistermann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1227–1232, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1227-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1227-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Estimating the severity of a rainfall event based on the damage caused is easy but highly depends on the affected region. A less biased measure for the extremeness of an event is its rarity combined with its spatial extent. In this brief communication, we investigate the sensitivity of such measures to the underlying dataset and highlight the importance of considering multiple spatial and temporal scales using the devastating rainfall event in July 2021 in central Europe as an example.
Paul D. Bates, James Savage, Oliver Wing, Niall Quinn, Christopher Sampson, Jeffrey Neal, and Andrew Smith
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 891–908, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-891-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-891-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We present and validate a model that simulates current and future flood risk for the UK at high resolution (~ 20–25 m). We show that UK flood losses were ~ 6 % greater in the climate of 2020 compared to recent historical values. The UK can keep any future increase to ~ 8 % if all countries implement their COP26 pledges and net-zero ambitions in full. However, if only the COP26 pledges are fulfilled, then UK flood losses increase by ~ 23 %; and potentially by ~ 37 % in a worst-case scenario.
Dirk Eilander, Anaïs Couasnon, Tim Leijnse, Hiroaki Ikeuchi, Dai Yamazaki, Sanne Muis, Job Dullaart, Arjen Haag, Hessel C. Winsemius, and Philip J. Ward
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 823–846, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-823-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-823-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In coastal deltas, flooding can occur from interactions between coastal, riverine, and pluvial drivers, so-called compound flooding. Global models however ignore these interactions. We present a framework for automated and reproducible compound flood modeling anywhere globally and validate it for two historical events in Mozambique with good results. The analysis reveals differences in compound flood dynamics between both events related to the magnitude of and time lag between drivers.
Omar Seleem, Georgy Ayzel, Axel Bronstert, and Maik Heistermann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 809–822, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-809-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-809-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Data-driven models are becoming more of a surrogate that overcomes the limitations of the computationally expensive 2D hydrodynamic models to map urban flood hazards. However, the model's ability to generalize outside the training domain is still a major challenge. We evaluate the performance of random forest and convolutional neural networks to predict urban floodwater depth and investigate their transferability outside the training domain.
Tahmina Yasmin, Kieran Khamis, Anthony Ross, Subir Sen, Anita Sharma, Debashish Sen, Sumit Sen, Wouter Buytaert, and David M. Hannah
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 667–674, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-667-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-667-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Floods continue to be a wicked problem that require developing early warning systems with plausible assumptions of risk behaviour, with more targeted conversations with the community at risk. Through this paper we advocate the use of a SMART approach to encourage bottom-up initiatives to develop inclusive and purposeful early warning systems that benefit the community at risk by engaging them at every step of the way along with including other stakeholders at multiple scales of operations.
Venkataswamy Sahana and Arpita Mondal
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 623–641, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-623-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-623-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In an agriculture-dependent, densely populated country such as India, drought risk projection is important to assess future water security. This study presents the first comprehensive drought risk assessment over India, integrating hazard and vulnerability information. Future drought risk is found to be more significantly driven by increased vulnerability resulting from societal developments rather than climate-induced changes in hazard. These findings can inform planning for drought resilience.
Susanna Mohr, Uwe Ehret, Michael Kunz, Patrick Ludwig, Alberto Caldas-Alvarez, James E. Daniell, Florian Ehmele, Hendrik Feldmann, Mário J. Franca, Christian Gattke, Marie Hundhausen, Peter Knippertz, Katharina Küpfer, Bernhard Mühr, Joaquim G. Pinto, Julian Quinting, Andreas M. Schäfer, Marc Scheibel, Frank Seidel, and Christina Wisotzky
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 525–551, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-525-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-525-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The flood event in July 2021 was one of the most severe disasters in Europe in the last half century. The objective of this two-part study is a multi-disciplinary assessment that examines the complex process interactions in different compartments, from meteorology to hydrological conditions to hydro-morphological processes to impacts on assets and environment. In addition, we address the question of what measures are possible to generate added value to early response management.
Yinxue Liu, Paul D. Bates, and Jeffery C. Neal
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 375–391, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-375-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-375-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In this paper, we test two approaches for removing buildings and other above-ground objects from a state-of-the-art satellite photogrammetry topography product, ArcticDEM. Our best technique gives a 70 % reduction in vertical error, with an average difference of 1.02 m from a benchmark lidar for the city of Helsinki, Finland. When used in a simulation of rainfall-driven flooding, the bare-earth version of ArcticDEM yields a significant improvement in predicted inundation extent and water depth.
Joseph L. Gutenson, Ahmad A. Tavakoly, Mohammad S. Islam, Oliver E. J. Wing, William P. Lehman, Chase O. Hamilton, Mark D. Wahl, and T. Christopher Massey
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 261–277, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-261-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-261-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Emergency managers use event-based flood inundation maps (FIMs) to plan and coordinate flood emergency response. We perform a case study test of three different FIM frameworks to see if FIM differences lead to substantial differences in the location and magnitude of flood exposure and consequences. We find that the FIMs are very different spatially and that the spatial differences do produce differences in the location and magnitude of exposure and consequences.
Mohamed Saadi, Carina Furusho-Percot, Alexandre Belleflamme, Ju-Yu Chen, Silke Trömel, and Stefan Kollet
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 159–177, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-159-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-159-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
On 14 July 2021, heavy rainfall fell over central Europe, causing considerable damage and human fatalities. We analyzed how accurate our estimates of rainfall and peak flow were for these flooding events in western Germany. We found that the rainfall estimates from radar measurements were improved by including polarimetric variables and their vertical gradients. Peak flow estimates were highly uncertain due to uncertainties in hydrological model parameters and rainfall measurements.
Arefeh Safaei-Moghadam, David Tarboton, and Barbara Minsker
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1–19, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Climate change, urbanization, and aging infrastructure contribute to flooding on roadways. This study evaluates the potential for flood reports collected from Waze – a community-based navigation app – to predict these events. Waze reports correlate primarily with low-lying depressions on roads. Therefore, we developed two data-driven models to determine whether roadways will flood. Analysis showed that in the city of Dallas, drainage area and imperviousness are the most significant contributors.
Zongjia Zhang, Jun Liang, Yujue Zhou, Zhejun Huang, Jie Jiang, Junguo Liu, and Lili Yang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 4139–4165, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-4139-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-4139-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
An innovative multi-strategy-mode waterlogging-prediction framework for predicting waterlogging depth is proposed in the paper. The framework selects eight regression algorithms for comparison and tests the prediction accuracy and robustness of the model under different prediction strategies. Ultimately, the accuracy of predicting water depth after 30 min can exceed 86.1 %. This can aid decision-making in terms of issuing early warning information and determining emergency responses in advance.
Diego Fernández-Nóvoa, Orlando García-Feal, José González-Cao, Maite deCastro, and Moncho Gómez-Gesteira
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3957–3972, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3957-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3957-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
A multiscale analysis, where the historical and future precipitation data from the CORDEX project were used as input in a hydrological model (HEC-HMS) that, in turn, feeds a 2D hydraulic model (Iber+), was applied to the case of the Miño-Sil basin (NW Spain), specifically to Ourense city, in order to analyze future changes in flood hazard. Detailed flood maps indicate an increase in the frequency and intensity of future floods, implying an increase in flood hazard in important areas of the city.
Jaime Gaona, Pere Quintana-Seguí, María José Escorihuela, Aaron Boone, and María Carmen Llasat
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3461–3485, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3461-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3461-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Droughts represent a particularly complex natural hazard and require explorations of their multiple causes. Part of the complexity has roots in the interaction between the continuous changes in and deviation from normal conditions of the atmosphere and the land surface. The exchange between the atmospheric and surface conditions defines feedback towards dry or wet conditions. In semi-arid environments, energy seems to exceed water in its impact over the evolution of conditions, favoring drought.
Melanie Fischer, Jana Brettin, Sigrid Roessner, Ariane Walz, Monique Fort, and Oliver Korup
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3105–3123, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3105-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3105-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Nepal’s second-largest city has been rapidly growing since the 1970s, although its valley has been affected by rare, catastrophic floods in recent and historic times. We analyse potential impacts of such floods on urban areas and infrastructure by modelling 10 physically plausible flood scenarios along Pokhara’s main river. We find that hydraulic effects would largely affect a number of squatter settlements, which have expanded rapidly towards the river by a factor of up to 20 since 2008.
Heiko Apel, Sergiy Vorogushyn, and Bruno Merz
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3005–3014, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3005-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3005-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The paper presents a fast 2D hydraulic simulation model for flood propagation that enables operational forecasts of spatially distributed inundation depths, flood extent, flow velocities, and other flood impacts. The detailed spatial forecast of floods and flood impacts is a large step forward from the currently operational forecasts of discharges at selected gauges, thus enabling a more targeted flood management and early warning.
Kang He, Qing Yang, Xinyi Shen, and Emmanouil N. Anagnostou
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2921–2927, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2921-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2921-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This study depicts the flood-affected areas in western Europe in July 2021 and particularly the agriculture land that was under flood inundation. The results indicate that the total inundated area over western Europe is about 1920 km2, of which 1320 km2 is in France. Around 64 % of the inundated area is agricultural land. We expect that the agricultural productivity in western Europe will have been severely impacted.
Paul Voit and Maik Heistermann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2791–2805, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2791-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2791-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
To better understand how the frequency and intensity of heavy precipitation events (HPEs) will change with changing climate and to adapt disaster risk management accordingly, we have to quantify the extremeness of HPEs in a reliable way. We introduce the xWEI (cross-scale WEI) and show that this index can reveal important characteristics of HPEs that would otherwise remain hidden. We conclude that the xWEI could be a valuable instrument in both disaster risk management and research.
Cited articles
Andres, N., Steeb, N., Badoux, A., and Hegg, C. (Eds.): Grundlagen Extremhochwasser Aare: Hauptbericht Projekt EXAR, Methodik und Resultate,
WSL Berichte 104, WSL, Birmensdorf, https://www.wsl.ch/de/projekte/exar-1.html (last access: 12 August 2022), 2021.
Arnaud, P. and Lavabre, J.: Using a stochastic model for generating hourly
hyetographs to study extreme rainfalls, Hydrolog. Sci. J., 44, 433–446,
https://doi.org/10.1080/02626669909492238, 1999.
Arnaud, P. and Lavabre, J.: Coupled rainfall model and discharge model for
flood frequency estimation, Water Resour. Res., 38, 1075, https://doi.org/10.1029/2001WR000474, 2002.
Arnaud, P., Cantet, P., and Odry, J.: Uncertainties of flood frequency estimation approaches based on continuous simulation using data resampling,
J. Hydrol., 554, 360–369, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2017.09.011, 2017.
Asadi, P., Engelke, S., and Davison, A. C.: Optimal regionalization of extreme value distributions for flood estimation, J. Hydrol., 556, 182–193,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2017.10.051, 2018.
Aubert, Y., Arnaud, P., Ribstein, P., and Fine, J.-A.: La méthode SHYREG
débit – application sur 1605 bassins versants en France métropolitaine, Hydrolog. Sci. J., 59, 993–1005,
https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2014.902061, 2014.
Baer, P. and Schwab, S.: Extremhochwasser an der Aare: Detailbericht B Projekt EXAR, Historische Hochwasser, ARGE GEOTEST-HZP-IUB, Zollikofen, https://www.wsl.ch/de/projekte/exar-1.html (last access: 12 August 2022), 2020.
Baker, V. R.: Paleoflood hydrology: Origin, progress, prospects, Geomorphology, 101, 1–13, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geomorph.2008.05.016, 2008.
Baker, V. R., Webb, R. H., and House, P. K.: The Scientific and Societal
Value of Paleoflood Hydrology, in: Ancient floods, modern hazards: Principles and applications of paleoflood hydrology, edited by: House, P. K., American Geophysical Union, Washington, DC, 1–19, https://doi.org/10.1029/WS005p0001, 2010.
Barth, N. A., Villarini, G., and White, K.: Accounting for Mixed Populations
in Flood Frequency Analysis: Bulletin 17C Perspective, J. Hydrol. Eng., 24,
04019002, https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)HE.1943-5584.0001762, 2019.
Basso, S., Schirmer, M., and Botter, G.: On the emergence of heavy-tailed
streamflow distributions, Adv. Water Resour., 82, 98–105,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.advwatres.2015.04.013, 2015.
Basso, S., Schirmer, M., and Botter, G.: A physically based analytical model
of flood frequency curves, Geophys. Res. Lett., 43, 9070–9076,
https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL069915, 2016.
Basso, S., Botter, G., Merz, R., and Miniussi, A.: PHEV! The PHysically-based Extreme Value distribution of river flows, Environ. Res. Lett., 16, 124065, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac3d59, 2021.
Baumgartner, E., Boldi, M.-O., Kan, C., and Schick, S.: Hochwasserstatistik
am BAFU – Diskussion eines neuen Methodensets, Wasser Energie Luft, 105,
103–110, 2013.
Bayliss, A. C. and Reed, D. W.: The use of historical data in flood frequency estimation, Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Wallingford, Oxfordshire, UK, 92 pp., https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/8060/1/BaylissRepN008060CR.pdf (last access: 12 August 2022), 2001.
Ben Alaya, M. A., Zwiers, F., and Zhang, X.: Probable Maximum Precipitation:
Its Estimation and Uncertainty Quantification Using Bivariate Extreme Value
Analysis, J. Hydrometeorl., 19, 679–694, https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-17-0110.1, 2018.
Benito, G. and O'Connor, J. E.: Quantitative Paleoflood Hydrology, in:
Treatise on geomorphology, edited by: Shroder, J. F., Academic Press, London, Waltham, MA, 459–474, https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-12-374739-6.00250-5, 2013.
Benito, G. and Thorndycraft, V. R.: Palaeoflood hydrology and its role in
applied hydrological sciences, J. Hydrol., 313, 3–15, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2005.02.002, 2005.
Benito, G., Brázdil, R., Herget, J., and Machado, M. J.: Quantitative
historical hydrology in Europe, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 3517–3539,
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-3517-2015, 2015.
Bergström, S.: Utveckling och tillämpning av en digital avrinningsmodell, SMHI Notiser och preliminära rapporter, serie
HYDROLOGI 22, SMHI, Norrköping, https://www.smhi.se/polopoly_fs/1.83595!/Menu/general/extGroup/attachmentColHold/mainCol1/file/Notiser_prel_rapporter_hydrologi_22.pdf (last access: 12 August 2022), 1972.
Bergström, S.: The HBV Model – its structure and applications, Reports
Hydrology 4, Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI)/Sveriges Meteorologiska och Hydrologiska Institut (SMHI), Norrköping, https://www.smhi.se/polopoly_fs/1.83592!/Menu/general/extGroup/attachmentColHold/mainCol1/file/RH_4.pdf (last access: 12 August 2022), 1992.
Beven, K.: Towards the use of catchment geomorphology in flood frequency
predictions, Earth Surf. Proc. Land., 12, 69–82, https://doi.org/10.1002/esp.3290120109, 1987.
Beven, K. J.: Rainfall-Runoff Modelling: The Primer, 2nd Edn. Wiley, Chichester, ISBN 978-0-470-71459-1, 2011.
Botter, G., Porporato, A., Rodriguez-Iturbe, I., and Rinaldo, A.: Basin-scale soil moisture dynamics and the probabilistic characterization of carrier hydrologic flows: Slow, leaching-prone components of the hydrologic response, Water Resour. Res., 43, W02417, https://doi.org/10.1029/2006WR005043, 2007.
Botter, G., Porporato, A., Rodriguez-Iturbe, I., and Rinaldo, A.: Nonlinear
storage-discharge relations and catchment streamflow regimes, Water Resour.
Res., 45, W10427, https://doi.org/10.1029/2008WR007658, 2009.
Breinl, K. and Di Baldassarre, G.: Space-time disaggregation of precipitation and temperature across different climates and spatial scales,
J. Hydrol.: Reg. Stud., 21, 126–146, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2018.12.002, 2019.
Brunner, M. I., Viviroli, D., Sikorska, A. E., Vannier, O., Favre, A.-C., and Seibert, J.: Flood type specific construction of synthetic design hydrographs, Water Resour. Res., 53, 1390–1406, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016WR019535, 2017.
Buishand, T. A. and Brandsma, T.: Multisite simulation of daily precipitation and temperature in the Rhine Basin by nearest-neighbor resampling, Water Resour. Res., 37, 2761–2776, https://doi.org/10.1029/2001WR000291, 2001.
Bundesamt für Energie: Richtlinie über die Sicherheit der
Stauanlagen: Teil C2: Hochwassersicherheit und Stauseeabsenkung, Richtlinie
über die Sicherheit der Stauanlagen, 32 pp., https://www.bfe.admin.ch/bfe/de/home/versorgung/aufsicht-und-sicherheit/talsperren/richtlinien-und-hilfsmittel.exturl.html/aHR0cHM6Ly9wdWJkYi5iZmUuYW (last access: 12 August 2022), 2018.
Bundesamt für Umwelt: Stationsbericht Hochwasserstatistik Aare –
Untersiggenthal, Stilli, https://www.hydrodaten.admin.ch/lhg/sdi/hq_studien/hq_statistics/2205_hq_Bericht.pdf (last access: 12 August 2022), 2020.
Bundesministerium für Land- und Forstwirtschaft, Umwelt und Wasserwirtschaft and Technische Universität Wien: Leitfaden zum Nachweis
der Hochwassersicherheit von Talsperren, Wien, 107 pp., https://info.bml.gv.at/dam/jcr:4fd43e9f-c845-475e-ba34-62b4b25e9c60/Leitfaden_zum_Nachweis_der_Hochwassersicherheit_von_Talsperren_12_09.pdf (last access: 12 August 2022), 2009.
Burn, D. H.: Catchment similarity for regional flood frequency analysis using seasonality measures, J. Hydrol., 202, 212–230, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0022-1694(97)00068-1, 1997.
Calver, A. and Lamb, R.: Flood frequency estimation using continuous rainfall-runoff modelling, Phys. Chem. Earth, 20, 479–483,
https://doi.org/10.1016/S0079-1946(96)00010-9, 1995.
Castellarin, A., Vogel, R. M., and Matalas, N. C.: Probabilistic behavior of
a regional envelope curve, Water Resour. Res., 41, W06018, https://doi.org/10.1029/2004WR003042, 2005.
Castellarin, A., Kohnová, S., Gaál, L., Fleig, A., Salinas, J. L.,
Toumazis, A., Kjeldsen, T. R., and Macdonald, N.: Review of Applied European
Flood Frequency Analysis Methods, COST Action ES0901, WG2, Wallingford,
Oxfordshire, UK, 130 pp., ISBN 978-1-906698-32-4, 2012.
Chardon, J., Hingray, B., Favre, A.-C., Autin, P., Gailhard, J., Zin, I.,
and Obled, C.: Spatial Similarity and Transferability of Analog Dates for
Precipitation Downscaling over France, J. Climate, 27, 5056–5074,
https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00464.1, 2014.
Chardon, J., Favre, A.-C., and Hingray, B.: Effects of Spatial Aggregation
on the Accuracy of Statistically Downscaled Precipitation Predictions, J.
Hydrometeorl., 17, 1561–1578, https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-15-0031.1, 2016.
Chardon, J., Hingray, B., and Favre, A.-C.: An adaptive two-stage analog/regression model for probabilistic prediction of small-scale precipitation in France, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 265–286,
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-265-2018, 2018.
Chardon, J., Evin, G., Favre, A.-C., Hingray, B., Nicolet, G., and Raynaud,
D.: Weather Generators: GWEX and SCAMP, in: Extremhochwasser an der Aare:
Detailbericht A Projekt EXAR, Hydrometeorologische Grundlagen, edited by:
Staudinger, M. and Viviroli, D., University of Zurich, Zurich, 7–22,
https://doi.org/10.5167/uzh-201388, 2020.
Chebana, F., Dabo-Niang, S., and Ouarda, T. B. M. J.: Exploratory functional
flood frequency analysis and outlier detection, Water Resour. Res., 48, W04514, https://doi.org/10.1029/2011WR011040, 2012.
Dang, V. and Whealton, C.: Extremhochwasser an der Aare: Detailbericht G Projekt EXAR, Ereignisbaumanalyse und Gefährdungskurven, Paul Scherrer
Institut, Villigen, https://www.wsl.ch/de/projekte/exar-1.html (last access: 12 August 2022), 2020.
Deutsche Vereinigung für Wasserwirtschaft, Abwasser und Abfall: Ermittlung von Hochwasserwahrscheinlichkeiten: DWA-Regelwerk, Merkblatt
DWA-M 552, Hennef, 90 pp., ISBN 978-3-942964-25-8, 2012.
Diezig, R. and Weingartner, R.: Hochwasserprozesstypen – Schlüssel zur
Hochwasserabschätzung, Wasser Abfall, 9, 18–26, https://doi.org/10.1007/BF03247473, 2007.
Eidgenössisches Amt für Strassen- und Flussbau: Die grössten bis
zum Jahre 1969 beobachteten Abflussmengen von schweizerischen Gewässern:
Beitrag zum internationalen hydrologischen Dezennium 1965–1974, EDMZ, Bern,
http://permalink.snl.ch/bib/sz000413758 (last access: 29 August 2022), 1974.
England Jr., J. F., Cohn, T. A., Faber, B. A., Stedinger, J. R., Thomas Jr., W. O., Veilleux, A. G., Kiang, J. E., and Mason Jr., R. R.: Guidelines for Determining Flood Flow Frequency: Bulletin 17C, Version 1.1, May 2019,
US Geological Survey Techniques and Methods, Book 4, chap. 5b, US Geoglogical Survey, 168 pp., https://doi.org/10.3133/tm4B5, 2019.
Environment Agency: Flood Estimation Guidelines, Technical guidance 197_08,
129 pp., https://www.jbaconsulting.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/Flood-Estimation-Guidelines-2020-197_08.pdf (last access: 12 August 2022), 2020.
Evin, G., Blanchet, J., Paquet, E., Garavaglia, F., and Penot, D.: A
regional model for extreme rainfall based on weather patterns subsampling,
J. Hydrol., 541, 1185–1198, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2016.08.024, 2016.
Evin, G., Favre, A.-C., and Hingray, B.: Stochastic generation of multi-site
daily precipitation focusing on extreme events, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 655–672, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-655-2018, 2018.
Evin, G., Favre, A.-C., and Hingray, B.: Stochastic generators of multi-site
daily temperature: comparison of performances in various applications, Theor. Appl. Climatol., 135, 811–824, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-018-2404-x, 2019.
Fallot, J.-M., Hertig, J.-A., Receanu, R. G., and Zeimetz, F.:
Détermination des précipitations et des crues extrêmes en suisse
à l'aide de la méthode PMP-PMF, Bulletin de la Société
Géographique de Liège, 68, 77–96, https://doi.org/10.25518/0770-7576.4556, 2017.
Falter, D., Schröter, K., Dung, N. V., Vorogushyn, S., Kreibich, H.,
Hundecha, Y., Apel, H., and Merz, B.: Spatially coherent flood risk assessment based on long-term continuous simulation with a coupled model chain, J. Hydrol., 524, 182–193, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2015.02.021, 2015.
Farinotti, D., Usselmann, S., Huss, M., Bauder, A., and Funk, M.: Runoff
evolution in the Swiss Alps: projections for selected high-alpine catchments based on ENSEMBLES scenarios, Hydrol. Process., 26, 1909–1924,
https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.8276, 2012.
Federal Office for the Environment: Hydrological time series,
https://www.hydrodaten.admin.ch, last access: 30 June 2016.
Federal Office for the Environment: The 5 flood danger levels,
https://www.hydrodaten.admin.ch/en/the-5-flood-danger-levels.html, last
access: 22 June 2022.
Felder, G. and Weingartner, R.: An approach for the determination of
precipitation input for worst-case flood modelling, Hydrolog. Sci. J., 61,
2600–2609, https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2016.1151980, 2016.
Felder, G. and Weingartner, R.: Assessment of deterministic PMF modelling
approaches, Hydrolog. Sci. J., 62, 1591–1602, https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2017.1319065, 2017.
Felder, G., Paquet, E., Penot, D., Zischg, A., and Weingartner, R.: Consistency of Extreme Flood Estimation Approaches, J. Hydrol. Eng., 24,
4019018, https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)HE.1943-5584.0001797, 2019.
Fernandez, C. and Steel, M. F. J.: On Bayesian Modeling of Fat Tails and
Skewness, J. Am. Stat. Assoc., 93, 359–371, https://doi.org/10.2307/2669632, 1998.
Fischer, S.: A seasonal mixed-POT model to estimate high flood quantiles
from different event types and seasons, J. Appl. Stat., 45, 2831–2847, https://doi.org/10.1080/02664763.2018.1441385, 2018.
García Hernández, J., Foehn, A., Fluixá-Sanmartín, J., Roquier, B., Brauchli, T., Paredes Arquiola, J., and De Cesare, G. RS MINERVE –Technical manual, v2.25, CREALP, Sion, 156 pp., https://crealp.ch/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/rsminerve_technical_manual_v2.25.pdf (last access: 12 August 2022), 2020.
Girons Lopez, M., Wennerström, H., Nordén, L.-Å., and Seibert, J.: Location and Density of Rain Gauges for the Estimation of Spatial
Varying Precipitation, Geograf. Ann. A, 97, 167–179, https://doi.org/10.1111/geoa.12094, 2015.
Grimaldi, S., Petroselli, A., Arcangeletti, E., and Nardi, F.: Flood mapping
in ungauged basins using fully continuous hydrologic–hydraulic modeling, J.
Hydrol., 487, 39–47, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2013.02.023, 2013.
Gringorten, I. I.: A plotting rule for extreme probability paper, Global
Biogeochem. Cy., 68, 813–814, https://doi.org/10.1029/JZ068i003p00813, 1963.
Guillot, P. and Duband, D.: La méthode du gradex pour le calcul de la
probabilité des crues à partir des pluies, in: Floods and their
Computation: Proceedings of the Leningrad Symposium, August 1967, Vol. I,
edited by: International Association of Hydrological Sciences and World
Meteorological Organization, Gentbrugge, Paris, 560–569, https://unesdoc.unesco.org/ark:/48223/pf0000014318 (last access: 12 August 2022), 1969.
Gupta, H. V., Kling, H., Yilmaz, K. K., and Martínez, G. F.: Decomposition of the mean squared error and NSE performance criteria:
Implications for improving hydrological modelling, J. Hydrol., 377, 80–91,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2009.08.003, 2009.
Guse, B., Merz, B., Wietzke, L., Ullrich, S., Viglione, A., and Vorogushyn,
S.: The role of flood wave superposition in the severity of large floods,
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1633–1648, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-1633-2020, 2020.
Gutknecht, D., Blöschl, G., Reszler, C., and Heindl, H.: Ein “Mehr-Standbeine”-Ansatz zur Ermittlung von Bemessungshochwässern
kleiner Auftretenswahrscheinlichkeit, Österr Wasser- und Abfallw., 58,
44–50, 2006.
Hall, J., Arheimer, B., Borga, M., Brázdil, R., Claps, P., Kiss, A.,
Kjeldsen, T. R., Kriaučiūnienė, J., Kundzewicz, Z. W., Lang, M.,
Llasat, M. C., Macdonald, N., McIntyre, N., Mediero, L., Merz, B., Merz, R.,
Molnar, P., Montanari, A., Neuhold, C., Parajka, J., Perdigão, R. A.,
Plavcová, L., Rogger, M., Salinas, J. L., Sauquet, E., Schär, C.,
Szolgay, J., Viglione, A., and Blöschl, G.: Understanding flood regime
changes in Europe: a state-of-the-art assessment, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.,
18, 2735–2772, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-2735-2014, 2014.
Hegnauer, M., Beersma, J. J., van den Boogaard, H. F. P., Buishand, T. A.,
and Passchier, R. H.: Generator of Rainfall and Discharge Extremes (GRADE)
for the Rhine and Meuse basins: Final report of GRADE 2.0, Deltares and
KNMI, 84 pp., https://publications.deltares.nl/1209424_004_0018.pdf (last access: 12 August 2022), 2014.
Herschy, R. W.: The world's maximum observed floods, Flow Meas. Instrum., 13, 231–235, 2002.
Horton, P., Schaefli, B., and Kauzlaric, M.: Why do we have so many different hydrological models? A review based on the case of Switzerland, WIREs Water, 9, e1574, https://doi.org/10.1002/wat2.1574, 2022.
Hosking, J. R. M. and Wallis, J. R.: Some useful statistics in regional frequency analysis, Water Resour. Res., 29, 271–281, 1993.
Hosking, J. R. M. and Wallis, J. R.: Regional frequency analysis: An approach based on L-moments, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 224 pp.,
https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511529443, 1997.
Hügli, A.: Aarewasser: 500 Jahre Hochwasserschutz zwischen Thun und Bern, ott Verlag, Bern, 175 pp., ISBN 978-3-7225-0083-6, 2007.
International Commission on Large Dams: Flood Evaluation and Dam Safety, in:
1st Edn., Bulletin (International Commission on Large Dams), 170, CRC Press, Boca Raton, FL, 360 pp., ISBN 9781138492134, 2018.
Isotta, F. A., Frei, C., Weilguni, V., Perčec Tadić, M., Lassègues, P., Rudolf, B., Pavan, V., Cacciamani, C., Antolini, G.,
Ratto, S. M., Munari, M., Micheletti, S., Bonati, V., Lussana, C., Ronchi,
C., Panettieri, E., Marigo, G., and Vertačnik, G.: The climate of daily
precipitation in the Alps: development and analysis of a high-resolution
grid dataset from pan-Alpine rain-gauge data, Int. J. Climatol., 34, 1657–1675, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.3794, 2014.
Kauzlaric, M., Keller, L., Pfäffli, M., Senoner, A., Staudinger, M., and
Viviroli, D.: Sensitivity and plausibility of hydrological simulations, in:
Extremhochwasser an der Aare: Detailbericht A Projekt EXAR,
Hydrometeorologische Grundlagen, edited by: Staudinger, M. and Viviroli, D.,
Univertisy of Zurich, Zurich, 22–95, https://doi.org/10.5167/uzh-201388, 2020.
Kauzlaric, M., Nicolet, G., and Viviroli, D.: Entwicklung hydrometeorologischer Grundlagen, in: Grundlagen Extremhochwasser Aare:
Hauptbericht Projekt EXAR, Methodik und Resultate, edited by: Andres, N.,
Steeb, N., Badoux, A., and Hegg, C., University of Zurich, Birmensdorf, 29–37, https://doi.org/10.5167/uzh-203528, 2021.
Kavetski, D., Kuczera, G., and Franks, S. W.: Bayesian analysis of input
uncertainty in hydrological modeling: 2. Application, Water Resour. Res.,
42, W03408, 2006.
Kienzler, P. M. and Scherrer, S.: Verzeichnis grosser Hochwasserabflüsse
in Schweizerischen Einzugsgebieten: Auswertung und graphische Aufbereitung,
Reinach, Bericht 17/229, https://www.bafu.admin.ch/dam/bafu/de/dokumente/hydrologie/geodaten/Scherrer-AG-def-Bericht_ASF_update_graphischeDarstellung_2018-03-09_original.pdf.download.pdf/Scherrer-AG-def-Bericht_ASF_update_graphischeDarstellung_2018-03-09_original.pdf (last access: 12 August 2022), 2018.
Kienzler, P. M., Andres, N., Näf-Huber, D., and Zappa, M.: Herleitung
extremer Niederschläge und Hochwasser im Einzugsgebiet des Sihlsees
für einen verbesserten Hochwasserschutz der Stadt Zürich, Hydrologie
und Wasserbewirtschaftung, 59, 48–58, 2015.
Kirchner, J. W.: Getting the right answers for the right reasons: Linking
measurements, analyses, and models to advance the science of hydrology,
Water Resour. Res., 42, W03S04, https://doi.org/10.1029/2005WR004362, 2006.
Klemeš, V.: Dilettantism in hydrology: Transition or destiny?, Water
Resour. Res., 22, 177S–188S, https://doi.org/10.1029/WR022i09Sp0177S, 1986.
Laio, F., Porporato, A., Ridolfi, L., and Rodriguez-Iturbe, I.: Plants in
water-controlled ecosystems: active role in hydrologic processes and
response to water stress, Adv. Water Resour., 24, 707–723,
https://doi.org/10.1016/S0309-1708(01)00005-7, 2001.
Lamb, R., Faulkner, D., Wass, P., and Cameron, D.: Have applications of
continuous rainfall-runoff simulation realised the vision for process-based
flood frequency analysis?, Hydrol. Process., 30, 2463–2481,
https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.10882, 2016.
Leander, R. and Buishand, T. A.: A daily weather generator based on a two-stage resampling algorithm, J. Hydrol., 374, 185–195,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2009.06.010, 2009.
Loucks, D. P. and van Beek, E. (Eds.): Water Resource Systems Planning and
Management, Springer International Publishing, Cham, ISBN 978-3-319-44232-7, 2017.
Maniak, U.: Hydrologie und Wasserwirtschaft: Eine Einführung für
Ingenieure, 5. bearbeitete und erweiterte Ausgabe, Springer, Berlin,
Heidelberg, New York, ISBN 978-3-540-20091-8, 2005.
Marchi, L., Borga, M., Preciso, E., and Gaume, E.: Characterisation of
selected extreme flash floods in Europe and implications for flood risk
management, J. Hydrol., 394, 118–133, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2010.07.017, 2010.
Ménégoz, M., Valla, E., Jourdain, N. C., Blanchet, J., Beaumet, J.,
Wilhelm, B., Gallée, H., Fettweis, X., Morin, S., and Anquetin, S.:
Contrasting seasonal changes in total and intense precipitation in the
European Alps from 1903 to 2010, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 5355–5377,
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5355-2020, 2020.
Merz, R. and Blöschl, G.: A process typology of regional floods, Water
Resour. Res., 39, 1340, https://doi.org/10.1029/2002WR001952, 2003.
Merz, R. and Blöschl, G.: Flood frequency hydrology: 2. Combining data
evidence, Water Resour. Res., 44, W08433, https://doi.org/10.1029/2007WR006745, 2008.
MeteoSwiss: Meteorological time series, https://gate.meteoswiss.ch/idaweb, last access: 30 June 2016.
Mezghani, A. and Hingray, B.: A combined downscaling-disaggregation weather
generator for stochastic generation of multisite hourly weather variables
over complex terrain: Development and multi-scale validation for the Upper
Rhone River basin, J. Hydrol., 377, 245–260, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2009.08.033, 2009.
Micovic, Z., Schaefer, M. G., and Taylor, G. H.: Uncertainty analysis for
Probable Maximum Precipitation estimates, J. Hydrol., 521, 360–373,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2014.12.033, 2015.
Mulvany, T.: On the use of self-registering rain and flood gages in making
observations of the relation of rainfall and flood discharges in a given
catchment, Proc. Inst. Civ. Eng. Ireland, 4, 18–31, 1851.
Naghettini, M., Potter, K. W., and Illangasekare, T.: Estimating the upper
tail of flood-peak frequency distributions using hydrometeorological
information, Water Resour. Res., 32, 1729–1740, https://doi.org/10.1029/96WR00200, 1996.
Nash, J. E. and Sutcliffe, J. V.: River flow forecasting through conceptual
models: Part I – a discussion of principles, J. Hydrol., 10, 282–290,
https://doi.org/10.1016/0022-1694(70)90255-6, 1970.
Naveau, P., Huser, R., Ribereau, P., and Hannart, A.: Modeling jointly low,
moderate, and heavy rainfall intensities without a threshold selection, Water Resour. Res., 52, 2753–2769, https://doi.org/10.1002/2015WR018552, 2016.
Neppel, L., Renard, B., Lang, M., Ayral, P.-A., Coeur, D., Gaume, E., Jacob,
N., Payrastre, O., Pobanz, K., and Vinet, F.: Flood frequency analysis using
historical data: accounting for random and systematic errors, Hydrolog. Sci.
J., 55, 192–208, https://doi.org/10.1080/02626660903546092, 2010.
O'Connor, J. E., Atwater, B. F., Cohn, T. A., Cronin, T. M., Keith, M. K.,
Smith, C. G., and Mason, R. R.: Assessing Inundation Hazards to Nuclear
Powerplant Sites Using Geologically Extended Histories of Riverine Floods,
Tsunamis, and Storm Surges, Prepared for the Nuclear Regulatory Commission,
Scientific Investigations Report 2014-5207, USGS, Reston, VA, USA, 76 pp., https://doi.org/10.3133/sir20145207, 2014.
Okoli, K., Mazzoleni, M., Breinl, K., and Di Baldassarre, G.: A systematic
comparison of statistical and hydrological methods for design flood estimation, Hydrol. Res., 50, 1665–1678, https://doi.org/10.2166/nh.2019.188, 2019.
Papastathopoulos, I. and Tawn, J. A.: Extended generalised Pareto models for
tail estimation, J. Stat. Plan. Infer., 143, 131–143, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jspi.2012.07.001, 2013.
Paquet, E., Garavaglia, F., Garçon, R., and Gailhard, J.: The SCHADEX
method: A semi-continuous rainfall-runoff simulation for extreme flood
estimation, J. Hydrol., 495, 23–37, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2013.04.045, 2013.
Pathiraja, S., Westra, S., and Sharma, A.: Why continuous simulation? The
role of antecedent moisture in design flood estimation, Water Resour. Res.,
48, W06534, https://doi.org/10.1029/2011WR010997, 2012.
Pfäffli, M., Baer, P., Sutter, A., Irniger, A., and Hunziker, R.:
Extremhochwasser an der Aare: Detailbericht E Projekt EXAR, Hydraulische
Modellierungen, ARGE GEOTEST-HZP-IUB, Zollikofen, Aarau, Bern, https://www.wsl.ch/de/projekte/exar-1.html (last access: 12 August 2022), 2020.
Poli, P., Hersbach, H., Dee, D. P., Berrisford, P., Simmons, A. J., Vitart,
F., Laloyaux, P., Tan, D. G. H., Peubey, C., Thépaut, J.-N., Trémolet, Y., Hólm, E. V., Bonavita, M., Isaksen, L., and Fisher,
M.: ERA-20C: An Atmospheric Reanalysis of the Twentieth Century, J. Climate,
29, 4083–4097, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0556.1, 2016.
Pool, S., Vis, M., and Seibert, J.: Evaluating model performance: towards a
non-parametric variant of the Kling-Gupta efficiency, Hydrolog. Sci. J., 63,
1941–1953, https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2018.1552002, 2018.
Porporato, A., Daly, E., and Rodriguez-Iturbe, I.: Soil water balance and
ecosystem response to climate change, Am. Nat. 164, 625–632, 2004.
Primault, B.: Du calcul de l'évapotranspiration, Arch. Met. Geoph.
Biokl. B., 12, 124–150, https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02317957, 1962.
Primault, B.: Extension de la validité de la formule suisse de calcul de
l'évapotranspiration, Arbeitsberichte der SMA, SMA, Vol. 103, https://www.meteoschweiz.admin.ch/content/dam/meteoswiss/fr/Ungebundene-Seiten/Publikationen/Fachberichte/doc/arbeitsbericht103.pdf (last access: 12 August 2022), 1981.
Raynaud, D., Hingray, B., Zin, I., Anquetin, S., Debionne, S., and Vautard,
R.: Atmospheric analogues for physically consistent scenarios of surface
weather in Europe and Maghreb, Int. J. Climatol., 37, 2160–2176,
https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.4844, 2017.
Raynaud, D., Hingray, B., Evin, G., Favre, A.-C., and Chardon, J.:
Assessment of meteorological extremes using a synoptic weather generator and
a downscaling model based on analogues, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24,
4339–4352, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-4339-2020, 2020.
Redmond, K. T., Enzel, Y., House, P. K., and Biondi, F.: Climate Variability
and Flood Frequency at Decadal to Millennial Time Scales, in: Ancient
floods, modern hazards: Principles and applications of paleoflood hydrology,
edited by: House, P. K., American Geophysical Union, Washington, DC, 21–45,
https://doi.org/10.1029/WS005p0021, 2010.
Rogger, M., Kohl, B., Pirkl, H., Viglione, A., Komma, J., Kirnbauer, R., Merz, R., and Blöschl, G.: Runoff models and flood frequency statistics
for design flood estimation in Austria – Do they tell a consistent story?,
J. Hydrol., 456-457, 30–43, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2012.05.068, 2012.
Ruelland, D.: Should altitudinal gradients of temperature and precipitation
inputs be inferred from key parameters in snow-hydrological models?, Hydrol.
Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2609–2632, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-2609-2020, 2020.
Salas, J. D., Gavilán, G., Salas, F. R., Julien, P. R., and Abdullah, J.: Uncertainty of the PMP and PMF, in: Handbook of Engineering Hydrology, edited by: Eslamian, S., CRC Press, 575–603, https://doi.org/10.1201/b16683, 2014.
Salinas, J. L., Kiss, A., Viglione, A., Viertl, R., and Blöschl, G.: A
fuzzy Bayesian approach to flood frequency estimation with imprecise historical information, Water Resour. Res., 52, 6730–6750,
https://doi.org/10.1002/2016WR019177, 2016.
Schaefli, B., Talamba, D. B., and Musy, A.: Quantifying hydrological modeling errors through a mixture of normal distributions, J. Hydrol., 332, 303–315, 2007.
Schmocker-Fackel, P. and Naef, F.: Changes in flood frequencies in Switzerland since 1500, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 1581–1594,
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-14-1581-2010, 2010a.
Schmocker-Fackel, P. and Naef, F.: More frequent flooding? Changes in flood
frequency in Switzerland since 1850, J. Hydrol., 381, 1–8,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2009.09.022, 2010b.
Schnitter, N.: Die Geschichte des Wasserbaus in der Schweiz, Olynthus,
Oberbözberg, 242 pp., ISBN 9783907175156, 1992.
Seibert, J.: Estimation of parameter uncertainty in the HBV model, Nord. Hydrol., 28, 247–262, 1997.
Seibert, J.: Multi-criteria calibration of a conceptual runoff model using a
genetic algorithm, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 4, 215–224, 2000.
Seibert, J.: Multi-criteria calibration of a conceptual runoff model using a genetic algorithm, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 4, 215–224, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-4-215-2000, 2000.
Seibert, J. and Bergström, S.: A retrospective on hydrological catchment
modelling based on half a century with the HBV model, Hydrol. Earth Syst.
Sci., 26, 1371–1388, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1371-2022, 2022.
Seibert, J. and Vis, M. J. P.: Teaching hydrological modeling with a
user-friendly catchment-runoff-model software package, Hydrol. Earth Syst.
Sci., 16, 3315–3325, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-16-3315-2012, 2012.
Seibert, J., Vis, M. J. P., Kohn, I., Weiler, M., and Stahl, K.: Technical
note: Representing glacier geometry changes in a semi-distributed
hydrological model, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2211–2224,
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-2211-2018, 2018.
Sikorska, A. E. and Renard, B.: Calibrating a hydrological model in stage
space to account for rating curve uncertainties: General framework and key
challenges, Adv. Water Resour., 105, 51–66, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.advwatres.2017.04.011, 2017.
Sikorska, A. E., Viviroli, D., and Seibert, J.: Flood-type classification in
mountainous catchments using crisp and fuzzy decision trees, Water Resour.
Res., 51, 7959–7976, https://doi.org/10.1002/2015WR017326, 2015.
Sikorska-Senoner, A. E.: Clustering model responses in the frequency space
for improved simulation-based flood risk studies: The role of a cluster
number, J. Flood Risk Manage., 15, e12772, https://doi.org/10.1111/jfr3.12772, 2022.
Sikorska-Senoner, A. E. and Seibert, J.: Flood-type trend analysis for alpine catchments, Hydrolog. Sci. J., 1–19, https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2020.1749761, 2020.
Sikorska-Senoner, A. E., Schaefli, B., and Seibert, J.: Downsizing parameter
ensembles for simulations of rare floods, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20,
3521–3549, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-3521-2020, 2020.
Staudinger, M. and Viviroli, D. (Eds.): Extremhochwasser an der Aare:
Detailbericht A Projekt EXAR. Hydrometeorologische Grundlagen, University of Zurich, Zurich, https://doi.org/10.5167/uzh-201388, 2020.
Staudinger, M., Furrer, R., and Viviroli, D.: Hochwasserereignisse aus
kontinuierlicher Langzeitsimulation zur Überprüfung der Sicherheit der Stauanlagen: Projektschlussbericht im Auftrag des Bundesamts für
Energie (BFE), Geographisches Institut der Universität Zürich, Zurich, https://pubdb.bfe.admin.ch/de/publication/download/10451 (last access: 12 August 2022), 2021.
swisstopo: DHM25: Das digitale Höhenmodell der Schweiz, Wabern, https://www.swisstopo.admin.ch/content/swisstopo-internet/de/geodata/height/dhm25/_jcr_content/contentPar/tabs_copy/items/dokumente/tabPar/downloadlist/downloadItems/868_1464696772548.download/dhm25infode.pdf (last access: 12 August 2022), 2005.
Ternynck, C., Ben Alaya, M. A., Chebana, F., Dabo-Niang, S., and Ouarda, T.
B. M. J.: Streamflow Hydrograph Classification Using Functional Data Analysis, J. Hydrometeorl., 17, 327–344, https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-14-0200.1, 2016.
Thiessen, A. H.: Precipitation Averages for Large Areas, Mon. Weather Rev., 39, 1082–1084, 1911.
Vetsch, D., Siviglia, A., Caponi, F., Ehrbar, D., Gerke, E., Kammerer, S.,
Koch, A., Peter, S., Vanzo, D., Vonwiller, L., Facchini, M., Gerber, M.,
Volz, C., Farshi, D., Mueller, R., Rousselot, P., Veprek, R., and Faeh, R.:
System Manuals of BASEMENT, Version 2.8, Laboratory of Hydraulics,
Glaciology and Hydrology (VAW), ETH Zurich, Zurich, http://people.ee.ethz.ch/~basement/baseweb/download/documentation/previous/v2-8/BMdoc_Tutorials_v2-8.pdf (last access: 12 August 2022), 2018.
Vischer, D. L.: Das höchstmögliche Hochwasser und der empirische
Grenzabfluss, Schweizer Ingenieur und Architekt, 98, 981–984,
https://doi.org/10.5169/seals-74218, 1980.
Vischer, D. L.: Die Geschichte des Hochwasserschutzes in der Schweiz: Von
den Anfängen bis ins 19. Jahrhundert, Berichte des BWG, Serie Wasser, 5,
BWG – Bundesamt für Wasser und Geologie, Biel, 208 pp., https://www.bafu.admin.ch/dam/bafu/de/dokumente/wasser/uw-umwelt-wissen/die_geschichte_deshochwasserschutzesinderschweizvondenanfaengenb.pdf.download.pdf/die_geschichte_deshochwasserschutzesinderschweizvondenanfaengenb.pdf (last access: 12 August 2022), 2003.
Viviroli, D. and Whealton, C.: Correction of inconsistency in AP2
hydrological model runs, in: Extremhochwasser an der Aare: Detailbericht A
Projekt EXAR, Hydrometeorologische Grundlagen, edited by: Staudinger, M. and
Viviroli, D., University of Zurich, Zurich, 96–104, https://doi.org/10.5167/uzh-201388, 2020.
Viviroli, D., Zappa, M., Gurtz, J., and Weingartner, R.: An introduction to
the hydrological modelling system PREVAH and its pre- and post-processing-tools, Environ. Model. Softw., 24, 1209–1222,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2009.04.001, 2009a.
Viviroli, D., Mittelbach, H., Gurtz, J., and Weingartner, R.: Continuous
simulation for flood estimation in ungauged mesoscale catchments of Switzerland – Part II: Parameter regionalisation and flood estimation
results, J. Hydrol., 377, 208–225, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2009.08.022, 2009b.
Vrugt, J. A., Gupta, H. V., Bouten, W., and Sorooshian, S.: A Shuffled Complex Evolution Metropolis algorithm for optimization and uncertainty
assessment of hydrologic model parameters, Water Resour. Res., 39, 1201,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2002WR001642, 2003.
Weingartner, R. and Aschwanden, H.: Discharge Regime – the Basis for the
Estimation of Average Flows, Hydrological Atlas of Switzerland, Plate 5.2,
FOEN – Federal Office for the Environment, Bern, ISBN 3952026204, 1992.
Westerberg, I. K.: Discharge uncertainty (rating curve), in: Extremhochwasser an der Aare: Detailbericht A Projekt EXAR. Hydrometeorologische Grundlagen, edited by: Staudinger, M. and Viviroli, D., University of Zurich, Zurich,
105–118, https://doi.org/10.5167/uzh-201388, 2020.
Westerberg, I. K., Sikorska-Senoner, A. E., Viviroli, D., Vis, M., and
Seibert, J.: Hydrological model calibration with uncertain discharge data,
Hydrolog. Sci. J., https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2020.1735638, in press, 2020.
Wetter, O.: Rekonstruktion vorinstrumenteller Scheitelwasserstände der
Aare – einschliesslich ihrer wichtigsten Zubringer Saane, Emme, Reuss und
Limmat inklusive einer Meteoumfeldanalyse für die extremsten Hochwasser:
Non-public pilot study for the EXAR project commissioned by the Swiss Federal Office for the Environment (FOEN), Bern, 148 pp., https://www.wetter-risk.ch/referenzen/auftragsstudien/ (last access: 29 August 2022), 2015.
Wetter, O.: The potential of historical hydrology in Switzerland, Hydrol.
Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 5781–5803, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-5781-2017, 2017.
Wilks, D. S.: Multisite generalization of a daily stochastic precipitation
generation model, J. Hydrol., 210, 178–191, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0022-1694(98)00186-3, 1998.
Wilks, D. S. and Wilby, R. L.: The weather generation game: a review of
stochastic weather models, Prog. Phys. Geogr., 23, 329–357,
https://doi.org/10.1177/030913339902300302, 1999.
Winter, B., Schneeberger, K., Dung, N. V., Huttenlau, M., Achleitner, S.,
Stötter, J., Merz, B., and Vorogushyn, S.: A continuous modelling
approach for design flood estimation on sub-daily time scale, Hydrolog. Sci.
J., 64, 539–554, https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2019.1593419, 2019.
World Meteorological Organization: Guide to Hydrological Practice: Data
acquisition and processing, analysis, forecasting and other applications,
Fifth edition, WMO Publ., 168, WMO, Geneva, 1994.
World Meteorological Organization: Manual on Estimation of Probable Maximum
Precipitation (PMP), WMO Publ. 1045, WMO, 291 pp., ISBN 978-92-63-11045-9, 2009.
Zhang, Y. and Singh, V. P.: Quantifying Uncertainty of Probable Maximum Flood, J. Hydrol. Eng., 26, 04021041, https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)HE.1943-5584.0002142, 2021.
Zischg, A. P., Felder, G., Weingartner, R., Quinn, N., Coxon, G., Neal, J.,
Freer, J., and Bates, P.: Effects of variability in probable maximum
precipitation patterns on flood losses, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22,
2759–2773, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-2759-2018, 2018.
Zorzetto, E., Botter, G., and Marani, M.: On the emergence of rainfall
extremes from ordinary events, Geophys. Res. Lett., 43, 8076–8082,
https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL069445, 2016.
Executive editor
This paper is very relevant for science but also society: the paper presents an approach for estimating rare to very rare floods at multiple sites in a large river basin. Compared to statistical approaches based on streamflow observations, the Continuous Simulation (CS) approach has substantial advantages in that it explicitly considers important processes of flood generation such as soil moisture, snow accumulation and snowmelt, and in addition can implement lake regulation, dam operation as well as lake and floodplain retention
This paper is very relevant for science but also society: the paper presents an approach for...
Short summary
Estimating the magnitude of rare to very rare floods is a challenging task due to a lack of sufficiently long observations. The challenge is even greater in large river basins, where precipitation patterns and amounts differ considerably between individual events and floods from different parts of the basin coincide. We show that a hydrometeorological model chain can provide plausible estimates in this setting and can thus inform flood risk and safety assessments for critical infrastructure.
Estimating the magnitude of rare to very rare floods is a challenging task due to a lack of...
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint