Articles | Volume 22, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1201-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1201-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
07 Apr 2022
Research article |
| 07 Apr 2022
| 07 Apr 2022
Education, financial aid, and awareness can reduce smallholder farmers' vulnerability to drought under climate change
Institute for Environmental Studies, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Amsterdam, the Netherlands
Anne F. van Loon
Institute for Environmental Studies, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Amsterdam, the Netherlands
Ted I. E. Veldkamp
Urban Technology, Amsterdam University of Applied Sciences, Amsterdam, the Netherlands
Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts
Institute for Environmental Studies, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Amsterdam, the Netherlands
Related authors
Anne F. Van Loon, Sarra Kchouk, Alessia Matanó, Faranak Tootoonchi, Camila Alvarez-Garreton, Khalid E. A. Hassaballah, Minchao Wu, Marthe L. K. Wens, Anastasiya Shyrokaya, Elena Ridolfi, Riccardo Biella, Viorica Nagavciuc, Marlies H. Barendrecht, Ana Bastos, Louise Cavalcante, Franciska T. de Vries, Margaret Garcia, Johanna Mård, Ileen N. Streefkerk, Claudia Teutschbein, Roshanak Tootoonchi, Ruben Weesie, Valentin Aich, Juan P. Boisier, Giuliano Di Baldassarre, Yiheng Du, Mauricio Galleguillos, René Garreaud, Monica Ionita, Sina Khatami, Johanna K. L. Koehler, Charles H. Luce, Shreedhar Maskey, Heidi D. Mendoza, Moses N. Mwangi, Ilias G. Pechlivanidis, Germano G. Ribeiro Neto, Tirthankar Roy, Robert Stefanski, Patricia Trambauer, Elizabeth A. Koebele, Giulia Vico, and Micha Werner
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-421, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-421, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Drought is a creeping phenomenon, but it is often still analysed and managed like an event without taking into consideration what happened before and after. In this paper we review the literature and discuss five cases, where drought, its impacts and responses develop differently over time. We look at the hydrological, ecological and social system and their connections. And we provide suggestions for further research and for monitoring, modelling and management.
Anne F. Van Loon, Sarra Kchouk, Alessia Matanó, Faranak Tootoonchi, Camila Alvarez-Garreton, Khalid E. A. Hassaballah, Minchao Wu, Marthe L. K. Wens, Anastasiya Shyrokaya, Elena Ridolfi, Riccardo Biella, Viorica Nagavciuc, Marlies H. Barendrecht, Ana Bastos, Louise Cavalcante, Franciska T. de Vries, Margaret Garcia, Johanna Mård, Ileen N. Streefkerk, Claudia Teutschbein, Roshanak Tootoonchi, Ruben Weesie, Valentin Aich, Juan P. Boisier, Giuliano Di Baldassarre, Yiheng Du, Mauricio Galleguillos, René Garreaud, Monica Ionita, Sina Khatami, Johanna K. L. Koehler, Charles H. Luce, Shreedhar Maskey, Heidi D. Mendoza, Moses N. Mwangi, Ilias G. Pechlivanidis, Germano G. Ribeiro Neto, Tirthankar Roy, Robert Stefanski, Patricia Trambauer, Elizabeth A. Koebele, Giulia Vico, and Micha Werner
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-421, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-421, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Drought is a creeping phenomenon, but it is often still analysed and managed like an event without taking into consideration what happened before and after. In this paper we review the literature and discuss five cases, where drought, its impacts and responses develop differently over time. We look at the hydrological, ecological and social system and their connections. And we provide suggestions for further research and for monitoring, modelling and management.
Sadhana Nirandjan, Elco E. Koks, Mengqi Ye, Raghav Pant, Kees C. H. van Ginkel, Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts, and Philip J. Ward
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-208, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-208, 2024
Preprint under review for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
Critical infrastructures (CI) are exposed to natural hazards, which may result in significant damage and burden society. The vulnerability is a key determinant for reducing these risks, yet crucial information is scattered in literature. Our study reviews over 1,250 fragility and vulnerability curves for CI assets, creating a unique publicly available physical vulnerability database that can directly be used for hazard risk assessments, including floods, earthquakes, windstorms and landslides.
Kushagra Pandey, Jens A. de Bruijn, Hans de Moel, Wouter Botzen, and Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-17, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-17, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
SLR will lead to more frequent flooding, and salt intrusion in coastal areas will be a major concern for farming households that are highly dependent on the soil quality for their livelihoods. In this study, we simulated the risk of SLR and flooding to coastal farmers by assessing salt intrusion risk and flood damage to buildings.
Viet Dung Nguyen, Jeroen Aerts, Max Tesselaar, Wouter Boutzen, Heidi Kreibich, Lorenzo Alfieri, and Bruno Merz
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2862, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2862, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Our study explored how seasonal flood forecasts could enhance insurance premium accuracy. Insurers traditionally rely on historical data, yet climate fluctuations influence flood risk. We employed a method that predicts seasonal floods to adjust premiums accordingly. Our findings showed significant year-to-year variations in flood risk and premiums, underscoring the importance of adaptability. Despite limitations, this research aids insurers in preparing for evolving risks.
Marleen R. Lam, Alessia Matanó, Anne F. Van Loon, Rhoda A. Odongo, Aklilu D. Teklesadik, Charles N. Wamucii, Marc J. C. van den Homberg, Shamton Waruru, and Adriaan J. Teuling
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2915–2936, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2915-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2915-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
There is still no full understanding of the relation between drought impacts and drought indices in the Horn of Africa where water scarcity and arid regions are also present. This study assesses their relation in Kenya. A random forest model reveals that each region, aggregated by aridity, has its own set of predictors for every impact category. Water scarcity was not found to be related to aridity. Understanding these relations contributes to the development of drought early warning systems.
Rhoda A. Odongo, Hans De Moel, and Anne F. Van Loon
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2365–2386, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2365-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2365-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We characterize meteorological (P), soil moisture (SM) and hydrological (Q) droughts and the propagation from one to the other for 318 catchments in the Horn of Africa. We find that propagation from P to SM is influenced by soil properties and vegetation, while propagation from P to Q is from catchment-scale hydrogeological properties (i.e. geology, slope). We provide precipitation accumulation periods at the subbasin level that can be used as a proxy in drought forecasting in dryland regions.
Job C. M. Dullaart, Sanne Muis, Hans de Moel, Philip J. Ward, Dirk Eilander, and Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1847–1862, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1847-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1847-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Coastal flooding is driven by storm surges and high tides and can be devastating. To gain an understanding of the threat posed by coastal flooding and to identify areas that are especially at risk, now and in the future, it is crucial to accurately model coastal inundation and assess the coastal flood hazard. Here, we present a global dataset with hydrographs that represent the typical evolution of an extreme sea level. These can be used to model coastal inundation more accurately.
Heidi Kreibich, Kai Schröter, Giuliano Di Baldassarre, Anne F. Van Loon, Maurizio Mazzoleni, Guta Wakbulcho Abeshu, Svetlana Agafonova, Amir AghaKouchak, Hafzullah Aksoy, Camila Alvarez-Garreton, Blanca Aznar, Laila Balkhi, Marlies H. Barendrecht, Sylvain Biancamaria, Liduin Bos-Burgering, Chris Bradley, Yus Budiyono, Wouter Buytaert, Lucinda Capewell, Hayley Carlson, Yonca Cavus, Anaïs Couasnon, Gemma Coxon, Ioannis Daliakopoulos, Marleen C. de Ruiter, Claire Delus, Mathilde Erfurt, Giuseppe Esposito, Didier François, Frédéric Frappart, Jim Freer, Natalia Frolova, Animesh K. Gain, Manolis Grillakis, Jordi Oriol Grima, Diego A. Guzmán, Laurie S. Huning, Monica Ionita, Maxim Kharlamov, Dao Nguyen Khoi, Natalie Kieboom, Maria Kireeva, Aristeidis Koutroulis, Waldo Lavado-Casimiro, Hong-Yi Li, Maria Carmen LLasat, David Macdonald, Johanna Mård, Hannah Mathew-Richards, Andrew McKenzie, Alfonso Mejia, Eduardo Mario Mendiondo, Marjolein Mens, Shifteh Mobini, Guilherme Samprogna Mohor, Viorica Nagavciuc, Thanh Ngo-Duc, Huynh Thi Thao Nguyen, Pham Thi Thao Nhi, Olga Petrucci, Nguyen Hong Quan, Pere Quintana-Seguí, Saman Razavi, Elena Ridolfi, Jannik Riegel, Md Shibly Sadik, Nivedita Sairam, Elisa Savelli, Alexey Sazonov, Sanjib Sharma, Johanna Sörensen, Felipe Augusto Arguello Souza, Kerstin Stahl, Max Steinhausen, Michael Stoelzle, Wiwiana Szalińska, Qiuhong Tang, Fuqiang Tian, Tamara Tokarczyk, Carolina Tovar, Thi Van Thu Tran, Marjolein H. J. van Huijgevoort, Michelle T. H. van Vliet, Sergiy Vorogushyn, Thorsten Wagener, Yueling Wang, Doris E. Wendt, Elliot Wickham, Long Yang, Mauricio Zambrano-Bigiarini, and Philip J. Ward
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 2009–2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-2009-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-2009-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
As the adverse impacts of hydrological extremes increase in many regions of the world, a better understanding of the drivers of changes in risk and impacts is essential for effective flood and drought risk management. We present a dataset containing data of paired events, i.e. two floods or two droughts that occurred in the same area. The dataset enables comparative analyses and allows detailed context-specific assessments. Additionally, it supports the testing of socio-hydrological models.
Jens A. de Bruijn, Mikhail Smilovic, Peter Burek, Luca Guillaumot, Yoshihide Wada, and Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 2437–2454, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-2437-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-2437-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We present a computer simulation model of the hydrological system and human system, which can simulate the behaviour of individual farmers and their interactions with the water system at basin scale to assess how the systems have evolved and are projected to evolve in the future. For example, we can simulate the effect of subsidies provided on investment in adaptation measures and subsequent effects in the hydrological system, such as a lowering of the groundwater table or reservoir level.
Colin Manning, Martin Widmann, Douglas Maraun, Anne F. Van Loon, and Emanuele Bevacqua
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 309–329, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-309-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-309-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Climate models differ in their representation of dry spells and high temperatures, linked to errors in the simulation of persistent large-scale anticyclones. Models that simulate more persistent anticyclones simulate longer and hotter dry spells, and vice versa. This information is important to consider when assessing the likelihood of such events in current and future climate simulations so that we can assess the plausibility of their future projections.
Raed Hamed, Sem Vijverberg, Anne F. Van Loon, Jeroen Aerts, and Dim Coumou
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 255–272, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-255-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-255-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Spatially compounding soy harvest failures can have important global impacts. Using causal networks, we show that soy yields are predominately driven by summer soil moisture conditions in North and South America. Summer soil moisture is affected by antecedent soil moisture and by remote extra-tropical SST patterns in both hemispheres. Both of these soil moisture drivers are again influenced by ENSO. Our results highlight physical pathways by which ENSO can drive spatially compounding impacts.
Paolo Scussolini, Job Dullaart, Sanne Muis, Alessio Rovere, Pepijn Bakker, Dim Coumou, Hans Renssen, Philip J. Ward, and Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts
Clim. Past, 19, 141–157, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-141-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-141-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We reconstruct sea level extremes due to storm surges in a past warmer climate. We employ a novel combination of paleoclimate modeling and global ocean hydrodynamic modeling. We find that during the Last Interglacial, about 127 000 years ago, seasonal sea level extremes were indeed significantly different – higher or lower – on long stretches of the global coast. These changes are associated with different patterns of atmospheric storminess linked with meridional shifts in wind bands.
Veit Blauhut, Michael Stoelzle, Lauri Ahopelto, Manuela I. Brunner, Claudia Teutschbein, Doris E. Wendt, Vytautas Akstinas, Sigrid J. Bakke, Lucy J. Barker, Lenka Bartošová, Agrita Briede, Carmelo Cammalleri, Ksenija Cindrić Kalin, Lucia De Stefano, Miriam Fendeková, David C. Finger, Marijke Huysmans, Mirjana Ivanov, Jaak Jaagus, Jiří Jakubínský, Svitlana Krakovska, Gregor Laaha, Monika Lakatos, Kiril Manevski, Mathias Neumann Andersen, Nina Nikolova, Marzena Osuch, Pieter van Oel, Kalina Radeva, Renata J. Romanowicz, Elena Toth, Mirek Trnka, Marko Urošev, Julia Urquijo Reguera, Eric Sauquet, Aleksandra Stevkov, Lena M. Tallaksen, Iryna Trofimova, Anne F. Van Loon, Michelle T. H. van Vliet, Jean-Philippe Vidal, Niko Wanders, Micha Werner, Patrick Willems, and Nenad Živković
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2201–2217, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2201-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2201-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Recent drought events caused enormous damage in Europe. We therefore questioned the existence and effect of current drought management strategies on the actual impacts and how drought is perceived by relevant stakeholders. Over 700 participants from 28 European countries provided insights into drought hazard and impact perception and current management strategies. The study concludes with an urgent need to collectively combat drought risk via a European macro-level drought governance approach.
Philip J. Ward, James Daniell, Melanie Duncan, Anna Dunne, Cédric Hananel, Stefan Hochrainer-Stigler, Annegien Tijssen, Silvia Torresan, Roxana Ciurean, Joel C. Gill, Jana Sillmann, Anaïs Couasnon, Elco Koks, Noemi Padrón-Fumero, Sharon Tatman, Marianne Tronstad Lund, Adewole Adesiyun, Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts, Alexander Alabaster, Bernard Bulder, Carlos Campillo Torres, Andrea Critto, Raúl Hernández-Martín, Marta Machado, Jaroslav Mysiak, Rene Orth, Irene Palomino Antolín, Eva-Cristina Petrescu, Markus Reichstein, Timothy Tiggeloven, Anne F. Van Loon, Hung Vuong Pham, and Marleen C. de Ruiter
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1487–1497, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1487-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1487-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The majority of natural-hazard risk research focuses on single hazards (a flood, a drought, a volcanic eruption, an earthquake, etc.). In the international research and policy community it is recognised that risk management could benefit from a more systemic approach. In this perspective paper, we argue for an approach that addresses multi-hazard, multi-risk management through the lens of sustainability challenges that cut across sectors, regions, and hazards.
Raed Hamed, Anne F. Van Loon, Jeroen Aerts, and Dim Coumou
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 1371–1391, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1371-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1371-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Soy yields in the US are affected by climate variability. We identify the main within-season climate drivers and highlight potential compound events and associated agricultural impacts. Our results show that soy yields are most negatively influenced by the combination of high temperature and low soil moisture during the summer crop reproductive period. Furthermore, we highlight the role of temperature and moisture coupling across the year in generating these hot–dry extremes and linked impacts.
Doris E. Wendt, John P. Bloomfield, Anne F. Van Loon, Margaret Garcia, Benedikt Heudorfer, Joshua Larsen, and David M. Hannah
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3113–3139, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3113-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3113-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Managing water demand and supply during droughts is complex, as highly pressured human–water systems can overuse water sources to maintain water supply. We evaluated the impact of drought policies on water resources using a socio-hydrological model. For a range of hydrogeological conditions, we found that integrated drought policies reduce baseflow and groundwater droughts most if extra surface water is imported, reducing the pressure on water resources during droughts.
Marit Van Tiel, Anne F. Van Loon, Jan Seibert, and Kerstin Stahl
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 3245–3265, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3245-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3245-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Glaciers can buffer streamflow during dry and warm periods, but under which circumstances can melt compensate precipitation deficits? Streamflow responses to warm and dry events were analyzed using
long-term observations of 50 glacierized catchments in Norway, Canada, and the European Alps. Region, timing of the event, relative glacier cover, and antecedent event conditions all affect the level of compensation during these events. This implies that glaciers do not compensate straightforwardly.
Anne F. Van Loon, Imogen Lester-Moseley, Melanie Rohse, Phil Jones, and Rosie Day
Geosci. Commun., 3, 453–474, https://doi.org/10.5194/gc-3-453-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gc-3-453-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The Global South is vulnerable to natural hazards like floods and droughts, but creativity could support community preparedness. We mapped 267 papers that use a variety of art forms. They aim to raise the public's awareness or instigate adaptation by participants. In our pilot in South Africa, community members developed stories about preparing for future drought. This led to an imagination of future events, conversations about adaptation, intergenerational exchange, and increased awareness.
Doris E. Wendt, Anne F. Van Loon, John P. Bloomfield, and David M. Hannah
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4853–4868, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-4853-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-4853-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Groundwater use changes the availability of groundwater, especially during droughts. This study investigates the impact of groundwater use on groundwater droughts. A methodological framework is presented that was developed and applied to the UK. We identified an asymmetric impact of groundwater use on droughts, which highlights the relation between short-term and long-term strategies for sustainable groundwater use.
Jens A. de Bruijn, James E. Daniell, Antonios Pomonis, Rashmin Gunasekera, Joshua Macabuag, Marleen C. de Ruiter, Siem Jan Koopman, Nadia Bloemendaal, Hans de Moel, and Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-282, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-282, 2020
Revised manuscript not accepted
Short summary
Short summary
Following hurricanes and other natural hazards, it is important to quickly estimate the damage caused by the hazard such that recovery aid can be granted from organizations such as the European Union and the World Bank. To do so, it is important to estimate the vulnerability of buildings to the hazards. In this research, we use post-disaster observations from social media to improve these vulnerability assessments and show its application in the Bahamas following Hurricane Dorian.
Bentje Brauns, Daniela Cuba, John P. Bloomfield, David M. Hannah, Christopher Jackson, Ben P. Marchant, Benedikt Heudorfer, Anne F. Van Loon, Hélène Bessière, Bo Thunholm, and Gerhard Schubert
Proc. IAHS, 383, 297–305, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-383-297-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-383-297-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
In Europe, ca. 65% of drinking water is groundwater. Its replenishment depends on rainfall, but droughts may cause groundwater levels to fall below normal. These
groundwater droughtscan limit supply, making it crucial to understand their regional connection. The Groundwater Drought Initiative (GDI) assesses spatial patterns in historic—recent groundwater droughts across Europe for the first time. Using an example dataset, we describe the background to the GDI and its methodological approach.
Johanna Englhardt, Hans de Moel, Charles K. Huyck, Marleen C. de Ruiter, Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts, and Philip J. Ward
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1703–1722, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1703-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1703-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Large-scale risk assessments can be improved by a more direct relation between the type of exposed buildings and their flood impact. Compared to the common land-use-based approach, this model reflects heterogeneous structures and defines building-material-based vulnerability classes. This approach is particularly interesting for areas with large variations of building types, such as developing countries and large scales, and enables vulnerability comparison across different natural disasters.
Shiqiang Du, Xiaotao Cheng, Qingxu Huang, Ruishan Chen, Philip J. Ward, and Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 715–719, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-715-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-715-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
A mega-flood in 1998 caused tremendous losses in China and triggered major policy adjustments in flood-risk management. This paper rethinks these policy adjustments and discusses how China should adapt to newly emerging flood challenges. We suggest that China needs novel flood-risk management approaches to address the new challenges from rapid urbanization and climate change. These include risk-based urban planning and a coordinated water governance system.
Anne F. Van Loon, Sally Rangecroft, Gemma Coxon, José Agustín Breña Naranjo, Floris Van Ogtrop, and Henny A. J. Van Lanen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1725–1739, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-1725-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-1725-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
We explore the use of the classic
paired-catchmentapproach to quantify human influence on hydrological droughts. In this approach two similar catchments are compared and differences are attributed to the human activity present in one. In two case studies in UK and Australia, we found that groundwater abstraction aggravated streamflow drought by > 200 % and water transfer alleviated droughts with 25–80 %. Understanding the human influence on droughts can support water management decisions.
Giuliano Di Baldassarre, Heidi Kreibich, Sergiy Vorogushyn, Jeroen Aerts, Karsten Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Marlies Barendrecht, Paul Bates, Marco Borga, Wouter Botzen, Philip Bubeck, Bruna De Marchi, Carmen Llasat, Maurizio Mazzoleni, Daniela Molinari, Elena Mondino, Johanna Mård, Olga Petrucci, Anna Scolobig, Alberto Viglione, and Philip J. Ward
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 5629–5637, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-5629-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-5629-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
One common approach to cope with floods is the implementation of structural flood protection measures, such as levees. Numerous scholars have problematized this approach and shown that increasing levels of flood protection can generate a false sense of security and attract more people to the risky areas. We briefly review the literature on this topic and then propose a research agenda to explore the unintended consequences of structural flood protection.
Iris Manola, Bart van den Hurk, Hans De Moel, and Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3777–3788, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-3777-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-3777-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
In a warmer climate, it is expected that precipitation intensities will increase and form a considerable risk of high-impact precipitation extremes. We investigate how observed extreme precipitation events would look like if they took place in a future warmer climate. This study applies three methods to transform a historic extreme precipitation event in the Netherlands to a similar event in a future warmer climate, thus compiling a
future weatherscenario.
Marit Van Tiel, Adriaan J. Teuling, Niko Wanders, Marc J. P. Vis, Kerstin Stahl, and Anne F. Van Loon
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 463–485, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-463-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-463-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Glaciers are important hydrological reservoirs. Short-term variability in glacier melt and also glacier retreat can cause droughts in streamflow. In this study, we analyse the effect of glacier changes and different drought threshold approaches on future projections of streamflow droughts in glacierised catchments. We show that these different methodological options result in different drought projections and that these options can be used to study different aspects of streamflow droughts.
Konstantinos Bischiniotis, Bart van den Hurk, Brenden Jongman, Erin Coughlan de Perez, Ted Veldkamp, Hans de Moel, and Jeroen Aerts
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 271–285, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-271-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-271-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Preparedness activities and flood forecasting have received increasing attention and have led towards new science-based early warning systems. Understanding the flood triggering mechanisms will result in increasing warning lead times, providing sufficient time for early action. Findings of this study indicate that the consideration of short- and long-term antecedent conditions can be used by humanitarian organizations and decision makers for improved flood risk management.
Niko Wanders, Anne F. Van Loon, and Henny A. J. Van Lanen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2017-512, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2017-512, 2017
Revised manuscript has not been submitted
Short summary
Short summary
This paper investigates the similarities between frequently used drought indicators and how they should be used for global drought monitoring. We find that drought indicators that should monitor drought in the same hydrological domain show high discrepancy in their anomalies and thus drought detection. This shows that the current ways of monitoring drought events is not sufficient to fully capture the complexity of drought events and monitor the socio-economic impact of these large-scale events.
Marleen C. de Ruiter, Philip J. Ward, James E. Daniell, and Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 1231–1251, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-1231-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-1231-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
This study provides cross-discipline lessons for earthquake and flood vulnerability assessment methods by comparing indicators used in both fields. It appears that there is potential for improvement of these methods that can be obtained for both earthquake and flood vulnerability assessment indicators. This increased understanding is beneficial for both scientists as well as practitioners working with earthquake and/or flood vulnerability assessment methods.
Gregor Laaha, Tobias Gauster, Lena M. Tallaksen, Jean-Philippe Vidal, Kerstin Stahl, Christel Prudhomme, Benedikt Heudorfer, Radek Vlnas, Monica Ionita, Henny A. J. Van Lanen, Mary-Jeanne Adler, Laurie Caillouet, Claire Delus, Miriam Fendekova, Sebastien Gailliez, Jamie Hannaford, Daniel Kingston, Anne F. Van Loon, Luis Mediero, Marzena Osuch, Renata Romanowicz, Eric Sauquet, James H. Stagge, and Wai K. Wong
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3001–3024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-3001-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-3001-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
In 2015 large parts of Europe were affected by a drought. In terms of low flow magnitude, a region around the Czech Republic was most affected, with return periods > 100 yr. In terms of deficit volumes, the drought was particularly severe around S. Germany where the event lasted notably long. Meteorological and hydrological events developed differently in space and time. For an assessment of drought impacts on water resources, hydrological data are required in addition to meteorological indices.
Jens de Bruijn, Hans de Moel, Brenden Jongman, Jurjen Wagemaker, and Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2017-203, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2017-203, 2017
Revised manuscript not accepted
Short summary
Short summary
In this work we present TAGSS, an algorithm that extracts and geolocates tweets using locations mentioned in the text of a tweet. We have applied TAGGS to flood events. However, TAGGS has enormous potential for application in the broad field of geosciences and natural hazards of any kind in particular, where availability of timely and accurate information about the impacts of an ongoing event can assist relief organizations in enhancing their disaster response activities.
Anne F. Van Loon, Rohini Kumar, and Vimal Mishra
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1947–1971, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-1947-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-1947-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Summer 2015 was extremely dry in Europe, hampering groundwater supply to irrigation and drinking water. For effective management, the groundwater situation should be monitored in real time, but data are not available. We tested two methods to estimate groundwater in near-real time, based on satellite data and using the relationship between rainfall and historic groundwater levels. The second method gave a good spatially variable representation of the 2015 groundwater drought in Europe.
Sally Rangecroft, Anne F. Van Loon, Héctor Maureira, Koen Verbist, and David M. Hannah
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2016-57, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2016-57, 2016
Preprint withdrawn
Short summary
Short summary
This paper on anthropogenic droughts looks at the interactions of human activity and "natural" processes. Using a case study of the introduction of a reservoir in a Chilean river basin and a new methodology, we established the most effective way forward for quantifying human activities on hydrological drought: the "threshold level" method with an "undisturbed" time period as the threshold. This will increase our understanding on how human activities are impacting the hydrological system.
Jaroslav Mysiak, Swenja Surminski, Annegret Thieken, Reinhard Mechler, and Jeroen Aerts
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 2189–2193, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-2189-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-2189-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
In March 2015, a new international blueprint for disaster risk reduction (DRR) has been adopted in Sendai, Japan, at the end of the Third UN World Conference on Disaster Risk Reduction (WCDRR, March 14–18, 2015). We review and discuss the agreed commitments and targets, as well as the negotiation leading the Sendai Framework for DRR (SFDRR), and discuss briefly its implication for the later UN-led negotiations on sustainable development goals and climate change.
Anne F. Van Loon, Kerstin Stahl, Giuliano Di Baldassarre, Julian Clark, Sally Rangecroft, Niko Wanders, Tom Gleeson, Albert I. J. M. Van Dijk, Lena M. Tallaksen, Jamie Hannaford, Remko Uijlenhoet, Adriaan J. Teuling, David M. Hannah, Justin Sheffield, Mark Svoboda, Boud Verbeiren, Thorsten Wagener, and Henny A. J. Van Lanen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3631–3650, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-3631-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-3631-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
In the Anthropocene, drought cannot be viewed as a natural hazard independent of people. Drought can be alleviated or made worse by human activities and drought impacts are dependent on a myriad of factors. In this paper, we identify research gaps and suggest a framework that will allow us to adequately analyse and manage drought in the Anthropocene. We need to focus on attribution of drought to different drivers, linking drought to its impacts, and feedbacks between drought and society.
Elco E. Koks, Lorenzo Carrera, Olaf Jonkeren, Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts, Trond G. Husby, Mark Thissen, Gabriele Standardi, and Jaroslav Mysiak
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 1911–1924, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-1911-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-1911-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
In this study we analyze the economic consequences for two flood scenarios in the Po River basin in Italy, using three regional disaster impact models: two hybrid IO models and a regionally CGE model. Modelling results indicate that the difference in estimated total (national) economic losses and the regional distribution of those losses may vary by up to a factor of 7 between the three models, depending on the type of recovery path. Total economic impact is negative in all models though.
Paolo Scussolini, Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts, Brenden Jongman, Laurens M. Bouwer, Hessel C. Winsemius, Hans de Moel, and Philip J. Ward
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 1049–1061, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-1049-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-1049-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Assessments of flood risk, on global to local scales, are becoming more urgent with ongoing climate change and with rapid socioeconomic developments. Such assessments need information about existing flood protection, still largely unavailable. Here we present the first open-source database of FLood PROtection Standards, FLOPROS, which enables more accurate modelling of flood risk. We also invite specialists to contribute new information to this evolving database.
Kerstin Stahl, Irene Kohn, Veit Blauhut, Julia Urquijo, Lucia De Stefano, Vanda Acácio, Susana Dias, James H. Stagge, Lena M. Tallaksen, Eleni Kampragou, Anne F. Van Loon, Lucy J. Barker, Lieke A. Melsen, Carlo Bifulco, Dario Musolino, Alessandro de Carli, Antonio Massarutto, Dionysis Assimacopoulos, and Henny A. J. Van Lanen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 801–819, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-801-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-801-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Based on the European Drought Impact report Inventory (EDII), the study presents an assessment of the occurrence and diversity of drought impacts across Europe. A unique research database has collected close to 5000 textual drought impact reports from 33 European countries. Consistently, reported impacts have been dominated in number by agriculture and water supply, but were very diverse across other sectors. Data and assessment may help drought policy planning at the international level.
Yus Budiyono, Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts, Daniel Tollenaar, and Philip J. Ward
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 757–774, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-757-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-757-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
The paper describes a model framework for assessing flood risk in Jakarta under current and future scenarios (2030 and 2050) including climate change, sea level rise, land use change, and land subsidence. The results shows individual impact of future changes and serve as a basis to evaluate adaptation strategies in cities. They also show while the impacts of climate change alone on flood risk in Jakarta are highly uncertain, the combined impacts of all drivers reveal a strong increase in risk.
Rohini Kumar, Jude L. Musuuza, Anne F. Van Loon, Adriaan J. Teuling, Roland Barthel, Jurriaan Ten Broek, Juliane Mai, Luis Samaniego, and Sabine Attinger
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1117–1131, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-1117-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-1117-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
In a maiden attempt, we performed a multiscale evaluation of the widely used SPI to characterize local- and regional-scale groundwater (GW) droughts using observations at 2040 groundwater wells in Germany and the Netherlands. From this data-based exploratory analysis, we provide sufficient evidence regarding the inability of the SPI to characterize GW drought events, and stress the need for more GW observations and accounting for regional hydrogeological characteristics in GW drought monitoring.
T. I. E. Veldkamp, S. Eisner, Y. Wada, J. C. J. H. Aerts, and P. J. Ward
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 4081–4098, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-4081-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-4081-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
Freshwater shortage is one of the most important risks, partially driven by climate variability. Here we present a first global scale sensitivity assessment of water scarcity events to El Niño-Southern Oscillation, the most dominant climate variability signal. Given the found correlations, covering a large share of the global land area, and seen the developments of water scarcity impacts under changing socioeconomic conditions, we show that there is large potential for ENSO-based risk reduction.
A. F. Van Loon, S. W. Ploum, J. Parajka, A. K. Fleig, E. Garnier, G. Laaha, and H. A. J. Van Lanen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1993–2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-1993-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-1993-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
Hydrological drought types in cold climates have complex causing factors and impacts. In Austria and Norway, a lack of snowmelt is mainly related to below-normal winter precipitation, and a lack of glaciermelt is mainly related to below-normal summer temperature. These and other hydrological drought types impacted hydropower production, water supply, and agriculture in Europe and the US in the recent and far past. For selected drought events in Norway impacts could be coupled to causing factors.
B. S. Beyene, A. F. Van Loon, H. A. J. Van Lanen, and P. J. J. F. Torfs
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hessd-11-12765-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hessd-11-12765-2014, 2014
Manuscript not accepted for further review
Short summary
Short summary
This paper explores possible threshold level calculation methods for hydrological drought analysis. We proposed four threshold methods applied to time series of hydrometeorological variables and inter-compared the drought propagation patterns. Our results have shown that these methods can influence the magnitude and severity of droughts differently and even may introduce artefact drought events. Therefore, we suggest the use and checking of these threshold approaches for drought analysis.
B. Merz, J. Aerts, K. Arnbjerg-Nielsen, M. Baldi, A. Becker, A. Bichet, G. Blöschl, L. M. Bouwer, A. Brauer, F. Cioffi, J. M. Delgado, M. Gocht, F. Guzzetti, S. Harrigan, K. Hirschboeck, C. Kilsby, W. Kron, H.-H. Kwon, U. Lall, R. Merz, K. Nissen, P. Salvatti, T. Swierczynski, U. Ulbrich, A. Viglione, P. J. Ward, M. Weiler, B. Wilhelm, and M. Nied
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 1921–1942, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-1921-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-1921-2014, 2014
P. Hudson, W. J. W. Botzen, H. Kreibich, P. Bubeck, and J. C. J. H. Aerts
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 1731–1747, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-1731-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-1731-2014, 2014
R. Lasage, T. I. E. Veldkamp, H. de Moel, T. C. Van, H. L. Phi, P. Vellinga, and J. C. J. H. Aerts
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 1441–1457, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-1441-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-1441-2014, 2014
H. A. J. Van Lanen, N. Wanders, L. M. Tallaksen, and A. F. Van Loon
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 1715–1732, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-1715-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-1715-2013, 2013
Related subject area
Risk Assessment, Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies, Socioeconomic and Management Aspects
Factors of influence on flood risk perceptions related to Hurricane Dorian: an assessment of heuristics, time dynamics, and accuracy of risk perceptions
Anticipating a risky future: long short-term memory (LSTM) models for spatiotemporal extrapolation of population data in areas prone to earthquakes and tsunamis in Lima, Peru
A new regionally consistent exposure database for Central Asia: population and residential buildings
Study on seismic risk assessment model of water supply systems in mainland China
Mapping current and future flood exposure using a 5 m flood model and climate change projections
Brief communication: On the environmental impacts of the 2023 floods in Emilia-Romagna (Italy)
A regional-scale approach to assessing non-residential building, transportation and cropland exposure in Central Asia
Towards a global impact-based forecasting model for tropical cyclones
Identifying vulnerable populations in urban society: a case study in a flood-prone district of Wuhan, China
An assessment of potential improvements in social capital, risk awareness, and preparedness from digital technologies
Spatial accessibility of emergency medical services under inclement weather: a case study in Beijing, China
Review article: Current approaches and critical issues in multi-risk recovery planning of urban areas exposed to natural hazards
Estimating emergency costs for earthquakes and floods in Central Asia based on modelled losses
Compound flood impacts from Hurricane Sandy on New York City in climate-driven storylines
Regional-scale landslide risk assessment in Central Asia
Cost estimation for the monitoring instrumentation of landslide early warning systems
The role of response efficacy and self-efficacy in disaster preparedness actions for vulnerable households
Scientists as storytellers: the explanatory power of stories told about environmental crises
Back analysis of a building collapse under snow and rain loads in a Mediterranean area
Simulating multi-hazard event sets for life cycle consequence analysis
Assessment of building damage and risk under extreme flood scenarios in Shanghai
Micro business participation in collective flood adaptation. Lessons from scenario-based analysis in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
Mangrove ecosystem properties regulate high water levels in a river delta
Analysis of flood warning and evacuation efficiency by comparing damage and life-loss estimates with real consequences related to the São Francisco tailings dam failure in Brazil
Multisectoral analysis of drought impacts and management responses to the 2008–2015 record drought in the Colorado Basin, Texas: A blueprint for regional multisectoral drought impact assessment
Analysis of the effects of urban micro-scale vulnerabilities on tsunami evacuation using and Agent-Based model. Case study in the city of Iquique, Chile
Criteria-based visualization design for hazard maps
Low-regret climate change adaptation in coastal megacities – evaluating large-scale flood protection and small-scale rainwater detention measures for Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
Modeling compound flood risk and risk reduction using a globally applicable framework: a pilot in the Sofala province of Mozambique
Scenario-based multi-risk assessment from existing single-hazard vulnerability models. An application to consecutive earthquakes and tsunamis in Lima, Peru
Using machine learning algorithms to identify predictors of social vulnerability in the event of a hazard: Istanbul case study
Large-scale risk assessment on snow avalanche hazard in alpine regions
Unveiling Transboundary Challenges in The Ciliwung River Flood Management
Probabilistic and machine learning methods for uncertainty quantification in power outage prediction due to extreme events
Public intention to participate in sustainable geohazard mitigation: an empirical study based on an extended theory of planned behavior
An assessment of short–medium-term interventions using CAESAR-Lisflood in a post-earthquake mountainous area
Review article: Design and evaluation of weather index insurance for multi-hazard resilience and food insecurity
Design and application of a multi-hazard risk rapid assessment questionnaire for hill communities in the Indian Himalayan region
Identifying the drivers of private flood precautionary measures in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
Performance of the flood warning system in Germany in July 2021 – insights from affected residents
Differences in volcanic risk perception among Goma's population before the Nyiragongo eruption of May 2021, Virunga volcanic province (DR Congo)
Empirical tsunami fragility modelling for hierarchical damage levels
Quantifying the potential benefits of risk-mitigation strategies on future flood losses in Kathmandu Valley, Nepal
Review article: Potential of nature-based solutions to mitigate hydro-meteorological risks in sub-Saharan Africa
Invited perspectives: An insurer's perspective on the knowns and unknowns in natural hazard risk modelling
Classifying marine faults for hazard assessment offshore Israel: a new approach based on fault size and vertical displacement
Assessing agriculture's vulnerability to drought in European pre-Alpine regions
Tsunami risk perception in central and southern Italy
Brief communication: Critical infrastructure impacts of the 2021 mid-July western European flood event
Multi-scenario urban flood risk assessment by integrating future land use change models and hydrodynamic models
Laurine A. de Wolf, Peter J. Robinson, W. J. Wouter Botzen, Toon Haer, Jantsje M. Mol, and Jeffrey Czajkowski
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1303–1318, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1303-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1303-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
An understanding of flood risk perceptions may aid in improving flood risk communication. We conducted a survey among 871 coastal residents in Florida who were threatened to be flooded by Hurricane Dorian. Part of the original sample was resurveyed after Dorian failed to make landfall to investigate changes in risk perception. We find a strong influence of previous flood experience and social norms on flood risk perceptions. Furthermore, flood risk perceptions declined after the near-miss event.
Christian Geiß, Jana Maier, Emily So, Elisabeth Schoepfer, Sven Harig, Juan Camilo Gómez Zapata, and Yue Zhu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1051–1064, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1051-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1051-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We establish a model of future geospatial population distributions to quantify the number of people living in earthquake-prone and tsunami-prone areas of Lima and Callao, Peru, for the year 2035. Areas of high earthquake intensity will experience a population growth of almost 30 %. The population in the tsunami inundation area is estimated to grow by more than 60 %. Uncovering those relations can help urban planners and policymakers to develop effective risk mitigation strategies.
Chiara Scaini, Alberto Tamaro, Baurzhan Adilkhan, Satbek Sarzhanov, Vakhitkhan Ismailov, Ruslan Umaraliev, Mustafo Safarov, Vladimir Belikov, Japar Karayev, and Ettore Faga
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 929–945, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-929-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-929-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Central Asia is highly exposed to multiple hazards, including earthquakes, floods and landslides, for which risk reduction strategies are currently under development. We provide a regional-scale database of assets at risk, including population and residential buildings, based on existing information and recent data collected for each Central Asian country. The population and number of buildings are also estimated for the year 2080 to support the definition of disaster risk reduction strategies.
Tianyang Yu, Banghua Lu, Hui Jiang, and Zhi Liu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 803–822, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-803-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-803-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
A basic database for seismic risk assessment of 720 urban water supply systems in mainland China is established. The parameters of the seismic risk curves of 720 cities are calculated. The seismic fragility curves of various facilities in the water supply system are given based on the logarithmic normal distribution model. The expected seismic loss and the expected loss rate index of 720 urban water supply systems in mainland China in the medium and long term are given.
Connor Darlington, Jonathan Raikes, Daniel Henstra, Jason Thistlethwaite, and Emma K. Raven
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 699–714, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-699-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-699-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The impacts of climate change on local floods require precise maps that clearly demarcate changes to flood exposure; however, most maps lack important considerations that reduce their utility in policy and decision-making. This article presents a new approach to identifying current and projected flood exposure using a 5 m model. The results highlight advancements in the mapping of flood exposure with implications for flood risk management.
Chiara Arrighi and Alessio Domeneghetti
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 673–679, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-673-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-673-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In this communication, we reflect on environmental flood impacts by analysing the reported environmental consequences of the 2023 Emilia-Romagna floods. The most frequently reported damage involves water resources and water-related ecosystems. Indirect effects in time and space, intrinsic recovery capacity, cascade impacts on socio-economic systems, and the lack of established monitoring activities appear to be the most challenging aspects for future research.
Chiara Scaini, Alberto Tamaro, Baurzhan Adilkhan, Satbek Sarzhanov, Zukhritdin Ergashev, Ruslan Umaraliev, Mustafo Safarov, Vladimir Belikov, Japar Karayev, and Ettore Fagà
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 355–373, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-355-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-355-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Central Asia is prone to multiple hazards such as floods, landslides and earthquakes, which can affect a wide range of assets at risk. We develop the first regionally consistent database of assets at risk for non-residential buildings, transportation and croplands in Central Asia. The database combines global and regional data sources and country-based information and supports the development of regional-scale disaster risk reduction strategies for the Central Asia region.
Mersedeh Kooshki Forooshani, Marc van den Homberg, Kyriaki Kalimeri, Andreas Kaltenbrunner, Yelena Mejova, Leonardo Milano, Pauline Ndirangu, Daniela Paolotti, Aklilu Teklesadik, and Monica L. Turner
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 309–329, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-309-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-309-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We improve an existing impact forecasting model for the Philippines by transforming the target variable (percentage of damaged houses) to a fine grid, using only features which are globally available. We show that our two-stage model conserves the performance of the original and even has the potential to introduce savings in anticipatory action resources. Such model generalizability is important in increasing the applicability of such tools around the world.
Jia Xu, Makoto Takahashi, and Weifu Li
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 179–197, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-179-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-179-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Through the development of micro-individual social vulnerability indicators and cluster analysis, this study assessed the level of social vulnerability of 599 residents from 11 communities in the Hongshan District of Wuhan. The findings reveal three levels of social vulnerability: high, medium, and low. Quantitative assessments offer specific comparisons between distinct units, and the results indicate that different types of communities have significant differences in social vulnerability.
Tommaso Piseddu, Mathilda Englund, and Karina Barquet
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 145–161, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-145-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-145-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Contributions to social capital, risk awareness, and preparedness constitute the parameters to test applications in disaster risk management. We propose an evaluation of four of these: mobile positioning data, social media crowdsourcing, drones, and satellite imaging. The analysis grants the opportunity to investigate how different methods to evaluate surveys' results may influence final preferences. We find that the different assumptions on which these methods rely deliver diverging results.
Yuting Zhang, Kai Liu, Xiaoyong Ni, Ming Wang, Jianchun Zheng, Mengting Liu, and Dapeng Yu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 63–77, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-63-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-63-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This article is aimed at developing a method to quantify the influence of inclement weather on the accessibility of emergency medical services (EMSs) in Beijing, China, and identifying the vulnerable areas that could not get timely EMSs under inclement weather. We found that inclement weather could reduce the accessibility of EMSs by up to 40%. Furthermore, towns with lower baseline EMSs accessibility are more vulnerable when inclement weather occurs.
Soheil Mohammadi, Silvia De Angeli, Giorgio Boni, Francesca Pirlone, and Serena Cattari
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 79–107, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-79-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-79-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This paper critically reviews disaster recovery literature from a multi-risk perspective. Identified key challenges encompass the lack of approaches integrating physical reconstruction and socio-economic recovery, the neglect of multi-risk interactions, the limited exploration of recovery from a pre-disaster planning perspective, and the low consideration of disaster recovery as a non-linear process in which communities need change over time.
Emilio Berny, Carlos Avelar, Mario A. Salgado-Gálvez, and Mario Ordaz
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 53–62, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-53-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-53-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This paper presents a methodology to estimate the total emergency costs based on modelled damages for earthquakes and floods, together with the demographic and building characteristics of the study area. The methodology has been applied in five countries in central Asia, the first time that these estimates are made available for the study area and are intended to be useful for regional and local stakeholders and decision makers.
Henrique M. D. Goulart, Irene Benito Lazaro, Linda van Garderen, Karin van der Wiel, Dewi Le Bars, Elco Koks, and Bart van den Hurk
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 29–45, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-29-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-29-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We explore how Hurricane Sandy (2012) could flood New York City under different scenarios, including climate change and internal variability. We find that sea level rise can quadruple coastal flood volumes, while changes in Sandy's landfall location can double flood volumes. Our results show the need for diverse scenarios that include climate change and internal variability and for integrating climate information into a modelling framework, offering insights for high-impact event assessments.
Francesco Caleca, Chiara Scaini, William Frodella, and Veronica Tofani
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 13–27, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-13-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-13-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Landslide risk analysis is a powerful tool because it allows us to identify where physical and economic losses could occur due to a landslide event. The purpose of our work was to provide the first regional-scale analysis of landslide risk for central Asia, and it represents an advanced step in the field of risk analysis for very large areas. Our findings show, per square kilometer, a total risk of about USD 3.9 billion and a mean risk of USD 0.6 million.
Marta Sapena, Moritz Gamperl, Marlene Kühnl, Carolina Garcia-Londoño, John Singer, and Hannes Taubenböck
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3913–3930, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3913-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3913-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
A new approach for the deployment of landslide early warning systems (LEWSs) is proposed. We combine data-driven landslide susceptibility mapping and population maps to identify exposed locations. We estimate the cost of monitoring sensors and demonstrate that LEWSs could be installed with a budget ranging from EUR 5 to EUR 41 per person in Medellín, Colombia. We provide recommendations for stakeholders and outline the challenges and opportunities for successful LEWS implementation.
Dong Qiu, Binglin Lv, Yuepeng Cui, and Zexiong Zhan
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3789–3803, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3789-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3789-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This paper divides preparedness behavior into minimal and adequate preparedness. In addition to studying the main factors that promote families' disaster preparedness, we also study the moderating effects of response efficacy and self-efficacy on preparedness actions by vulnerable families. Based on the findings of this study, policymakers can target interventions and programs that can be designed to remedy the current lack of disaster preparedness education for vulnerable families.
Jenni Barclay, Richie Robertson, and M. Teresa Armijos
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3603–3615, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3603-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3603-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Stories create avenues for sharing the meanings and social implications of scientific knowledge. We explore their value when told between scientists during a volcanic eruption. They are important vehicles for understanding how risk is generated during volcanic eruptions and create new knowledge about these interactions. Stories explore how risk is negotiated when scientific information is ambiguous or uncertain, identify cause and effect, and rationalize the emotional intensity of a crisis.
Isabelle Ousset, Guillaume Evin, Damien Raynaud, and Thierry Faug
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3509–3523, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3509-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3509-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This paper deals with an exceptional snow and rain event in a Mediterranean region of France which is usually not prone to heavy snowfall and its consequences on a particular building that collapsed completely. Independent analyses of the meteorological episode are carried out, and the response of the building to different snow and rain loads is confronted to identify the main critical factors that led to the collapse.
Leandro Iannacone, Kenneth Otárola, Roberto Gentile, and Carmine Galasso
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2540, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2540, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The paper presents a review of the available classifications for hazard interactions in a multi-hazard context, and it incorporates such classifications from a modeling perspective. The outcome is a sequential Monte Carlo approach enabling efficient simulation of multi-hazard event sets (i.e., sequences of events throughout the life cycle). These event sets can then be integrated into frameworks for the quantification of consequences for the purposes of Life Cycle Consequence (LCCon) Analysis.
Jiachang Tu, Jiahong Wen, Liang Emlyn Yang, Andrea Reimuth, Stephen S. Young, Min Zhang, Luyang Wang, and Matthias Garschagen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3247–3260, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3247-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3247-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This paper evaluates the flood risk and the resulting patterns in buildings following low-probability, high-impact flood scenarios by a risk analysis chain in Shanghai. The results provide a benchmark and also a clear future for buildings with respect to flood risks in Shanghai. This study links directly to disaster risk management, e.g., the Shanghai Master Plan. We also discussed different potential adaptation options for flood risk management.
Javier Revilla Diez, Roxana Leitold, Van Tran, and Matthias Garschagen
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2185, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2185, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Micro-businesses, often overlooked in adaptation research, show surprising willingness to contribute to collective adaptation despite limited finances and local support. Based on a study in Ho-Chi-Minh City in Vietnam, approximately 70 % are ready for awareness campaigns, and 39 % would provide financial support if costs were shared. These findings underscore the need for increased involvement of micro-businesses in local adaptation plans to enhance collective adaptive capacity.
Ignace Pelckmans, Jean-Philippe Belliard, Luis E. Dominguez-Granda, Cornelis Slobbe, Stijn Temmerman, and Olivier Gourgue
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3169–3183, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3169-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3169-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Mangroves are increasingly recognized as a coastal protection against extreme sea levels. Their effectiveness in doing so, however, is still poorly understood, as mangroves are typically located in tropical countries where data on mangrove vegetation and topography properties are often scarce. Through a modelling study, we identified the degree of channelization and the mangrove forest floor topography as the key properties for regulating high water levels in a tropical delta.
André Felipe Rocha Silva and Julian Cardoso Eleutério
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3095–3110, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3095-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3095-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This work evaluates the application of flood consequence models through their application in a real case related to a tailings dam failure. Furthermore, we simulated the implementation of less efficient alert systems on life-loss alleviation. The results revealed that the models represented the event well and were able to estimate the relevance of implementing efficient alert systems. They highlight that their use may be an important tool for new regulations for dam safety legislation.
Stephen B. Ferencz, Ning Sun, Sean Turner, Brian A. Smith, and Jennie S. Rice
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-149, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-149, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
Drought has long posed an existential threat to society. Population growth and economic development, and the potential for more extreme and prolonged droughts due to climate change pose significant water security challenges. Better understanding the impacts and adaptive responses resulting from extreme drought can aid adaptive planning. The 2008 – 2015 record drought in the Colorado Basin, Texas, United States is used as a case study to assess impacts and responses to severe drought.
Rodrigo Cienfuegos, Gonzalo Álvarez, Jorge León, Alejandro Urrutia, and Sebastián Castro
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-139, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-139, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
This study carries out a detailed analysis of possible tsunami evacuation scenarios in the city of Iquique in Chile. Evacuation and tsunami modeling are integrated, allowing for an estimation of the potential number of people that the inundation may reach under different scenarios, by emulating the dynamics and behavior of the population and the decision making regarding the starting time of the evacuation.
Max Schneider, Fabrice Cotton, and Pia-Johanna Schweizer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2505–2521, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2505-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2505-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Hazard maps are fundamental to earthquake risk reduction, but research is missing on how to design them. We review the visualization literature to identify evidence-based criteria for color and classification schemes for hazard maps. We implement these for the German seismic hazard map, focusing on communicating four properties of seismic hazard. Our evaluation finds that the redesigned map successfully communicates seismic hazard in Germany, improving on the baseline map for two key properties.
Leon Scheiber, Christoph Gabriel David, Mazen Hoballah Jalloul, Jan Visscher, Hong Quan Nguyen, Roxana Leitold, Javier Revilla Diez, and Torsten Schlurmann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2333–2347, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2333-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2333-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Like many other megacities in low-elevation coastal zones, Ho Chi Minh City in southern Vietnam suffers from the convoluting impact of changing environmental stressors and rapid urbanization. This study assesses quantitative hydro-numerical results against the background of the low-regret paradigm for (1) a large-scale flood protection scheme as currently constructed and (2) the widespread implementation of small-scale rainwater detention as envisioned in the Chinese Sponge City Program.
Dirk Eilander, Anaïs Couasnon, Frederiek C. Sperna Weiland, Willem Ligtvoet, Arno Bouwman, Hessel C. Winsemius, and Philip J. Ward
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2251–2272, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2251-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2251-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This study presents a framework for assessing compound flood risk using hydrodynamic, impact, and statistical modeling. A pilot in Mozambique shows the importance of accounting for compound events in risk assessments. We also show how the framework can be used to assess the effectiveness of different risk reduction measures. As the framework is based on global datasets and is largely automated, it can easily be applied in other areas for first-order assessments of compound flood risk.
Juan Camilo Gómez Zapata, Massimiliano Pittore, Nils Brinckmann, Juan Lizarazo-Marriaga, Sergio Medina, Nicola Tarque, and Fabrice Cotton
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2203–2228, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2203-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2203-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
To investigate cumulative damage on extended building portfolios, we propose an alternative and modular method to probabilistically integrate sets of single-hazard vulnerability models that are being constantly developed by experts from various research fields to be used within a multi-risk context. We demonstrate its application by assessing the economic losses expected for the residential building stock of Lima, Peru, a megacity commonly exposed to consecutive earthquake and tsunami scenarios.
Oya Kalaycıoğlu, Serhat Emre Akhanlı, Emin Yahya Menteşe, Mehmet Kalaycıoğlu, and Sibel Kalaycıoğlu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2133–2156, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2133-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2133-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The associations between household characteristics and hazard-related social vulnerability in Istanbul, Türkiye, were assessed using machine learning techniques. The results indicated that less educated households with no social security and job insecurity that live in squatter houses are at a higher risk of social vulnerability. We present the findings in an open-access R Shiny web application, which can serve as a guidance for identifying the target groups in the interest of risk mitigation.
Gregor Ortner, Michael Bründl, Chahan M. Kropf, Thomas Röösli, Yves Bühler, and David N. Bresch
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2089–2110, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2089-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2089-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This paper presents a new approach to assess avalanche risk on a large scale in mountainous regions. It combines a large-scale avalanche modeling method with a state-of-the-art probabilistic risk tool. Over 40 000 individual avalanches were simulated, and a building dataset with over 13 000 single buildings was investigated. With this new method, risk hotspots can be identified and surveyed. This enables current and future risk analysis to assist decision makers in risk reduction and adaptation.
Harkunti Pertiwi Rahayu, Khonsa Indana Zulfa, Dewi Nurhasanah, Richard Haigh, Dilanthi Amaratunga, and In In Wahdiny
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-85, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-85, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
Transboundary river management for inter-city or inter province become very critical issue due to the ego sectoral and lack of responsibility sharing. This paper has recognized the most strategic flood risk driver from key stakeholder perspective.
Prateek Arora and Luis Ceferino
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1665–1683, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1665-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1665-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Power outage models can help utilities manage risks for outages from hurricanes. Our article reviews the existing outage models during hurricanes and highlights their strengths and limitations. Existing models can give erroneous estimates with outage predictions larger than the number of customers, can struggle with predictions for catastrophic hurricanes, and do not adequately represent infrastructure failure's uncertainties. We suggest models for the future that can overcome these challenges.
Huige Xing, Ting Que, Yuxin Wu, Shiyu Hu, Haibo Li, Hongyang Li, Martin Skitmore, and Nima Talebian
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1529–1547, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1529-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1529-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Disaster risk reduction requires public power. The aim of this study is to investigate the factors influencing the public's intention to participate in disaster risk reduction. An empirical study was conducted using structural equation modeling data analysis methods. The findings show that public attitudes, perceptions of those around them, ability to participate, and sense of participation are important factors.
Di Wang, Ming Wang, Kai Liu, and Jun Xie
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1409–1423, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1409-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1409-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The short–medium-term intervention effect on the post-earthquake area was analysed by simulations in different scenarios. The sediment transport patterns varied in different sub-regions, and the relative effectiveness in different scenarios changed over time with a general downward trend, where the steady stage implicated the scenario with more facilities performing better in controlling sediment output. Therefore, the simulation methods could support optimal rehabilitation strategies.
Marcos Roberto Benso, Gabriela Chiquito Gesualdo, Roberto Fray Silva, Greicelene Jesus Silva, Luis Miguel Castillo Rápalo, Fabricio Alonso Richmond Navarro, Patricia Angélica Alves Marques, José Antônio Marengo, and Eduardo Mario Mendiondo
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1335–1354, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1335-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1335-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This article is about how farmers can better protect themselves from disasters like droughts, extreme temperatures, and floods. The authors suggest that one way to do this is by offering insurance contracts that cover these different types of disasters. By having this insurance, farmers can receive financial support and recover more quickly. The article elicits different ideas about how to design this type of insurance and suggests ways to make it better.
Shivani Chouhan and Mahua Mukherjee
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1267–1286, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1267-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1267-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The Himalayas are prone to multi-hazards. To minimise loss, proper planning and execution are necessary. Data collection is the basis of any risk assessment process. This enhanced survey form is easy to understand and pictorial and identifies high-risk components of any building (structural and non-structural) surrounded by multi-hazards. Its results can help to utilise the budget in a prioritised way. A SWOT (strengths, weaknesses, threats and opportunities) analysis has been performed.
Thulasi Vishwanath Harish, Nivedita Sairam, Liang Emlyn Yang, Matthias Garschagen, and Heidi Kreibich
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1125–1138, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1125-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1125-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Coastal Asian cities are becoming more vulnerable to flooding. In this study we analyse the data collected from flood-prone houses in Ho Chi Minh City to identify what motivates the households to adopt flood precautionary measures. The results revealed that educating the households about the available flood precautionary measures and communicating the flood protection measures taken by the government encourage the households to adopt measures without having to experience multiple flood events.
Annegret H. Thieken, Philip Bubeck, Anna Heidenreich, Jennifer von Keyserlingk, Lisa Dillenardt, and Antje Otto
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 973–990, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-973-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-973-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In July 2021 intense rainfall caused devastating floods in western Europe with 184 fatalities in the German federal states of North Rhine-Westphalia (NW) and Rhineland-Palatinate (RP), calling their warning system into question. An online survey revealed that 35 % of respondents from NW and 29 % from RP did not receive any warning. Many of those who were warned did not expect severe flooding, nor did they know how to react. The study provides entry points for improving Germany's warning system.
Blaise Mafuko Nyandwi, Matthieu Kervyn, François Muhashy Habiyaremye, François Kervyn, and Caroline Michellier
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 933–953, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-933-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-933-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Risk perception involves the processes of collecting, selecting and interpreting signals about the uncertain impacts of hazards. It may contribute to improving risk communication and motivating the protective behaviour of the population living near volcanoes. Our work describes the spatial variation and factors influencing volcanic risk perception of 2204 adults of Goma exposed to Nyiragongo. It contributes to providing a case study for risk perception understanding in the Global South.
Fatemeh Jalayer, Hossein Ebrahimian, Konstantinos Trevlopoulos, and Brendon Bradley
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 909–931, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-909-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-909-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Assessing tsunami fragility and the related uncertainties is crucial in the evaluation of incurred losses. Empirical fragility modelling is based on observed tsunami intensity and damage data. Fragility curves for hierarchical damage levels are distinguished by their laminar shape; that is, the curves should not intersect. However, this condition is not satisfied automatically. We present a workflow for hierarchical fragility modelling, uncertainty propagation and fragility model selection.
Carlos Mesta, Gemma Cremen, and Carmine Galasso
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 711–731, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-711-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-711-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Flood risk is expected to increase in many regions worldwide due to rapid urbanization and climate change. The benefits of risk-mitigation measures remain inadequately quantified for potential future events in some multi-hazard-prone areas such as Kathmandu Valley (KV), Nepal, which this paper addresses. The analysis involves modeling two flood occurrence scenarios and using four residential exposure inventories representing current urban system or near-future development trajectories for KV.
Kirk B. Enu, Aude Zingraff-Hamed, Mohammad A. Rahman, Lindsay C. Stringer, and Stephan Pauleit
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 481–505, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-481-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-481-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In sub-Saharan Africa, there is reported uptake of at least one nature-based solution (NBS) in 71 % of urban areas in the region for mitigating hydro-meteorological risks. These NBSs are implemented where risks exist but not where they are most severe. With these NBSs providing multiple ecosystem services and four out of every five NBSs creating livelihood opportunities, NBSs can help address major development challenges in the region, such as water and food insecurity and unemployment.
Madeleine-Sophie Déroche
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 251–259, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-251-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-251-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This paper proves the need to conduct an in-depth review of the existing loss modelling framework and makes it clear that only a transdisciplinary effort will be up to the challenge of building global loss models. These two factors are essential to capture the interactions and increasing complexity of the three risk drivers (exposure, hazard, and vulnerability), thus enabling insurers to anticipate and be equipped to face the far-ranging impacts of climate change and other natural events.
May Laor and Zohar Gvirtzman
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 139–158, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-139-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-139-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This study aims to provide a practical and relatively fast solution for early-stage planning of marine infrastructure that must cross a faulted zone. Instead of investing huge efforts in finding whether each specific fault meets a pre-defined criterion of activeness, we map the subsurface and determine the levels of fault hazard based on the amount of displacement and the fault's plane size. This allows for choosing the least problematic infrastructure routes at an early planning stage.
Ruth Stephan, Stefano Terzi, Mathilde Erfurt, Silvia Cocuccioni, Kerstin Stahl, and Marc Zebisch
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 45–64, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-45-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-45-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This study maps agriculture's vulnerability to drought in the European pre-Alpine regions of Thurgau (CH) and Podravska (SI). We combine region-specific knowledge with quantitative data mapping; experts of the study regions, far apart, identified a few common but more region-specific factors that we integrated in two vulnerability scenarios. We highlight the benefits of the participatory approach in improving the quantitative results and closing the gap between science and practitioners.
Lorenzo Cugliari, Massimo Crescimbene, Federica La Longa, Andrea Cerase, Alessandro Amato, and Loredana Cerbara
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 4119–4138, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-4119-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-4119-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The Tsunami Alert Centre of the National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology (CAT-INGV) has been promoting the study of tsunami risk perception in Italy since 2018. A total of 7342 questionnaires were collected in three survey phases (2018, 2020, 2021). In this work we present the main results of the three survey phases, with a comparison among the eight surveyed regions and between the coastal regions and some coastal metropolitan cities involved in the survey.
Elco E. Koks, Kees C. H. van Ginkel, Margreet J. E. van Marle, and Anne Lemnitzer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3831–3838, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3831-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3831-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This study provides an overview of the impacts to critical infrastructure and how recovery has progressed after the July 2021 flood event in Germany, Belgium and the Netherlands. The results show that Germany and Belgium were particularly affected, with many infrastructure assets severely damaged or completely destroyed. This study helps to better understand how infrastructure can be affected by flooding and can be used for validation purposes for future studies.
Qinke Sun, Jiayi Fang, Xuewei Dang, Kepeng Xu, Yongqiang Fang, Xia Li, and Min Liu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3815–3829, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3815-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3815-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Flooding by extreme weather events and human activities can lead to catastrophic impacts in coastal areas. The research illustrates the importance of assessing the performance of different future urban development scenarios in response to climate change, and the simulation study of urban risks will prove to decision makers that incorporating disaster prevention measures into urban development plans will help reduce disaster losses and improve the ability of urban systems to respond to floods.
Cited articles
Adamtey, N., Musyoka, M. W., Zundel, C., Cobo, J. G., Karanja, E., Fiaboe, K. K. M., Muriuki, A., Mucheru-Muna, M., Vanlauwe, B., Berset, E., Messmer, M. M., Gattinger, A., Bhullar, G. S., Cadisch, G., Fliessbach, A., Mäder, P., Niggli, U., and Foster, D.: Productivity, profitability and partial nutrient balance in maize-based conventional and organic farming systems in Kenya, Agric. Ecosyst. Environ., 235, 61–79, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agee.2016.10.001, 2016.
Adger, W. N.: Vulnerability, Global Environ. Change, 16, 268–281,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2006.02.006, 2006.
Aerts, J. C. J. H. J. H., Botzen, W. J., Clarke, K. C., Cutter, S. L., Hall, J. W., Merz, B., Michel-Kerjan, E., Mysiak, J., Surminski, S., and Kunreuther, H.: Integrating human behaviour dynamics into flood disaster risk assessment, Nat. Clim. Change, 8, 193–199, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018-0085-1, 2018.
Ailliot, P., Allard, D., Monbet, V., Naveau, P., Ailliot, P., Allard, D.,
Monbet, V., and Naveau, P.: Stochastic weather generators: an overview of
weather type models Titre: Générateurs stochastiques de condition
météorologiques: une revue des modèles à type de temps, J.
la Société Française Stat., 156, 101–113, 2015.
Aker, J. C.: Dial “A” for agriculture: a review of information and communication technologies for agricultural extension in developing countries, Agric. Econ., 42, 631–647, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1574-0862.2011.00545.x, 2011.
Allen, R.: Penman–Monteith Equation, in: Encyclopedia of Soils in the Environment, Elsevier, 180–188, https://doi.org/10.1016/B0-12-348530-4/00399-4, 2005.
Ansah, I. G. K., Oduro, H., and Osae, A. L.: A Comparative Analysis of Profit Efficiency in Maize and Cowpea Production in the Ejura Sekyedumase District of the Ashanti Region, Ghana, Res. Appl. Econ., 6, 106, https://doi.org/10.5296/rae.v6i4.6320, 2014.
Ararso, E., Geremu, T., Ayele, G., Mamo, D., Diriba, A., and Zone, W. H.: Effects of Level Fanya Juu and Fanya Chin Structures on Grain Yield of Maize in Moisture Stress Areas of Daro Labu District, J. Biol. Agricult. Healthcare, 6, 94–98, 2016.
Asfaw, S., Carraro, A., Davis, B., Handa, S., and Seidenfeld, D.: Cash Transfer Programmes for Managing Climate Risk: Evidence from a Randomized Experiment in Zambia, FAO, Rome, 35 pp., 2017.
Barrientos, A.: From Evidence to Action: The Story of Cash Transfers and Impact Evaluation in Sub-Saharan Africa, Edited by Benjamin Davis, Sudhanshu Handa, J. Dev. Stud., 52, 1831–1832, https://doi.org/10.1080/00220388.2016.1222679, 2016.
Barron, J. and Okwach, G.: Run-off water harvesting for dry spell mitigation in maize (Zea mays L.): results from on-farm research in semi-arid Kenya, J. Agricult. Water Manage., 74, 1–21, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agwat.2004.11.002, 2005.
Below, T., Artner, A., Siebert, R., and Seiber, S.: Micro-level Practices to
Adapt to Climate Change for African Small-scale Farmers: a review of selected literature, Discuss. Pap., IFPRI, 0953, 28, 2010.
Berger, T.: Agent-based spatial models applied to agriculture: a simulation tool for technology diffusion, resource use changes and policy analysis, Agric. Econ., 25, 245–260, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0169-5150(01)00082-2, 2001.
Berger, T., Troost, C., Wossen, T., Latynskiy, E., Tesfaye, K., and Gbegbelegbe, S.: Can smallholder farmers adapt to climate variability, and how effective are policy interventions? Agent-based simulation results for Ethiopia, Agric. Econ., 48, 693–706, https://doi.org/10.1111/agec.12367, 2017.
Blair, P. and Buytaert, W.: Socio-hydrological modelling: A review asking “why, what and how?”, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 443–478, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-443-2016, 2016.
Brooks, S., Thompson, J., Odame, H., Kibaara, B., Nderitu, S., Karin, F., and Millstone, E.: Environmental change and maize innovation in Kenya: Exploring pathways in and out of maize, STEPS Work. Pap., 1–75, 2009.
Brown, C., Meeks, R., Hunu, K., and Yu, W.: Hydroclimate risk to economic growth in sub-Saharan Africa, Climatic Change, 106, 621–647, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-010-9956-9, 2011.
Bryan, E., Deressa, T. T., Gbetibouo, G. A., and Ringler, C.: Adaptation to
climate change in Ethiopia and South Africa: options and constraints, Environ. Sci. Policy, 12, 413–426, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2008.11.002, 2009.
Bryan, E., Ringler, C., Okoba, B., Roncoli, C., Silvestri, S., and Herrero,
M.: Adapting agriculture to climate change in Kenya: Household strategies and determinants, J. Environ. Manage., 114, 26–35, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2012.10.036, 2013.
Burton, R. J. F.: The influence of farmer demographic characteristics on
environmental behaviour: A review, J. Environ. Manage., 135, 19–26,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2013.12.005, 2014.
Carrao, H., Naumann, G., and Barbosa, P.: Mapping global patterns of drought risk: An empirical framework based on sub-national estimates of hazard, exposure and vulnerability, Global Environ. Change, 39, 108–124, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.04.012, 2016.
CCAFS: Baseline Indicators for Makueni/Wote in Kenya, East Africa, CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS), Copenhagen, Denmark, 2015.
Cervigni, R. and Morris, M. (Eds.): Confronting Drought in Africa's Drylands: Opportunities for Enhancing Resilience, Africa Development Forum series, World Bank, Washington, D.C., https://doi.org/10.1596/978-1-4648-0817-3, 2016.
Charles, N., Rashid, H., and James, C.: Analysis of determinants of farm-level adaptation measures to climate change in Southern Africa, J. Dev. Agric. Econ., 6, 232–241, https://doi.org/10.5897/JDAE12.0441, 2014.
CIAT and World Bank: Climate-Smart Agriculture in Kenya, CSA Country Profiles for Africa, Asia, and Latin America and the Caribbean Series, The World Bank Group, Washington, D.C., https://cgspace.cgiar.org/handle/10568/69545Washington (last access: May 2021), 2015.
Conway, D., Nicholls, R. J., Brown, S., Tebboth, M. G. L., Adger, W. N.,
Ahmad, B., Biemans, H., Crick, F., Lutz, A. F., De Campos, R. S., Said, M.,
Singh, C., Zaroug, M. A. H., Ludi, E., New, M., and Wester, P.: The need for
bottom-up assessments of climate risks and adaptation in climate-sensitive
regions, Nat. Clim. Change, 9, 503–511, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-019-0502-0, 2019.
D'alessandro, S. P., Caballero, J., Lichte, J., and Simpkin, S.: Kenya Agricultural Risk Assessment, Washington, D.C., https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/23350 (last access: May 2021), 2015.
Deressa, T. T., Hassan, R. M., Ringler, C., Alemu, T., and Yesuf, M.:
Determinants of farmers' choice of adaptation methods to climate change in the Nile Basin of Ethiopia, Global Environ. Change, 19, 248–255,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2009.01.002, 2009.
Deressa, T. T., Hassan, R. M., and Ringler, C.: Perception of and adaptation to climate change by farmers in the Nile basin of Ethiopia, J. Agric. Sci., 149, 23–31, https://doi.org/10.1017/S0021859610000687, 2011.
De Stefano, L., Tánago, I. G., Ballesteros, M., Urquijo, J., Blauhut, V., James, H., and Stahl, K.: Methodological Approach Considering Different Factors Influencing Vulnerability – Pan-European Scale, Technical Report, 128 pp., https://www.academia.edu/14388306/METHODOLOGICAL_APPROACH_CONSIDERING_DIFFERENT_FACTORS_INFLUENCING_VULNERABILITY_PAN_EUROPEAN_SCALE (last access: May 2021), 2015.
Di Baldassarre, G., Martinez, F., Kalantari, Z., and Viglione, A.: Drought
and flood in the Anthropocene: Feedback mechanisms in reservoir operation,
Earth Syst. Dynam., 8, 225–233, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-225-2017, 2017.
Di Falco, S.: Adaptation to climate change in Sub-Saharan agriculture: Assessing the evidence and rethinking the drivers, Eur. Rev. Agricult. Econ., 41, 405–430, https://doi.org/10.1093/erae/jbu014, 2014.
Dobbie, S., Schreckenberg, K., Dyke, J. G., Schaafsma, M., and Balbi, S.: Agent-Based Modelling to Assess Community Food Security and Sustainable Livelihoods, J. Artif. Soc. Soc. Simul., 21, 9, https://doi.org/10.18564/jasss.3639, 2018.
Droogers, P. and Allen, R. G.: Estimating reference evapotranspiration under inaccurate data conditions, Irrig. Drain. Syst., 16, 33–45, https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1015508322413, 2002.
Eiser, J. R., Bostrom, A., Burton, I., Johnston, D. M., McClure, J., Paton,
D., van der Pligt, J., and White, M. P.: Risk interpretation and action: A
conceptual framework for responses to natural hazards, Int. J. Disast. Risk
Reduct., 1, 5–16, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2012.05.002, 2012.
Enfors, E. I. and Gordon, L. J.: Dealing with drought: The challenge of using water system technologies to break dryland poverty traps, Global Environ. Change, 18, 607–616, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2008.07.006, 2008.
Erenstein, O., Kassie, G. T., and Mwangi, W.: Comparative analysis of maize
based livelihoods in drought prone regions of eastern Africa: Adaptation
lessons for climate change, Increasing Agric. Product. Enhancing Food Secur.
Africa New Challenges Oppor., 1–13, https://ccafs.cgiar.org/resources/publications/comparative-analysis-maize-based-livelihoods-drought-prone
-regions (last access: May 2021), 2011.
Eriksen, S. H., Brown, K., and Kelly, M.: The dynamics of vulnerability:
locating coping strategies in Kenya and Tanzania, Geogr. J., 171, 287–305, 2005.
FAO: Farmer field schools on land and water management, 24–29, https://www.fao.org/documents/card/en/c/56bcd1cd-7912-5c89-baa1-ddf1fafd5f6c/ (last access: May 2021), 2008.
Filatova, T., Verburg, P. H., Parker, D. C., and Stannard, C. A.: Spatial agent-based models for socio-ecological systems: Challenges and prospects, Environ. Model. Softw., 45, 1–7, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2013.03.017, 2013.
Floyd, D. L., Prentice-Dunn, S., and Rogers, R. W.: A meta-analysis of research on protection motivation theory, J. Appl. Soc. Psychol., 30,
407–429, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1559-1816.2000.tb02323.x, 2000.
Foster, T., Brozović, N., Butler, A. P., Neale, C. M. U., Raes, D.,
Steduto, P., Fereres, E., and Hsiao, T. C.: AquaCrop-OS: An open source version of FAO's crop water productivity model, Agr. Water Manage., 181,
18–22, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agwat.2016.11.015, 2017.
Funk, C., Peterson, P., Landsfeld, M., Pedreros, D., Verdin, J., Shukla, S., Husak, G., Rowland, J., Harrison, L., Hoell, A., and Michaelsen, J.: The climate hazards infrared precipitation with stations – a new environmental record for monitoring extremes, Sci. Data, 2, 150066, https://doi.org/10.1038/sdata.2015.66, 2015.
Funk, C. C., Nicholson, S. E., and Fink, A.: 3A.6A Moving Beyond the East African Climate Paradox, AMS 99th annual meeting, https://ams.confex.com/ams/2019Annual/webprogram/Paper352397.html (last access: May 2021), 2019.
Gbetibouo, G. A.: Understanding Farmers' Perceptions and Adaptations to
Climate Change and Variability: The Case of the Limpopo Basin, South Africa,
https://www.ifpri.org/publication/understanding-farmers-perceptions-and-adaptations-climate- (last access: May 2021), 2009.
Gebrechorkos, S. H., Hülsmann, S., and Bernhofer, C.: Analysis of climate variability and droughts in East Africa using high-resolution climate data products, Global Planet. Change, 186, 103130, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2020.103130, 2020.
Gebrehiwot, T. and van der Veen, A.: Farmers Prone to Drought Risk: Why Some
Farmers Undertake Farm-Level Risk-Reduction Measures While Others Not?,
Environ. Manage., 55, 588–602, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00267-014-0415-7, 2015.
Gicheru, P. T.: Effects of residue mulch and tillage on soil moisture conservation, Soil Technol., 7, 209–220, https://doi.org/10.1016/0933-3630(94)90022-1, 1994.
Government of the Republic of Kenya: Sector plan for drought risk management and ending drought risk, Drought, Risk Management, and Policy, CRC Press, Nairoibi, https://doi.org/10.1201/b14918, 2013.
Grothmann, T. and Patt, A.: Adaptive capacity and human cognition : The process of individual adaptation to climate change, Global Environ. Change, 15, 199–213, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2005.01.002, 2005.
Guimarães Nobre, G., Davenport, F., Bischiniotis, K., Veldkamp, T., Jongman, B., Funk, C. C., Husak, G., Ward, P. J., and Aerts, J. C. J. H.: Financing agricultural drought risk through ex-ante cash transfers, Sci. Total Environ., 653, 523–535, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.10.406, 2019.
Hailegiorgis, A., Crooks, A., and Cioffi-Revilla, C.: An agent-based model
of rural households' adaptation to climate change, J. Artif. Soc. Soc. Simul., 21, 4, https://doi.org/10.18564/jasss.3812, 2018.
Hartwich, F., Halgin, D., and Monge, M.: How Change Agents and Social Capital Influence the Adoption of Innovations among Small Farmers. Evidence from Social Networks in Rural Bolivia, IFPRI Discussion Paper, 76 ST-How Change Agents and Social Capital Infl pp., ET – 00761, https://doi.org/10.5367/000000008784648889, 2008.
Hassan, S., Antunes, L., and Gilbert, N.: Simulating Interacting Agents and Social Phenomena, edited by: Takadama, K., Cioffi-Revilla, C., and Deffuant, G., Springer, Tokyo, Japan, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-4-431-99781-8, 2010.
Holden, S. T.: Risk Preferences, Shocks and Technology Adoption: Farmers' Responses to Drought Risk, https://www.econstor.eu/handle/10419/242738 (last access: May 2021), 2015.
Huber, R., Bakker, M., Balmann, A., Berger, T., Bithell, M., Brown, C.,
Grêt-Regamey, A., Xiong, H., Le, Q. B., Mack, G., Meyfroidt, P., Millington, J., Müller, B., Polhill, J. G., Sun, Z., Seidl, R., Troost,
C., and Finger, R.: Representation of decision-making in European agricultural agent-based models, Agric. Syst., 167, 143–160,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agsy.2018.09.007, 2018.
Ifejika Speranza, C.: Drought Coping and Adaptation Strategies: Understanding Adaptations to Climate Change in Agro-pastoral Livestock Production in Makueni District, Kenya, Eur. J. Dev. Res., 22, 623–642, https://doi.org/10.1057/ejdr.2010.39, 2010.
Ifejika Speranza, C., Kiteme, B., and Wiesmann, U.: Droughts and famines: The underlying factors and the causal links among agro-pastoral households in semi-arid Makueni district, Kenya, Global Environ. Change, 18, 220–233, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2007.05.001, 2008.
Jager, W.: Using agent-based modelling to explore behavioural dynamics affecting our climate, Curr. Opin. Psychol., 42, 133–139,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.copsyc.2021.06.024, 2021.
Kalnay, E., Kanamitsu, M., Kistler, R., Collins, W., Deaven, D., Gandin, L., Iredell, M., Saha, S., White, G., Woollen, J., Zhu, Y., Chelliah, M., Ebisuzaki, W., Higgins, J., Janowiak, K., Ropelewski, C., Wang, J., Leetmaa, A., Reynolds, R., Jenne, R., and Joseph, D.: 40-Year Reanalysis Project, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 77, 437–470, 1996.
Kariuki, G. M.: Effect of Climate Variability on Output and Yields of Selected Crops in Kenya, Kenyatta University, https://ir-library.ku.ac.ke/bitstream/handle/123456789/17622/Effect of climate variability on output.....pdf?isAllowed=y&sequence=1 (last access: May 2021), 2016.
Kelly, R. A., Jakeman, A. J., Barreteau, O., Borsuk, M. E., ElSawah, S., Hamilton, S. H., Henriksen, H. J., Kuikka, S., Maier, H. R., Rizzoli, A. E., van Delden, H., and Voinov, A. A.: Selecting among five common modelling approaches for integrated environmental assessment and management, Environ. Model. Softw., 47, 159–181, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2013.05.005, 2013.
Keshavarz, M. and Karami, E.: Farmers' pro-environmental behavior under
drought: Application of protection motivation theory, J. Arid Environ., 127,
128–136, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jaridenv.2015.11.010, 2016.
Keshavarz, M., Karami, E., and Zibaei, M.: Adaptation of Iranian farmers to
climate variability and change, Reg. Environ. Change, 14, 1163–1174,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-013-0558-8, 2014.
Khisa, G. V.: People's perception on climate change and its effects on livelihood in Kitui County, Int. J. Dev. Sustain., 7, 70–81, 2018.
Khisa, G. V. and Gladys, K. V.: Rainfall and temperature variability and its effect on food security in Kitui county, Kenya, Int. J. Dev. Sustain., 6, 924–939, 2017.
Khisa, G. V. and Oteng, S. B.: Coping Strategies against Climate Change in Agricultural Production in Kitui District, Kenya, J. Agric. Nat. Resour. Sci., 1, 71–86, 2014.
Kiboi, M. N., Ngetich, K. F., Diels, J., Mucheru-Muna, M., Mugwe, J., and Mugendi, D. N.: Minimum tillage, tied ridging and mulching for better maize yield and yield stability in the Central Highlands of Kenya, Soil Tillage Res., 170, 157–166, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.still.2017.04.001, 2017.
Kitinya, K. T., Onwonga, R. N., Onyango, C., Mbuvi, J. P., and Kironchi, G.:
Climate Change and Variability: Farmers' Perception, Experience and Adaptation Strategies in C in Makueni County, Kenya, Asian J. Agriculut.
Rural Dev., 2, 411–421, 2012.
Kitonyo, O. M., Chemining'wa, G. N., and Muthomi, J. W.: Productivity of farmer-preferred maize varieties intercropped with beans in semi-arid Kenya, Int. J. Agron. Agricult. Res., 3, 6–16, 2013.
Kitui County Integrated report 2013–2017: Republic Of Kenya County Government Of Kitui First County Integrated Development Plan 2013–2017,
Planning for Sustainable Socio-Economic Growth and Development Towards a
Globally Competitive and Prosperous Nation, 424 pp., https://repository.kippra.or.ke/handle/123456789/585?show=full (last access: May 2021), 2017.
Koome, D. N.: Factors Influencing the Adoption of “Zai” Pit Farming Technology To Enhance Food Security: the Case of Makueni County, Kenya By,
University of Nairobi, Nairobi, http://erepository.uonbi.ac.ke/handle/11295/103267 (last access: May 2021), 2017.
Kremmydas, D., Athanasiadis, I. N., and Rozakis, S.: A review of Agent Based
Modeling for agricultural policy evaluation, Agric. Syst., 164, 95–106,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agsy.2018.03.010, 2018.
Kulecho, I. K. and Weatherhead, E. K.: Adoption and experience of low-cost drip irrigation in Kenya, Irrig. Drain., 55, 435–444, https://doi.org/10.1002/ird.261, 2006.
Laatabi, A., Marilleau, N., Nguyen-Huu, T., Hbid, H., Babram, M. A., and Abdellah, M.: ODD+2D: An ODD Based Protocol for Mapping Data to Empirical ABMs, J. Artific. Soc. Social Simul., 21, 9, https://doi.org/10.18564/jasss.3646, 2018.
Lalani, B., Dorward, P., Holloway, G., and Wauters, E.: Smallholder farmers'
motivations for using Conservation Agriculture and the roles of yield, labour and soil fertility in decision making, Agric. Syst., 146, 80–90,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agsy.2016.04.002, 2016.
Le Dang, H., Li, E., Nuberg, I., and Bruwer, J.: Farmers' assessments of
private adaptive measures to climate change and influential factors: A study
in the Mekong Delta, Vietnam, Nat. Hazards, 71, 385–401,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-013-0931-4, 2014.
Lyon, B. and Vigaud, N.: Unraveling East Africa's Climate Paradox, AGU, 265–281, https://doi.org/10.1002/9781119068020.ch16, 2017.
Maddux, J. E. and Rogers, R. W.: Protection motivation and self-efficacy: A
revised theory of fear appeals and attitude change, J. Exp. Soc. Psychol., 19, 469–479, https://doi.org/10.1016/0022-1031(83)90023-9, 1983.
Makoti, A. and Waswa, F.: Rural Community Coping Strategies with Drought-Driven Food Insecurity in Kwale County, Kenya, J. Food Secur., 3, 87–93, https://doi.org/10.12691/jfs-3-3-4, 2015.
Mandleni, B. and Anim, F. D. K.: Climate Change Awareness and Decision on
Adaptation Measures by Livestock Farmers in South Africa, J. Agric. Sci., 3,
1–26, https://doi.org/10.5539/jas.v3n3p258, 2011.
Mango, N., Kristjanson, P., Krishna, A., Radeny, M., Omolo, A., and Arunga, M.: Why is it some households fall into poverty at the same time others are escaping poverty? Evidence from Kenya, Nairobi, https://www.ilri.org/publications/why-it-some-households-fall-poverty-same-time-others-are- (last access: May 2021), 2009.
Matthews, R. B., Gilbert, N. G., Roach, A., Polhill, J. G., and Gotts, N. M.: Agent-based land-use models: A review of applications, Landscape Ecol., 22, 1447–1459, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10980-007-9135-1, 2007.
Mehan, S., Guo, T., Gitau, M., and Flanagan, D. C.: Comparative Study of Different Stochastic Weather Generators for Long-Term Climate Data Simulation, MDPI Climate, 5, 26, https://doi.org/10.3390/cli5020026, 2017.
Mehryar, S., Sliuzas, R., Schwarz, N., Sharifi, A., and van Maarseveen, M.:
From individual Fuzzy Cognitive Maps to Agent Based Models: Modeling
multi-factorial and multi-stakeholder decision-making for water scarcity, J.
Environ. Manage., 250, 109482, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2019.109482, 2019.
Mo, F., Wang, J.-Y., Xiong, Y.-C., Nguluu, S. N., and Li, F.-M.: Ridge-furrow mulching system in semiarid Kenya: A promising solution to improve soil water availability and maize productivity, Eur. J. Agron., 80, 124–136, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eja.2016.07.005, 2016.
Mosberg, M. and Eriksen, S. H.: Responding to climate variability and change in dryland Kenya: The role of illicit coping strategies in the politics of adaptation, Global Environ. Change, 35, 545–557, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2015.09.006, 2015.
Mude, A., Ouma, R., Steeg, J. van de, Kariuki, J., Opiyo, D., and Tipilda, A.: Kenya Adaptation to Climate Change in the Arid Lands: Anticipating, Adapting to and Coping with Climate Risks in Kenya – Operational Recommendations for KACCAL, ILRI Research Report 18, ILRI – International Livestock Research Institute, Nairobi, 135 pp., https://cgspace.cgiar.org/handle/10568/2186 (last access: May 2021), 2007.
Muhammad, L., Mwabu, D., Mulwa, R., Mwangi, W., Langyintuo, A., and La Rovere, R.: Characterization of Maize Producing Households in Machakos and Makueni Districts in Kenya, 32 pp., https://repository.cimmyt.org/handle/10883/1092 (last access: May 2021), 2010.
Müller, B., Bohn, F., Dreßler, G., Groeneveld, J., Klassert, C., Martin, R., Schlüter, M., Schulze, J., Weise, H., and Schwarz, N.: Describing human decisions in agent-based models – ODD+D, an extension of the ODD protocol, Environ. Model. Softw., 48, 37–48, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2013.06.003, 2013.
Muriu-Ng'ang'a, F. W., Mucheru-Muna, M., Waswa, F., and Mairura, F. S.: Socio-economic factors influencing utilisation of rain water harvesting and saving technologies in Tharaka South, Eastern Kenya, Agr. Water Manage., 194, 150–159, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agwat.2017.09.005, 2017.
Mutunga, E., Ndungu, C., and Muendo, P.: Smallholder Farmers Perceptions and Adaptations to Climate Change and Variability in Kitui County, Kenya, J. Earth Sci. Clim. Change, 8, 389, https://doi.org/10.4172/2157-7617.1000389, 2017.
Muyanga, M.: Insights to rural household food insecurity in Kenya, Uganda, J. Agric. Sci., 9, 791–796, 2004.
Muyanga, M. and Jayne, T. S.: Agricultural Extension in Kenya: Practice and Policy Lessons, Policy, Nairobi, https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/55168/?ln=en (last access: May 2021), 2006.
National Drought Management Authority: Hazard Atlas, 41 pp.,
https://www.rcmrd.org/hazard-atlas-development (last access: May 2021), 2016.
Ngetich, K. F., Raes, D., Shisanya, C. A., Mugwe, J., Mucheru-Muna, M., Mugendi, D. N., and Diels, J.: Calibration and validation of AquaCrop model for maize in sub-humid and semi-arid regions of central highlands of Kenya, in: Third RUFORUM Bienn. Meet., 1525–1548, https://repository.ruforum.org/sites/default/files/Ngetich, K.F. et al..pdf (last access: May 2021), 2012.
Ngigi, S. N.: Technical evaluation and development of low-head drip irrigation systems in Kenya, Irrig. Drain., 57, 450–462, https://doi.org/10.1002/ird.360, 2008.
Ngigi, S. N., Thome, J. N., Waweru, D. W., and Blank, H. G.: Low-cost Irrigation for Poverty Reduction: an Evaluation of Low-head Drip Irrigation technologies in Kenya, Int. Water Manag. Inst., 23–29, 2000.
Niang, I., Ruppel, O. C., Abdrabo, M. A., Essel, A., Lennard, C., Padgham, J., and Urquhart, P.: Africa, in: Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Chapter 22, edited by: Barros, V. R., Field, C. B., Dokken, D. J., Mastrandrea, M. D., Mach, K. J., Bilir, T. E., Chatterjee, M., Ebi, K. L., Estrada, Y. O., Genova, R. C., Girma, B., Kissel, E. S., Levy, A. N., MacCracken, S., Mastrandrea, P. R., and White, L. L., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA, 1199–1266, https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9781107415386.002, 2015.
Nyandiko, N. O., Wakhungu, J., and Oteng'i, S. B.: Analysis of maize yield responses to climate in the arid and semi arid lands of lower eastern Kenya, http://ir-library.mmust.ac.ke:8080/xmlui/handle/190/57 (last access: May 2021), 2014.
Nyariki, D. M. and Wiggins, S.: Household food insecurity in sub‐Saharan Africa: lessons from Kenya, Br. Food J., 99, 249–262, https://doi.org/10.1108/00070709710179363, 1997.
O'Brien, K., Eriksen, S., Nygaard, L. P., and Schjolden, A.: Why different
interpretations of vulnerability matter in climate change discourses, Clim.
Policy, 7, 73–88, https://doi.org/10.1080/14693062.2007.9685639, 2007.
Okumu, O. F.: Small-scale farmers' perception and adaptation measures to
cliamte change in Kitui county, Kenya, University of Nairobi, Nairobi, http://erepository.uonbi.ac.ke/handle/11295/59852 (last access: May 2021), 2013.
Oluoko-Odingo, A. A.: Vulnerability and adaptation to food insecurity and poverty in Kenya, Ann. Assoc. Am. Geogr., 101, 1–20, https://doi.org/10.1080/00045608.2010.532739, 2011.
Omoyo, N. N., Wakhungu, J., and Oteng'i, S.: Effects of climate variability on maize yield in the arid and semi arid lands of lower eastern Kenya, Agric. Food Secur., 4, 8, https://doi.org/10.1186/s40066-015-0028-2, 2015.
Pople, A., Hill, R., Dercon, S., and Brunckhorst, B.: Anticipatory Cash Transfers In Climate Disaster Response About the Centre for Disaster Protection, London, https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.6576-1.1, 2021.
Pouladi, P., Afshar, A., Afshar, M. H., Molajou, A., and Farahmand, H.:
Agent-based socio-hydrological modeling for restoration of Urmia Lake:
Application of theory of planned behavior, J. Hydrol., 576, 736–748,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2019.06.080, 2019.
Rao, K. P. C., Ndegwa, W. G., Kizito, K., and Oyoo, A.: Climate variability and change: Farmer perceptions and understanding of intra-seasonal variability in rainfall and associated risk in semi-arid Kenya, Cambridge University Press, https://doi.org/10.1017/S0014479710000918, 2011.
Recha, J., Kinyangi, J., and Omondi, H.: Climate Related Risks and Opportunities for Agricultural Adaptation in Semi-Arid Eastern Kenya, CGSpace A Repository of Agricultural Research Outputs, Wageningen, 1–40, https://doi.org/10.13140/RG.2.1.2172.8728, 2015.
Republic of Kenya: Ending Drought Emergencies Common Programme Framework, Nairobi, https://www.ndma.go.ke/index.php/resource-center/category/43-ending-drought-emergencies (last access: May 2021), 2015.
Rezaei, A., Salmani, M., Razaghi, F., and Keshavarz, M.: An empirical analysis of effective factors on farmers adaptation behavior in water scarcity conditions in rural communities, Int. Soil Water Conserv. Res., 5,
265–272, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.iswcr.2017.08.002, 2017.
Rogers, E. M.: Diffusion of Innovations (1983), University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign's Academy for Entrepreneurial Leadership Historical Research Reference in Entrepreneurship, https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1496176 (last access: May 2021), 1983.
Rudari, R., Abbashar, A., Conijn, S., De Angeli, S., de Moel, H., Denis-Loupot, A., Ferraris, L., Ghizzoni, T., Gomes, I., Mosquera Calle, D., Mouakkid Soltesova, K., Massabò, M., Njoroge Kabubi, J., Rossi, L., Rossi, L., Schiano Lomoriello, R., Trasforini, E., and Wens, M.: Disaster Risk profile for Kenya, https://www.undrr.org/publication/disaster-risk-profile-kenya#:~:text=This Kenya country risk profile,their likelihood, and associated impacts (last access: May 2021), 2019.
Rutten, M. M. M. E. M.: Shallow wells: a sustainable and inexpensive alternative to boreholes in Kenya, ASC working paper, Leiden, 30 pp., http://hdl.handle.net/1887/9460 (last access: May 2021), 2005.
Schrieks, T., Botzen, W. J. W., Wens, M., Haer, T., and Aerts, J. C. J. H.: Integrating Behavioral Theories in Agent-Based Models for Agricultural Drought Risk Assessments, Front. Water, 3, https://doi.org/10.3389/frwa.2021.686329, 2021.
Sherwood, A.: Community adaptation to climate change: exploring drought and poverty traps in Gituamba location, Kenya, J. Nat. Resour. Policy Res., 5, 147–161, https://doi.org/10.1080/19390459.2013.811857, 2013.
Shikuku, K. M., Winowiecki, L., Twyman, J., Eitzinger, A., Perez, J. G.,
Mwongera, C., and Läderach, P.: Smallholder farmers' attitudes and
determinants of adaptation to climate risks in East Africa, Clim. Risk Manage., 16, 234–245, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crm.2017.03.001, 2017.
Singh, P. K. and Chudasama, H.: Pathways for drought resilient livelihoods
based on people's perception, Climatic Change, 140, 179–193,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-016-1817-8, 2017.
Sivapalan, M., Savenije, H. H. G. G., and Blöschl, G.: Socio-hydrology: A new science of people and water, Hydrol. Process., 26, 1270–1276,
https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.8426, 2012.
Smajgl, A. and Barreteau, O.: Framing options for characterising and parameterising human agents in empirical ABM, Environ. Model. Softw., 93, 29–41, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2017.02.011, 2017.
Smajgl, A., Brown, D. G., Valbuena, D., and Huigen, M. G. A.: Empirical characterisation of agent behaviours in socio-ecological systems, Environ. Model. Softw., 26, 837–844, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2011.02.011, 2011.
Stefanović, J., Yang, H., and Zhou, Y.: Smallholder Farming Systems in Kenya: Climate Change Perception, Adaptation and Determinants, https://www.syngentafoundation.org/file/1541/download?token=fV7f7_ob (last access: May 2021), 2015.
Taberna, A., Filatova, T., Roy, D., and Noll, B.: Tracing resilience, social dynamics and behavioral change: a review of agent-based flood risk models, Socio-Environ. Syst. Model., 2, 17938, https://doi.org/10.18174/sesmo.2020a17938, 2020.
TAPRA – Tegemeo Institute: Tegemeo Agricultural Policy Research Analysis:
Project – Household survey 2004, 1–14, https://www.tegemeo.org/images/_tegemeo_institute/downloads/data/2004-survey-documentation.pdf (last access: January 2021), 2004.
TAPRA – Tegemeo Institute: Tegemeo Agricultural Policy Research Analysis:
Project – Household survey 2007, 1–14, https://www.tegemeo.org/images/_tegemeo_institute/downloads/data/2007_survey_doc_final.pdf (last access: January 2021), 2007.
TAPRA – Tegemeo Institute: Tegemeo Agricultural Policy Research Analysis:
Project – Household survey 2010, 1–14, https://www.tegemeo.org/images/_tegemeo_institute/downloads/data/2010_surveydocumentation.pdf (last access: January 2021), 2010.
Tongruksawattana, S.: Climate shocks and choice of adaptation strategy for
Kenyan maize-legume farmers: Insights from poverty, food security and gender
perspectives, Socioeconomics Program Working Paper, Mexico, DF, 1–34, https://ccafs.cgiar.org/resources/publications/climate-shocks-and-choice-adaptation-strategy-kenyan-maize- (last access: May 2021), 2014.
Tongruksawattana, S. and Wainaina, P.: Climate shock adaptation for Kenyan maize-legume farmers: choice, complementarities and substitutions between strategies, Clim. Dev., 11, 710–722, https://doi.org/10.1080/17565529.2018.1562862, 2019.
UNDP: Climate Risks, Vulnerability and Governance in Kenya: A review, 83 pp., https://www.iisd.org/publications/report/climate-risks-vulnerability-and-governance-kenya-review (last acces: May 2021), 2012.
UNDP, UNCCD, and UNEP: Climate Change in the African Drylands : options and opportunities for adaptation and mitigation, Nairobi, https://portals.iucn.org/library/node/29098 (last access: May 2021), 2009.
UNDRR: GAR – Special Report on Drought 2021, UNDRR, Geneva, https://www.undrr.org/publication/gar-special-report-drought-2021#:~:text=The GAR Special Report on,and cosystems health and wellbeing, last access: May 2021.
van Duinen, R., Filatova, T., Geurts, P., and van der Veen, A.: Coping with
drought risk: empirical analysis of farmers' drought adaptation in the
south-west Netherlands, Reg. Environ. Change, 15, 1081–1093,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-014-0692-y, 2015a.
van Duinen, R., Filatova, T., Geurts, P., and van der Veen, A.: Empirical
Analysis of Farmers' Drought Risk Perception: Objective Factors, Personal
Circumstances, and Social Influence, Risk Anal., 35, 741–755,
https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.12299, 2015b.
van Duinen, R., Filatova, T., Jager, W., and van der Veen, A.: Going beyond
perfect rationality: drought risk, economic choices and the influence of social networks, Ann. Reg. Sci., 57, 335–369, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00168-015-0699-4, 2016.
Van Eeuwijk, M.: How accurate is the Famine Early Warning Systems Network? A Kenyan and Ugandan case study An accuracy assessment of the Famine Early Warning System Network, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Amsterdam, https://www.gfdrr.org/sites/default/files/FinalReport_F4S_ChallengeFund.pdf, last access: May 2021.
Van Oel, P. R. and Van Der Veen, A.: Using agent-based modeling to depict
basin closure in the Naivasha basin, Kenya: A framework of analysis, Procedia Environ. Sci., 7, 32–37, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.proenv.2011.07.007, 2011.
Van Winsen, F., de Mey, Y., Lauwers, L., Van Passel, S., Vancauteren, M., and Wauters, E.: Determinants of risk behaviour: effects of perceived risks and risk attitude on farmer's adoption of risk management strategies, J. Risk Res., 19, 56–78, https://doi.org/10.1080/13669877.2014.940597, 2016.
Viglione, A., Di Baldassarre, G., Brandimarte, L., Kuil, L., Carr, G., Salinas, J. L., Scolobig, A., and Blöschl, G.: Insights from socio-hydrology modelling on dealing with flood risk – Roles of collective memory, risk-taking attitude and trust, J. Hydrol., 518, 71–82, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2014.01.018, 2014.
Villanueva, A. B., Jha, Y., Ogwal-omara, R., Welch, E., Wedajoo, S., and Halewood, M.: Influence of social networks on the adoption of climate smart technologies in East Africa Findings from two surveys and participatory exercises with farmers and local experts, CCAFS Info Note, https://cgspace.cgiar.org/handle/10568/71146 (last access: May 2021), 2016.
Von Neumann, J. and Morgenstern, O.: Theory of games and economic behavior, Princeton University Press, https://psycnet.apa.org/record/1945-00500-000 (last access: May 2021), 1944.
Waldman, K. B., Todd, P. M., Omar, S., Blekking, J. P., Giroux, S. A., Attari, S. Z., Baylis, K., and Evans, T. P.: Agricultural decision making and climate uncertainty in developing countries, Environ. Res. Lett., 15, 113004, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abb909, 2020.
Wamari, J., Isaya, S., Kheng, L., Miriti, J., and Obutiati, E.: Use of Aquacrop Model to Predict Maize Yields under varying Rainfall and Temperature in a Semi-Arid Environment in Kenya, J. Meteorol. Relat. Sci., 6, 26–35, https://doi.org/10.20987/jmrs.08.2012.603, 2007.
Wens, M.: Survey report Kitui, Kenya: Expert evaluation of model setup and preparations of future fieldwork, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam [data set],
https://research.vu.nl/en/publications/survey-report-kitui-kenya-expert-evaluation-of-model-setup- (last access: February 2021), 2018.
Wens, M.: Survey report Kitui, Kenya: Results of a questionaire regardings usbsistence farmers' drought risk and adaptation behaviour, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam [data set],
https://research.vu.nl/en/publications/survey-report-kitui-kenya-results-of-a-questionaire-regardings-us (last access: February 2021), 2019.
Wens, M., Johnson, M. J., Zagaria, C., and Veldkamp, T. I. E.: Integrating
human behavior dynamics into drought risk assessment – A sociohydrologic,
agent-based approach, WIREs Water, 6, e1345, https://doi.org/10.1002/wat2.1345, 2019.
Wens, M., Veldkamp, T. I. E., Mwangi, M., Johnson, J. M., Lasage, R., Haer,
T., and Aerts, J. C. J. H.: Simulating Small-Scale Agricultural Adaptation
Decisions in Response to Drought Risk: An Empirical Agent-Based Model for
Semi-Arid Kenya, Front. Water, 2, 1–21, https://doi.org/10.3389/frwa.2020.00015, 2020.
Wens, M. L. K., Mwangi, M. N., van Loon, A. F., and Aerts, J. C. J. H.:
Complexities of drought adaptive behaviour: Linking theory to data on smallholder farmer adaptation decisions, Int. J. Disast. Risk Reduct., 63,
102435, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2021.102435, 2021.
Wheeler, S., Zuo, A., and Bjornlund, H.: Farmers' climate change beliefs and
adaptation strategies for a water scarce future in Australia, Global Environ.
Change, 23, 537–547, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2012.11.008, 2013.
Wossen, T. and Berger, T.: Climate variability, food security and poverty: Agent-based assessment of policy options for farm households in Northern Ghana, Environ. Sci. Policy, 47, 95–107, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2014.11.009, 2015.
Wossen, T., Berger, T., Mequaninte, T., and Alamirew, B.: Social network effects on the adoption of sustainable natural resource management practices in Ethiopia, Int. J. Sustain. Dev. World Ecol., 20, 477–483, https://doi.org/10.1080/13504509.2013.856048, 2013.
Zagaria, C., Schulp, C. J. E., Zavalloni, M., Viaggi, D., and Verburg, P. H.: Modelling transformational adaptation to climate change among crop farming systems in Romagna, Italy, Agric. Syst., 188, 103024, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agsy.2020.103024, 2021.
Zhang, B., Fu, Z., Wang, J., and Zhang, L.: Farmers' adoption of water-saving irrigation technology alleviates water scarcity in metropolis suburbs: A case study of Beijing, China, Agr. Water Manage., 212, 349–357,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agwat.2018.09.021, 2019.
Short summary
In this paper, we present an application of the empirically calibrated drought risk adaptation model ADOPT for the case of smallholder farmers in the Kenyan drylands. ADOPT is used to evaluate the effect of various top-down drought risk reduction interventions (extension services, early warning systems, ex ante cash transfers, and low credit rates) on individual and community drought risk (adaptation levels, food insecurity, poverty, emergency aid) under different climate change scenarios.
In this paper, we present an application of the empirically calibrated drought risk adaptation...
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint