Articles | Volume 20, issue 3
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-743-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-743-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Real-time probabilistic seismic hazard assessment based on seismicity anomaly
Department of Earth Sciences, National Central University, Taoyuan City 32001, Taiwan, R.O.C.
Hsien-Chi Li
Department of Earth Sciences, National Central University, Taoyuan City 32001, Taiwan, R.O.C.
Ling-Yun Chang
Department of Earth Sciences, National Central University, Taoyuan City 32001, Taiwan, R.O.C.
Zheng-Kai Ye
Department of Earth Sciences, National Central University, Taoyuan City 32001, Taiwan, R.O.C.
Chien-Chih Chen
Department of Earth Sciences, National Central University, Taoyuan City 32001, Taiwan, R.O.C.
Earthquake-Disaster and Risk Evaluation and Management Center, National Central University, Taoyuan City 32001, Taiwan, R.O.C.
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Haoyu Wen, Hong-Jia Chen, Chien-Chih Chen, Massimo Pica Ciamarra, and Siew Ann Cheong
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1931–1954, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1931-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1931-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Recently, there has been growing interest from earth scientists to use the electric field deep underground to forecast earthquakes. We go one step further by using the electric fields, which can be directly measured, to separate/classify time periods with two labels only according to the statistical properties of the electric fields. By checking against historical earthquake records, we found time periods covered by one of the two labels to have significantly more frequent earthquakes.
Yi-Ying Wen, Chien-Chih Chen, Strong Wen, and Wei-Tsen Lu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2022-114, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2022-114, 2022
Manuscript not accepted for further review
Short summary
Short summary
Knowing the spatiotemporial seismicity patterns prior to impending large earthquakes might help to the earthquake hazard assessment. Several recent moderate earthquakes occurred in the various regions of Taiwan, which help to further investigate the spatiotemporal seismic pattern related to the regional tectonic stress. We should pay attention when seismicity decrease of 2.5 < M < 4.5 events around southern Central Range, or the accelerating seismicity of 3 < M < 5 events appears in central Taiwan.
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Short summary
Real-time probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) was developed in consideration of its practicability for daily life and the rate of seismic activity with time. We selected the 2016 Meinong (ML 6.6) and the 2018 Hualien (ML 6.2) earthquakes in Taiwan as examples. The seismic intensity forecasting maps produced by the real-time PSHA facilitated the forecast of the maximum expected seismic intensity for the following 90 d. Compared with real data the maps showed considerable effectiveness.
Real-time probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) was developed in consideration of its...
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