Articles | Volume 20, issue 3
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-743-2020
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-743-2020
Research article
 | 
23 Mar 2020
Research article |  | 23 Mar 2020

Real-time probabilistic seismic hazard assessment based on seismicity anomaly

Yu-Sheng Sun, Hsien-Chi Li, Ling-Yun Chang, Zheng-Kai Ye, and Chien-Chih Chen

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Cited articles

Central Weather Bureau: Seismicity, available at: https://www.cwb.gov.tw/V7e/earthquake/seismic.htm, last access: July 2018a. 
Central Weather Bureau: http://gdms.cwb.gov.tw/index.php, last access: July 2018b. 
Central Weather Bureau: Seismic intensity scale, available at: http://scweb.cwb.gov.tw/en-US/Guidance/FAQdetail/182, last access: 5 March 2020. 
Chang, L.-Y.: A study on an improved pattern informatics method and the soup-of-group model for earthquakes. Doctoral dissertation, Department of Earth Sciences, National Central University, Taiwan, R.O.C., 2018. 
Chang, L.-Y., Chen, C.-C., Wu, Y.-H., Lin, T.-W., Chang, C.-H., and Kan, C.-W.: A Strategy for a Routine Pattern Informatics Operation Applied to Taiwan, Pure Appl. Geophys., 173, 235–244, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00024-015-1079-9, 2016. 
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Real-time probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) was developed in consideration of its practicability for daily life and the rate of seismic activity with time. We selected the 2016 Meinong (ML 6.6) and the 2018 Hualien (ML 6.2) earthquakes in Taiwan as examples. The seismic intensity forecasting maps produced by the real-time PSHA facilitated the forecast of the maximum expected seismic intensity for the following 90 d. Compared with real data the maps showed considerable effectiveness.
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