Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
NHESS
Articles | Volume 20, issue 3
Articles | Volume 20, issue 3
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-743-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-743-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 20, issue 3
Research article
 | 
23 Mar 2020
Research article |  | 23 Mar 2020

Real-time probabilistic seismic hazard assessment based on seismicity anomaly

Yu-Sheng Sun, Hsien-Chi Li, Ling-Yun Chang, Zheng-Kai Ye, and Chien-Chih Chen

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Short summary
Real-time probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) was developed in consideration of its practicability for daily life and the rate of seismic activity with time. We selected the 2016 Meinong (ML 6.6) and the 2018 Hualien (ML 6.2) earthquakes in Taiwan as examples. The seismic intensity forecasting maps produced by the real-time PSHA facilitated the forecast of the maximum expected seismic intensity for the following 90 d. Compared with real data the maps showed considerable effectiveness.
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