Real-time probabilistic seismic hazard assessment based on seismicity anomaly

Sun, Yu-Sheng; Li, Hsien-Chi; Chang, Ling-Yun; Ye, Zheng-Kai; Chen, Chien-Chih

doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-743-2020

Articles | Volume 20, issue 3

https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-743-2020

© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-743-2020

© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Articles | Volume 20, issue 3

Research article

|

23 Mar 2020

Research article |

| 23 Mar 2020

Real-time probabilistic seismic hazard assessment based on seismicity anomaly

Yu-Sheng Sun, Hsien-Chi Li, Ling-Yun Chang, Zheng-Kai Ye, and Chien-Chih Chen

Data sets

Seismicity Central Weather Bureau https://www.cwb.gov.tw/V7e/earthquake/seismic.htm

P-alert data Taiwan Earthquake Research Center (TEC) http://palert.earth.sinica.edu.tw/db/

Short summary

Real-time probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) was developed in consideration of its practicability for daily life and the rate of seismic activity with time. We selected the 2016 Meinong (M_L 6.6) and the 2018 Hualien (M_L 6.2) earthquakes in Taiwan as examples. The seismic intensity forecasting maps produced by the real-time PSHA facilitated the forecast of the maximum expected seismic intensity for the following 90 d. Compared with real data the maps showed considerable effectiveness.