Articles | Volume 20, issue 2
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 567–580, 2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Special issue: Global- and continental-scale risk assessment for natural...
Research article 25 Feb 2020
Research article | 25 Feb 2020
Modelling global tropical cyclone wind footprints
James M. Done et al.
No articles found.
John K. Hillier, Geoffrey R. Saville, Mike J. Smith, Alister J. Scott, Emma K. Raven, Jonathon Gascoigne, Louise J. Slater, Nevil Quinn, Andreas Tsanakas, Claire Souch, Gregor C. Leckebusch, Neil Macdonald, Alice M. Milner, Jennifer Loxton, Rebecca Wilebore, Alexandra Collins, Colin MacKechnie, Jaqui Tweddle, Sarah Moller, MacKenzie Dove, Harry Langford, and Jim Craig
Geosci. Commun., 2, 1–23,Short summary
Worldwide there is intense interest in converting research excellence in universities into commercial success, but there has been scant attention devoted to exactly how individual scientists' workload and incentive structures may be a key barrier to this. Our work reveals the real challenge posed by a time-constrained university culture, better describes how work with business might fit into an academic job, and gives tips on working together in an
user guidefor scientists and (re)insurers.
Stephen Blenkinsop, Hayley J. Fowler, Renaud Barbero, Steven C. Chan, Selma B. Guerreiro, Elizabeth Kendon, Geert Lenderink, Elizabeth Lewis, Xiao-Feng Li, Seth Westra, Lisa Alexander, Richard P. Allan, Peter Berg, Robert J. H. Dunn, Marie Ekström, Jason P. Evans, Greg Holland, Richard Jones, Erik Kjellström, Albert Klein-Tank, Dennis Lettenmaier, Vimal Mishra, Andreas F. Prein, Justin Sheffield, and Mari R. Tye
Adv. Sci. Res., 15, 117–126,Short summary
Measurements of sub-daily (e.g. hourly) rainfall totals are essential if we are to understand short, intense bursts of rainfall that cause flash floods. We might expect the intensity of such events to increase in a warming climate but these are poorly realised in projections of future climate change. The INTENSE project is collating a global dataset of hourly rainfall measurements and linking with new developments in climate models to understand the characteristics and causes of these events.
Related subject area
Atmospheric, Meteorological and Climatological HazardsAre Kenya Meteorological Department heavy rainfall advisories useful for forecast-based early action and early preparedness for flooding?A methodology for attributing the role of climate change in extreme events: a global spectrally nudged storylineA 30 m scale modeling of extreme gusts during Hurricane Irma (2017) landfall on very small mountainous islands in the Lesser AntillesModelling a tropical-like cyclone in the Mediterranean Sea under present and warmer climateExtension of the WRF-Chem volcanic emission preprocessor to integrate complex source terms and evaluation for different emission scenarios of the Grimsvötn 2011 eruptionThe contribution of air temperature and ozone to mortality rates during hot weather episodes in eight German cities during the years 2000 and 2017Predictive modeling of hourly probabilities for weather-related road accidentsAssessing atmospheric moisture effects on heavy precipitation during HyMeX IOP16 using GPS nudging and dynamical downscalingModeling volcanic ash aggregation processes and related impacts on the April–May 2010 eruptions of Eyjafjallajökull volcano with WRF-ChemIntra-annual variability of the Western Mediterranean Oscillation (WeMO) and occurrence of extreme torrential precipitation in Catalonia (NE Iberia)Review article: A comprehensive review of datasets and methodologies employed to produce thunderstorm climatologiesAssessing heat exposure to extreme temperatures in urban areas using the Local Climate Zones classificationSimulating Synthetic Tropical Cyclone Tracks for Statistically Reliable Wind and Pressure EstimationsBias correction of a gauge-based gridded product to improve extreme precipitation analysis in the Yarlung Tsangpo–Brahmaputra River basinAnalysis of the Universal Thermal Climate Index during heat waves in SerbiaBrief Communication: An electrifying atmospheric river – understanding the thunderstorm event in Santa Barbara County during March 2019Spatiotemporal changes of heat waves and extreme temperatures in the main cities of China from 1955 to 2014Ambient conditions prevailing during hail events in central EuropePresent and future changes in winter climate indices relevant for access disruptions in Troms, northern NorwayHydrometeorological droughts in the Miño–Limia–Sil hydrographic demarcation (northwestern Iberian Peninsula): the role of atmospheric driversBrief communication: The role of using precipitation or river discharge data when assessing global coastal compound floodingThe Impact of Drought on Soil Moisture Trends across Brazilian BiomesEstimation of tropical cyclone wind hazards in coastal regions of ChinaRadar-based assessment of hail frequency in EuropeA methodology to conduct wind damage field surveys for high-impact weather events of convective originThe sensitivity of intense rainfall to aerosol particle loading – a comparison of bin-resolved microphysics modelling with observations of heavy precipitation from HyMeX IOP7aBrief communication: Hurricane Dorian: automated near-real-time mapping of the “unprecedented” flooding in the Bahamas using synthetic aperture radarData impact studies with the AROME WMED reanalysis of the HyMeX SOP1Systematic error analysis of heavy-precipitation-event prediction using a 30-year hindcast datasetAn 18-year climatology of derechos in GermanyA New View on Risk of Typhoon Occurrence in the Western North PacificExposure of real estate properties to the 2018 Hurricane Florence floodingRemote sensing in an index-based insurance design for hedging economic impacts on rice cultivationContribution of personal weather stations to the observation of deep-convection features near the groundImproving sub-seasonal forecast skill of meteorological drought: a weather pattern approachSimulations of the 2005, 1910, and 1876 Vb cyclones over the Alps – sensitivity to model physics and cyclonic moisture fluxChanges in flood damage with global warming on the eastern coast of SpainProbabilistic modelling of the dependence between rainfed crops and drought hazardFirst reported case of thunderstorm asthma in IsraelMeteorological conditions leading to the 2015 Salgar flash flood: lessons for vulnerable regions in tropical complex terrainEstimates of tropical cyclone geometry parameters based on best-track dataIdentifying a transition climate zone in an arid river basin using the evaporative stress indexA statistical-parametric model of tropical cyclones for hazard assessmentThe impact of lightning and radar reflectivity factor data assimilation on the very short-term rainfall forecasts of RAMS@ISAC: application to two case studies in ItalyImpact of the dry-day definition on Mediterranean extreme dry-spell analysisEffects of horizontal resolution and air–sea flux parameterization on the intensity and structure of simulated Typhoon Haiyan (2013)Flood risk in a range of spatial perspectives – from global to local scalesRadar-derived convective storms' climatology for the Prut River basin: 2003–2017The impact of drought on the productivity of two rainfed crops in SpainA high-resolution spatial assessment of the impacts of drought variability on vegetation activity in Spain from 1981 to 2015
David MacLeod, Mary Kilavi, Emmah Mwangi, Maurine Ambani, Michael Osunga, Joanne Robbins, Richard Graham, Pedram Rowhani, and Martin C. Todd
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 261–277,Short summary
Forecasts of natural hazards save lives. But the accuracy of forecasts must be evaluated before use. Here we evaluate heavy rainfall advisories over Kenya. We assess their ability to anticipate heavy rainfall and show how well they warned of recent floods which had significant impacts. We find that although they effectively warn of heavy rainfall and flooding, issues such as a lack of spatial detail limit their utility for systematic approaches to preparedness.
Linda van Garderen, Frauke Feser, and Theodore G. Shepherd
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 171–186,Short summary
The storyline method is used to quantify the effect of climate change on a particular extreme weather event using a global atmospheric model by simulating the event with and without climate change. We present the method and its successful application for the climate change signals of the European 2003 and the Russian 2010 heatwaves.
Raphaël Cécé, Didier Bernard, Yann Krien, Frédéric Leone, Thomas Candela, Matthieu Péroche, Emmanuel Biabiany, Gael Arnaud, Ali Belmadani, Philippe Palany, and Narcisse Zahibo
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 129–145,Short summary
The present innovative modeling aims to combine the most realistic simulated strongest gusts driven by tornado-scale vortices within the eyewall and the most realistic complex terrain effects. The present modeling method could be easily extended to other small mountainous islands to improve the understanding of observed past damage and to develop safer urban management and appropriate building standards.
Shunya Koseki, Priscilla A. Mooney, William Cabos, Miguel Ángel Gaertner, Alba de la Vara, and Juan Jesus González-Alemán
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 53–71,Short summary
This study investigated one case of a tropical-like cyclone over the Mediterranean Sea under present and future climate conditions with a regional climate model. A pseudo global warming (PGW) technique is employed to simulate the cyclone under future climate, and our simulation showed that the cyclone is moderately strengthened by warmer climate. Other PGW simulations where only ocean and atmosphere are warmed reveal the interesting results that both have counteracting effects on the cyclone.
Marcus Hirtl, Barbara Scherllin-Pirscher, Martin Stuefer, Delia Arnold, Rocio Baro, Christian Maurer, and Marie D. Mulder
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3099–3115,Short summary
The paper shows the application of a new volcanic emission preprocessor for the chemical transport model WRF-Chem. The model is evaluated with different observational data sets for the eruption of the Grimsvötn volcano 2011.
Alexander Krug, Daniel Fenner, Hans-Guido Mücke, and Dieter Scherer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3083–3097,Short summary
This study investigates hot weather episodes in eight German cities which are statistically associated with increased mortality. Besides air temperature, ozone concentrations partly explain these mortality rates. The strength of the respective contributions of the two stressors varies across the cities. Results highlight that during hot weather episodes, not only high air temperature affects urban populations; concurrently high ozone concentrations also play an important role in public health.
Nico Becker, Henning W. Rust, and Uwe Ulbrich
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2857–2871,Short summary
A set of models is developed to forecast hourly probabilities of weather-related road accidents in Germany at the spatial scale of administrative districts. Model verification shows that using precipitation and temperature data leads to the best accident forecasts. Based on weather forecast data we show that skilful predictions of accident probabilities of up to 21 h ahead are possible. The models can be used to issue impact-based warnings, which are relevant for road users and authorities.
Alberto Caldas-Alvarez and Samiro Khodayar
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2753–2776,Short summary
Heavy precipitation causes serious losses and several casualties in the western Mediterranean every year. To predict this phenomenon better, we aim at understanding how the models represent the interaction between atmospheric moisture and precipitation by nudging a 10 min, state-of-the-art GPS data set. We found, for the selected case in autumn 2012, that the improvement in the modelling of precipitation stems from relevant variations of atmospheric instability and humidity above 1.5 km.
Sean D. Egan, Martin Stuefer, Peter W. Webley, Taryn Lopez, Catherine F. Cahill, and Marcus Hirtl
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2721–2737,Short summary
The Weather Research Forecasting with Chemistry (WRF-Chem) model was modified to include volcanic ash aggregation. The modified WRF-Chem model was run with and without aggregation, and changes in the model output were measured. Changes in the lifetime of volcanic ash a function of the chosen fractal dimension were quantified. A case study using the 2010 eruptions of Eyjafjallajökull revealed that the aggregation modifications result in tephra fallout and ash concentrations near observed values.
Joan Albert Lopez-Bustins, Laia Arbiol-Roca, Javier Martin-Vide, Antoni Barrera-Escoda, and Marc Prohom
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2483–2501,Short summary
We considered the Western Mediterranean Oscillation index (WeMOi) to analyse the occurrence of extreme torrential episodes (≥ 200 mm in 24 h) over Catalonia (NE Iberia) during the 1951–2016 period. Principal results reveal the occurrence of 50 episodes, mainly in autumn, especially during the second 10 d period of October (11–20), coinciding with the most negative WeMOi values of the year. Seasonal changes in these episodes and in WeMOi values might be due to sea warming.
Leah Hayward, Malcolm Whitworth, Nick Pepin, and Steve Dorling
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2463–2482,Short summary
This review article outlines the state of thunderstorm climatologies, which are underrepresented in the literature. Thunderstorms overlap with lightning and intense precipitation events, both of which create important hazards. This article compiles and evaluates information on datasets, research approaches and methodologies used in quantifying thunderstorm distribution, providing an introduction to the topic and signposting new and established researchers to research articles and datasets.
Joan Gilabert, Anna Deluca, Dirk Lauwaet, Joan Ballester, Jordi Corbera, and Maria Carmen Llasat
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss.,
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Kees Nederhoff, Jasper Hoek, Tim Leijnse, Maarten van Ormondt, Sofia Caires, and Alessio Giardino
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss.,
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Xian Luo, Xuemei Fan, Yungang Li, and Xuan Ji
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2243–2254,Short summary
In this study, we corrected Asian Precipitation Highly Resolved Observational Data Integration Towards Evaluation of Water Resources (APHRODITE) in the Yarlung Tsangpo–Brahmaputra River Basin using both linear and nonlinear methods, and their influences on resulting extreme precipitation indices were assessed. Results showed that all methods were able to correct mean precipitation, but their ability to correct wet-day frequency and coefficient of variation were markedly different.
Milica M. Pecelj, Milica Z. Lukić, Dejan J. Filipović, Branko M. Protić, and Uroš M. Bogdanović
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2021–2036,Short summary
The variation in UTCI heat stress grade was observed during heat waves over the past 20 years in order to identify patterns of biothermal heat stress conditions in Serbia.
Very strong heat stressdescribes an alarming biothermal state and has occurred frequently in the last 10 years. The findings indicate the UTCI14 h index
very strong heat stress event(VSHSE) as an indicator of biothermal heat hazard.
Deanna Nash and Leila M. V. Carvalho
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1931–1940,Short summary
On 6 March 2019, during an atmospheric river (AR) event, over 8000 lightning flashes were recorded near southern California in under 24 h, resulting in a unique meteorological event for this region. This study examines the characteristics of this AR compared to previous landfalling ARs in Santa Barbara and explores how the conditions led to the formation of hail and enhanced electrification in a region that sees little to no lightning.
Kuo Li and Gyilbag Amatus
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1889–1901,Short summary
In recent years, heat waves have become more frequent in the world, e.g., in Europe, Australia, China and the US, at huge detriment to human health and natural resources. Thus we establish an integrated index of heat waves and extreme-temperature days to provide unified standards for assessing heat waves and hot years. It provides a clear picture of the evolution and spatial distribution of heat waves and hot years in China.
Michael Kunz, Jan Wandel, Elody Fluck, Sven Baumstark, Susanna Mohr, and Sebastian Schemm
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1867–1887,Short summary
Severe convective storms are major loss drivers across Europe. We reconstructed several thousand storm tracks from radar reflectivity over a 10-year period for parts of Europe. The tracks were additionally combined with hail reports, reanalysis data, and front detections based on ERA-Interim (ECMWF Reanalysis). It is found that frontal hailstorms on average produce larger hailstones and have longer tracks and that wind shear is important not only for the hail diameter but also for track length.
Anita Verpe Dyrrdal, Ketil Isaksen, Jens Kristian Steen Jacobsen, and Irene Brox Nilsen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1847–1865,Short summary
We have studied changes in winter weather known to trigger road closures and isolation of small seaside communities in northern Norway. We find that snow amounts and heavy snowfall events have increased in the past, while future projections for 2040–2100 show a decrease in snow-related indices. Events of heavy water supply and zero crossings are expected to increase. Our results imply fewer dry-snow-related access disruptions in the future, while wet-snow avalanches and slushflows may increase.
Rogert Sorí, Marta Vázquez, Milica Stojanovic, Raquel Nieto, Margarida L. R. Liberato, and Luis Gimeno
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1805–1832,
Emanuele Bevacqua, Michalis I. Vousdoukas, Theodore G. Shepherd, and Mathieu Vrac
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1765–1782,Short summary
Coastal compound flooding (CF), caused by interacting storm surges and high water runoff, is typically studied based on concurring storm surge extremes with either precipitation or river discharge extremes. Globally, these two approaches show similar CF spatial patterns, especially where the CF potential is the highest. Deviations between the two approaches increase with the catchment size. The precipitation-based analysis allows for considering local-rainfall-driven CF and CF in small rivers.
Flavio Lopes Ribeiro, Mario Guevara, Alma Vázquez-Lule, Ana Paula Cunha, Marcelo Zeri, and Rodrigo Vargas
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss.,
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESSShort summary
The main objective of this paper was to analyze differences in soil moisture responses to drought for each biome of Brazil. For that, we used satellite data from the European Space Agency, from 2009 to 2015. We found an overall soil moisture decline of −0.5 %/year at the country level and identified the most vulnerable biomes of Brazil. This information is crucial to enhance the national drought early warning system, develop strategies for drought risk reduction and soil moisture conservation.
Genshen Fang, Lin Zhao, Shuyang Cao, Ledong Zhu, and Yaojun Ge
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1617–1637,Short summary
Coastal regions of China feature high population densities as well as flexible structures and are therefore vulnerable to tropical cyclone (TC) damage. A TC is a moving rotating storm with a small occurrence rate at a specific site. Wind anemometers are usually damaged during strong typhoon events, making the record of observed winds an unreliable predictor for design wind speed. This study uses the Monte Carlo simulation to investigate the typhoon wind hazards in coastal regions of China.
Elody Fluck, Michael Kunz, Peter Geissbuehler, and Stefan P. Ritz
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss.,
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESSShort summary
Severe convective storms (SCS) and related hail constitute a major atmospheric hazard in various parts of Europe. In our study we identified the regions the most affected by hail over a 10-year period (2005 to 2014) covering France, Germany, Belgium and Luxembourg. A cell-tracking algorithm was computed on remote-sensing data to enable the reconstruction of several thousands of SCS tracks. The location of hail hotspots will help to understand hail formation and improve hail forecasting.
Oriol Rodríguez, Joan Bech, Juan de Dios Soriano, Delia Gutiérrez, and Salvador Castán
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1513–1531,Short summary
Post-event damage assessment data are used to study the consequences of natural hazards, such as strong convective winds (i.e. tornadoes, downbursts). The information gathered during fieldwork can be used to characterize those events, which is necessary to build up and maintain robust and homogeneous databases of severe weather cases and high-impact weather events. Accordingly, a methodology to carry out damage surveys of strong-convective-wind events is presented in this article.
Christina Kagkara, Wolfram Wobrock, Céline Planche, and Andrea I. Flossmann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1469–1483,Short summary
Over the Cévennes–Vivarais region in southern France, 5 h intensive rainfall covering an area of 1000 km2 with more than 50 mm rain accumulation was observed during IOP7a of HyMeX. This study evaluates the performance of a bin-resolved cloud model for simulating this heavy-precipitation event. The simulation results were compared with observations of rain accumulation, radar reflectivity, temporal and spatial evolution of precipitation, 5 min rain rates, and raindrop size distributions.
Diego Cerrai, Qing Yang, Xinyi Shen, Marika Koukoula, and Emmanouil N. Anagnostou
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1463–1468,Short summary
On 1 September 2019 Hurricane Dorian made landfall on Great Abaco, unleashing unprecedented destruction on the northern Bahamas. Dorian was characterized by extreme winds, extensive coastal flooding, and impressive precipitation. We studied the event through images acquired by the synthetic aperture radars (SARs) mounted on European Space Agency satellites to derive flooding maps showing the extent of the devastation. We found that the flooded area in the Bahamas was at least 3000 km2.
Nadia Fourrié, Mathieu Nuret, Pierre Brousseau, and Olivier Caumont
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss.,
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESSShort summary
Impact of assimilation of various observation data set on the forecasts is studied in a mesoscale weather model. The ground-based GNSS Zenithal Total Delay data set providing information on humidity has the largest impact on the analyses and the forecasts. Indeed it represents an evenly spread and frequent data set available at each analysis time over the model domain. Moreover, the reprocessing of these data also improves the forecast quality but this impact is not statistically significant.
Matteo Ponzano, Bruno Joly, Laurent Descamps, and Philippe Arbogast
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1369–1389,Short summary
We assess a methodology to evaluate and improve intense precipitation forecasting in the southeastern French region. This methodology is based on the use of a 30-year dataset of past forecasts which are analysed using a spatial verification approach. We found that precipitation forecasting is qualitatively driven by the deep-convection parametrization. Locally the model is able to reproduce the distribution of spatially integrated rainfall patterns of the most intense precipitation.
Christoph P. Gatzen, Andreas H. Fink, David M. Schultz, and Joaquim G. Pinto
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1335–1351,Short summary
Derechos are widespread, convectively induced severe wind events. A climatology of derechos in Germany is presented. It shows that derechos are not uncommon across the country. Two seasonal peaks indicate a comparable derecho risk in summer and winter. At the same time, we found two different derecho types, a warm- and a cold-season type. We present characteristics of both derecho types that can help forecasters to estimate the potential derecho threat in a given weather situation.
Kelvin S. Ng and Gregor C. Leckebusch
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss.,
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESSShort summary
Of severe tropical cyclones (TCs) lead to devastating losses. Nevertheless, to construct a robust risk assessment is difficult based on historical TC records only. This paper addresses this issue by introducing a computationally simple approach, using operational ensemble forecasts to build a physically consistent high-impact TC event set with data equivalent to more than 10 000 years of TC events. This method will be of high relevance for insurance and disaster risk reduction applications.
Marco Tedesco, Steven McAlpine, and Jeremy R. Porter
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 907–920,Short summary
Quantifying the exposure of house property to extreme weather events is crucial to study their impact on economy. Here, we show that value of property exposed to Hurricane Florence in September 2018 was USD 52 billion vs. USD 10 billion that would have occurred at the beginning of the 19th century due to urban expansion that increased after 1950s and the increasing number of houses built near water, showing the importance of accounting for the distribution of new buildings in risk and exposure.
Omar Roberto Valverde-Arias, Paloma Esteve, Ana María Tarquis, and Alberto Garrido
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 345–362,Short summary
We designed an index-based insurance (IBI) for drought and flood in rice crops in Babahoyo (Ecuador). We assessed Babahoyo's soil, climatic and topographic variability, finding two homogeneous zones inside this area. We set differentiated insurance premiums according to the particular risk status of each zone. Results demonstrate that this IBI is an efficient risk transfer tool for policyholders. This insurance design could contribute to stabilizing farmers' incomes and rice production.
Marc Mandement and Olivier Caumont
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 299–322,Short summary
The number of connected personal weather stations has dramatically increased in the last years. These weather stations produce a high number of data that need a thorough quality control to unleash their potential. A novel quality-control algorithm now allows us to take full advantage of these data and observe thunderstorms with fine-scale details that cannot be caught by standard networks. These results pave the way for tremendous advances in both understanding and forecasting thunderstorms.
Doug Richardson, Hayley J. Fowler, Christopher G. Kilsby, Robert Neal, and Rutger Dankers
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 107–124,Short summary
Models are not particularly skilful at forecasting rainfall more than 15 d in advance. However, they are often better at predicting atmospheric variables such as mean sea-level pressure (MSLP). Comparing a range of models, we show that UK winter and autumn rainfall and drought prediction skill can be improved by utilising forecasts of MSLP-based weather patterns (WPs) and subsequently estimating rainfall using the historical WP–precipitation relationships.
Peter Stucki, Paul Froidevaux, Marcelo Zamuriano, Francesco Alessandro Isotta, Martina Messmer, and Andrey Martynov
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 35–57,Short summary
In 1876, 1910, and 2005, Switzerland was impacted by extreme rainfall and floods. All events were linked to a Vb cyclone. We test a range of weather model setups (short spinup and standard physics are best) to understand the sensitivity of atmospheric dynamics. The simulated Vb cyclones are (not) well defined for 2005 and 1910 (1876). To reproduce the events, intense moisture flux from the right direction is needed. Storms that slightly deviate from an ideal path produce erroneous precipitation.
Maria Cortès, Marco Turco, Philip Ward, Josep A. Sánchez-Espigares, Lorenzo Alfieri, and Maria Carmen Llasat
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2855–2877,Short summary
The main objective of this paper is to estimate changes in the probability of damaging flood events with global warming of 1.5, 2 and 3 °C above pre-industrial levels and taking into account different socioeconomic scenarios in two western Mediterranean regions. The results show a general increase in the probability of a damaging event, with larger increments when higher warming is considered. Moreover, this increase is higher when both climate and population change are included.
Andreia F. S. Ribeiro, Ana Russo, Célia M. Gouveia, Patrícia Páscoa, and Carlos A. L. Pires
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2795–2809,Short summary
This work investigates the dependence between drought hazard and yield anomalies of rainfed cropping systems in the Iberian Peninsula using the copula theory. The applied methodology allows us to estimate the likelihood of wheat and barley loss under drought conditions, and a dependence among extreme values is suggested. From the decision-making point of view this study aims to contribute to the mitigation of drought-related crop failure.
Yoav Yair, Yifat Yair, Baruch Rubin, Ronit Confino-Cohen, Yosef Rosman, Eduardo Shachar, and Menachem Rottem
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2715–2725,Short summary
During severe thunderstorms, cold outflows can eject pollen and dust particles from the surface, releasing allergens and causing
thunderstorm asthmaepidemics in sensitive populations. We report the first case in Israel that occurred on 25 October 2015. The emergency room presentation records from three hospitals in central Israel showed a clear increase in patients with respiratory complaints immediately after the passage of a massive super-cell thunderstorm in the area.
Carlos D. Hoyos, Lina I. Ceballos, Jhayron S. Pérez-Carrasquilla, Julián Sepúlveda, Silvana M. López-Zapata, Manuel D. Zuluaga, Nicolás Velásquez, Laura Herrera-Mejía, Olver Hernández, Gisel Guzmán-Echavarría, and Mauricio Zapata
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2635–2665,Short summary
On the morning of 18 May 2015, a flash flood in the La Liboriana river basin inundated the town of Salgar, killing more than 100 people. The ultimate goal of science, regarding risk management, is to be able to reduce the number of people affected by severe storms. Our goal is to identify the meteorological conditions that led to the flood, assess the characteristics of the rainfall events before the disaster, and identify lessons for vulnerable regions settled in complex terrains.
Kees Nederhoff, Alessio Giardino, Maarten van Ormondt, and Deepak Vatvani
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2359–2370,Short summary
Tropical cyclone wind models are often used in engineering applications. However, these models lack the required accuracy when the size of the tropical cyclone is not known. In this paper, new relationships are derived to describe parameters affecting the size. These relationships are formulated using observed data and make it possible to estimate tropical cyclone size and to use this information in tropical cyclone wind models to obtain more reliable estimates of the tropical cyclone winds.
Yongqiang Liu, Lu Hao, Decheng Zhou, Cen Pan, Peilong Liu, Zhe Xiong, and Ge Sun
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2281–2294,Short summary
A transition zone often exists between a moist upper river reach and an arid lower reach in a watershed with complex topography. This zone is more suitable for human activities but is difficult to identify in climate classification. We found that a hydrological index overpowers a meteorological index in identifying a transition zone of a watershed in northwestern China, indicating the important role of the land-surface processes and human disturbances in formulating the transition zone.
William C. Arthur
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss.,Short summary
We have developed a statistical-parametric model of tropical cyclones (TCs), to undertake hazard and risk assessments at continental scales. The model enables users to build an understanding of the likelihood and magnitude of TC-related wind speeds across full ocean basins, but at a fine spatial resolution. The model can also be applied to single events, either scenarios or forecast events, to inform detailed impact assessments.
Stefano Federico, Rosa Claudia Torcasio, Elenio Avolio, Olivier Caumont, Mario Montopoli, Luca Baldini, Gianfranco Vulpiani, and Stefano Dietrich
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1839–1864,Short summary
This study shows the possibility to improve the weather forecast at the very short range (0–3 h) using lightning and/or radar reflectivity observations. We consider two challenging events that occurred over Italy, named Serrano and Livorno, characterized by moderate and exceptional rainfall, respectively. The improvement given to the forecast by using the lightning and/or radar reflectivity observations is considerable. The best performance is obtained when using both data.
Pauline Rivoire, Yves Tramblay, Luc Neppel, Elke Hertig, and Sergio M. Vicente-Serrano
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1629–1638,Short summary
In order to define a dry period, a threshold for wet days is usually considered to account for measurement errors and evaporation. In the present study, we compare the threshold of 1 mm d−1, the most commonly used threshold, to a time-varying threshold describing evapotranspiration to compare how the risk of extreme dry spells is estimated with both thresholds. Results indicate that considering a fixed threshold can underestimate extreme dry spells during the extended summer.
Mien-Tze Kueh, Wen-Mei Chen, Yang-Fan Sheng, Simon C. Lin, Tso-Ren Wu, Eric Yen, Yu-Lin Tsai, and Chuan-Yao Lin
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1509–1539,Short summary
In this study, we show that both the model horizontal resolution and air–sea flux parameterization can exert a large influence on tropical cyclone intensity simulation but with different impacts on wind structures. We highlight the intensification and contraction of the TC eyewall in response to the reduction of grid spacing. We also suggest that a well-developed eyewall is more conducive to the positive effect of flux formulas on TC development.
Zbigniew W. Kundzewicz, Buda Su, Yanjun Wang, Guojie Wang, Guofu Wang, Jinlong Huang, and Tong Jiang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1319–1328,Short summary
Considering flood risk composed of hazard, exposure, and vulnerability from global to local scales, this paper reviews and presents increasing observed flood losses and projections of flood hazard and losses. We acknowledge existence of multiple driving factors and of considerable uncertainty, in particular with regards to projections for the future. Finally, this paper analyses options for flood risk reduction from a global framework to regional and local scales.
Sorin Burcea, Roxana Cică, and Roxana Bojariu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1305–1318,Short summary
The mapping of convective storms in the area of the transboundary Prut River basin was developed using a 15-year radar dataset (2003–2017). The analysis is based on data sampled in successive 6 min scans of the atmosphere, to detect and track the convective storms. The results highlighted a yearly, monthly, and daily variation of convective activity but also spatial distribution patterns. The study of atmospheric convection is important in assessing the risks associated with extreme weather.
Marina Peña-Gallardo, Sergio Martín Vicente-Serrano, Fernando Domínguez-Castro, and Santiago Beguería
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1215–1234,Short summary
Drought events are of great importance in most Mediterranean climate regions, and the impacts caused on rainfed crops are particularly evident. In this study the impacts of drought on two representative rainfed crops in Spain (wheat and barley) are assessed by testing various worldwide drought indices and two datasets at different spatial resolution.
Sergio M. Vicente-Serrano, Cesar Azorin-Molina, Marina Peña-Gallardo, Miquel Tomas-Burguera, Fernando Domínguez-Castro, Natalia Martín-Hernández, Santiago Beguería, Ahmed El Kenawy, Iván Noguera, and Mónica García
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1189–1213,Short summary
Drought is a major driver of vegetation activity in Spain. Here we used a high-resolution remote-sensing dataset spanning the period from 1981 to 2015 to assess the sensitivity of 23 vegetation types to drought across Spain. Results demonstrate that vegetation activity is controlled largely by the interannual variability of drought. Nevertheless, there are some considerable spatio-temporal variations, which can be linked to differences in land cover and aridity conditions.
Arthur, W. C.: A statistical-parametric model of tropical cyclones for hazard assessment, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-192, in review, 2019.
Arthur, W. C., Schofield, A., Cechet, R. P., and Sanabria, L. A.: Return period cyclonic wind hazard in the Australian region, in: 28th AMS Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology, Orlando, Florida, USA, 28 April–2 May 2008, 12B.5, 2008.
Blackadar, A. K.: The vertical distribution of wind and turbulent exchange in a neutral atmosphere, J. Geophys. Res., 67, 3095–3102, https://doi.org/10.1029/JZ067i008p03095, 1962.
Chavas, D. R., Reed, K. A., and Knaff, J. A.: Physical understanding of the tropical cyclone wind-pressure relationship, Nat. Commun., 8, 1360, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-017-01546-9, 2017.
Cobb, A. and Done, J. M.: The Use of Global Climate Models for Tropical Cyclone Risk Assessment, in: Hurricanes and Climate Change, edited by: Collins, J., Walsh, K., Springer, Cham, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-47594-3_7, 2017.
Danielson, J. J. and Gesch, D. B.: Global multi-resolution terrain elevation data 2010 (GMTED2010) (No. 2011-1073). US Geological Survey, https://doi.org/10.3133/ofr20111073, 2011.
Davis, C. A., Wang, W., Dudhia, J., and Torn, R.: Does increased horizontal resolution Improve hurricane wind forecasts?, Weather Forecast., 25, 1826–1841, https://doi.org/10.1175/2010WAF2222423.1, 2010.
Demuth, J., DeMaria, M., and Knaff, J. A.: Improvement of advanced microwave sounder unit tropical cyclone intensity and size estimation algorithms, J. Appl. Meteorol., 45, 1573–1581, https://doi.org/10.1175/JAM2429.1, 2006.
Elsner, J. B., Kossin, J. P., and Jagger, T. H.: The increasing intensity of the strongest tropical cyclones, Nature, 455, 92–95, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature07234, 2008.
Emanuel, K. A.: Increasing destructiveness of tropical cyclones over the past 30 years, Nature, 436, 686–688, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature03906, 2005.
Estrada, F., Botzen, W. J. W., and Tol, R. S. J.: Economic losses from US hurricanes consistent with an influence from climate change, Nat. Geosci., 8, 880–4, https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo2560, 2015.
Franklin, J. L., Black, M. L., and Valde, K.: GPS dropwindsonde wind profiles in hurricanes and their operational implications, Weather Forecast., 18, 32–44, 2003.
Galperin, B., Kantha, L. H., Hassid, S., and Rosati, A.: A Quasi-equilibrium Turbulent Energy Model for Geophysical Flows, J. Atmos. Sci., 45, 55–62, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1988)045<0055:AQETEM>2.0.CO;2, 1988.
Garratt, J. R.: Review of Drag Coefficients over Oceans and Continents, Mon. Weather Rev., 105, 915–929, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1977)105<0915:RODCOO>2.0.CO;2, 1977.
Geiger, T., Frieler, K., and Levermann, A.: High-income does not protect against hurricane losses, Environ. Res. Lett., 11, 084012, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/8/084012, 2016.
Giuliani, G. and Peduzzi, P.: The PREVIEW Global Risk Data Platform: a geoportal to serve and share global data on risk to natural hazards, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 11, 53–66, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-11-53-2011, 2011.
Harper, B. A., Kepert, J. D., and Ginger, J. D.: Guidelines for converting between various wind averaging periods in tropical cyclone conditions, WMO, Geneva, Switzerland,2010.
Henderson, D., Ginger, J., Leitch, C., Boughton, G., and Falck, D.: Tropical Cyclone Larry: Damage to buildings in the Innisfail area. CTS Tech. Rep. TR51, Cyclone Testing Station, School of Engineering, James Cook University, Townsville, QLD, Australia, 98 pp., 2006.
Hill, K. A. and Lackmann, G. M.: The impact of future climate change on TC intensity and structure: A downscaling approach, J Climate, 24, 4644–4661, https://doi.org/10.1175/2011JCLI3761.1, 2011.
Holland, G. J. and Bruyère, C. L.: Recent intense hurricane response to global climate change, Clim. Dynam., 42, 617–627, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-013-1713-0, 2014.
Holland, G. J., Belanger, J. I., and Fritz, A.: A revised model for radial profiles of hurricane winds, Mon. Weather Rev., 138, 4393–4401, https://doi.org/10.1175/2010MWR3317.1, 2010.
Holmes, J. D.: Wind loading of structures, 2nd ed., Taylor and Francis, London, UK and New York, USA, 2007.
Jakobsen, F. and Madsen, H.: Comparison and further development of parametric tropical cyclone models for storm surge modeling, J. Wind Engin., 92, 375–391, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jweia.2004.01.003, 2004.
Kepert, J. D.: Observed boundary-layer wind structure and balance in the hurricane core. Part I: Hurricane Georges, J. Atmos. Sci., 63, 2169–2193, https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS3745.1, 2006a.
Kepert, J. D.: Observed boundary-layer wind structure and balance in the hurricane core. Part II: Hurricane Mitch, J. Atmos. Sci., 63, 2194–2211, https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS3746.1, 2006b.
Kepert, J. D.: Choosing a boundary layer parameterization for tropical cyclone modelling, Mon. Weather Rev., 140, 1427–1445, https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-11-00217.1, 2012.
Kepert, J. D. and Wang, Y.: The Dynamics of Boundary Layer Jets within the Tropical Cyclone Core. Part II: Nonlinear Enhancement, J. Atmos. Sci., 58, 2485–2501, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(2001)058<2485:TDOBLJ>2.0.CO;2, 2001.
Knaff, J. A., DeMaria, M., Molenar, D. A., Sampson, C. R., Seybold, M. G.: An Automated, Objective, Multiple-Satellite-Platform Tropical Cyclone Surface Wind Analysis, J. Appl. Meteorol. Clim., 50, 2149–2166, 2011.
Knapp, K., Kruk, M. C., Levinson, D. H., Diamond, H. J., and Neumann, C. J.: The International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS), B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 91, 363–376, https://doi.org/10.1175/2009BAMS2755.1, 2010.
Loridan, T., Khare, S., Scherer, E., Dixon, M., and Bellone, E.: Parametric modeling of transitioning cyclone wind fields for risk assessment studies in the western North Pacific, J. Appl. Meteorol. Clim., 54, 624–642, https://doi.org/10.1175/JAMC-D-14-0095.1, 2015.
Loridan, T., Crompton, R. P., and Dubossarsky, E.: A Machine Learning Approach to Modeling Tropical Cyclone Wind Field Uncertainty, Mon. Weather Rev., 145, 3203–3221, https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-16-0429.1, 2017.
Meng, Y., Matsui, M., and Hibi, K.: A numerical study of the wind field in a typhoon boundary layer, J. Wind Eng. Ind. Aerod., 67–68, 437–448, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0167-6105(97)00092-5, 1997.
Miller, C., Gibbons, M., Beatty, K., and Boissonnade, A.: Topographic speed-up effects and observed roof damage on Bermuda following Hurricane Fabian (2003), Weather Forecast., 28, 159–174, https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-12-00050.1, 2013.
Mitchell-Wallace, K., Foote, M., Hillier, J., and Jones, M.: Natural catastrophe risk management and modelling: A practitioner's guide, John Wiley and Sons, https://doi.org/10.1002/9781118906057, 2017.
Murakami, H., Wang, Y., Yoshimura, H., Mizuta, R., Sugi, M., Shindo, E., Adachi, Y., Yukimoto, S., Hosaka, M., Kusunoki, S., and Ose, T.: Future changes in tropical cyclone activity projected by the new high-resolution MRI-AGCM, J. Climate, 25, 3237–3260, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00415.1, 2012.
NCEP/NWS/NOAA/US Department of Commerce.: NMC ADP Global Surface Observations Subsets. Research Data Archive at the National Center for Atmospheric Research, Computational and Information Systems Laboratory, https://doi.org/10.5065/BARE-NP34, 1995.
Pielke Jr., R. A., Gratz, J., Landsea, C. W., Collins, D., Saunders, M. A. and Musulin, R.: Normalized hurricane damage in the united states: 1900–2005, Nat. Hazards Rev., 9, 29–42, https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)1527-6988(2008)9:1(29), 2008.
Powell, M. D. and Houston, S. H.: Surface wind fields of 1995 Hurricanes Erin, Opal, Luis, Marilyn, and Roxanne at landfall, Mon. Weather Rev., 126, 1259–1273, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1998)126<1259:SWFOHE>2.0.CO;2, 1998.
Powell, M. D., Houston, S. H., Amat, L. R., and Morisseau-Leroy, N.: The HRD real-time hurricane wind analysis system, J. Wind Eng. Ind. Aerod., 77–78, 53–64, 1998.
Powell, M. D., Vickery, P. J., and Reinhold, T. A.: Reduced drag coefficient for high wind speeds in tropical cyclones, Nature, 422, 279–283, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature01481, 2003.
Ramsay, H. A. and Leslie, L. M.: The effects of complex terrain on severe landfalling Tropical Cyclone Larry (2006) over northeast Australia, Mon. Weather Rev., 136, 4334–4354, https://doi.org/10.1175/2008MWR2429.1, 2008.
Ramsay, H. A., Leslie, L. M., and Kepert, J. D.: A high-resolution simulation of asymmetries in severe Southern Hemisphere Tropical Cyclone Larry (2006), Mon. Weather Rev., 137, 4171–4187, https://doi.org/10.1175/2009MWR2744.1, 2009.
Ranson, M., Kousky, C., Ruth, M., Jantarasami, L., Crimmins, A., and Tarquinio, L.: Tropical and extratropical cyclone damages under climate change, Climatic Change, 127, 227–241, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-014-1255-4, 2014.
Schwendike, J. and Kepert, J. D.: The boundary layer winds in Hurricanes Danielle (1998) and Isabel (2003), Mon. Weather Rev., 136, 3168–3192, https://doi.org/10.1175/2007MWR2296.1, 2008.
Smith, S. D.: Coefficients for sea surface wind stress, heat flux, and wind profiles as a function of wind speed and temperature, J. Geophys. Res, 93, 15467–15472, https://doi.org/10.1029/JC093iC12p15467, 1988.
Smith, A. and Katz, R.: US Billion-dollar Weather and Climate Disasters: Data Sources, Trends, Accuracy and Biases, Nat. Hazards, 67, 387–410, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-013-0566-5, 2013.
Tan, C. and Fang, W.: Mapping the wind hazard of global tropical cyclones with parametric wind field models by considering the effects of local factors, Int. J. Disast. Risk Sci., 9, 86–99, https://doi.org/10.1007/s13753-018-0161-1, 2018.
Vickery, P. J., Masters, F. J., Powell, M. D., and Wadhera, D.: Hurricane hazard modeling: The past, present, and future, J. Wind Eng. Ind. Aerod., 97–98, 392–405, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jweia.2009.05.005, 2009.
Villarini, G. and Vecchi, G. A.: Projected increases in North Atlantic tropical cyclone intensity from CMIP5 models, J. Climate, 26, 3231–3240, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00441.1, 2013.
Walsh, K. J., McBride, J. L., Klotzbach, P. J., Balachandran, S., Camargo, S. J., Holland, G., Knutson, T. R., Kossin, J. P., Lee, T. C., Sobel, A., and Sugi, M.: Tropical cyclones and climate change, WIRES Clim. Change, 7, 65–89, https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo779, 2016.
Wang, Y.: A multiply nested, movable mesh, fully compressible, nonhydrostatic tropical cyclone model – TCM4: Model description and development of asymmetries without explicit asymmetric forcing, Meteorol. Atmos. Phys., 97, 93–116, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00703-006-0246-z, 2007.
Weinkle, J., Maue, R., and Pielke Jr., R.: Historical global tropical cyclone landfalls, J. Climate, 25, 4729–4735, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00719.1, 2012.
Wu, C. C.: Numerical simulation of Typhoon Gladys (1994) and its interaction with Taiwan terrain using the GFDL hurricane model, Mon. Weather Rev., 129, 1533–1549, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(2001)129<1533:NSOTGA>2.0.CO;2, 2001.
Yang, T., Cechet, R. P., and Nadimpalli, K.: Local wind assessment in Australia: Computation methodology for wind multipliers, Geoscience Australia, Canberra, Australia, 2014/33, 2014.
Youngman, B. D. and Stephenson, D. B.: A geostatistical extreme-value framework for fast simulation of natural hazard events, P. Roy. Soc. A-Math. Phy., 472, 2189, https://doi.org/10.1098/rspa.2015.0855, 2016.
Willoughby, H. E., Darling, R. W. R., and Rahn, M. E.: Parametric representation of the primary hurricane vortex. Part II: A new family of sectionally continuous profiles, Mon. Weather Rev., 134, 1102–1120, 2006.
Zhang, B., Perrie, W., Zhang, J. A., Uhlhorn, E. W., and He, Y.: High-resolution hurricane vector winds from C-band dual-polarization SAR observations, J. Atmos. Ocean. Tech., 31, 272–286, 2014.
Zhang, J. A., Drennan, W. M., Black, P. G., and French, J. R.: Turbulence structure of the hurricane boundary layer between the outer rainbands, J. Atmos. Sci., 66, 2455–2467, 2009.
Zhang, J. A., Rogers, R. F., Nolan, D. S., and Marks Jr., F. D.: On the characteristic height scales of the hurricane boundary layer, Mon. Weather Rev., 139, 2523–2535, https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-10-05017.1, 2011.
Assessing tropical cyclone (TC) wind risk is challenging due to a lack of historical TC wind data. This paper presents a novel approach to simulating landfalling TC winds anywhere on Earth. It captures local features such as high winds over coastal hills and lulls over rough terrain. A dataset of over 700 global historical wind footprints has been generated to provide new views of historical events. This dataset can be used to advance our understanding of overland TC wind risk.
Assessing tropical cyclone (TC) wind risk is challenging due to a lack of historical TC wind...