Articles | Volume 20, issue 11
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-3135-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-3135-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
27 Nov 2020
Research article |
| 27 Nov 2020
| 27 Nov 2020
Multi-hazard risk assessment for roads: probabilistic versus deterministic approaches
Stefan Oberndorfer
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Ziviltechnikerkanzlei Oberndorfer, Ecking 57, 5771 Leogang, Austria
Institute of Mountain Risk Engineering, University of Natural
Resources and Life Sciences, Vienna, Peter-Jordan-Straße 82, 1190 Vienna, Austria
Philip Sander
Institute of Construction Management, Bundeswehr University Munich,
Werner-Heisenberg-Weg 39, 85577 Neubiberg, Germany
Sven Fuchs
Institute of Mountain Risk Engineering, University of Natural
Resources and Life Sciences, Vienna, Peter-Jordan-Straße 82, 1190 Vienna, Austria
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Hedieh Soltanpour, Kamal Serrhini, Joel C. Gill, Sven Fuchs, and Solmaz Mohadjer
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1779, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1779, 2024
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS).
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We applied the Maximum Entropy model to characterize multi-hazard scenarios in karst environments, focusing on flood-triggered sinkholes in Val d'Orléans, France. Karst terrains as multi-hazard forming areas, have received little attention in multi-hazard literature. Our study developed a multi-hazard susceptibility map to forecast the spatial distribution of these hazards. The findings improve understanding of hazard interactions and demonstrate the model's utility in multi-hazard analysis.
Wolfgang Schwanghart, Ankit Agarwal, Kristen Cook, Ugur Ozturk, Roopam Shukla, and Sven Fuchs
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3291–3297, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3291-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3291-2024, 2024
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The Himalayan landscape is particularly susceptible to extreme events, which interfere with increasing populations and the expansion of settlements and infrastructure. This preface introduces and summarizes the nine papers that are part of the special issue,
Estimating and predicting natural hazards and vulnerabilities in the Himalayan region.
Mark Bawa Malgwi, Sven Fuchs, and Margreth Keiler
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2067–2090, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2067-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2067-2020, 2020
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Mitigation planning and economic loss assessment generally rely on flood damage prediction models. However, unavailability of empirical data has limited the use of such models in data-scarce areas. This paper combines the vulnerability indicator and damage grade approach to develop a conceptual framework for predicting building damage in data-scarce regions. The framework can be implemented using only expert knowledge and facilitates transferability of flood damage models in data-scarce areas.
Matthias Schlögl, Gerald Richter, Michael Avian, Thomas Thaler, Gerhard Heiss, Gernot Lenz, and Sven Fuchs
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 201–219, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-201-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-201-2019, 2019
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Landslides are destructive events, threatening the integrity of land transport systems. This paper presents how road networks are vulnerable to landslides, with emphasis on the consequences for affected road users. Results show the merits of using agent-based traffic modelling to assess the impacts of road network interruptions on rural communities by providing insights into the characteristics of the population affected and the effects on its daily routine in terms of detour costs.
Sven Fuchs, Margreth Keiler, and Thomas Glade
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 1203–1206, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-1203-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-1203-2017, 2017
Sven Fuchs, Konstantinos Karagiorgos, Kyriaki Kitikidou, Fotios Maris, Spyridon Paparrizos, and Thomas Thaler
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3183–3198, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-3183-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-3183-2017, 2017
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Flood risk management often overlooks public perception of the hazard, and, therefore, many risk management plans have failed. This paper examines the private adaptation capacity and willingness with respect to flood hazards as one reason for this failure. Based on the results of our case studies in Greece, key issues to be addressed were identified and improvements are being recommended for the social dimension surrounding the implementation of flood risk management plans.
S. Fuchs, M. Keiler, and A. Zischg
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 2127–2142, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-2127-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-2127-2015, 2015
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A spatially explicit object-based temporal assessment of buildings and citizens exposed to natural hazards in Austria is presented, including elements at risk of river flooding, torrential flooding, and snow avalanches. It is shown that the repeatedly stated assumption of increasing losses due to continued population growth and related increase in assets has to be opposed to the local development of building stock, which is spatially and temporally variable.
B. Mazzorana, S. Simoni, C. Scherer, B. Gems, S. Fuchs, and M. Keiler
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 3817–3836, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-3817-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-3817-2014, 2014
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Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1811–1839, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1811-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1811-2025, 2025
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Cities in coastal and delta areas need effective engineering techniques to counteract subsidence and its damage. This paper presents a framework for choosing these techniques using a decision tree and four performance parameters. This procedure was tested on various cases representative of different scenarios. This demonstrated the potential of this method for initial screenings of techniques which site-specific assessments should always follow.
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André Felipe Rocha Silva, Julian Cardoso Eleutério, Heiko Apel, and Heidi Kreibich
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This work uses agent-based modelling to evaluate the impact of flood warning and evacuation systems on human losses during the 2021 Ahr Valley flood in Germany. While the first flood warning with evacuation instructions is identified as timely, its lack of detail and effectiveness resulted in low public risk awareness. Better dissemination of warnings and improved risk perception and preparedness among the population could reduce casualties by up to 80 %.
Lijiao Yang, Yan Luo, Zilong Li, and Xinyu Jiang
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This study proposes a response-bias-tolerant methodology for constructing production capacity loss rate (PCLR) curves, which addresses response bias in extreme flood scenarios and considers the distribution characteristics of PCLR under different damage states. The core value of this study is to provide a competing and promising input in economic modeling, such as input-output and computable general equilibrium models.
Robert J. Taggart and David J. Wilke
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-323, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-323, 2025
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Our research presents a new method for determining warning levels for any hazard. Using risk matrices, our framework addresses issues found in other approaches. We provide examples to demonstrate how the approach works. A powerful method for evaluating warning accuracy is given, allowing for a cycle of continuous improvement in warning services. This research is relevant to a broad audience, from those who develop forecast systems to practitioners who issue or communicate warnings.
Maurice W. M. L. Kalthof, Jens de Bruijn, Hans de Moel, Heidi Kreibich, and Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1013–1035, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1013-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1013-2025, 2025
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Our study explores how farmers in India's Bhima basin respond to consecutive droughts. We simulated farmers' individual choices – like changing crops or digging wells – and their effects on profits, yields, and water resources. Results show these adaptations, while improving incomes, ultimately increase drought vulnerability and damage. Such insights emphasize the need for alternative adaptations and highlight the value of socio-hydrological models in shaping policies to lessen drought impacts.
Nadja Veigel, Heidi Kreibich, Jens A. de Bruijn, Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts, and Andrea Cominola
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 879–891, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-879-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-879-2025, 2025
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This study explores how social media, specifically Twitter (X), can help us understand public reactions to floods in Germany from 2014 to 2021. Using large language models, we extract topics and patterns of behavior from flood-related tweets. The findings offer insights to improve communication and disaster management. Topics related to low-impact flooding contain descriptive hazard-related content, while the focus shifts to catastrophic impacts and responsibilities during high-impact events.
Fangyu Tian, Yun Su, Xudong Chen, and Le Tao
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 591–607, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-591-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-591-2025, 2025
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This study developed a model of extreme drought-induced famine processes and response mechanisms in ancient China. The spatial distribution of drought and famine during the Chenghua drought and the Wanli drought was constructed. By categorizing drought-affected counties into three types, a comparative analysis of the differences in famine severity and response effectiveness between the Chenghua and Wanli droughts was conducted.
Gabriele Bertoli, Chiara Arrighi, and Enrica Caporali
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 565–580, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-565-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-565-2025, 2025
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Environmental assets are crucial to sustaining and fulfilling life on Earth via ecosystem services (ESs). Studying their flood risk is thus seminal, in addition to being required by several norms. However, this field is not yet adequately developed. We studied the exposure component of flood risk and developed an evaluating methodology based on the ESs provided by environmental assets to discern assets and areas that are more important than others with metrics suitable to large-scale studies.
Duanyang Liu, Tian Jing, Mingyue Yan, Ismail Gultepe, Yunxuan Bao, Hongbin Wang, and Fan Zu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 493–513, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-493-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-493-2025, 2025
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Highway-blocking events are characterized by diurnal variation. A classification method of severity levels of highway blocking is catagorized into five levels. The severity levels of highway blocking due to high-impact weather are evaluated. A method for calculating the degree of highway load in China is proposed. A quantitative assessment of the losses of highway blocking due to dense fog is conducted. The highway losses caused by dense fog are concentrated in North, East, and Southwest China.
Thiago Dutra dos Santos and Taro Uchida
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2255, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2255, 2025
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Five federal sediment-related disaster risk assessments have been conducted in Brazil, each with distinct objectives and methodologies. To evaluate their effectiveness and identify issues, we analyzed the methods, the outcome data, and reviewed the status of disaster prevention initiatives based on the assessment results. Our findings revealed persistent problems across all methods. Consequently, we recommended improvements to enhance their efficacy and reliability.
Alexandre Dunant, Tom R. Robinson, Alexander L. Densmore, Nick J. Rosser, Ragindra Man Rajbhandari, Mark Kincey, Sihan Li, Prem Raj Awasthi, Max Van Wyk de Vries, Ramesh Guragain, Erin Harvey, and Simon Dadson
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 267–285, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-267-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-267-2025, 2025
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Natural hazards like earthquakes often trigger other disasters, such as landslides, creating complex chains of impacts. We developed a risk model using a mathematical approach called hypergraphs to efficiently measure the impact of interconnected hazards. We showed that it can predict broad patterns of damage to buildings and roads from the 2015 Nepal earthquake. The model's efficiency allows it to generate multiple disaster scenarios, even at a national scale, to support preparedness plans.
Harikesan Baskaran, Ioanna Ioannou, Tiziana Rossetto, Jonas Cels, Mathis Joffrain, Nicolas Mortegoutte, Aurelie Fallon Saint-Lo, and Catalina Spataru
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 49–76, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-49-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-49-2025, 2025
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There is a global need for insuring green economy assets against natural hazard events. But their complexity and low exposure history mean the data required for vulnerability evaluation by the insurance industry are scarce. A systematic literature review is conducted in this study to determine the suitability of current published literature for this purpose. Knowledge gaps are charted, and a representative asset–hazard taxonomy is proposed to guide future quantitative research.
Gabriela Guimarães Nobre, Jamie Towner, Bernardino Nhantumbo, Célio João da Conceição Marcos Matuele, Isaias Raiva, Massimiliano Pasqui, Sara Quaresima, and Rogério Manuel Lemos Pereira Bonifácio
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4661–4682, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4661-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4661-2024, 2024
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The
Ready, Set & Go!system, developed by the World Food Programme and partners, employs seasonal forecasts to tackle droughts in Mozambique. With the Maputo Declaration, efforts to expand early warning systems are aligning with global initiatives for universal protection by 2027. Through advanced forecasting and anticipatory action, it could cover 76 % of districts against severe droughts, reaching 87 % national coverage for the first months of the rainy season.
Elisabeth Schoepfer, Jörn Lauterjung, Torsten Riedlinger, Harald Spahn, Juan Camilo Gómez Zapata, Christian D. León, Hugo Rosero-Velásquez, Sven Harig, Michael Langbein, Nils Brinckmann, Günter Strunz, Christian Geiß, and Hannes Taubenböck
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4631–4660, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4631-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4631-2024, 2024
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In this paper, we provide a brief introduction of the paradigm shift from managing disasters to managing risks, followed by single-hazard to multi-risk assessment. We highlight four global strategies that address disaster risk reduction and call for action. Subsequently, we present a conceptual approach for multi-risk assessment which was designed to serve potential users like disaster risk managers, urban planners or operators of critical infrastructure to increase their capabilities.
Sébastien Dujardin, Dorian Arifi, Sebastian Schmidt, Catherine Linard, and Bernd Resch
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3255, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3255, 2024
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Our research explores how social media can help understand public responses to floods, focusing on the 2021 Western European flood. By analysing flood-related topics on social media, we found that conversations varied depending on the location and impact of the flood, with in-disaster concerns emerging in severely affected upstream areas and post-disaster discussions in less affected regions. This shows the potential of social media for better disaster coordination along border crossing rivers.
Luciano Pavesi, Elena Volpi, and Aldo Fiori
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4507–4522, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4507-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4507-2024, 2024
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Several sources of uncertainty affect flood risk estimation for reliable assessment for investment, insurance and risk management. Here, we consider the uncertainty of large-scale flood hazard modeling, providing a range of risk values that show significant variability depending on geomorphic factors and land use types. This allows for identifying the critical points where single-value estimates may underestimate the risk and the areas of vulnerability for prioritizing risk reduction efforts.
Tzu-Hsin Karen Chen, Kuan-Hui Elaine Lin, Thung-Hong Lin, Gee-Yu Liu, Chin-Hsun Yeh, and Diana Maria Ceballos
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4457–4471, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4457-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4457-2024, 2024
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This study shows migration patterns to be a critical factor in seismic fatalities. Analyzing the Chi-Chi earthquake in Taiwan, we find that lower income and a higher indigenous population at migrants' origins are correlated with higher fatalities at their destinations. This underscores the need for affordable and safe housing on the outskirts of megacities, where migrants from lower-income and historically marginalized groups are more likely to reside due to precarious employment conditions.
Kushagra Pandey, Jens A. de Bruijn, Hans de Moel, W. J. Wouter Botzen, and Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4409–4429, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4409-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4409-2024, 2024
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As sea levels rise, coastal areas will experience more frequent flooding, and salt water will start seeping into the soil, which is a serious issue for farmers who rely on good soil quality for their crops. Here, we studied coastal Mozambique to understand the risks from sea level rise and flooding by looking at how salt intrusion affects farming and how floods damage buildings. We find that 15 %–21 % of coastal households will adapt and 13 %–20 % will migrate to inland areas in the future.
Saskia Arndt and Stefan Heiland
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4369–4383, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4369-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4369-2024, 2024
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This study provides an overview of the current status of climate change adaptation in plans for water management, spatial planning and landscape planning in the Spree river basin. Only 39 % of 28 plans analysed specify objectives and measures for adaptation to climate change. To fill this gap, more frequent updates of plans, a stronger focus on multifunctional measures, and the adaptation of best-practice examples for systematic integration of climate change impacts and adaptation are needed.
Laura T. Massano, Giorgia Fosser, Marco Gaetani, and Cécile Caillaud
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4293–4315, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4293-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4293-2024, 2024
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Traditional wine-growing regions are threatened by expected climate change. Climate models and observations are used to calculate bioclimatic indices based on both temperature and precipitation. These indices are correlated with grape productivity in two wine-growing regions in Italy. This analysis paves the way for using climate models to study how climate change will affect wine production in the future.
María-Paz Reyes-Hardy, Luigia Sara Di Maio, Lucia Dominguez, Corine Frischknecht, Sébastien Biass, Leticia Freitas Guimarães, Amiel Nieto-Torres, Manuela Elissondo, Gabriela Pedreros, Rigoberto Aguilar, Álvaro Amigo, Sebastián García, Pablo Forte, and Costanza Bonadonna
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4267–4291, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4267-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4267-2024, 2024
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The Central Volcanic Zone of the Andes (CVZA) spans four countries with 59 volcanoes. We identify those with the most intense and frequent eruptions and the highest potential impact that require risk mitigation actions. Using multiple risk factors, we encourage the use of regional volcanic risk assessments to analyse the level of preparedness especially of transboundary volcanoes. We hope that our work will motivate further collaborative studies and promote cooperation between CVZA countries.
Mario A. Salgado-Gálvez, Mario Ordaz, Benjamín Huerta, Osvaldo Garay, Carlos Avelar, Ettore Fagà, Mohsen Kohrangi, Paola Ceresa, Georgios Triantafyllou, and Ulugbek T. Begaliev
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3851–3868, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3851-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3851-2024, 2024
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Central Asia is prone to earthquake losses, which can heavily impact different types of assets. This paper presents the details of a probabilistic earthquake risk model which made use of a regionally consistent approach to assess feasible earthquake losses in five countries. Results are presented in terms of commonly used risk metrics, which are aimed at facilitating a policy dialogue regarding different disaster risk management strategies, from risk mitigation to disaster risk financing.
Zhuyu Yang, Bruno Barroca, Ahmed Mebarki, Katia Laffréchine, Hélène Dolidon, and Lionel Lilas
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3723–3753, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3723-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3723-2024, 2024
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To integrate resilience assessment into practical management, this study designs a step-by-step guide that enables managers of critical infrastructure (CI) to create specific indicator systems tailored to real cases. This guide considers the consequences of hazards to CI and the cost–benefit analysis and side effects of implementable actions. The assessment results assist managers, as they are based on a multi-criterion framework that addresses several factors valued in practical management.
Natalie Piazza, Luca Malanchini, Edoardo Nevola, and Giorgio Vacchiano
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3579–3595, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3579-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3579-2024, 2024
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Natural disturbances are projected to intensify in the future, threatening our forests and their functions such as wood production, protection against natural hazards, and carbon sequestration. By assessing risks to forests from wind and fire damage, alongside the vulnerability of carbon, it is possible to prioritize forest stands at high risk. In this study, we propose a novel methodological approach to support climate-smart forest management and inform better decision-making.
Peng Zou, Gang Luo, Yuzhang Bi, and Hanhua Xu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3497–3517, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3497-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3497-2024, 2024
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The pile–slab retaining wall, an innovative rockfall shield, is widely used in China's western mountains. However, its dynamic impact response and resistance remain unclear due to structural complexity. A comprehensive dynamic analysis of the structure, under various impacts, was done using the finite-element method. The maximum impact energy that the structure can withstand is 905 kJ, and various indexes were obtained.
Bektaş Sari
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2538, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2538, 2024
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After the earthquake, the Turkish Government mobilized all available resources, ensured regular information updates, and deployed a significant number of rescue personnel to the affected areas. However, the scale of this devastating disaster, resulting in the loss of over 50,000 lives, underscores the critical importance of building earthquake-resistant structures as the most effective means to mitigate such calamities.
Jamir Priesner, Boris Sakschewski, Maik Billing, Werner von Bloh, Sebastian Fiedler, Sarah Bereswill, Kirsten Thonicke, and Britta Tietjen
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3066, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3066, 2024
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Our simulations suggest that increased drought frequencies lead to a drastic reduction in biomass in pine monoculture and mixed forest. Mixed forest eventually recovered, as long as drought frequencies was not too high. The higher resilience of mixed forests was due to higher adaptive capacity. After adaptation mixed forests were mainly composed of smaller, broad-leaved trees with higher wood density and slower growth.This would have strong implications for forestry and other ecosystem services.
Nicole van Maanen, Joël J.-F. G. De Plaen, Timothy Tiggeloven, Maria Luisa Colmenares, Philip J. Ward, Paolo Scussolini, and Elco Koks
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-137, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-137, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
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Understanding coastal flood protection is vital for assessing risks from natural disasters and climate change. However, current global data on coastal flood protection is limited and based on simplified assumptions, leading to potential uncertainties in risk estimates. As a step in this direction, we propose a comprehensive dataset, COASTPROS-EU, which compiles coastal flood protection standards in Europe.
Cassiano Bastos Moroz and Annegret H. Thieken
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3299–3314, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3299-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3299-2024, 2024
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We evaluate the influence of urban processes on the impacts of the 2023 disaster that hit the North Coast of São Paulo, Brazil. The impacts of the disaster were largely associated with rapid urban expansion over the last 3 decades, with a recent occupation of risky areas. Moreover, lower-income neighborhoods were considerably more severely impacted, which evidences their increased exposure to such events. These results highlight the strong association between disaster risk and urban poverty.
Ilyas Masih
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-163, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-163, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
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This study evaluates twelve drought policy and planning guidelines for their alignment with the four priority areas of the SENDAI Framework. The guidelines do not align very well with the contemporary disaster risk reduction agenda. The study highlights strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats, and provides useful insights to develop next generation of drought guidelines.
Andra-Cosmina Albulescu and Iuliana Armaș
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2895–2922, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2895-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2895-2024, 2024
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This study delves into the dynamics of vulnerability within a multi-hazard context, proposing an enhanced impact-chain-based framework that analyses the augmentation of vulnerability. The case study refers to the flood events and the COVID-19 pandemic that affected Romania (2020–2021). The impact chain shows that (1) the unforeseen implications of impacts, (2) the wrongful action of adaptation options, and (3) inaction can form the basis for increased vulnerability.
Mansi Nagpal, Jasmin Heilemann, Luis Samaniego, Bernd Klauer, Erik Gawel, and Christian Klassert
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2585, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2585, 2024
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This study measures the direct effects of droughts in association with other extreme weather events on agriculture in Germany at district level. Using a statistical yield model, we quantify the direct impact of extremes on crop yields and farm revenues. Extreme events during drought cause an average annual damage of €781 million, accounting for 45 % of reported revenue losses. The insights can help develop better strategies for managing and mitigating the effects of future climate extremes.
Marie-Luise Zenker, Philip Bubeck, and Annegret H. Thieken
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2837–2856, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2837-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2837-2024, 2024
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Despite the visible flood damage, mental health is a growing concern. Yet, there is limited data in Germany on mental health impacts after floods. A survey in a heavily affected region revealed that 28 % of respondents showed signs of post-traumatic stress disorder 1 year later. Risk factors include gender, serious injury or illness due to flooding, and feeling left alone to cope with impacts. The study highlights the need for tailored mental health support for flood-affected populations.
Anna Buch, Dominik Paprotny, Kasra Rafiezadeh Shahi, Heidi Kreibich, and Nivedita Sairam
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2340, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2340, 2024
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Many households in Vietnam depend on revenues from microbusinesses (shop-houses). However, losses caused by regular flooding to the microbusinesses are not modelled. Business turnover, building age and water depth are found to be the main drivers of flood losses to microbusinesses. We built and validated probabilistic models (Non-parametric Bayesian Networks) that estimate flood losses to microbusinesses. The results help in flood risk management and adaption decision making for microbusinesses.
Mohsen Ghafory-Ashtiany and Hooman Motamed
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2707–2726, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2707-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2707-2024, 2024
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Iranian insurers have been offering earthquake coverage since the 1990s. However, despite international best practices, they still do not use modern methods for risk pricing and management. As such, they seem to be accumulating seismic risk over time. This paper examines the viability of this market in Iran by comparing the local market practices with international best practices in earthquake risk pricing (catastrophe modeling) and insurance risk management (European Solvency II regime).
Pujun Liang, Jie Yin, Dandan Wang, Yi Lu, Yuhan Yang, Dan Gao, and Jianfeng Mai
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-88, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-88, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
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Addressing coastal city flood risks, this article examines relief logistics planning, employing a GIS-network analysis and optimization model to minimize costs and dissatisfaction. The investigation, grounded in Shanghai's emergency infrastructure and flood relief logistics framework, presents feasible distribution strategies. Meanwhile, the case study indicates that the supply levels of Emergency Flood Shelters and Emergency Reserve Warehouses vary in different coastal flood scenarios.
Silvia De Angeli, Lorenzo Villani, Giulio Castelli, Maria Rusca, Giorgio Boni, Elena Bresci, and Luigi Piemontese
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2207, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2207, 2024
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Despite droughts are deeply intertwined within sociohydrological systems, traditional top-down approaches often ignore those directly affected. By integrating insights from five research fields, we present a framework to guide the co-creation of knowledge for drought impact assessment. Emphasizing social dynamics and power imbalances, the framework guides a more inclusive approach to drought assessment and adaptation.
Javier Revilla Diez, Roxana Leitold, Van Tran, and Matthias Garschagen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2425–2440, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2425-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2425-2024, 2024
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Micro-businesses, often overlooked in adaptation research, show surprising willingness to contribute to collective adaptation despite limited finances and local support. Based on a study in Ho Chi Minh City in Vietnam, approximately 70 % are ready for awareness campaigns, and 39 % would provide financial support if costs were shared. These findings underscore the need for increased involvement of micro-businesses in local adaptation plans to enhance collective adaptive capacity.
Kang He, Qing Yang, Xinyi Shen, Elias Dimitriou, Angeliki Mentzafou, Christina Papadaki, Maria Stoumboudi, and Emmanouil N. Anagnostou
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2375–2382, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2375-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2375-2024, 2024
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About 820 km2 of agricultural land was inundated in central Greece due to Storm Daniel. A detailed analysis revealed that the crop most affected by the flooding was cotton; the inundated area of more than 282 km2 comprised ~ 30 % of the total area planted with cotton in central Greece. In terms of livestock, we estimate that more than 14 000 ornithoids and 21 500 sheep and goats were affected. Consequences for agriculture and animal husbandry in Greece are expected to be severe.
Hannes Lauer, Carmeli Marie C. Chaves, Evelyn Lorenzo, Sonia Islam, and Jörn Birkmann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2243–2261, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2243-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2243-2024, 2024
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In many urban areas, people face high exposure to hazards. Resettling them to safer locations becomes a major strategy, not least because of climate change. This paper dives into the success factors of government-led resettlement in Manila and finds surprising results which challenge the usual narrative and fuel the conversation on resettlement as an adaptation strategy. Contrary to expectations, the location – whether urban or rural – of the new home is less important than safety from floods.
Marina Batalini de Macedo, Marcos Roberto Benso, Karina Simone Sass, Eduardo Mario Mendiondo, Greicelene Jesus da Silva, Pedro Gustavo Câmara da Silva, Elisabeth Shrimpton, Tanaya Sarmah, Da Huo, Michael Jacobson, Abdullah Konak, Nazmiye Balta-Ozkan, and Adelaide Cassia Nardocci
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2165–2173, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2165-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2165-2024, 2024
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With climate change, societies increasingly need to adapt to deal with more severe droughts and the impacts they can have on food production. To make better adaptation decisions, drought resilience indicators can be used. To build these indicators, surveys with experts can be done. However, designing surveys is a costly process that can influence how experts respond. In this communication, we aim to deal with the challenges encountered in the development of surveys to help further research.
Nimra Iqbal, Marvin Ravan, Zina Mitraka, Joern Birkmann, Sue Grimmond, Denise Hertwig, Nektarios Chrysoulakis, Giorgos Somarakis, and Angela Wendnagel-Beck
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1907, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1907, 2024
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This work deepens the understanding of how perceived heat stress, human vulnerability (e.g. age, income) and adaptive capacities (e.g. green, shaded spaces) are coupled with urban structures. The results show that perceived heat stress decreases with distance from urban center, however, human vulnerability and adaptive capacities depend stronger on inner-variations and differences between urban structures. Planning policies and adaptation strategies should account for these differences.
Vakhitkhan Alikhanovich Ismailov, Sharofiddin Ismatullayevich Yodgorov, Akhror Sabriddinovich Khusomiddinov, Eldor Makhmadiyorovich Yadigarov, Bekzod Uktamovich Aktamov, and Shuhrat Bakhtiyorovich Avazov
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2133–2146, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2133-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2133-2024, 2024
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For the basis of seismic risk assessment, maps of seismic intensity increment and an improved map of seismic hazard have been developed, taking into account the engineering-geological conditions of the territory of Uzbekistan and the seismic characteristics of soils. For seismic risk map development, databases were created based on geographic information system platforms, allowing us to systematize and evaluate the regional distribution of information.
Harkunti Pertiwi Rahayu, Khonsa Indana Zulfa, Dewi Nurhasanah, Richard Haigh, Dilanthi Amaratunga, and In In Wahdiny
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2045–2064, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2045-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2045-2024, 2024
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Transboundary flood risk management in the Ciliwung River basin is placed in a broader context of disaster management, environmental science, and governance. This is particularly relevant for areas of research involving the management of shared water resources, the impact of regional development on flood risk, and strategies to reduce economic losses from flooding.
Lichen Yu, Hao Qin, Shining Huang, Wei Wei, Haoyu Jiang, and Lin Mu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2003–2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2003-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2003-2024, 2024
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This paper proposes a quantitative storm surge risk assessment method for data-deficient regions. A coupled model is used to simulate five storm surge scenarios. Deep learning is used to extract building footprints. Economic losses are calculated by combining adjusted depth–damage functions with inundation simulation results. Zoning maps illustrate risk levels based on economic losses, aiding in disaster prevention measures to reduce losses in coastal areas.
Alessa Truedinger, Joern Birkmann, Mark Fleischhauer, and Celso Ferreira
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1607, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1607, 2024
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In post-disaster reconstruction, emphasis should be placed on critical and sensitive infrastructures. In Germany as in other countries, sensitive infrastructures have not yet been focused on – therefore, we developed a method for determining the risk sensitive infrastructures are facing in the context of riverine and pluvial flooding. The easy-to-use assessment framework can be applied to various sensitive infrastructures, e.g. to qualify and accelerate decisions in the reconstruction process.
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Short summary
The article provides a comparison of a standard (deterministic) risk assessment approach for roads exposed to a multi-hazard environment with a probabilistic risk analysis method to show the potential bias in the results. A probabilistic approach enables the quantification of epistemic uncertainty and uses probability distributions to characterize data uncertainty of the input variables, while a deterministic computation uses single values with discrete values without uncertainty representation.
The article provides a comparison of a standard (deterministic) risk assessment approach for...
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