Articles | Volume 20, issue 11
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3135–3160, 2020
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-3135-2020
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3135–3160, 2020
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-3135-2020

Research article 27 Nov 2020

Research article | 27 Nov 2020

Multi-hazard risk assessment for roads: probabilistic versus deterministic approaches

Stefan Oberndorfer et al.

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ASTRA: Naturgefahren auf Nationalstraßen: Risikokonzept, Methodik für eine risikobasierende Beurteilung, Prävention und Bewältigung von gravitativen Naturgefahren auf Nationalstraßen V2.10, Bundesamt für Straßen (ASTRA), Bern, Switzerland, 98 pp., 2012. 
Austrian Standards International: Protection works for torrent control – Terms and their definitions as well as classification, ONR 24800:2009 02 15, Austrian Standards International, Vienna, 2009. 
Austrian Standards International: Permanent technical avalanche protection – Terms, definition, static and dynamic load assumptions, ONR 24805:2010 06 01, Austrian Standards International, Vienna, 2010. 
Austrian Standards International: Technical protection against rockfall – Terms and definitions, effects of actions, design, monitoring and maintenance, ONR 24810:2017 02 15, Austrian Standards International, Vienna, 2017. 
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Short summary
The article provides a comparison of a standard (deterministic) risk assessment approach for roads exposed to a multi-hazard environment with a probabilistic risk analysis method to show the potential bias in the results. A probabilistic approach enables the quantification of epistemic uncertainty and uses probability distributions to characterize data uncertainty of the input variables, while a deterministic computation uses single values with discrete values without uncertainty representation.
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