Articles | Volume 20, issue 11
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3135–3160, 2020
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-3135-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3135–3160, 2020
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-3135-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article 27 Nov 2020
Research article | 27 Nov 2020
Multi-hazard risk assessment for roads: probabilistic versus deterministic approaches
Stefan Oberndorfer et al.
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Mark Bawa Malgwi, Sven Fuchs, and Margreth Keiler
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2067–2090, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2067-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2067-2020, 2020
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Mitigation planning and economic loss assessment generally rely on flood damage prediction models. However, unavailability of empirical data has limited the use of such models in data-scarce areas. This paper combines the vulnerability indicator and damage grade approach to develop a conceptual framework for predicting building damage in data-scarce regions. The framework can be implemented using only expert knowledge and facilitates transferability of flood damage models in data-scarce areas.
Matthias Schlögl, Gerald Richter, Michael Avian, Thomas Thaler, Gerhard Heiss, Gernot Lenz, and Sven Fuchs
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 201–219, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-201-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-201-2019, 2019
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Landslides are destructive events, threatening the integrity of land transport systems. This paper presents how road networks are vulnerable to landslides, with emphasis on the consequences for affected road users. Results show the merits of using agent-based traffic modelling to assess the impacts of road network interruptions on rural communities by providing insights into the characteristics of the population affected and the effects on its daily routine in terms of detour costs.
Sven Fuchs, Margreth Keiler, and Thomas Glade
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 1203–1206, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-1203-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-1203-2017, 2017
Sven Fuchs, Konstantinos Karagiorgos, Kyriaki Kitikidou, Fotios Maris, Spyridon Paparrizos, and Thomas Thaler
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3183–3198, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-3183-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-3183-2017, 2017
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Flood risk management often overlooks public perception of the hazard, and, therefore, many risk management plans have failed. This paper examines the private adaptation capacity and willingness with respect to flood hazards as one reason for this failure. Based on the results of our case studies in Greece, key issues to be addressed were identified and improvements are being recommended for the social dimension surrounding the implementation of flood risk management plans.
S. Fuchs, M. Keiler, and A. Zischg
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 2127–2142, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-2127-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-2127-2015, 2015
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A spatially explicit object-based temporal assessment of buildings and citizens exposed to natural hazards in Austria is presented, including elements at risk of river flooding, torrential flooding, and snow avalanches. It is shown that the repeatedly stated assumption of increasing losses due to continued population growth and related increase in assets has to be opposed to the local development of building stock, which is spatially and temporally variable.
B. Mazzorana, S. Simoni, C. Scherer, B. Gems, S. Fuchs, and M. Keiler
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 3817–3836, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-3817-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-3817-2014, 2014
Related subject area
Risk Assessment, Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies, Socioeconomic and Management Aspects
A simulation–optimization framework for post-disaster allocation of mental health resources
Lessons learned about the importance of raising risk awareness in the Mediterranean region (north Morocco and west Sardinia, Italy)
Stochastic system dynamics modelling for climate change water scarcity assessment of a reservoir in the Italian Alps
Multiple hazards and risk perceptions over time: the availability heuristic in Italy and Sweden under COVID-19
Review article: Mapping the adaptation solution space – lessons from Jakarta
Risk perception of local stakeholders on natural hazards: implications for theory and practice
Brief communication: Effective earthquake early warning systems: appropriate messaging and public awareness roles
Flood–pedestrian simulator for modelling human response dynamics during flood-induced evacuation: Hillsborough stadium case study
Review article: Brief history of volcanic risk in the Neapolitan area (Campania, southern Italy): a critical review
Are interactions important in estimating flood damage to economic entities? The case of wine-making in France
Residential building stock modelling for mainland China targeted for seismic risk assessment
Longitudinal survey data for diversifying temporal dynamics in flood risk modelling
Flood and drought risk assessment for agricultural areas (Tagus Estuary, Portugal)
An inventory of Alpine drought impact reports to explore past droughts in a mountain region
The potential of machine learning for weather index insurance
Brief communication: Radar images for monitoring informal urban settlements in vulnerable zones in Lima, Peru
Multi-scenario urban flood risk assessment by integrating future land use change models and hydrodynamic models
Indirect flood impacts and cascade risk across interdependent linear infrastructures
Predicting social and health vulnerability to floods in Bangladesh
Residential flood loss estimated from Bayesian multilevel models
Review article: A systematic review and future prospects of flood vulnerability indices
Interacting effects of land-use change and natural hazards on rice agriculture in the Mekong and Red River deltas in Vietnam
About the return period of a catastrophe
Establishment and characteristics analysis of a crop–drought vulnerability curve: a case study of European winter wheat
Review article: Towards a context-driven research: a state-of-the-art review of resilience research on climate change
Spatialized flood resilience measurement in rapidly urbanized coastal areas with a complex semi-arid environment in northern Morocco
Strategies for adapting to hazards and environmental inequalities in coastal urban areas: what kind of resilience for these territories?
Are OpenStreetMap building data useful for flood vulnerability modelling?
Assessing and zoning of typhoon storm surge risk with a geographic information system (GIS) technique: a case study of the coastal area of Huizhou
Regional tropical cyclone impact functions for globally consistent risk assessments
Comparing an insurer's perspective on building damages with modelled damages from pan-European winter windstorm event sets: a case study from Zurich, Switzerland
Probabilistic characterisation of coastal storm-induced risks using Bayesian networks
A glimpse into the future of exposure and vulnerabilities in cities? Modelling of residential location choice of urban population with random forest
Invited perspectives: Building sustainable and resilient communities – recommended actions for natural hazard scientists
Design of parametric risk transfer solutions for volcanic eruptions: an application to Japanese volcanoes
Cost-benefit analysis of coastal flood defence measures in the North Adriatic Sea
Tropical drought risk: estimates combining gridded vulnerability and hazard data
Are flood damage models converging to “reality”? Lessons learnt from a blind test
Brief Communication: Simple-INSYDE, development of a new tool for flood damage evaluation from an existing synthetic model
A novel approach to assessing nuisance risk from seismicity induced by UK shale gas development, with implications for future policy design
Rapid flood risk screening model for compound flood events in Beira, Mozambique
Trends in social vulnerability to storm surges in Shenzhen, China
Exploring the changes in risk perceptions and adaptation behaviors based on various socioeconomic characteristics before and after earthquake disasters – a case study in Taiwan
Anthropogenic climate change and glacier lake outburst flood risk: local and global drivers and responsibilities for the case of lake Palcacocha, Peru
Flood vulnerability and risk assessment of urban traditional buildings in a heritage district of Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia
A generic physical vulnerability model for floods: review and concept for data-scarce regions
Natural hazard impacts on transport infrastructure in Russia
Spatial seismic hazard variation and adaptive sampling of portfolio location uncertainty in probabilistic seismic risk analysis
Induced seismicity risk analysis of the hydraulic stimulation of a geothermal well on Geldinganes, Iceland
Enhancing the operational value of snowpack models with visualization design principles
Stephen Cunningham, Steven Schuldt, Christopher Chini, and Justin Delorit
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3843–3862, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3843-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3843-2021, 2021
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The severity of disaster-induced mental health illness outcomes varies based on factors such as socioeconomic standing, age, and degree of exposure. This research proposes a resource allocation framework allowing decision-makers the capability to assess the capacity and scalability of early, intermediate, and long-term mental health treatment and recovery. Ultimately, this framework can inform policy and operational decisions based on community needs and constrained resources post-disaster.
Ante Ivčević, Hubert Mazurek, Lionel Siame, Raquel Bertoldo, Vania Statzu, Kamal Agharroud, Isabel Estrela Rego, Nibedita Mukherjee, and Olivier Bellier
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3749–3765, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3749-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3749-2021, 2021
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The results from two Mediterranean case studies, in north Morocco and west Sardinia, confirm the importance of interdisciplinarity and risk awareness sessions for risk management. The policy literature and interviews held with the administration, associations and scientists indicate that although recognised, the importance of risk awareness sessions is not necessarily put into practice. As a consequence, this could lead to a failure of risk management policy.
Stefano Terzi, Janez Sušnik, Stefan Schneiderbauer, Silvia Torresan, and Andrea Critto
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3519–3537, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3519-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3519-2021, 2021
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This study combines outputs from multiple models with statistical assessments of past and future water availability and demand for the Santa Giustina reservoir (Autonomous Province of Trento, Italy). Considering future climate change scenarios, results show high reductions for stored volume and turbined water, with increasing frequency, duration and severity. These results call for the need to adapt to reductions in water availability and effects on the Santa Giustina reservoir management.
Giuliano Di Baldassarre, Elena Mondino, Maria Rusca, Emanuele Del Giudice, Johanna Mård, Elena Ridolfi, Anna Scolobig, and Elena Raffetti
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3439–3447, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3439-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3439-2021, 2021
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COVID-19 has affected humankind in an unprecedented way, and it has changed how people perceive multiple risks. In this paper, we compare public risk perceptions in Italy and Sweden in two different phases of the pandemic. We found that people are more worried about risks related to recently experienced events. This finding is in line with the availability heuristic: individuals assess the risk associated with a given hazard based on how easily it comes to their mind.
Mia Wannewitz and Matthias Garschagen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3285–3322, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3285-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3285-2021, 2021
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Focusing on Jakarta as a city with high flood risk and adaptation pressure, this study presents findings from a systematic literature review of adaptation options and the adaptation solution space to counter the city’s flood problem. Results indicate that the perceived solution space is skewed towards protection against flooding, while soft and hybrid adaptation options are less considered. This significantly influences flood risk management, including its effectiveness and sustainability.
Mihai Ciprian Mărgărint, Mihai Niculiță, Giulia Roder, and Paolo Tarolli
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3251–3283, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3251-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3251-2021, 2021
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Local stakeholders' knowledge plays a deciding role in emergencies, supporting rescue officers in natural hazard events; coordinating; and assisting, both physically and psychologically, the affected populations. Their risk perception was assessed using a questionnaire for an area in north-eastern Romania. The results show low preparedness and reveal substantial distinctions among stakeholders and different risks based on their cognitive and behavioral roles in their communities.
Meng Zhang, Xue Qiao, Barnabas C. Seyler, Baofeng Di, Yuan Wang, and Ya Tang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3243–3250, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3243-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3243-2021, 2021
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Earthquake early warning systems (EEWSs) can help reduce losses, but their effectiveness depends on adequate public perception and understanding of EEWSs. This study examined the performance of the EEWS in China's Sichuan Province during the 2019 Changning earthquake. We found a big gap existed between the EEWS's message, the public's perception of it, and their response. The study highlights the importance of gauging EEWS alert effectiveness and public participation for long-term resiliency.
Mohammad Shirvani and Georges Kesserwani
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3175–3198, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3175-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3175-2021, 2021
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Flooding in and around urban hubs can stress people. Immediate evacuation is a usual countermeasure taken at the onset of a flooding event. The flood–pedestrian simulator simulates evacuation of people prior to and during a flood event. It provides information on the spatio-temporal responses of individuals, evacuation time, and possible safe destinations. This study demonstrates the simulator when considering more realistic human body and age characteristics and responses to floodwater.
Stefano Carlino
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3097–3112, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3097-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3097-2021, 2021
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This paper reports a brief history of volcanic risk in the Neapolitan district, where the presence of three active volcanoes (Vesuvius, Campi Flegrei caldera and Ischia island) exposes this highly urbanized area to hazard of potential eruptions. I am trying to obtain new food for thought for the scientific community working to mitigate the volcanic risk of this area, revisiting about 40 years of debates around volcanic risk in Naples.
David Nortes Martínez, Frédéric Grelot, Pauline Brémond, Stefano Farolfi, and Juliette Rouchier
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3057–3084, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3057-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3057-2021, 2021
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Estimating flood damage, although crucial for assessing flood risk and for designing mitigation policies, continues to face numerous challenges, notably the assessment of indirect damage. We focus on flood damage induced by the interactions between economic activities. By modeling the production processes of a cooperative wine-making system, we show that these interactions are important depending on their spatial and temporal characteristics.
Danhua Xin, James Edward Daniell, Hing-Ho Tsang, and Friedemann Wenzel
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3031–3056, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3031-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3031-2021, 2021
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A grid-level residential building stock model (in terms of floor area and replacement value) targeted for seismic risk analysis for mainland China is developed by using census and population density data. Comparisons with previous studies and yearbook records indicate the reliability of our model. The modelled results are openly accessible and can be conveniently updated when more detailed census or statistics data are available.
Elena Mondino, Anna Scolobig, Marco Borga, and Giuliano Di Baldassarre
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2811–2828, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2811-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2811-2021, 2021
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Survey data collected over time can provide new insights on how different people respond to floods and can be used in models to study the complex coevolution of human–water systems. We present two methods to collect such data, and we compare the respective results. Risk awareness decreases only for women, while preparedness takes different trajectories depending on the damage suffered. These results support a more diverse representation of society in flood risk modelling and risk management.
Paula Freire, Marta Rodrigues, André B. Fortunato, and Alberto Freitas
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2503–2521, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2503-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2503-2021, 2021
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This paper presents a risk assessment approach addressing the two main natural risks that affect agricultural estuarine lowlands: the scarcity of freshwater for irrigation and marine submersion. The approach is applied to an important agricultural area located in the Tagus Estuary (Portugal). Results show that the approach is appropriate to support risk owners in taking actions to mitigate the risk mainly when the possible impact of climate change in risk levels is considered.
Ruth Stephan, Mathilde Erfurt, Stefano Terzi, Maja Žun, Boštjan Kristan, Klaus Haslinger, and Kerstin Stahl
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2485–2501, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2485-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2485-2021, 2021
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The Alpine Drought Impact report Inventory (EDIIALPS) archives drought impact reports across the European Alpine region with an increasing number of impacts over time. The most affected sectors are agriculture and livestock farming and public water supply, for which management strategies are essential for future climate regimes. We show spatial heterogeneity and seasonal differences between the impacted sectors and between impacts triggered by soil moisture drought and hydrological drought.
Luigi Cesarini, Rui Figueiredo, Beatrice Monteleone, and Mario L. V. Martina
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2379–2405, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2379-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2379-2021, 2021
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Weather index insurance is an innovative program used to manage the risk associated with natural disasters, providing instantaneous financial support to the insured party. This paper proposes a methodology that exploits the power of machine learning to identify extreme events for which a payout from the insurance could be delivered. The improvements achieved using these algorithms are an encouraging step forward in the promotion and implementation of this insurance instrument.
Luis Moya, Fernando Garcia, Carlos Gonzales, Miguel Diaz, Carlos Zavala, Miguel Estrada, Fumio Yamazaki, Shunichi Koshimura, Erick Mas, and Bruno Adriano
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2021-153, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2021-153, 2021
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
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Informal occupation of unused lands for settlements is a critical issue in Peru. In most cases, such areas are unsafe against natural hazards. We performed a time-series analysis of Sentinel-1 images at recent informal settlements in Lima city. The result suggests that a low-cost and sustainable monitoring system of informal settlements can be implemented.
Qinke Sun, Jiayi Fang, Xuewei Dang, Kepeng Xu, Yongqiang Fang, Xia Li, and Min Liu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2021-200, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2021-200, 2021
Revised manuscript under review for NHESS
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Flooding by extreme weather events and human activities can lead to catastrophic impacts in coastal areas. The research illustrates the importance of assessing the performance of different future urban development scenarios in response to climate change, and the simulation study of urban risks will prove to decision-makers that incorporating disaster prevention measures into urban development plans will help reduce disaster losses and improve the ability of urban systems to respond to floods.
Chiara Arrighi, Maria Pregnolato, and Fabio Castelli
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1955–1969, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1955-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1955-2021, 2021
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Floods may affect critical infrastructure which provides essential services to people. We analyse the impact of floods on road networks and water supply systems, and we investigate how cascade effects propagate if interdependencies among networks are not considered. The analysis shows that if preparedness plans include information on accessibility to key sections of water supply plants, less people suffer from water shortage in case of flood. The method is tested in the city of Florence (Italy).
Donghoon Lee, Hassan Ahmadul, Jonathan Patz, and Paul Block
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1807–1823, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1807-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1807-2021, 2021
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This article assesses the thematic and composite social and health vulnerability of Bangladesh to floods. Tailored vulnerability, weighted by flood forecast and satellite inundation, can be used to predict the massive impacts of the August 2017 flood event. This approach has several advantages and practical implications, including the potential to promote targeted and coordinated disaster management and health practices.
Guilherme S. Mohor, Annegret H. Thieken, and Oliver Korup
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1599–1614, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1599-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1599-2021, 2021
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We explored differences in the damaging process across different flood types, regions within Germany, and six flood events through a numerical model in which the groups can learn from each other. Differences were found mostly across flood types, indicating the importance of identifying them, but there is great overlap across regions and flood events, indicating either that socioeconomic or temporal information was not well represented or that they are in fact less different within our cases.
Luana Lavagnoli Moreira, Mariana Madruga de Brito, and Masato Kobiyama
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1513–1530, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1513-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1513-2021, 2021
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The review of flood vulnerability indices revealed that (1) temporal dynamic aspects were often disregarded, (2) coping and adaptive capacity indicators were frequently ignored, as obtaining these data demand time and effort, and (3) most studies neither applied sensitivity (90.5 %) or uncertainty analyses (96.8 %) nor validated the results (86.3 %). The study highlights the importance of addressing these gaps to produce scientifically rigorous and comparable research.
Kai Wan Yuen, Tang Thi Hanh, Vu Duong Quynh, Adam D. Switzer, Paul Teng, and Janice Ser Huay Lee
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1473–1493, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1473-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1473-2021, 2021
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We used flow diagrams to represent the ways in which anthropogenic land use and natural hazards have affected rice production in the two
mega-deltas of Vietnam. Anthropogenic developments meant to improve productivity may create negative feedbacks on rice production and quality. Natural hazards further amplify problems created by human activities. A systems-thinking approach can yield nuanced perspectives for tackling environmental challenges.
Mathias Raschke
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2021-86, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2021-86, 2021
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
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As derived from extreme value theory (part of stochastic), the occurrence of natural catastrophes can be quantified stochastically by the combined return period (CRP), the (weighted) mean of local return periods. This can be tested during application as shown for extratropical cyclones (winter storms) over Germany. Moreover, the risk curve (return period of losses) can be estimated easily. This and the influence of the regime of spatial dependence is also demonstrated in the example.
Yanshen Wu, Hao Guo, Anyu Zhang, and Jing'ai Wang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1209–1228, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1209-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1209-2021, 2021
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To improve the quantitative degree of spatial analysis of vulnerability, we construct grid-scale drought vulnerability curves of European winter wheat based on model simulation, and we discuss their spatial differences through feature points and clustering features. These vulnerability curves show zonal differences, which can be divided into five loss types, and the vulnerability increases from south to north. The results can provide guidance for regionalized risk management.
Ringo Ossewaarde, Tatiana Filatova, Yola Georgiadou, Andreas Hartmann, Gül Özerol, Karin Pfeffer, Peter Stegmaier, Rene Torenvlied, Mascha van der Voort, Jord Warmink, and Bas Borsje
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1119–1133, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1119-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1119-2021, 2021
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The aim of this paper is to review and structure current developments in resilience research in the field of climate change studies, in terms of the approaches, definitions, models, and commitments that are typical for naturalist and constructivist research and propose a research agenda of topics distilled from current developments in resilience research.
Narjiss Satour, Otmane Raji, Nabil El Moçayd, Ilias Kacimi, and Nadia Kassou
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1101–1118, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1101-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1101-2021, 2021
Nathalie Long, Pierre Cornut, and Virginia Kolb
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1087–1100, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1087-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1087-2021, 2021
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Climate change is leading to an increase in extreme events and enforces the development of adaptation strategies to face coastal risk. These strategies modify the inequalities barely considered during the decision-making process and question the resilience of these territories. On the French Atlantic coast, the study reveals that the
managed retreatstrategy seems the most sustainable over time, while the
holding the coastlinestrategy reinforces inequalities and costs for the whole society.
Marco Cerri, Max Steinhausen, Heidi Kreibich, and Kai Schröter
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 643–662, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-643-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-643-2021, 2021
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Effective flood management requires information about the potential consequences of flooding. We show how openly accessible data from OpenStreetMap can support the estimation of flood damage for residential buildings. Working with methods of machine learning, the building geometry is used to predict flood damage in combination with information about inundation depth. Our approach makes it easier to transfer models to regions where no detailed data of flood impacts have been observed yet.
Si Wang, Lin Mu, Zhenfeng Yao, Jia Gao, Enjin Zhao, and Lizhe Wang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 439–462, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-439-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-439-2021, 2021
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The study provides a comprehensive assessment and zonation of hazard, vulnerability, and risk of storm surge caused by the designed typhoon scenarios in the coastal area of Huizhou. The risk maps can help decision-makers to develop evacuation strategies to minimize civilian casualties. The risk analysis can be utilized to identify risk regions to reduce economic losses. The proposed methodology and procedure can be applied to any coastal city in China for making risk assessments.
Samuel Eberenz, Samuel Lüthi, and David N. Bresch
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 393–415, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-393-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-393-2021, 2021
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Asset damage caused by tropical cyclones is often computed based on impact functions mapping wind speed to damage. However, a lack of regional impact functions can lead to a substantial bias in tropical cyclone risk estimates. Here, we present regionally calibrated impact functions, as well as global risk estimates. Our results are relevant for researchers, model developers, and practitioners in the context of global risk assessments, climate change adaptation, and physical risk disclosure.
Christoph Welker, Thomas Röösli, and David N. Bresch
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 279–299, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-279-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-279-2021, 2021
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How representative are local building insurers' claims to assess winter windstorm risk? In our case study of Zurich, we use a risk model for windstorm building damages and compare three different inputs: insurance claims and historical and probabilistic windstorm datasets. We find that long-term risk is more robustly assessed based on windstorm datasets than on claims data only. Our open-access method allows European building insurers to complement their risk assessment with modelling results.
Marc Sanuy and Jose A. Jiménez
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 219–238, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-219-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-219-2021, 2021
Sebastian Scheuer, Dagmar Haase, Annegret Haase, Manuel Wolff, and Thilo Wellmann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 203–217, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-203-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-203-2021, 2021
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The choice of residential location is one of the drivers shaping risks in cities. We model likely outcomes of this decision-making process for distinct socioeconomic groups in the city of Leipzig, Germany, using random forests and geostatistical methods. In so doing, we uncover hot spots and cold spots that may indicate spatial patterns and trends in exposure and vulnerabilities of urban population, to shed light on how residential location choice affects these risk components as a process.
Joel C. Gill, Faith E. Taylor, Melanie J. Duncan, Solmaz Mohadjer, Mirianna Budimir, Hassan Mdala, and Vera Bukachi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 187–202, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-187-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-187-2021, 2021
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This paper draws on the experiences of seven early career scientists, in different sectors and contexts, to explore the improved integration of natural hazard science into broader efforts to reduce the likelihood and impacts of disasters. We include recommendations for natural hazard scientists, to improve education, training, and research design and to strengthen institutional, financial, and policy actions. We hope to provoke discussion and catalyse changes that will help reduce disaster risk.
Delioma Oramas-Dorta, Giulio Tirabassi, Guillermo Franco, and Christina Magill
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 99–113, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-99-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-99-2021, 2021
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Large volcanic eruptions are rare events; however, they may cause significant economic losses. This work explores a specific type of insurance (parametric insurance) applied to such events. Unlike traditional insurance where payouts occur after often lengthy loss assessments, this type of insurance makes automatic and prompt payments on the basis of the eruption attaining threshold values for objective and easily measurable characteristics (height and direction of the eruption column).
Mattia Amadio, Arthur H. Essenfelder, Stefano Bagli, Sepehr Marzi, Paolo Mazzoli, Jaroslav Mysiak, and Stephen Roberts
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-414, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-414, 2021
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
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In this study we estimate the impacts of sea level rise on extreme sea level events over the North Adriatic Italian coast up to 2100, and perform a cost-benefit analysis of planned or proposed coastal renovation projects. Our findings represent a useful indication for urban planners and risk researchers all around the world, helping to understand the importance of investing in adaptation and estimating the economic return of that investments.
Alexandra Nauditt, Kerstin Stahl, Erasmo Rodríguez, Christian Birkel, Rosa Maria Formiga-Johnsson, Kallio Marko, Hamish Hann, Lars Ribbe, Oscar M. Baez-Villanueva, and Joschka Thurner
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-360, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-360, 2020
Manuscript not accepted for further review
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Recurrent droughts are causing severe damages to tropical countries. We used gridded drought hazard and vulnerability data sets to map drought risk in four mesoscale rural tropical study regions in Latin America and Vietnam/Cambodia. Our risk maps clearly identified drought risk hotspots and displayed spatial and sector-wise distribution of hazard and vulnerability. As results were confirmed by local stakeholders our approach provides relevant information for drought managers in the Tropics.
Daniela Molinari, Anna Rita Scorzini, Chiara Arrighi, Francesca Carisi, Fabio Castelli, Alessio Domeneghetti, Alice Gallazzi, Marta Galliani, Frédéric Grelot, Patric Kellermann, Heidi Kreibich, Guilherme S. Mohor, Markus Mosimann, Stephanie Natho, Claire Richert, Kai Schroeter, Annegret H. Thieken, Andreas Paul Zischg, and Francesco Ballio
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2997–3017, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2997-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2997-2020, 2020
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Flood risk management requires a realistic estimation of flood losses. However, the capacity of available flood damage models to depict real damages is questionable. With a joint effort of eight research groups, the objective of this study was to compare the performances of nine models for the estimation of flood damage to buildings. The comparison provided more objective insights on the transferability of the models and on the reliability of their estimations.
Marta Galliani, Daniela Molinari, and Francesco Ballio
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2937–2941, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2937-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2937-2020, 2020
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INSYDE is a multivariable synthetic model for flood damage assessment of dwellings. The analysis and use of this model highlighted some weaknesses, linked to its complexity, that can undermine its usability and correct implementation. This study proposes a simplified version of INSYDE which maintains its multivariable and synthetic nature but has simpler mathematical formulations permitting an easier use and a direct analysis of the relation between damage and its explanatory variables.
Gemma Cremen and Maximilian J. Werner
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2701–2719, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2701-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2701-2020, 2020
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We develop a framework that links the volume of hydraulic fracturing fluid injected during shale gas exploration with the likelihood that resulting seismicity causes a nuisance to nearby populations. We apply the framework to a shale gas site in England and find that the potential of a given injected volume to produce nuisance ground motions is especially sensitive to assumptions about the amount of seismic energy released during operations. The work can inform policy on shale gas exploration.
Erik C. van Berchum, Mathijs van Ledden, Jos S. Timmermans, Jan H. Kwakkel, and Sebastiaan N. Jonkman
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2633–2646, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2633-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2633-2020, 2020
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Flood risk management is especially complicated in coastal cities. The complexity of multiple flood hazards in a rapidly changing urban environment leads to a situation with many different potential measures and future scenarios. This research demonstrates a new model capable of quickly simulating flood impact and comparing many different strategies. This is applied to the city of Beira, where it was able to provide new insights into the local flood risk and potential strategies.
Huaming Yu, Yuhang Shen, Ryan M. Kelly, Xin Qi, Kejian Wu, Songlin Li, Haiqing Yu, and Xianwen Bao
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2447–2462, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2447-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2447-2020, 2020
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This study establishes an indicator system for social vulnerability evaluation of storm surges for coastal cities. The indicator system is applied to Shenzhen, China, and socioeconomic impacts are discovered in the results. Exposure, sensitivity, and resilience all show an increasing trend from 1986 to 2016, as resilience accounts for the largest increase and is connected to a decreasing social vulnerability trend.
Tzu-Ling Chen, Tzu-Yuan Chao, and Hao-Teng Cheng
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2433–2446, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2433-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2433-2020, 2020
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Although disaster experience does indeed play an important role in helping people become aware of earthquake risk, disaster experience does not necessarily increase people’s willingness to retrofit their houses. People with higher education and certain occupations represent those who might have more available resources, and therefore they might become more willing to prepare for and respond to disasters.
Christian Huggel, Mark Carey, Adam Emmer, Holger Frey, Noah Walker-Crawford, and Ivo Wallimann-Helmer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2175–2193, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2175-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2175-2020, 2020
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There is increasing interest and need to analyze the contribution of anthropogenic climate change to negative impacts of climate change. We study the case of glacial lake Palcacocha in Peru, which poses a significant flood risk to the city of Huaraz. We found that greenhouse gas emissions; strong urbanization processes without appropriate land use planning; and social, cultural, political, and institutional factors all contribute to the existing flood risk.
Dina D'Ayala, Kai Wang, Yuan Yan, Helen Smith, Ashleigh Massam, Valeriya Filipova, and Joy Jacqueline Pereira
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2221–2241, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2221-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2221-2020, 2020
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A localized empirical model consisting of multilevel parameters has been built to evaluate the flood vulnerability of residential buildings in a heritage community of Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. A new economic loss model is developed to quantify the flood risk in terms of replacement cost, taking into account both specific vulnerability and a normalized depth–damage ratio function. The findings provide multiscale flood-resistant strategies for the protection of individual residential buildings.
Mark Bawa Malgwi, Sven Fuchs, and Margreth Keiler
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2067–2090, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2067-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2067-2020, 2020
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Mitigation planning and economic loss assessment generally rely on flood damage prediction models. However, unavailability of empirical data has limited the use of such models in data-scarce areas. This paper combines the vulnerability indicator and damage grade approach to develop a conceptual framework for predicting building damage in data-scarce regions. The framework can be implemented using only expert knowledge and facilitates transferability of flood damage models in data-scarce areas.
Elena Petrova
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1969–1983, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1969-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1969-2020, 2020
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Using the information of the author's database, contributions of natural hazards and adverse weather to occurrences of different types of transport accidents and traffic disruptions including road, railway, air, and water transport were revealed. Regional differences in the risk of transport accidents and traffic disruptions caused by adverse natural impacts between Russian federal regions were found. The resulting maps were created and analyzed. Regions most at risk were identified.
Christoph Scheingraber and Martin Käser
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1903–1918, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1903-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1903-2020, 2020
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Probabilistic seismic risk analysis is widely used in the insurance industry to model losses to insured portfolios by earthquake events. Risk items are often only known to be located within an administrative geographical zone, but precise coordinates remain unknown to the modeler. We analyze spatial seismic hazard and loss rate variation inside administrative zones in western Indonesia. Building upon this, we present a novel framework for efficient treatment of portfolio location uncertainty.
Marco Broccardo, Arnaud Mignan, Francesco Grigoli, Dimitrios Karvounis, Antonio Pio Rinaldi, Laurentiu Danciu, Hannes Hofmann, Claus Milkereit, Torsten Dahm, Günter Zimmermann, Vala Hjörleifsdóttir, and Stefan Wiemer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1573–1593, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1573-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1573-2020, 2020
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This study presents a first-of-its-kind pre-drilling probabilistic induced seismic risk analysis for the Geldinganes (Iceland) deep-hydraulic stimulation. The results of the assessment indicate that the individual risk within a radius of 2 km around the injection point is below the safety limits. However, the analysis is affected by a large variability due to the presence of pre-drilling deep uncertainties. This suggests the need for online risk updating during the stimulation.
Simon Horton, Stan Nowak, and Pascal Haegeli
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1557–1572, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1557-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1557-2020, 2020
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Numeric snowpack models currently offer limited value to operational avalanche forecasters. To improve the relevance and interpretability of model data, we introduce and discuss visualization principles that map model data into visual representations that can inform avalanche hazard assessments.
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Short summary
The article provides a comparison of a standard (deterministic) risk assessment approach for roads exposed to a multi-hazard environment with a probabilistic risk analysis method to show the potential bias in the results. A probabilistic approach enables the quantification of epistemic uncertainty and uses probability distributions to characterize data uncertainty of the input variables, while a deterministic computation uses single values with discrete values without uncertainty representation.
The article provides a comparison of a standard (deterministic) risk assessment approach for...
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