Articles | Volume 20, issue 11
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3135–3160, 2020
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-3135-2020
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3135–3160, 2020
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-3135-2020

Research article 27 Nov 2020

Research article | 27 Nov 2020

Multi-hazard risk assessment for roads: probabilistic versus deterministic approaches

Stefan Oberndorfer et al.

Related authors

A generic physical vulnerability model for floods: review and concept for data-scarce regions
Mark Bawa Malgwi, Sven Fuchs, and Margreth Keiler
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2067–2090, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2067-2020,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2067-2020, 2020
Short summary
On the nexus between landslide susceptibility and transport infrastructure – an agent-based approach
Matthias Schlögl, Gerald Richter, Michael Avian, Thomas Thaler, Gerhard Heiss, Gernot Lenz, and Sven Fuchs
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 201–219, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-201-2019,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-201-2019, 2019
Short summary
Editorial to the special issue on resilience and vulnerability assessments in natural hazard and risk analysis
Sven Fuchs, Margreth Keiler, and Thomas Glade
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 1203–1206, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-1203-2017,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-1203-2017, 2017
Flood risk perception and adaptation capacity: a contribution to the socio-hydrology debate
Sven Fuchs, Konstantinos Karagiorgos, Kyriaki Kitikidou, Fotios Maris, Spyridon Paparrizos, and Thomas Thaler
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3183–3198, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-3183-2017,https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-3183-2017, 2017
Short summary
A spatiotemporal multi-hazard exposure assessment based on property data
S. Fuchs, M. Keiler, and A. Zischg
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 2127–2142, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-2127-2015,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-2127-2015, 2015
Short summary

Related subject area

Risk Assessment, Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies, Socioeconomic and Management Aspects
Comparing an insurer's perspective on building damages with modelled damages from pan-European winter windstorm event sets: a case study from Zurich, Switzerland
Christoph Welker, Thomas Röösli, and David N. Bresch
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 279–299, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-279-2021,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-279-2021, 2021
Short summary
Probabilistic characterisation of coastal storm-induced risks using Bayesian networks
Marc Sanuy and Jose A. Jiménez
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 219–238, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-219-2021,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-219-2021, 2021
A glimpse into the future of exposure and vulnerabilities in cities? Modelling of residential location choice of urban population with random forest
Sebastian Scheuer, Dagmar Haase, Annegret Haase, Manuel Wolff, and Thilo Wellmann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 203–217, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-203-2021,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-203-2021, 2021
Short summary
Invited perspectives: Building sustainable and resilient communities – recommended actions for natural hazard scientists
Joel C. Gill, Faith E. Taylor, Melanie J. Duncan, Solmaz Mohadjer, Mirianna Budimir, Hassan Mdala, and Vera Bukachi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 187–202, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-187-2021,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-187-2021, 2021
Short summary
Design of parametric risk transfer solutions for volcanic eruptions: an application to Japanese volcanoes
Delioma Oramas-Dorta, Giulio Tirabassi, Guillermo Franco, and Christina Magill
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 99–113, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-99-2021,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-99-2021, 2021
Short summary

Cited articles

Apel, H., Thieken, A. H., Merz, B., and Blöschl, G.: Flood risk assessment and associated uncertainty, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 4, 295–308, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-4-295-2004, 2004. 
ASTRA: Naturgefahren auf Nationalstraßen: Risikokonzept, Methodik für eine risikobasierende Beurteilung, Prävention und Bewältigung von gravitativen Naturgefahren auf Nationalstraßen V2.10, Bundesamt für Straßen (ASTRA), Bern, Switzerland, 98 pp., 2012. 
Austrian Standards International: Protection works for torrent control – Terms and their definitions as well as classification, ONR 24800:2009 02 15, Austrian Standards International, Vienna, 2009. 
Austrian Standards International: Permanent technical avalanche protection – Terms, definition, static and dynamic load assumptions, ONR 24805:2010 06 01, Austrian Standards International, Vienna, 2010. 
Austrian Standards International: Technical protection against rockfall – Terms and definitions, effects of actions, design, monitoring and maintenance, ONR 24810:2017 02 15, Austrian Standards International, Vienna, 2017. 
Download
Short summary
The article provides a comparison of a standard (deterministic) risk assessment approach for roads exposed to a multi-hazard environment with a probabilistic risk analysis method to show the potential bias in the results. A probabilistic approach enables the quantification of epistemic uncertainty and uses probability distributions to characterize data uncertainty of the input variables, while a deterministic computation uses single values with discrete values without uncertainty representation.
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint