Articles | Volume 19, issue 12
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2855-2019
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2855-2019
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
18 Dec 2019
Research article |
| 18 Dec 2019
| 18 Dec 2019
Changes in flood damage with global warming on the eastern coast of Spain
Department of Applied Physics, University of Barcelona, 08028 Barcelona, Spain
Water Research Institute (IdRA), University of Barcelona, 08001 Barcelona, Spain
Marco Turco
Barcelona Supercomputing Center (BSC), 08034 Barcelona, Spain
Now at: Regional Atmospheric Modeling (MAR) Group, Department of Physics, University of Murcia, 30100 Murcia, Spain
Philip Ward
Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM), Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, 1081 HV Amsterdam, the Netherlands
Josep A. Sánchez-Espigares
Department of Statistics and Operations Research, Polytechnic University of Catalonia, 08028 Barcelona, Spain
Lorenzo Alfieri
European Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC), Ispra, Italy
Maria Carmen Llasat
Department of Applied Physics, University of Barcelona, 08028 Barcelona, Spain
Water Research Institute (IdRA), University of Barcelona, 08001 Barcelona, Spain
Related authors
Maria Cortès, Marco Turco, Montserrat Llasat-Botija, and Maria Carmen Llasat
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 857–868, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-857-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-857-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
The aim of this study is to develop and evaluate a methodology to estimate surface water flood damages from heavy precipitation in the Mediterranean region of study. The relationship between precipitation and insurance data has been assessed, using logistic regression models, to assess the probability of large monetary damages in relation to heavy precipitation events. Results show that our model is able to simulate the probability of a damaging event as a function of precipitation.
Arnau Amengual, Romu Romero, María Carmen Llasat, Alejandro Hermoso, and Montserrat Llasat-Botija
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2215–2242, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2215-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2215-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
On 22 October 2019, the Francolí River basin experienced a heavy precipitation event, resulting in a catastrophic flash flood. Few studies comprehensively address both the physical and human dimensions and their interrelations during extreme flash flooding. This research takes a step forward towards filling this gap in knowledge by examining the alignment among all these factors.
Irene Benito, Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts, Philip J. Ward, Dirk Eilander, and Sanne Muis
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1354, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1354, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Global flood models are key for mitigating coastal flooding impacts, yet they still have limitations to provide actionable insights locally. We present a multiscale framework that couples dynamic water level and flood models, and bridges between fully global and local modelling approaches. We apply it to three storms to present the merits of a multiscale approach. Our findings reveal that the importance of model refinements varies based on the study area characteristics and the storm’s nature.
Eric Mortensen, Timothy Tiggeloven, Toon Haer, Bas van Bemmel, Dewi Le Bars, Sanne Muis, Dirk Eilander, Frederiek Sperna Weiland, Arno Bouwman, Willem Ligtvoet, and Philip J. Ward
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1381–1400, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1381-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1381-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Current levels of coastal flood risk are projected to increase in coming decades due to various reasons, e.g. sea-level rise, land subsidence, and coastal urbanization: action is needed to minimize this future risk. We evaluate dykes and coastal levees, foreshore vegetation, zoning restrictions, and dry-proofing on a global scale to estimate what levels of risk reductions are possible. We demonstrate that there are several potential adaptation pathways forward for certain areas of the world.
Lorenzo Alfieri, Andrea Libertino, Lorenzo Campo, Francesco Dottori, Simone Gabellani, Tatiana Ghizzoni, Alessandro Masoero, Lauro Rossi, Roberto Rudari, Nicola Testa, Eva Trasforini, Ahmed Amdihun, Jully Ouma, Luca Rossi, Yves Tramblay, Huan Wu, and Marco Massabò
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 199–224, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-199-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-199-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This work describes Flood-PROOFS East Africa, an impact-based flood forecasting system for the Greater Horn of Africa. It is based on hydrological simulations, inundation mapping, and estimation of population and assets exposed to upcoming river floods. The system supports duty officers in African institutions in the daily monitoring of hydro-meteorological disasters. A first evaluation shows the system performance for the catastrophic floods in the Nile River basin in summer 2020.
Sadhana Nirandjan, Elco E. Koks, Mengqi Ye, Raghav Pant, Kees C. H. van Ginkel, Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts, and Philip J. Ward
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-208, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-208, 2024
Revised manuscript under review for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
Critical infrastructures (CI) are exposed to natural hazards, which may result in significant damage and burden society. The vulnerability is a key determinant for reducing these risks, yet crucial information is scattered in literature. Our study reviews over 1,250 fragility and vulnerability curves for CI assets, creating a unique publicly available physical vulnerability database that can directly be used for hazard risk assessments, including floods, earthquakes, windstorms and landslides.
Viet Dung Nguyen, Jeroen Aerts, Max Tesselaar, Wouter Boutzen, Heidi Kreibich, Lorenzo Alfieri, and Bruno Merz
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2862, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2862, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Our study explored how seasonal flood forecasts could enhance insurance premium accuracy. Insurers traditionally rely on historical data, yet climate fluctuations influence flood risk. We employed a method that predicts seasonal floods to adjust premiums accordingly. Our findings showed significant year-to-year variations in flood risk and premiums, underscoring the importance of adaptability. Despite limitations, this research aids insurers in preparing for evolving risks.
María Carmen Llasat, Montserrat Llasat-Botija, Erika Pardo, Raül Marcos-Matamoros, and Marc Lemus-Canovas
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-206, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-206, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
Climate change is leading in the Pyrenees Massif to a change in socioeconomic increasing their sensitivity to natural risks such as floods. However, until now, no systematic study like this one had been carried out that would allow evaluating the frequency, distribution and main meteorological features of these events on a massif scale. In 35 years there have been 181 flood events that have produced 154 fatalities.
Dirk Eilander, Anaïs Couasnon, Frederiek C. Sperna Weiland, Willem Ligtvoet, Arno Bouwman, Hessel C. Winsemius, and Philip J. Ward
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2251–2272, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2251-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2251-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This study presents a framework for assessing compound flood risk using hydrodynamic, impact, and statistical modeling. A pilot in Mozambique shows the importance of accounting for compound events in risk assessments. We also show how the framework can be used to assess the effectiveness of different risk reduction measures. As the framework is based on global datasets and is largely automated, it can easily be applied in other areas for first-order assessments of compound flood risk.
Job C. M. Dullaart, Sanne Muis, Hans de Moel, Philip J. Ward, Dirk Eilander, and Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1847–1862, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1847-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1847-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Coastal flooding is driven by storm surges and high tides and can be devastating. To gain an understanding of the threat posed by coastal flooding and to identify areas that are especially at risk, now and in the future, it is crucial to accurately model coastal inundation and assess the coastal flood hazard. Here, we present a global dataset with hydrographs that represent the typical evolution of an extreme sea level. These can be used to model coastal inundation more accurately.
Heidi Kreibich, Kai Schröter, Giuliano Di Baldassarre, Anne F. Van Loon, Maurizio Mazzoleni, Guta Wakbulcho Abeshu, Svetlana Agafonova, Amir AghaKouchak, Hafzullah Aksoy, Camila Alvarez-Garreton, Blanca Aznar, Laila Balkhi, Marlies H. Barendrecht, Sylvain Biancamaria, Liduin Bos-Burgering, Chris Bradley, Yus Budiyono, Wouter Buytaert, Lucinda Capewell, Hayley Carlson, Yonca Cavus, Anaïs Couasnon, Gemma Coxon, Ioannis Daliakopoulos, Marleen C. de Ruiter, Claire Delus, Mathilde Erfurt, Giuseppe Esposito, Didier François, Frédéric Frappart, Jim Freer, Natalia Frolova, Animesh K. Gain, Manolis Grillakis, Jordi Oriol Grima, Diego A. Guzmán, Laurie S. Huning, Monica Ionita, Maxim Kharlamov, Dao Nguyen Khoi, Natalie Kieboom, Maria Kireeva, Aristeidis Koutroulis, Waldo Lavado-Casimiro, Hong-Yi Li, Maria Carmen LLasat, David Macdonald, Johanna Mård, Hannah Mathew-Richards, Andrew McKenzie, Alfonso Mejia, Eduardo Mario Mendiondo, Marjolein Mens, Shifteh Mobini, Guilherme Samprogna Mohor, Viorica Nagavciuc, Thanh Ngo-Duc, Huynh Thi Thao Nguyen, Pham Thi Thao Nhi, Olga Petrucci, Nguyen Hong Quan, Pere Quintana-Seguí, Saman Razavi, Elena Ridolfi, Jannik Riegel, Md Shibly Sadik, Nivedita Sairam, Elisa Savelli, Alexey Sazonov, Sanjib Sharma, Johanna Sörensen, Felipe Augusto Arguello Souza, Kerstin Stahl, Max Steinhausen, Michael Stoelzle, Wiwiana Szalińska, Qiuhong Tang, Fuqiang Tian, Tamara Tokarczyk, Carolina Tovar, Thi Van Thu Tran, Marjolein H. J. van Huijgevoort, Michelle T. H. van Vliet, Sergiy Vorogushyn, Thorsten Wagener, Yueling Wang, Doris E. Wendt, Elliot Wickham, Long Yang, Mauricio Zambrano-Bigiarini, and Philip J. Ward
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 2009–2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-2009-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-2009-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
As the adverse impacts of hydrological extremes increase in many regions of the world, a better understanding of the drivers of changes in risk and impacts is essential for effective flood and drought risk management. We present a dataset containing data of paired events, i.e. two floods or two droughts that occurred in the same area. The dataset enables comparative analyses and allows detailed context-specific assessments. Additionally, it supports the testing of socio-hydrological models.
Dirk Eilander, Anaïs Couasnon, Tim Leijnse, Hiroaki Ikeuchi, Dai Yamazaki, Sanne Muis, Job Dullaart, Arjen Haag, Hessel C. Winsemius, and Philip J. Ward
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 823–846, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-823-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-823-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In coastal deltas, flooding can occur from interactions between coastal, riverine, and pluvial drivers, so-called compound flooding. Global models however ignore these interactions. We present a framework for automated and reproducible compound flood modeling anywhere globally and validate it for two historical events in Mozambique with good results. The analysis reveals differences in compound flood dynamics between both events related to the magnitude of and time lag between drivers.
Paolo Scussolini, Job Dullaart, Sanne Muis, Alessio Rovere, Pepijn Bakker, Dim Coumou, Hans Renssen, Philip J. Ward, and Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts
Clim. Past, 19, 141–157, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-141-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-141-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We reconstruct sea level extremes due to storm surges in a past warmer climate. We employ a novel combination of paleoclimate modeling and global ocean hydrodynamic modeling. We find that during the Last Interglacial, about 127 000 years ago, seasonal sea level extremes were indeed significantly different – higher or lower – on long stretches of the global coast. These changes are associated with different patterns of atmospheric storminess linked with meridional shifts in wind bands.
Giulia Bruno, Doris Duethmann, Francesco Avanzi, Lorenzo Alfieri, Andrea Libertino, and Simone Gabellani
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2022-416, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2022-416, 2022
Manuscript not accepted for further review
Short summary
Short summary
Hydrological models often have issues during droughts. We used the distributed Continuum model over the Po river basin and independent datasets of streamflow (Q), evapotranspiration (ET), and storage. Continuum simulated Q well during wet years and moderate droughts. Performances declined for a severe drought and we explained this drop with an increased uncertainty in ET anomalies in human-affected croplands. These findings provide guidelines for assessments of model robustness during droughts.
Andrea Taramelli, Margherita Righini, Emiliana Valentini, Lorenzo Alfieri, Ignacio Gatti, and Simone Gabellani
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3543–3569, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3543-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3543-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This work aims to support decision-making processes to prioritize effective interventions for flood risk reduction and mitigation for the implementation of flood risk management concepts in urban areas. Our findings provide new insights into vulnerability spatialization of urban flood events for the residential sector, demonstrating that the nature of flood pathways varies spatially and is influenced by landscape characteristics, as well as building features.
Jaime Gaona, Pere Quintana-Seguí, María José Escorihuela, Aaron Boone, and María Carmen Llasat
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3461–3485, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3461-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3461-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Droughts represent a particularly complex natural hazard and require explorations of their multiple causes. Part of the complexity has roots in the interaction between the continuous changes in and deviation from normal conditions of the atmosphere and the land surface. The exchange between the atmospheric and surface conditions defines feedback towards dry or wet conditions. In semi-arid environments, energy seems to exceed water in its impact over the evolution of conditions, favoring drought.
Lorenzo Alfieri, Francesco Avanzi, Fabio Delogu, Simone Gabellani, Giulia Bruno, Lorenzo Campo, Andrea Libertino, Christian Massari, Angelica Tarpanelli, Dominik Rains, Diego G. Miralles, Raphael Quast, Mariette Vreugdenhil, Huan Wu, and Luca Brocca
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 3921–3939, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-3921-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-3921-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This work shows advances in high-resolution satellite data for hydrology. We performed hydrological simulations for the Po River basin using various satellite products, including precipitation, evaporation, soil moisture, and snow depth. Evaporation and snow depth improved a simulation based on high-quality ground observations. Interestingly, a model calibration relying on satellite data skillfully reproduces observed discharges, paving the way to satellite-driven hydrological applications.
Weihua Zhu, Kai Liu, Ming Wang, Philip J. Ward, and Elco E. Koks
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1519–1540, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1519-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1519-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We present a simulation framework to analyse the system vulnerability and risk of the Chinese railway system to floods. To do so, we develop a method for generating flood events at both the national and river basin scale. Results show flood system vulnerability and risk of the railway system are spatially heterogeneous. The event-based approach shows how we can identify critical hotspots, taking the first steps in developing climate-resilient infrastructure.
Philip J. Ward, James Daniell, Melanie Duncan, Anna Dunne, Cédric Hananel, Stefan Hochrainer-Stigler, Annegien Tijssen, Silvia Torresan, Roxana Ciurean, Joel C. Gill, Jana Sillmann, Anaïs Couasnon, Elco Koks, Noemi Padrón-Fumero, Sharon Tatman, Marianne Tronstad Lund, Adewole Adesiyun, Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts, Alexander Alabaster, Bernard Bulder, Carlos Campillo Torres, Andrea Critto, Raúl Hernández-Martín, Marta Machado, Jaroslav Mysiak, Rene Orth, Irene Palomino Antolín, Eva-Cristina Petrescu, Markus Reichstein, Timothy Tiggeloven, Anne F. Van Loon, Hung Vuong Pham, and Marleen C. de Ruiter
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1487–1497, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1487-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1487-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The majority of natural-hazard risk research focuses on single hazards (a flood, a drought, a volcanic eruption, an earthquake, etc.). In the international research and policy community it is recognised that risk management could benefit from a more systemic approach. In this perspective paper, we argue for an approach that addresses multi-hazard, multi-risk management through the lens of sustainability challenges that cut across sectors, regions, and hazards.
Francesco Dottori, Lorenzo Alfieri, Alessandra Bianchi, Jon Skoien, and Peter Salamon
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 1549–1569, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-1549-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-1549-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We present a set of hazard maps for river flooding for Europe and the Mediterranean basin. The maps depict inundation extent and depth for flood probabilities for up to 1-in-500-year flood hazards and are based on hydrological and hydrodynamic models driven by observed climatology. The maps can identify two-thirds of the flood extent reported by official flood maps, with increasing skill for higher-magnitude floods. The maps are used for evaluating present and future impacts of river floods.
Animesh K. Gain, Yves Bühler, Pascal Haegeli, Daniela Molinari, Mario Parise, David J. Peres, Joaquim G. Pinto, Kai Schröter, Ricardo M. Trigo, María Carmen Llasat, and Heidi Kreibich
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 985–993, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-985-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-985-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
To mark the 20th anniversary of Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS), an interdisciplinary and international journal dedicated to the public discussion and open-access publication of high-quality studies and original research on natural hazards and their consequences, we highlight 11 key publications covering major subject areas of NHESS that stood out within the past 20 years.
Dirk Eilander, Willem van Verseveld, Dai Yamazaki, Albrecht Weerts, Hessel C. Winsemius, and Philip J. Ward
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 5287–5313, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5287-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5287-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Digital elevation models and derived flow directions are crucial to distributed hydrological modeling. As the spatial resolution of models is typically coarser than these data, we need methods to upscale flow direction data while preserving the river structure. We propose the Iterative Hydrography Upscaling (IHU) method and show it outperforms other often-applied methods. We publish the multi-resolution MERIT Hydro IHU hydrography dataset and the algorithm as part of the pyflwdir Python package.
Marleen Carolijn de Ruiter, Anaïs Couasnon, and Philip James Ward
Geosci. Commun., 4, 383–397, https://doi.org/10.5194/gc-4-383-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gc-4-383-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Many countries can get hit by different hazards, such as earthquakes and floods. Generally, measures and policies are aimed at decreasing the potential damages of one particular hazard type despite their potential of having unwanted effects on other hazard types. We designed a serious game that helps professionals to improve their understanding of these potential negative effects of measures and policies that reduce the impacts of disasters across many different hazard types.
Marc Sanuy, Tomeu Rigo, José A. Jiménez, and M. Carmen Llasat
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 3759–3781, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3759-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3759-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
This paper is a preliminary study to characterize events of simultaneous heavy rainfall and damaging waves at the regional scale (~600 km of coastline) in the NW Mediterranean. The atmospheric pressure conditions of such events are also classified into three main weather types, which are characterized in terms of severity of the forcing and probability of co-occurrence of simultaneous hazardous waves and rain. The study also presents some historical cases that are compared with obtained results.
Jerom P. M. Aerts, Steffi Uhlemann-Elmer, Dirk Eilander, and Philip J. Ward
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3245–3260, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-3245-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-3245-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We compare and analyse flood hazard maps from eight global flood models that represent the current state of the global flood modelling community. We apply our comparison to China as a case study, and for the first time, we include industry models, pluvial flooding, and flood protection standards. We find substantial variability between the flood hazard maps in the modelled inundated area and exposed gross domestic product (GDP) across multiple return periods and in expected annual exposed GDP.
Shaun Harrigan, Ervin Zsoter, Lorenzo Alfieri, Christel Prudhomme, Peter Salamon, Fredrik Wetterhall, Christopher Barnard, Hannah Cloke, and Florian Pappenberger
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 12, 2043–2060, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-2043-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-2043-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
A new river discharge reanalysis dataset is produced operationally by coupling ECMWF's latest global atmospheric reanalysis, ERA5, with the hydrological modelling component of the Global Flood Awareness System (GloFAS). The GloFAS-ERA5 reanalysis is a global gridded dataset with a horizontal resolution of 0.1° at a daily time step and is freely available from 1979 until near real time. The evaluation against observations shows that the GloFAS-ERA5 reanalysis was skilful in 86 % of catchments.
Paolo De Luca, Gabriele Messori, Davide Faranda, Philip J. Ward, and Dim Coumou
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 793–805, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-793-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-793-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
In this paper we quantify Mediterranean compound temperature and precipitation dynamical extremes (CDEs) over the 1979–2018 period. The strength of the temperature–precipitation coupling during summer increased and is driven by surface warming. We also link the CDEs to compound hot–dry and cold–wet events during summer and winter respectively.
Olga Petrucci, Luigi Aceto, Cinzia Bianchi, Victoria Bigot, Rudolf Brázdil, Moshe Inbar, Abdullah Kahraman, Özgenur Kılıç, Vassiliki Kotroni, Maria Carmen Llasat, Montserrat Llasat-Botija, Michele Mercuri, Katerina Papagiannaki, Susana Pereira, Jan Řehoř, Joan Rossello Geli, Paola Salvati, Freddy Vinet, and José Luis Zêzere
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2020-154, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2020-154, 2020
Preprint withdrawn
Short summary
Short summary
EUFF 2020 database (EUropean Flood Fatalities-FF) contains 2483 flood fatalities (1980–2018) occurred in 8 countries. Gender, age, activity of FF and dynamics of accidents were obtained from documentary sources. 64.8 % of FF were killed by floods killing less than 10 people. Males were more numerous than females due higher proportion of them driving and working outdoors. FF 30–64 years old died traveling to home/work, driving vehicles dragged by water. Elderly people were trapped indoor by flood.
Philip J. Ward, Veit Blauhut, Nadia Bloemendaal, James E. Daniell, Marleen C. de Ruiter, Melanie J. Duncan, Robert Emberson, Susanna F. Jenkins, Dalia Kirschbaum, Michael Kunz, Susanna Mohr, Sanne Muis, Graeme A. Riddell, Andreas Schäfer, Thomas Stanley, Ted I. E. Veldkamp, and Hessel C. Winsemius
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1069–1096, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1069-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1069-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We review the scientific literature on natural hazard risk assessments at the global scale. In doing so, we examine similarities and differences between the approaches taken across the different hazards and identify potential ways in which different hazard communities can learn from each other. Finally, we discuss opportunities for learning from methods and approaches being developed and applied to assess natural hazard risks at more continental or regional scales.
Timothy Tiggeloven, Hans de Moel, Hessel C. Winsemius, Dirk Eilander, Gilles Erkens, Eskedar Gebremedhin, Andres Diaz Loaiza, Samantha Kuzma, Tianyi Luo, Charles Iceland, Arno Bouwman, Jolien van Huijstee, Willem Ligtvoet, and Philip J. Ward
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1025–1044, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1025-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1025-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We present a framework to evaluate the benefits and costs of coastal adaptation through dikes to reduce future flood risk. If no adaptation takes place, we find that global coastal flood risk increases 150-fold by 2080, with sea-level rise contributing the most. Moreover, 15 countries account for 90 % of this increase; that adaptation shows high potential to cost-effectively reduce flood risk. The results will be integrated into the Aqueduct Global Flood Analyzer web tool.
Anaïs Couasnon, Dirk Eilander, Sanne Muis, Ted I. E. Veldkamp, Ivan D. Haigh, Thomas Wahl, Hessel C. Winsemius, and Philip J. Ward
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 489–504, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-489-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-489-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
When a high river discharge coincides with a high storm surge level, this can exarcebate flood level, depth, and duration, resulting in a so-called compound flood event. These events are not currently included in global flood models. In this research, we analyse the timing and correlation between modelled discharge and storm surge level time series in deltas and estuaries. Our results provide a first indication of regions along the global coastline with a high compound flooding potential.
Damián Insua-Costa, Gonzalo Miguez-Macho, and María Carmen Llasat
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3885–3900, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-3885-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-3885-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Here, we study the main moisture sources of the two famous western Mediterranean flood events of autumn 1982 (October and November). Results confirm the hypothesis that a large amount of precipitable water was involved, which was to a great extent advected from the tropics and subtropics. This remote moisture transport occurred at medium levels of the atmosphere via moisture plumes or atmospheric rivers. During the October event the contribution of local sources was also important.
Johanna Englhardt, Hans de Moel, Charles K. Huyck, Marleen C. de Ruiter, Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts, and Philip J. Ward
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1703–1722, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1703-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1703-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Large-scale risk assessments can be improved by a more direct relation between the type of exposed buildings and their flood impact. Compared to the common land-use-based approach, this model reflects heterogeneous structures and defines building-material-based vulnerability classes. This approach is particularly interesting for areas with large variations of building types, such as developing countries and large scales, and enables vulnerability comparison across different natural disasters.
Shiqiang Du, Xiaotao Cheng, Qingxu Huang, Ruishan Chen, Philip J. Ward, and Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 715–719, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-715-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-715-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
A mega-flood in 1998 caused tremendous losses in China and triggered major policy adjustments in flood-risk management. This paper rethinks these policy adjustments and discusses how China should adapt to newly emerging flood challenges. We suggest that China needs novel flood-risk management approaches to address the new challenges from rapid urbanization and climate change. These include risk-based urban planning and a coordinated water governance system.
Giuliano Di Baldassarre, Heidi Kreibich, Sergiy Vorogushyn, Jeroen Aerts, Karsten Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Marlies Barendrecht, Paul Bates, Marco Borga, Wouter Botzen, Philip Bubeck, Bruna De Marchi, Carmen Llasat, Maurizio Mazzoleni, Daniela Molinari, Elena Mondino, Johanna Mård, Olga Petrucci, Anna Scolobig, Alberto Viglione, and Philip J. Ward
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 5629–5637, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-5629-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-5629-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
One common approach to cope with floods is the implementation of structural flood protection measures, such as levees. Numerous scholars have problematized this approach and shown that increasing levels of flood protection can generate a false sense of security and attract more people to the risky areas. We briefly review the literature on this topic and then propose a research agenda to explore the unintended consequences of structural flood protection.
Anouk I. Gevaert, Ted I. E. Veldkamp, and Philip J. Ward
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 4649–4665, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-4649-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-4649-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Drought is a natural hazard that has severe environmental and socioeconomic impacts around the globe. Here, we quantified the time taken for drought to propagate from precipitation droughts to soil moisture and streamflow droughts. Results show that propagation timescales are strongly related to climate type, with fast responses in tropical regions and slow responses in arid regions. Insight into the timescales of drought propagation globally may help improve seasonal drought forecasting.
Maria Cortès, Marco Turco, Montserrat Llasat-Botija, and Maria Carmen Llasat
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 857–868, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-857-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-857-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
The aim of this study is to develop and evaluate a methodology to estimate surface water flood damages from heavy precipitation in the Mediterranean region of study. The relationship between precipitation and insurance data has been assessed, using logistic regression models, to assess the probability of large monetary damages in relation to heavy precipitation events. Results show that our model is able to simulate the probability of a damaging event as a function of precipitation.
Antoine Colmet-Daage, Emilia Sanchez-Gomez, Sophie Ricci, Cécile Llovel, Valérie Borrell Estupina, Pere Quintana-Seguí, Maria Carmen Llasat, and Eric Servat
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 673–687, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-673-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-673-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Here, the first assessment of future changes in extreme precipitation in small Mediterranean watersheds is done through three watersheds frequently subjected to flash floods. Collaboration between Spanish and French laboratories enabled us to conclude that the intensity of high precipitation will increase at the end of the century. A high degree of confidence results from the multi-model approach used here with eight regional climate models (RCMs) developed in the Med and Euro-CORDEX project.
Marleen C. de Ruiter, Philip J. Ward, James E. Daniell, and Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 1231–1251, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-1231-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-1231-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
This study provides cross-discipline lessons for earthquake and flood vulnerability assessment methods by comparing indicators used in both fields. It appears that there is potential for improvement of these methods that can be obtained for both earthquake and flood vulnerability assessment indicators. This increased understanding is beneficial for both scientists as well as practitioners working with earthquake and/or flood vulnerability assessment methods.
Francesco Dottori, Milan Kalas, Peter Salamon, Alessandra Bianchi, Lorenzo Alfieri, and Luc Feyen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 1111–1126, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-1111-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-1111-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
We present a method to use river flow forecasts to estimate the impacts of flood events in terms of flood-prone areas, economic damage, cities and population at risk. We tested our method by simulating the catastrophic floods occurred in May 2014 in Southern Europe. Comparison with observed data shows that our simulations can predict flooded areas and flood impacts well in advance. The method is now being used for real-time risk forecasts to help emergency response and management.
Lorenzo Mentaschi, Michalis Vousdoukas, Evangelos Voukouvalas, Ludovica Sartini, Luc Feyen, Giovanni Besio, and Lorenzo Alfieri
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3527–3547, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-3527-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-3527-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
The climate is subject to variations which must be considered
studying the intensity and frequency of extreme events.
We introduce in this paper a new methodology
for the study of variable extremes, which consists in detecting
the pattern of variability of a time series, and applying these patterns
to the analysis of the extreme events.
This technique comes with advantages with respect to the previous ones
in terms of accuracy, simplicity, and robustness.
Lorenzo Alfieri, Luc Feyen, Peter Salamon, Jutta Thielen, Alessandra Bianchi, Francesco Dottori, and Peter Burek
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 1401–1411, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-1401-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-1401-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
This work couples recent advances in large scale flood hazard mapping into a pan-European flood risk model to estimate the impact of river floods in a seamless simulation, covering more than two decades.
Results of this research are an important contribution in the reconstruction of a complete dataset of flood impact data. Also, it has direct implications in the area of flood early warning with regard to the rapid risk assessment of flood impacts.
Paolo Scussolini, Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts, Brenden Jongman, Laurens M. Bouwer, Hessel C. Winsemius, Hans de Moel, and Philip J. Ward
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 1049–1061, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-1049-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-1049-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Assessments of flood risk, on global to local scales, are becoming more urgent with ongoing climate change and with rapid socioeconomic developments. Such assessments need information about existing flood protection, still largely unavailable. Here we present the first open-source database of FLood PROtection Standards, FLOPROS, which enables more accurate modelling of flood risk. We also invite specialists to contribute new information to this evolving database.
Yus Budiyono, Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts, Daniel Tollenaar, and Philip J. Ward
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 757–774, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-757-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-757-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
The paper describes a model framework for assessing flood risk in Jakarta under current and future scenarios (2030 and 2050) including climate change, sea level rise, land use change, and land subsidence. The results shows individual impact of future changes and serve as a basis to evaluate adaptation strategies in cities. They also show while the impacts of climate change alone on flood risk in Jakarta are highly uncertain, the combined impacts of all drivers reveal a strong increase in risk.
D. Lee, P. Ward, and P. Block
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 4689–4705, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-4689-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-4689-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
This paper presents a global approach to defining high-flow seasons by identifying temporal patterns of streamflow. Simulations of streamflow from the PCR-GLOBWB model are evaluated to define dominant and minor high-flow seasons globally, and verified with GRDC observations and flood records from Dartmouth Flood Observatory.
T. I. E. Veldkamp, S. Eisner, Y. Wada, J. C. J. H. Aerts, and P. J. Ward
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 4081–4098, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-4081-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-4081-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
Freshwater shortage is one of the most important risks, partially driven by climate variability. Here we present a first global scale sensitivity assessment of water scarcity events to El Niño-Southern Oscillation, the most dominant climate variability signal. Given the found correlations, covering a large share of the global land area, and seen the developments of water scarcity impacts under changing socioeconomic conditions, we show that there is large potential for ENSO-based risk reduction.
L. Alfieri, P. Burek, L. Feyen, and G. Forzieri
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2247–2260, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-2247-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-2247-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
This work presents, to our best knowledge, the first pan-European assessment of the future hydro-meteorological hazard based on an ensemble of the new EURO-CORDEX regional climate scenarios.
We propose a novel approach, which shows how the change in the frequency of future floods in Europe is likely to have a larger impact on the overall flood hazard as compared to the change in their magnitude.
A consistent method is proposed to evaluate the agreement of ensemble projections.
A. Barrera-Escoda and M. C. Llasat
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 465–483, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-465-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-465-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
Catastrophic floods (the most severe ones) in Catalonia from 1301 do not show any statistical trend, while extraordinary floods (moderate ones) have increased since 1850 due to a marked increase in developed land and population in small coastal basins.
The most significant flood-rich periods occurred with a strong negative NAO phase.
Solar activity has some impact on changes in catastrophic floods: flood-rich periods in autumn generally occurred during periods of increased solar activity.
A. Jansa, P. Alpert, P. Arbogast, A. Buzzi, B. Ivancan-Picek, V. Kotroni, M. C. Llasat, C. Ramis, E. Richard, R. Romero, and A. Speranza
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 1965–1984, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-1965-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-1965-2014, 2014
J. Hall, B. Arheimer, M. Borga, R. Brázdil, P. Claps, A. Kiss, T. R. Kjeldsen, J. Kriaučiūnienė, Z. W. Kundzewicz, M. Lang, M. C. Llasat, N. Macdonald, N. McIntyre, L. Mediero, B. Merz, R. Merz, P. Molnar, A. Montanari, C. Neuhold, J. Parajka, R. A. P. Perdigão, L. Plavcová, M. Rogger, J. L. Salinas, E. Sauquet, C. Schär, J. Szolgay, A. Viglione, and G. Blöschl
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 2735–2772, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-2735-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-2735-2014, 2014
B. Merz, J. Aerts, K. Arnbjerg-Nielsen, M. Baldi, A. Becker, A. Bichet, G. Blöschl, L. M. Bouwer, A. Brauer, F. Cioffi, J. M. Delgado, M. Gocht, F. Guzzetti, S. Harrigan, K. Hirschboeck, C. Kilsby, W. Kron, H.-H. Kwon, U. Lall, R. Merz, K. Nissen, P. Salvatti, T. Swierczynski, U. Ulbrich, A. Viglione, P. J. Ward, M. Weiler, B. Wilhelm, and M. Nied
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 1921–1942, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-1921-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-1921-2014, 2014
L. Barbería, J. Amaro, M. Aran, and M. C. Llasat
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 1843–1852, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-1843-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-1843-2014, 2014
L. Alfieri, F. Pappenberger, and F. Wetterhall
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 1505–1515, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-1505-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-1505-2014, 2014
B. Jongman, E. E. Koks, T. G. Husby, and P. J. Ward
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 1245–1255, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-1245-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-1245-2014, 2014
M. C. Llasat, M. Turco, P. Quintana-Seguí, and M. Llasat-Botija
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 427–441, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-427-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-427-2014, 2014
P. J. Ward, S. Eisner, M. Flörke, M. D. Dettinger, and M. Kummu
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 47–66, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-47-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-47-2014, 2014
M. C. Llasat, M. Llasat-Botija, O. Petrucci, A. A. Pasqua, J. Rosselló, F. Vinet, and L. Boissier
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 13, 1337–1350, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-1337-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-1337-2013, 2013
H. C. Winsemius, L. P. H. Van Beek, B. Jongman, P. J. Ward, and A. Bouwman
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 1871–1892, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-1871-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-1871-2013, 2013
L. Alfieri, P. Burek, E. Dutra, B. Krzeminski, D. Muraro, J. Thielen, and F. Pappenberger
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 1161–1175, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-1161-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-1161-2013, 2013
M. Turco, M. C. Llasat, A. Tudela, X. Castro, and A. Provenzale
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 13, 649–652, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-649-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-649-2013, 2013
B. Jongman, H. Kreibich, H. Apel, J. I. Barredo, P. D. Bates, L. Feyen, A. Gericke, J. Neal, J. C. J. H. Aerts, and P. J. Ward
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 12, 3733–3752, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-12-3733-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-12-3733-2012, 2012
Related subject area
Atmospheric, Meteorological and Climatological Hazards
Characterizing hail-prone environments using convection-permitting reanalysis and overshooting top detections over south-central Europe
Aircraft engine dust ingestion at global airports
Catchment-scale assessment of drought impact on environmental flow in the Indus Basin, Pakistan
The risk of synoptic-scale Arctic cyclones to shipping
Estimation of future rainfall extreme values by temperature-dependent disaggregation of climate model data
Climatic characteristics of the Jianghuai cyclone and its linkage with precipitation during the Meiyu period from 1961 to 2020
Application of the teaching–learning-based optimization algorithm to an analytical model of thunderstorm outflows to analyze the variability of the downburst kinematic and geometric parameters
Projections and uncertainties of winter windstorm damage in Europe in a changing climate
Improving seasonal predictions of German Bight storm activity
A satellite view of the exceptionally warm summer of 2022 over Europe
Demographic yearbooks as a source of weather-related fatalities: the Czech Republic, 1919–2022
FOREWARNS: development and multifaceted verification of enhanced regional-scale surface water flood forecasts
Assessment of wind–damage relations for Norway using 36 years of daily insurance data
Interannual variations in the seasonal cycle of extreme precipitation in Germany and the response to climate change
Climatology of large hail in Europe: characteristics of the European Severe Weather Database
Amplified potential for vegetation stress under climate-change-induced intensifying compound extreme events in the Greater Mediterranean Region
Assimilation of surface pressure observations from personal weather stations in AROME-France
An open-source radar-based hail damage model for buildings and cars
Linkages between atmospheric rivers and humid heat across the United States
Evaluating pySTEPS optical flow algorithms for convection nowcasting over the Maritime Continent using satellite data
The role of citizen science to assess the spatiotemporal pattern of rainfall events in urban areas: a case study in the city of Genoa, Italy
Climate change impacts on regional fire weather in heterogeneous landscapes of central Europe
Insights into ground strike point properties in Europe through the EUCLID Lightning Location System
Surprise floods: the role of our imagination in preparing for disasters
High-resolution projections of ambient heat for major European cities using different heat metrics
Heat wave characteristics: evaluation of regional climate model performances for Germany
Rain-on-snow responses to warmer Pyrenees: a sensitivity analysis using a physically based snow hydrological model
Probabilistic short-range forecasts of high precipitation events: optimal decision thresholds and predictability limits
Intense rains in Israel associated with the 'Train effect'
Precipitation extremes in Ukraine from 1979 to 2019: Climatology, large-scale flow conditions, and moisture sources
Return levels of extreme European windstorms, their dependency on the North Atlantic Oscillation, and potential future risks
Wind as a natural hazard in Poland
Exploring extreme event attribution by using long-running meteorological observations
Climatological occurrences of hail and tornadoes associated with mesoscale convective systems in the United States
Modelling crop hail damage footprints with single-polarization radar: The roles of spatial resolution, hail intensity, and cropland density
Characteristics of cloud-to-ground lightning (CG) and differences between +CG and −CG strokes in China regarding the China National Lightning Detection Network
The climatology and nature of warm-season convective cells in cold-frontal environments over Germany
Forecasting large hail and lightning using additive logistic regression models and the ECMWF reforecasts
The impact of global navigation satellite system (GNSS) zenith total delay data assimilation on the short-term precipitable water vapor and precipitation forecast over Italy using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model
Global estimates of 100-year return values of daily precipitation from ensemble weather prediction data
Shallow and deep learning of extreme rainfall events from convective atmospheres
Linking reported drought impacts with drought indices, water scarcity and aridity: the case of Kenya
Future heat extremes and impacts in a convection-permitting climate ensemble over Germany
Assessment of subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) ensemble extreme precipitation forecast skill over Europe
A long record of European windstorm losses and its comparison to standard climate indices
Assimilation of Meteosat Third Generation (MTG) Lightning Imager (LI) pseudo-observations in AROME-France – proof of concept
A phytoplankton bloom caused by the super cyclonic storm Amphan in the central Bay of Bengal
Apparent contradiction in the projected climatic water balance for Austria: wetter conditions on average versus higher probability of meteorological droughts
A decrease in rockfall probability under climate change conditions in Germany
Trends in heat and cold wave risks for the Italian Trentino-Alto Adige region from 1980 to 2018
Antonio Giordani, Michael Kunz, Kristopher M. Bedka, Heinz Jürgen Punge, Tiziana Paccagnella, Valentina Pavan, Ines M. L. Cerenzia, and Silvana Di Sabatino
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2331–2357, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2331-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2331-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
To improve the challenging representation of hazardous hailstorms, a proxy for hail frequency based on satellite detections, convective parameters from high-resolution reanalysis, and crowd-sourced reports is tested and presented. Hail likelihood peaks in mid-summer at 15:00 UTC over northern Italy and shows improved agreement with observations compared to previous estimates. By separating ambient signatures based on hail severity, enhanced appropriateness for large-hail occurrence is found.
Claire L. Ryder, Clément Bézier, Helen F. Dacre, Rory Clarkson, Vassilis Amiridis, Eleni Marinou, Emmanouil Proestakis, Zak Kipling, Angela Benedetti, Mark Parrington, Samuel Rémy, and Mark Vaughan
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2263–2284, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2263-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2263-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Desert dust poses a hazard to aircraft via degradation of engine components. This has financial implications for the aviation industry and results in increased fuel burn with climate impacts. Here we quantify dust ingestion by aircraft engines at airports worldwide. We find Dubai and Delhi in summer are among the dustiest airports, where substantial engine degradation would occur after 1000 flights. Dust ingestion can be reduced by changing take-off times and the altitude of holding patterns.
Khalil Ur Rahman, Songhao Shang, Khaled Saeed Balkhair, Hamza Farooq Gabriel, Khan Zaib Jadoon, and Kifayat Zaman
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2191–2214, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2191-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2191-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This paper assesses the impact of drought (meteorological drought) on the hydrological alterations in major rivers of the Indus Basin. Threshold regression and range of variability analysis are used to determine the drought severity and times where drought has caused low flows and extreme low flows (identified using indicators of hydrological alterations). Moreover, this study also examines the degree of alterations in river flows due to drought using the hydrological alteration factor.
Alexander Frank Vessey, Kevin I. Hodges, Len C. Shaffrey, and Jonathan J. Day
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2115–2132, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2115-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2115-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The risk posed to ships by Arctic cyclones has seldom been quantified due to the lack of publicly available historical Arctic ship track data. This study investigates historical Arctic ship tracks, cyclone tracks, and shipping incident reports to determine the number of shipping incidents caused by the passage of Arctic cyclones. Results suggest that Arctic cyclones have not been hazardous to ships and that ships are resilient to the rough sea conditions caused by Arctic cyclones.
Niklas Ebers, Kai Schröter, and Hannes Müller-Thomy
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2025–2043, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2025-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2025-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Future changes in sub-daily rainfall extreme values are essential in various hydrological fields, but climate scenarios typically offer only daily resolution. One solution is rainfall generation. With a temperature-dependent rainfall generator climate scenario data were disaggregated to 5 min rainfall time series for 45 locations across Germany. The analysis of the future 5 min rainfall time series showed an increase in the rainfall extremes values for rainfall durations of 5 min and 1 h.
Ran Zhu and Lei Chen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1937–1950, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1937-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1937-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
There is a positive correlation between the frequency of Jianghuai cyclone activity and precipitation during the Meiyu period. Its occurrence frequency has an obvious decadal variation, which corresponds well with the quasi-periodic and decadal variation in precipitation during the Meiyu period. This study provides a reference for the long-term and short-term forecasting of precipitation during the Meiyu period.
Andi Xhelaj and Massimiliano Burlando
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1657–1679, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1657-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1657-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The study provides an in-depth analysis of a severe downburst event in Sânnicolau Mare, Romania, utilizing an analytical model and optimization algorithm. The goal is to explore a multitude of generating solutions and to identify potential alternatives to the optimal solution. Advanced data analysis techniques help to discern three main distinct storm scenarios. For this particular event, the best overall solution from the optimization algorithm shows promise in reconstructing the downburst.
Luca G. Severino, Chahan M. Kropf, Hilla Afargan-Gerstman, Christopher Fairless, Andries Jan de Vries, Daniela I. V. Domeisen, and David N. Bresch
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1555–1578, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1555-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1555-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We combine climate projections from 30 climate models with a climate risk model to project winter windstorm damages in Europe under climate change. We study the uncertainty and sensitivity factors related to the modelling of hazard, exposure and vulnerability. We emphasize high uncertainties in the damage projections, with climate models primarily driving the uncertainty. We find climate change reshapes future European windstorm risk by altering damage locations and intensity.
Daniel Krieger, Sebastian Brune, Johanna Baehr, and Ralf Weisse
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1539–1554, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1539-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1539-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Previous studies found that climate models can predict storm activity in the German Bight well for averages of 5–10 years but struggle in predicting the next winter season. Here, we improve winter storm activity predictions by linking them to physical phenomena that occur before the winter. We guess the winter storm activity from these phenomena and discard model solutions that stray too far from the guess. The remaining solutions then show much higher prediction skill for storm activity.
João P. A. Martins, Sara Caetano, Carlos Pereira, Emanuel Dutra, and Rita M. Cardoso
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1501–1520, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1501-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1501-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Over Europe, 2022 was truly exceptional in terms of extreme heat conditions, both in terms of temperature anomalies and their temporal and spatial extent. The satellite all-sky land surface temperature (LST) is used to provide a climatological context to extreme heat events. Where drought conditions prevail, LST anomalies are higher than 2 m air temperature anomalies. ERA5-Land does not represent this effect correctly due to a misrepresentation of vegetation anomalies.
Rudolf Brázdil, Kateřina Chromá, and Pavel Zahradníček
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1437–1457, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1437-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1437-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The official mortality data in the Czech Republic in 1919–2022 are used to show long-term fluctuations in the number of fatalities caused by excessive natural cold and heat, lightning, natural disasters, and falls on ice/snow, as well as the sex and age of the deceased, based on certain meteorological, historical, and socioeconomic factors that strongly influence changes in the number and structure of such fatalities. Knowledge obtained is usable in risk management for the preservation of lives.
Ben Maybee, Cathryn E. Birch, Steven J. Böing, Thomas Willis, Linda Speight, Aurore N. Porson, Charlie Pilling, Kay L. Shelton, and Mark A. Trigg
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1415–1436, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1415-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1415-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This paper presents the development and verification of FOREWARNS, a novel method for regional-scale forecasting of surface water flooding. We detail outcomes from a workshop held with UK forecast users, who indicated they valued the forecasts and would use them to complement national guidance. We use results of objective forecast tests against flood observations over northern England to show that this confidence is justified and that FOREWARNS meets the needs of UK flood responders.
Ashbin Jaison, Asgeir Sorteberg, Clio Michel, and Øyvind Breivik
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1341–1355, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1341-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1341-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The present study uses daily insurance losses and wind speeds to fit storm damage functions at the municipality level of Norway. The results show that the damage functions accurately estimate losses associated with extreme damaging events and can reconstruct their spatial patterns. However, there is no single damage function that performs better than another. A newly devised damage–no-damage classifier shows some skill in predicting extreme damaging events.
Madlen Peter, Henning W. Rust, and Uwe Ulbrich
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1261–1285, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1261-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1261-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The paper introduces a statistical modeling approach describing daily extreme precipitation in Germany more accurately by including changes within the year and between the years simultaneously. The changing seasonality over years is regionally divergent and mainly weak. However, some regions stand out with a more pronounced linear rise of summer intensities, indicating a possible climate change signal. Improved modeling of extreme precipitation is beneficial for risk assessment and adaptation.
Faye Hulton and David M. Schultz
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1079–1098, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1079-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1079-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Large hail devastates crops and property and can injure and kill people and livestock. Hail reports are collected by individual countries, so understanding where and when large hail occurs across Europe is an incomplete undertaking. We use the European Severe Weather Database to evaluate the quality of reports by year and by country since 2000. Despite its short record, the dataset appears to represent aspects of European large-hail climatology reliably.
Patrick Olschewski, Mame Diarra Bousso Dieng, Hassane Moutahir, Brian Böker, Edwin Haas, Harald Kunstmann, and Patrick Laux
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1099–1134, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1099-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1099-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We applied a multivariate and dependency-preserving bias correction method to climate model output for the Greater Mediterranean Region and investigated potential changes in false-spring events (FSEs) and heat–drought compound events (HDCEs). Results project an increase in the frequency of FSEs in middle and late spring as well as increases in frequency, intensity, and duration for HDCEs. This will potentially aggravate the risk of crop loss and failure and negatively impact food security.
Alan Demortier, Marc Mandement, Vivien Pourret, and Olivier Caumont
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 907–927, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-907-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-907-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Improvements in numerical weather prediction models make it possible to warn of hazardous weather situations. The incorporation of new observations from personal weather stations into the French limited-area model is evaluated. It leads to a significant improvement in the modelling of the surface pressure field up to 9 h ahead. Their incorporation improves the location and intensity of the heavy precipitation event that occurred in the South of France in September 2021.
Timo Schmid, Raphael Portmann, Leonie Villiger, Katharina Schröer, and David N. Bresch
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 847–872, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-847-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-847-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Hailstorms cause severe damage to buildings and cars, which motivates a detailed risk assessment. Here, we present a new open-source hail damage model based on radar data in Switzerland. The model successfully estimates the correct order of magnitude of car and building damages for most large hail events over 20 years. However, large uncertainty remains in the geographical distribution of modelled damages, which can be improved for individual events by using crowdsourced hail reports.
Colin Raymond, Anamika Shreevastava, Emily Slinskey, and Duane Waliser
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 791–801, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-791-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-791-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
How can we systematically understand what causes high levels of atmospheric humidity and thus heat stress? Here we argue that atmospheric rivers can be a useful tool, based on our finding that in several US regions, atmospheric rivers and humid heat occur close together in space and time. Most typically, an atmospheric river transports moisture which heightens heat stress, with precipitation following a day later. These effects tend to be larger for stronger and more extensive systems.
Joseph Smith, Cathryn Birch, John Marsham, Simon Peatman, Massimo Bollasina, and George Pankiewicz
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 567–582, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-567-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-567-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Nowcasting uses observations to make predictions of the atmosphere on short timescales and is particularly applicable to the Maritime Continent, where storms rapidly develop and cause natural disasters. This paper evaluates probabilistic and deterministic satellite nowcasting algorithms over the Maritime Continent. We show that the probabilistic approach is most skilful at small scales (~ 60 km), whereas the deterministic approach is most skilful at larger scales (~ 200 km).
Nicola Loglisci, Giorgio Boni, Arianna Cauteruccio, Francesco Faccini, Massimo Milelli, Guido Paliaga, and Antonio Parodi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-24, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-24, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
This research analyzes the meteo-hydrological features of August 27th and 28th 2023 event occurred in Genoa city. Rainfall observations were taken using either official or rain gauge networks based on citizen science. The combined analysis highlights a spatial variability of the precipitations, which cannot be captured by the current spatial density of the authoritative stations. Results show that at minimal distances the variations in cumulated rainfall over sub-hourly duration are significant.
Julia Miller, Andrea Böhnisch, Ralf Ludwig, and Manuela I. Brunner
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 411–428, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-411-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-411-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We assess the impacts of climate change on fire danger for 1980–2099 in different landscapes of central Europe, using the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index (FWI) as a fire danger indicator. We find that today's 100-year FWI event will occur every 30 years by 2050 and every 10 years by 2099. High fire danger (FWI > 21.3) becomes the mean condition by 2099 under an RCP8.5 scenario. This study highlights the potential for severe fire events in central Europe from a meteorological perspective.
Dieter Roel Poelman, Hannes Kohlmann, and Wolfgang Schulz
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-18, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-18, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
EUCLID's lightning data unveils distinctive ground strike point (GSP) patterns in Europe. Over seas, GSPs per flash surpass inland, reaching a minimum in the Alps. Mountainous areas like the Alps and Pyrenees have the closest GSP separation, highlighting terrain elevation's impact. Daily peak current correlates with average GSPs per flash. These findings could significantly influence lightning protection measures, urging a focus on GSP density rather than flash density for risk assessment.
Joy Ommer, Jess Neumann, Milan Kalas, Sophie Blackburn, and Hannah L. Cloke
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-296, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-296, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
What’s the worst that could happen? Recent floods are often claimed that they were beyond our imagination. Imagination is the picturing of a situation in our mind and the emotions that we connect with this situation. But why is this important for disasters? This survey found that when we cannot imagine a devastating flood, we are not preparing in advance. Severe weather forecast and warning need to advance to trigger our imagination of what might be about to happen and start preparing.
Clemens Schwingshackl, Anne Sophie Daloz, Carley Iles, Kristin Aunan, and Jana Sillmann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 331–354, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-331-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-331-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Ambient heat in European cities will substantially increase under global warming, as projected by three heat metrics calculated from high-resolution climate model simulations. While the heat metrics consistently project high levels of ambient heat for several cities, in other cities the projected heat levels vary considerably across the three heat metrics. Using complementary heat metrics for projections of ambient heat is thus important for assessments of future risks from heat stress.
Dragan Petrovic, Benjamin Fersch, and Harald Kunstmann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 265–289, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-265-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-265-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The influence of model resolution and settings on the reproduction of heat waves in Germany between 1980–2009 is analyzed. Outputs from a high-resolution model with settings tailored to the target region are compared to those from coarser-resolution models with more general settings. Neither the increased resolution nor the tailored model settings are found to add significant value to the heat wave simulation. The models exhibit a large spread, indicating that the choice of model can be crucial.
Josep Bonsoms, Juan I. López-Moreno, Esteban Alonso-González, César Deschamps-Berger, and Marc Oliva
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 245–264, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-245-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-245-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Climate warming is changing mountain snowpack patterns, leading in some cases to rain-on-snow (ROS) events. Here we analyzed near-present ROS and its sensitivity to climate warming across the Pyrenees. ROS increases during the coldest months of the year but decreases in the warmest months and areas under severe warming due to snow cover depletion. Faster snow ablation is anticipated in the coldest and northern slopes of the range. Relevant implications in mountain ecosystem are anticipated.
François Bouttier and Hugo Marchal
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-3111, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-3111, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Weather prediction uncertainties can be described as sets of possible scenarios – a technique called 'ensemble prediction'. Our machine learning technique translates them into more easily interpretable scenarios for various users, balancing the detection of high precipitation with false alarms. Key parameters are precipitation intensity, space and time scales of interest. We show that the approach can be used to facilitate warnings of extreme precipitations.
Baruch Ziv, Uri Dayan, Lidiya Shendrik, and Elyakom Vadislavsky
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-215, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-215, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
'Train effect' is related to convective cells that pass over the same place. Trains produce heavy rainfall, sometimes floods, and reported in N. America during spring and summer. In Israel, 17 trains were identified by radar images, associated with Cyprus Lows, sharing the following features: Found at the cold sector south of the low center, at the left flank of a maximum wind belt; they cross the Israeli coast, with a mean length of 45 km, last 1–3 hours and yield 35 mm rainfall, up to 60 mm.
Ellina Agayar, Franziska Aemisegger, Moshe Armon, Alexander Scherrmann, and Heini Wernli
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2594, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2594, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This study presents the results of a climatological investigation of extreme precipitation events (EPEs) in Ukraine for the period 1979–2019. During all seasons EPEs are associated with pronounced upper-level PV anomalies. In addition, we find distinct seasonal and regional differences in moisture sources. Several extreme precipitation cases demonstrate the importance of these processes, complemented by a detailed synoptical analysis.
Matthew D. K. Priestley, David B. Stephenson, Adam A. Scaife, Daniel Bannister, Christopher J. T. Allen, and David Wilkie
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3845–3861, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3845-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3845-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This research presents a model for estimating extreme gusts associated with European windstorms. Using observed storm footprints we are able to calculate the return level of events at the 200-year return period. The largest gusts are found across NW Europe, and these are larger when the North Atlantic Oscillation is positive. Using theoretical future climate states we find that return levels are likely to increase across NW Europe to levels that are unprecedented compared to historical storms.
Tadeusz Chmielewski and Piotr A. Bońkowski
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3839–3844, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3839-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3839-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The paper deals with wind speeds of extreme wind events in Poland and the descriptions of their effects. Two recent estimations developed by the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management in Warsaw and by Halina Lorenc are presented and briefly described. The 37 annual maximum gusts of wind speeds measured between 1971 and 2007 are analysed. Based on the measured and estimated wind speeds, the authors suggest new estimations for extreme winds that may occur in Poland.
Erik Holmgren and Erik Kjellström
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2879, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2879, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Associating extreme weather events to changes in the climate remains difficult. We have explored how these relationships can be investigated using a more common method, and relying solely on long-running observational records of temperature and precipitation.
Our results show that while both methods lead to similar conclusions for two recent weather events in Sweden, the commonly used method risks underestimating the strength of the connection between the event and changes to the climate.
Jingyu Wang, Jiwen Fan, and Zhe Feng
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3823–3838, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3823-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3823-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Hail and tornadoes are devastating hazards responsible for significant property damage and economic losses in the United States. Quantifying the connection between hazard events and mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) is of great significance for improving predictability, as well as for better understanding the influence of the climate-scale perturbations. A 14-year statistical dataset of MCS-related hazard production is presented.
Raphael Portmann, Timo Schmid, Leonie Villiger, David N. Bresch, and Pierluigi Calanca
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2598, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2598, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The study presents a model to determine the occurrence of hail damage to field crops (wheat, maize, barley, rapeseed) and grapevines after a hailstorm. Using radar, agricultural land use data, and damage reports, it finds that the model performs best in the main production areas and at 8 km resolution for field crops and 1 km for grapevines. It also highlights the trade-offs in selecting suitable hail size thresholds for modeling, which eventually depends on user needs and cost considerations.
Ruijiao Jiang, Guoping Zhang, Shudong Wang, Bing Xue, Zhengshuai Xie, Tingzhao Yu, Kuoyin Wang, Jin Ding, and Xiaoxiang Zhu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3747–3759, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3747-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3747-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Lightning activity in China is analyzed. Low latitudes, undulating terrain, seaside, and humid surfaces are beneficial for lightning occurrence. Summer of the year or afternoon of the day is the high period. Large cloud-to-ground lightning frequency always corresponds to a small ratio and weak intensity of positive cloud-to-ground lightning on either a temporal or spatial scale. Interestingly, the discharge intensity difference between the two types of lightning shrinks on the Tibetan Plateau.
George Pacey, Stephan Pfahl, Lisa Schielicke, and Kathrin Wapler
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3703–3721, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3703-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3703-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Cold fronts are often associated with areas of intense precipitation (cells) and sometimes with hazards such as flooding, hail and lightning. We find that cold-frontal cell days are associated with higher cell frequency and cells are typically more intense. We also show both spatially and temporally where cells are most frequent depending on their cell-front distance. These results are an important step towards a deeper understanding of cold-frontal storm climatology and improved forecasting.
Francesco Battaglioli, Pieter Groenemeijer, Ivan Tsonevsky, and Tomàš Púčik
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3651–3669, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3651-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3651-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Probabilistic models for lightning and large hail were developed across Europe using lightning observations and hail reports. These models accurately predict the occurrence of lightning and large hail several days in advance. In addition, the hail model was shown to perform significantly better than the state-of-the-art forecasting methods. These results suggest that the models developed in this study may help improve forecasting of convective hazards and eventually limit the associated risks.
Rosa Claudia Torcasio, Alessandra Mascitelli, Eugenio Realini, Stefano Barindelli, Giulio Tagliaferro, Silvia Puca, Stefano Dietrich, and Stefano Federico
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3319–3336, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3319-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3319-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This work shows how local observations can improve precipitation forecasting for severe weather events. The improvement lasts for at least 6 h of forecast.
Florian Ruff and Stephan Pfahl
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2057, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2057, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
High-impact river floods are often caused by very extreme precipitation. Flood protection rely on reliable estimates of the return values. Observational time series are too short for a precise calculation. Here, 100-year return values of daily precipitation are estimated on a global grid based on a large set of model-generated precipitation events from ensemble weather prediction. The statistical uncertainties of the return values can be substantially reduced compared to observational estimates.
Gerd Bürger and Maik Heistermann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3065–3077, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3065-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3065-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Our subject is a new catalogue of radar-based heavy rainfall events (CatRaRE) over Germany and how it relates to the concurrent atmospheric circulation. We classify reanalyzed daily atmospheric fields of convective indices according to CatRaRE, using conventional statistical and more recent machine learning algorithms, and apply them to present and future atmospheres. Increasing trends are projected for CatRaRE-type probabilities, from reanalyzed as well as from simulated atmospheric fields.
Marleen R. Lam, Alessia Matanó, Anne F. Van Loon, Rhoda A. Odongo, Aklilu D. Teklesadik, Charles N. Wamucii, Marc J. C. van den Homberg, Shamton Waruru, and Adriaan J. Teuling
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2915–2936, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2915-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2915-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
There is still no full understanding of the relation between drought impacts and drought indices in the Horn of Africa where water scarcity and arid regions are also present. This study assesses their relation in Kenya. A random forest model reveals that each region, aggregated by aridity, has its own set of predictors for every impact category. Water scarcity was not found to be related to aridity. Understanding these relations contributes to the development of drought early warning systems.
Marie Hundhausen, Hendrik Feldmann, Natalie Laube, and Joaquim G. Pinto
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2873–2893, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2873-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2873-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Using a convection-permitting regional climate ensemble, the magnitude of heat waves (HWs) over Germany is projected to increase by 26 % (100 %) in a 2 °C (3 °C) warmer world. The increase is strongest in late summer, relatively homogeneous in space, and accompanied by increasing variance in HW length. Tailored parameters to climate adaptation to heat revealed dependency on major landscapes, and a nonlinear, exponential increase for parameters characterizing strong heat stress is expected.
Pauline Rivoire, Olivia Martius, Philippe Naveau, and Alexandre Tuel
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2857–2871, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2857-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2857-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Heavy precipitation can lead to floods and landslides, resulting in widespread damage and significant casualties. Some of its impacts can be mitigated if reliable forecasts and warnings are available. In this article, we assess the capacity of the precipitation forecast provided by ECMWF to predict heavy precipitation events on a subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) timescale over Europe. We find that the forecast skill of such events is generally higher in winter than in summer.
Stephen Cusack
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2841–2856, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2841-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2841-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The link from European windstorm research findings to insurance applications is strengthened by a new storm loss history spanning 1950 to 2022. It is based on ERA5 winds, together with long-term trends from observed gusts for improved validation. Correlations between losses and climate indices are around 0.4 for interannual variations, rising to 0.7 for decadal variations. A significant divergence between standard climate indices and storm losses over the past 20 years needs further research.
Felix Erdmann, Olivier Caumont, and Eric Defer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2821–2840, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2821-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2821-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This work develops a novel lightning data assimilation (LDA) technique to make use of Meteosat Third Generation (MTG) Lightning Imager (LI) data in a regional, convection-permitting numerical weather prediction model. The approach combines statistical Bayesian and 3-dimensional variational methods. Our LDA can promote missing convection and suppress spurious convection in the initial state of the model, and it has similar skill to the operational radar data assimilation for rainfall forecasts.
Haojie Huang, Linfei Bai, Hao Shen, Xiaoqi Ding, Rui Wang, and Haibin Lü
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2807–2819, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2807-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2807-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The super cyclonic storm Amphan occurred in the central Bay of Bengal in May 2020, and a phytoplankton bloom occurred. Its dynamic mechanism was first researched. An inertial oscillation with a 2 d period appeared and lasted for approximately 2 weeks. With the weakened thermocline and thinner barrier layer thickness, nitrate and Chl a were uplifted to the upper ocean by upwelling. With the high photosynthetically available radiation, a phytoplankton bloom occurred.
Klaus Haslinger, Wolfgang Schöner, Jakob Abermann, Gregor Laaha, Konrad Andre, Marc Olefs, and Roland Koch
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2749–2768, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2749-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2749-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Future changes of surface water availability in Austria are investigated. Alterations of the climatic water balance and its components are analysed along different levels of elevation. Results indicate in general wetter conditions with particular shifts in timing of the snow melt season. On the contrary, an increasing risk for summer droughts is apparent due to increasing year-to-year variability and decreasing snow melt under future climate conditions.
Katrin M. Nissen, Martina Wilde, Thomas M. Kreuzer, Annika Wohlers, Bodo Damm, and Uwe Ulbrich
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2737–2748, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2737-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2737-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The effect of climate change on rockfall probability in the German low mountain regions is investigated in observations and in 23 different climate scenario simulations. Under a pessimistic greenhouse gas scenario, the simulations suggest a decrease in rockfall probability. This reduction is mainly caused by a decrease in the number of freeze–thaw cycles due to higher atmospheric temperatures.
Martin Morlot, Simone Russo, Luc Feyen, and Giuseppe Formetta
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2593–2606, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2593-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2593-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We analyzed recent trends in heat and cold wave (HW and CW) risk in a European alpine region, defined by a time and spatially explicit framework to quantify hazard, vulnerability, exposure, and risk. We find a statistically significant increase in HW hazard and exposure. A decrease in vulnerability is observed except in the larger cities. HW risk increased in 40 % of the region, especially in highly populated areas. Stagnant CW hazard and declining vulnerability result in reduced CW risk.
Cited articles
Alfieri, L., Burek, P., Feyen, L., and Forzieri, G.: Global warming increases the frequency of river floods in Europe, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2247–2260, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-2247-2015, 2015a. a, b
Alfieri, L., Feyen, L., Dottori, F., and Bianchi, A.: Ensemble flood risk
assessment in Europe under high end climate scenarios, Global Environ. Change, 35, 199–212, 2015b. a
Alfieri, L., Dottori, F., Betts, R., Salamon, P., and Feyen, L.: Multi-model
projections of river flood risk in Europe under global warming, Climate, 6, 6 https://doi.org/10.3390/cli6010006, 2018. a
André, C., Monfort, D., Bouzit, M., and Vinchon, C.: Contribution of insurance data to cost assessment of coastal flood damage to residential buildings: insights gained from Johanna (2008) and Xynthia (2010) storm events, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 13, 2003–2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-2003-2013, 2013. a
Barbería, L., Amaro, J., Aran, M., and Llasat, M. C.: The role of
different factors related to social impact of heavy rain events: considerations about the intensity thresholds in densely populated areas,
Natu. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 1843–1852, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-1843-2014, 2014. a
Barnolas, M. and Llasat, M.: Metodologıa para el estudio de inundaciones
históricas en Espana e implementación de un SIG en las cuencas del
Ter, Segre y Llobregat, CEH-CEDEX, Monografıas M-90, Ministerio de
Fomento, Madrid, 2007. a
Barredo, J. I.: Normalised flood losses in Europe: 1970–2006, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 9, 97–104, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-9-97-2009, 2009. a
Barredo, J. I., Saurí, D., and Llasat, M. C.: Assessing trends in insured losses from floods in Spain 1971–2008, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 12, 1723–1729, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-12-1723-2012, 2012. a, b, c, d
Bernet, D. B., Prasuhn, V., and Weingartner, R.: Surface water floods in Switzerland: what insurance claim records tell us about the damage in space and time, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 1659–1682, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-1659-2017, 2017. a
Betts, R., Alfieri, L., Bradshaw, C., Caesar, J., Feyen, L., Friedlingstein,
P., Gohar, L., Koutroulis, A., Lewis, K., Morfopoulos, C., Papadimitriou, L., Richardson, K. J., Tsanis, I., and Wyser, K.: Changes in climate extremes, fresh water availability and vulnerability to food insecurity projected at 1.5 ∘C and 2 ∘C global warming with a higher-resolution global climate model, Earth's Future, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017EF000714, in press, 2018. a
Bolker, B. M., Brooks, M. E., Clark, C. J., Geange, S. W., Poulsen, J. R.,
Stevens, M. H. H., and White, J.-S. S.: Generalized linear mixed models: a
practical guide for ecology and evolution, Trends. Ecol. Evol., 24, 127–135, 2009. a
Bouwer, L. M.: Have disaster losses increased due to anthropogenic climate
change?, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 92, 39–46, 2011. a
Colmet-Daage, A., Sanchez-Gomez, E., Ricci, S., Llovel, C., Borrell Estupina, V., Quintana-Seguí, P., Llasat, M. C., and Servat, E.: Evaluation of uncertainties in mean and extreme precipitation under climate change for northwestern Mediterranean watersheds from high-resolution Med and Euro-CORDEX ensembles, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 673–687, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-673-2018, 2018. a, b, c
Cortès, M., Llasat, M. C., Gilabert, J., Llasat-Botija, M., Turco, M.,
Marcos, R., Martín Vide, J. P., and Falcón, L.: Towards a better understanding of the evolution of the flood risk in Mediterranean urban areas: the case of Barcelona, Nat. Hazards, 93, 39–60, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-017-3014-0, 2017. a
Cortès, M., Turco, M., Llasat, M., and d. Llasat, M. C.: Estimación de los daños por inundaciones en el mediterráneo español a partir de la lluvia, in: El Clima: Aire, Agua, tierra y fuego, Asociación
Española de Climatología, Murcia, España, 2018. a
Cramer, W., Guiot, J., Fader, M., Garrabou, J., Gattuso, J.-P., Iglesias, A.,
Lange, M. A., Lionello, P., Llasat, M. C., Paz, S., Peñuelas, J., Snoussi, M., Toreti, A., Tsimplis, M. N., and Xoplaki, E.: Climate change and interconnected risks to sustainable development in the Mediterranean, Nat. Clim. Change, 8, 972–980, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018-0299-2, 2018. a, b, c, d, e, f, g
Drobinski, P., Da Silva, N., Panthou, G., Bastin, S., Muller, C., Ahrens, B., Borga, M., Conte, D., Fosser, G., Giorgi, F., Güttler, I., Kotroni, V., Li, L., Morin, E., Önol, B., Quintana-Segui, P., Romera, R., and Torma, C. Z.: Scaling precipitation extremes with temperature in the Mediterranean: past climate assessment and projection in anthropogenic scenarios, Clim. Dynam., 51, 1237–1257, 2018. a, b, c
Elmer, F., Thieken, A. H., Pech, I., and Kreibich, H.: Influence of flood
frequency on residential building losses, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 10, 2145—2159, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-10-2145-2010, 2010. a
Fourrie, N., Haddouch, H., Brousseau, P., Wattrelot, E., and Fisher, C.:
Forecast of heavy precipitation events, in: The Mediterranean Region under
Climate Change. A scientific update, chap. 3, IRD editions, Marseille, 577–585, 2016. a
Gaume, E., Borga, M., Llassat, M. C., Maouche, S., Lang, M., and Diakakis, M.: Mediterranean extreme floods and flash floods, in: The Mediterranean Region under Climate Change. A scientific update, chap. 1, IRD editions, Marseille, 133–144, 016. a
Giorgi, F. and Lionello, P.: Climate change projections for the Mediterranean
region, Global Planet. Change, 63, 90–104, 2008. a
Gudmundsson, L., Bremnes, J. B., Haugen, J. E., and Engen-Skaugen, T.:
Technical Note: Downscaling RCM precipitation to the station scale using
statistical transformations - a comparison of methods, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 3383–3390, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-16-3383-2012, 2012. a
Harrell Jr., F. E.: Regression modeling strategies: with applications to linear models, logistic and ordinal regression, and survival analysis, Springer, Switzerland, 2015. a
IDESCAT: Institut d'Estadística de Catalunya, available at:
https://www.idescat.cat (last access: 26 April 2019), 2018. a
Jacob, D., Petersen, J., Eggert, B., Alias, A., Bøssing, O., Bouwer, L. M., Braun, A., Colette, A., Georgopoulou, E., Gobiet, A., Menut, L., Nikulin, G., Haensler, A., Kriegsmann, A., Martin, E., Meijgaard, E. V., Moseley, C., and Pfeifer, S.: EURO-CORDEX: new high-resolution climate change projections for European impact research, Reg. Environ. Change, 14, 563–578, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-013-0499-2, 2014. a, b, c, d, e
Jerez, S., Tobin, I., Vautard, R., Montávez, J. P., López-Romero, J. M., Thais, F., Bartok, B., Christensen, O. B., Colette, A., Déqué, M., Nikulin, G., Kotlarski, S., van Meijgaard, E., Teichmann, C., and Wild, M.: The impact of climate change on photovoltaic power generation in Europe, Nat. Commun., 6, 10014, https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms10014, 2015. a
Jerez, S., López-Romero, J., Turco, M., Jiménez-Guerrero, P., Vautard, R., and Montávez, J.: Impact of evolving greenhouse gas forcing on the warming signal in regional climate model experiments, Nat. Commun.,
9, 1304, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-018-03527-y, 2018. a
Kim, Y.-O., Seo, S. B., and Jang, O.-J.: Flood risk assessment using regional
regression analysis, Nat. Hazards, 63, 1203–1217, 2012. a
Kjellström, E., Nikulin, G., Strandberg, G., Christensen, O. B., Jacob, D., Keuler, K., Lenderink, G., van Meijgaard, E., Schär, C., Somot, S., Sørland, S. L., Teichmann, C., and Vautard, R.: European climate change at global mean temperature increases of 1.5 and 2 ∘C above pre-industrial conditions as simulated by the EURO-CORDEX regional climate models, Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 459–478, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-459-2018, 2018. a, b
Kundzewicz, Z. W., Krysanova, V., Dankers, R., Hirabayashi, Y., Kanae, S., Hattermann, F. F., Huang, S., Milly, P. C. D., Stoffel, M. H., Driessen, P. P. J., Matczak, P., Quevauviller, P., and Schellnhuber, H. J.: Differences in flood hazard projections in Europe–their causes and consequences for decision making, Hydrolog. Sci. J., 62, 1–14, 2017. a
Leal, M., Boavida-Portugal, I., Fragoso, M., and Ramos, C.: How much does an
extreme rainfall event cost? Material damages and relationships between
insurance, rainfall, land cover and urban flooding, Hydrolog. Sci. J., 64, 673–689, 2019. a
Le Bihan, G., Payrastre, O., Gaume, E., Moncoulon, D., and Pons, F.: The challenge of forecasting impacts of flash floods: test of a simplified hydraulic approach and validation based on insurance claim data, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 5911–5928, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-5911-2017, 2017. a
Llasat, M. C., Llasat-Botija, M., and López, L.: A press database on natural risks and its application in the study of floods in Northeastern Spain, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 9, 2049–2061, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-9-2049-2009, 2009. a
Llasat, M. C., Llasat-Botija, M., Petrucci, O., Pasqua, A. A., Rosselló,
J., Vinet, F., and Boissier, L.: Towards a database on societal impact of
Mediterranean floods within the framework of the HYMEX project, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 13, 1337–1350, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-1337-2013, 2013. a, b
Llasat, M. C., Marcos, R., Llasat-Botija, M., Gilabert, J., Turco, M., and
Quintana-Seguí, P.: Flash flood evolution in north-western Mediterranean, Atmos. Res., 149, 230–243, 2014. a
Llasat, M. C., Marcos, R., Turco, M., Gilabert, J., and Llasat-Botija, M.:
Trends in flash flood events versus convective precipitation in the
Mediterranean region: The case of Catalonia, J. Hydrol., 541, 24–37, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2016.05.040, 2016. a, b, c, d
López-Martínez, F., Gil-Guirado, S., and Pérez-Morales, A.: Who
can you trust? Implications of institutional vulnerability in flood exposure
along the Spanish Mediterranean coast, Environ. Sci. Policy, 76, 29–39, 2017. a
Martin-Vide, J.: Spatial distribution of a daily precipitation concentration
index in peninsular Spain, Int. J. Climatol., 24, 959–971, 2004. a
Mason, S. J. and Graham, N. E.: Areas beneath the relative operating
characteristics (ROC) and relative operating levels (ROL) curves: Statistical
significance and interpretation, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 128, 2145–2166, 2002. a
O'Neill, B. C., Kriegler, E., Riahi, K., Ebi, K. L., Hallegatte, S., Carter,
T. R., Mathur, R., and van Vuuren, D. P.: A new scenario framework for climate change research: the concept of shared socioeconomic pathways,
Climatic Change, 122, 387–400, 2014. a
O'Neill, B. C., Kriegler, E., Ebi, K. L., Kemp-Benedict, E., Riahi, K.,
Rothman, D. S., van Ruijven, B. J., van Vuuren, D. P., Birkmann, J., Kok, K.,
Levy, M., and Soleckim, W.: The roads ahead: Narratives for shared socioeconomic pathways describing world futures in the 21st century, Global Environ. Change, 42, 169–180, 2017. a, b, c
Papagiannaki, K., Lagouvardos, K., Kotroni, V., and Bezes, A.: Flash flood occurrence and relation to the rainfall hazard in a highly urbanized area, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 1859–1871, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-1859-2015, 2015. a
Petrucci, O. and Llasat, M. C.: Impact of disasters in mediterranean regions: An overview in the framework of the HYMEX project, in: Landslide Science and
Practice: Social and Economic Impact and Policies, vol. 7, Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg, 137–143, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-31313-4_18, 2013. a, b
Przyluski, V. and Hallegatte, S.: Indirect costs of natural hazards, CONHAZ
report WP02, 383–398, available at: https://climate-adapt.eea.europa.eu/metadata/guidances/indirect-costs-of-natural-hazards (last access: 16 December 2019), 2011. a
Quintana-Seguí, P., Peral, C., Turco, M., d. Llasat, M. C., and Martin,
E.: Meteorological analysis systems in North-East Spain: validation of SAFRAN
and SPAN, J. Environ. Inform., 27, 116–130, https://doi.org/10.3808/jei.201600335, 2016. a
Quintana-Seguí, P., Turco, M., Herrera, S., and Miguez-Macho, G.: Validation of a new SAFRAN-based gridded precipitation product for Spain and comparisons to Spain02 and ERA-Interim, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2187–2201, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-2187-2017, 2017. a
Quiroga, S., Garrote, L., Iglesias, A., Fernández-Haddad, Z., Schlickenrieder, J., de Lama, B., Mosso, C., and Sánchez-Arcilla, A.: The economic value of drought information for water management under climate change: a case study in the Ebro basin, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 11, 643–657, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-11-643-2011, 2011. a
Rajczak, J. and Schär, C.: Projections of Future Precipitation Extremes
Over Europe: A Multimodel Assessment of Climate Simulations, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 122, 10773–10800, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017JD027176, 2017. a, b, c
Ramis, C., Llasat, M. C., Genovés, A., and Jansà, A.: The October-1987 floods in Catalonia: Synoptic and mesoscale mechanisms, Meteorol. Appl., 1, 337–350, 1994. a
Ramis, C., Homar, V., Amengual, A., Romero, R., and Alonso, S.: Daily precipitation records over mainland Spain and the Balearic Islands, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 13, 2483–2491, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-2483-2013, 2013. a
Raschky, P. A.: Institutions and the losses from natural disasters, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 8, 627–634, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-8-627-2008, 2008. a
Riahi, K., Van Vuuren, D. P., Kriegler, E., Edmonds, J., O'neill, B. C.,
Fujimori, S., Bauer, N., Calvin, K., Dellink, R., Fricko, O., Lutz, W., Popp, A., Cuaresma, J. C., Samir, K. C., Leimbach, M., Jiang, L., Kram, T., Rao, S., Emmerling, J., Ebi, K., Hasegawa, T., Havlik, P., Humpenöder, F., Aleluia Da Silva, L., Smith, S., Stehfest, E., Bosetti, V., Eom, J., Gernaat, D., Masui, T., Rogelj, J., Strefler, J., Drouet, L., Krey, V., Luderer, G., Harmsen, M., Takahashi, K., Baumstark, L., Doelman, J., Kainuma, M., Klimont, Z., Marangoni, G., Lotze-Campen, H., Obersteiner, M., Tabeau, A., and Tavoni, M.: The shared socioeconomic pathways and their energy, land use, and greenhouse gas emissions implications: an overview, Global Environ. Change, 42, 153–168, 2017. a
Rodrigo, F. and Trigo, R. M.: Trends in daily rainfall in the Iberian Peninsula from 1951 to 2002, Int. J. Climatol., 27, 513–529, 2007. a
Rodriguez-Puebla, C., Encinas, A., Nieto, S., and Garmendia, J.: Spatial and
temporal patterns of annual precipitation variability over the Iberian
Peninsula, Int. J. Climatol., 18, 299–316, 1998. a
Rojas, R., Feyen, L., Bianchi, A., and Dosio, A.: Assessment of future flood
hazard in Europe using a large ensemble of bias-corrected regional climate
simulations, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 117, D17109, https://doi.org/10.1029/2012JD017461, 2012. a
Romero, R., Guijarro, J., Ramis, C., and Alonso, S.: A 30-year (1964–1993)
daily rainfall data base for the Spanish Mediterranean regions: First
exploratory study, Int. J. Climatol., 18, 541–560, 1998. a
Roudier, P., Andersson, J. C., Donnelly, C., Feyen, L., Greuell, W., and
Ludwig, F.: Projections of future floods and hydrological droughts in Europe
under a +2 ∘C global warming, Climatic Change, 135, 341–355, 2016. a
Saint Martin, C., Fouchier, C., Javelle, P., Douvinet, J., and Vinet, F.:
Assessing the exposure to floods to estimate the risk of flood-related damage
in French Mediterranean basins, in: vol. 7, 3rd European Conference on Flood Risk Management (FLOODrisk 2016), 7–21 October 2016, Lyon, France, 04013, https://doi.org/10.1051/e3sconf/20160704013, 2016. a
Sillmann, J., Kharin, V. V., Zwiers, F. W., Zhang, X., and Bronaugh, D.:
Climate extremes indices in the CMIP5 multimodel ensemble: Part 2. Future
climate projections, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 118, 2473–2493, https://doi.org/10.1002/jgrd.50188, 2013. a, b
Spekkers, M. H., Kok, M., Clemens, F. H., and Ten Veldhuis, J. A.: A
statistical analysis of insurance damage claims related to rainfall extremes, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 913–922, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-913-2013, 2013. a, b, c
Tebaldi, C., Arblaster, J. M., and Knutti, R.: Mapping model agreement on
future climate projections, Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, 1–5,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2011GL049863, 2011. a
Thiébault, S.: The Mediterranean Region under Climate Change. A scientific update: Abridged English/French Version, IRD editions, Marseille, 2018. a
Tramblay, Y. and Somot, S.: Future evolution of extreme precipitation in the
Mediterranean, Climatic Change, 151, 289–302, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-018-2300-5, 2018. a, b, c
Tramblay, Y., Ruelland, D., Somot, S., Bouaicha, R., and Servat, E.:
High-resolution Med-CORDEX regional climate model simulations for hydrological impact studies: A first evaluation of the ALADIN-Climate model
in Morocco, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 3721–3739,
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-3721-2013, 2013. a
Trigo, R. M. and Palutikof, J. P.: Precipitation scenarios over Iberia: a
comparison between direct GCM output and different downscaling techniques, J. Climate, 14, 4422–4446, 2001. a
Turco, M. and Llasat, M. C.: Trends in indices of daily precipitation extremes in Catalonia (NE Spain), 1951–2003, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 11, 3213–3226, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-11-3213-2011, 2011. a
Turco, M., Quintana-Seguí, P., Llasat, M., Herrera, S., and Gutiérrez, J. M.: Testing MOS precipitation downscaling for ENSEMBLES regional climate models over Spain, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 116, D18109,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2011JD016166, 2011.
a
Turco, M., Llasat, M. C., Herrera, S., and Gutiérrez, J. M.: Bias
correction and downscaling of future RCM precipitation projections using a
MOS-Analog technique, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 122, 2631–2648, 2017. a
van Huijstee, J., van Bemmel, B., Bouwman, A., and van Rijn, F.: Towards an
Urban Preview: Modelling future urban growth with 2UP, Tech. rep., PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, the Hague, 2018. a
Vautard, R., Gobiet, A., Sobolowski, S., and Kjellstr”om, E.: The European climate under a 2 ∘C global warming, Environ. Res. Lett., 9, 034006, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/9/3/034006, 2014. a, b
Zhou, Q., Panduro, T. E., Thorsen, B. J., and Arnbjerg-Nielsen, K.: Verification of flood damage modelling using insurance data, Water Sci. Technol., 68, 425–432, https://doi.org/10.2166/wst.2013.268, 2013. a, b, c, d
Zhou, Q., Leng, G., and Feng, L.: Predictability of state-level flood damage in the conterminous United States: the role of hazard, exposure and
vulnerability, Scient. Rep., 7, 5354, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-017-05773-4, 2017. a
Zischg, A. P., Mosimann, M., Bernet, D. B., and Röthlisberger, V.: Validation of 2D flood models with insurance claims, J. Hydrol., 557, 350–361, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2017.12.042, 2018. a
Short summary
The main objective of this paper is to estimate changes in the probability of damaging flood events with global warming of 1.5, 2 and 3 °C above pre-industrial levels and taking into account different socioeconomic scenarios in two western Mediterranean regions. The results show a general increase in the probability of a damaging event, with larger increments when higher warming is considered. Moreover, this increase is higher when both climate and population change are included.
The main objective of this paper is to estimate changes in the probability of damaging flood...
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint