Articles | Volume 19, issue 12
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2855-2019
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2855-2019
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
18 Dec 2019
Research article |
| 18 Dec 2019
| 18 Dec 2019
Changes in flood damage with global warming on the eastern coast of Spain
Department of Applied Physics, University of Barcelona, 08028 Barcelona, Spain
Water Research Institute (IdRA), University of Barcelona, 08001 Barcelona, Spain
Marco Turco
Barcelona Supercomputing Center (BSC), 08034 Barcelona, Spain
Now at: Regional Atmospheric Modeling (MAR) Group, Department of Physics, University of Murcia, 30100 Murcia, Spain
Philip Ward
Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM), Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, 1081 HV Amsterdam, the Netherlands
Josep A. Sánchez-Espigares
Department of Statistics and Operations Research, Polytechnic University of Catalonia, 08028 Barcelona, Spain
Lorenzo Alfieri
European Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC), Ispra, Italy
Maria Carmen Llasat
Department of Applied Physics, University of Barcelona, 08028 Barcelona, Spain
Water Research Institute (IdRA), University of Barcelona, 08001 Barcelona, Spain
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- A new generation of global flood protection database J. Boulange et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105823
- Learning from Unsustainable Post-Disaster Temporary Housing Programs in Spain: Lessons from the 2011 Lorca Earthquake and the 2021 La Palma Volcano Eruption P. Bris et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/su18020963
- Multi-Parameter Approach to Determine the Floods Causes in North Luwu, South Sulawesi. H. Hendrayana et al. https://doi.org/10.1088/1755-1315/1378/1/012004
- Impact of climate risk materialization and ecological deterioration on house prices in Mar Menor, Spain M. Lamas Rodríguez et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-023-39022-8
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- Análisis y modelización de los cambios en la inundabilidad tras el incendio forestal de Sierra Bermeja en 2021 (Provincia de Málaga,España) A. Gallegos Reina https://doi.org/10.3989/estgeogr.2024.1254
- Land Use Change, Extreme Precipitation Events, and Flood Damage in South Korea: A Spatial Approach H. Chang et al. https://doi.org/10.1142/S2345737621500019
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- Influence of winter water temperatures on the physiological state of carp (Cyprinus carpio) L. Tsurkan https://doi.org/10.15421/022212
- Mapping Flood Impacts on Mortality at European Territories of the Mediterranean Region within the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) Framework I. Stamos & M. Diakakis https://doi.org/10.3390/w16172470
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- Hypoosmotic challenge induces an acute stress response in European seabass with limited modulation by diets containing insect meal R. Costa et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.aquaculture.2026.744055
- The Lightning Jump Algorithm for Nowcasting Convective Rainfall in Catalonia C. Farnell & T. Rigo https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos11040397
- Western Mediterranean Precipitation Extremes, the Result of Quasi-Resonant Sea–Atmosphere Feedbacks J. Pinault https://doi.org/10.3390/rs15112711
- A global perspective on western Mediterranean precipitation extremes D. Insua-Costa et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-022-00234-w
- A Flood Forecasting Method in the Francolí River Basin (Spain) Using a Distributed Hydrological Model and an Analog-Based Precipitation Forecast D. Carril-Rojas et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/hydrology12080220
- Convective precipitation trends in the Spanish Mediterranean region M. Llasat et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2021.105581
- Flood-related deaths in Northwestern Algeria from 1966 to 2019 I. Hadjij et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12517-021-08309-3
- The September 2019 floods in Spain: An example of the utility of satellite data for the analysis of extreme hydrometeorological events F. Tapiador et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2021.105588
26 citations as recorded by crossref.
- An Earth Observation Task Representation Model Supporting Dynamic Demand for Flood Disaster Monitoring and Management Z. Zhao et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs15082193
- Estimating built-up area carbon emissions through addressing regional development disparities with population and nighttime light data B. Zhao et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2024.123582
- Characterization of damages in buildings after floods in Vega Baja County (Spain) in 2019. The case study of Almoradí municipality R. Moya Barbera et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cscm.2024.e03004
- Collaborative carbon emission peak actions in urban agglomerations: multi-agent reinforcement learning analysis of the urban agglomerations of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and Yangtze River Delta B. Zhao et al. https://doi.org/10.1080/10095020.2025.2483892
- A new generation of global flood protection database J. Boulange et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105823
- Learning from Unsustainable Post-Disaster Temporary Housing Programs in Spain: Lessons from the 2011 Lorca Earthquake and the 2021 La Palma Volcano Eruption P. Bris et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/su18020963
- Multi-Parameter Approach to Determine the Floods Causes in North Luwu, South Sulawesi. H. Hendrayana et al. https://doi.org/10.1088/1755-1315/1378/1/012004
- Impact of climate risk materialization and ecological deterioration on house prices in Mar Menor, Spain M. Lamas Rodríguez et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-023-39022-8
- Approach for Assessing Seismic and Flood Vulnerability for Heritage Schools: The Case of Santo Domingo in Orihuela, Spain A. Guardiola-Víllora et al. https://doi.org/10.1080/15583058.2025.2597486
- Análisis y modelización de los cambios en la inundabilidad tras el incendio forestal de Sierra Bermeja en 2021 (Provincia de Málaga,España) A. Gallegos Reina https://doi.org/10.3989/estgeogr.2024.1254
- Land Use Change, Extreme Precipitation Events, and Flood Damage in South Korea: A Spatial Approach H. Chang et al. https://doi.org/10.1142/S2345737621500019
- Ecosystem services and well-being dimensions related to urban green spaces – A systematic review L. Pinto et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scs.2022.104072
- How are public compensation efforts implemented in multi-hazard events? Insights from the 2020 Gloria storm in Catalonia N. Pantaleoni Reluy et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-3483-2025
- Nationwide evaluation of changes in fluvial and pluvial flood damage and the effectiveness of adaptation measures in Japan under population decline H. Yanagihara et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104605
- Climate change projection using statistical downscaling model over southern coastal Iran S. Esfandeh et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.heliyon.2024.e29416
- Influence of winter water temperatures on the physiological state of carp (Cyprinus carpio) L. Tsurkan https://doi.org/10.15421/022212
- Mapping Flood Impacts on Mortality at European Territories of the Mediterranean Region within the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) Framework I. Stamos & M. Diakakis https://doi.org/10.3390/w16172470
- Floods in the Pyrenees: a global view through a regional database M. Llasat et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3423-2024
- Hypoosmotic challenge induces an acute stress response in European seabass with limited modulation by diets containing insect meal R. Costa et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.aquaculture.2026.744055
- The Lightning Jump Algorithm for Nowcasting Convective Rainfall in Catalonia C. Farnell & T. Rigo https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos11040397
- Western Mediterranean Precipitation Extremes, the Result of Quasi-Resonant Sea–Atmosphere Feedbacks J. Pinault https://doi.org/10.3390/rs15112711
- A global perspective on western Mediterranean precipitation extremes D. Insua-Costa et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-022-00234-w
- A Flood Forecasting Method in the Francolí River Basin (Spain) Using a Distributed Hydrological Model and an Analog-Based Precipitation Forecast D. Carril-Rojas et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/hydrology12080220
- Convective precipitation trends in the Spanish Mediterranean region M. Llasat et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2021.105581
- Flood-related deaths in Northwestern Algeria from 1966 to 2019 I. Hadjij et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12517-021-08309-3
- The September 2019 floods in Spain: An example of the utility of satellite data for the analysis of extreme hydrometeorological events F. Tapiador et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2021.105588
Saved (final revised paper)
Latest update: 05 Jun 2026
Short summary
The main objective of this paper is to estimate changes in the probability of damaging flood events with global warming of 1.5, 2 and 3 °C above pre-industrial levels and taking into account different socioeconomic scenarios in two western Mediterranean regions. The results show a general increase in the probability of a damaging event, with larger increments when higher warming is considered. Moreover, this increase is higher when both climate and population change are included.
The main objective of this paper is to estimate changes in the probability of damaging flood...
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