Articles | Volume 18, issue 12
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-3297-2018
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-3297-2018
Research article
 | 
13 Dec 2018
Research article |  | 13 Dec 2018

On the use of weather regimes to forecast meteorological drought over Europe

Christophe Lavaysse, Jürgen Vogt, Andrea Toreti, Marco L. Carrera, and Florian Pappenberger

Related authors

Impact of Convectively Coupled Tropical Waves on the composition and vertical structure of the atmosphere above Cabo Verde in September 2021 during the CADDIWA campaign
Tanguy Jonville, Maurus Borne, Cyrille Flamant, Juan Cuesta, Olivier Bock, Pierre Bosser, Christophe Lavaysse, Andreas Fink, and Peter Knippertz
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3606,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3606, 2025
Short summary
Subseasonal forecasts of heat waves in West African cities
Cedric G. Ngoungue Langue, Christophe Lavaysse, and Cyrille Flamant
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 147–168, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-147-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-147-2025, 2025
Short summary
Heat wave monitoring over West African cities: uncertainties, characterization and recent trends
Cedric Gacial Ngoungue Langue, Christophe Lavaysse, Mathieu Vrac, and Cyrille Flamant
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1313–1333, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1313-2023,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1313-2023, 2023
Short summary
Seasonal forecasts of the Saharan heat low characteristics: a multi-model assessment
Cedric G. Ngoungue Langue, Christophe Lavaysse, Mathieu Vrac, Philippe Peyrillé, and Cyrille Flamant
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 893–912, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-893-2021,https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-893-2021, 2021
Short summary
Wet and dry spells in Senegal: comparison of detection based on satellite products, reanalysis, and in situ estimates
Cheikh Modou Noreyni Fall, Christophe Lavaysse, Mamadou Simina Drame, Geremy Panthou, and Amadou Thierno Gaye
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1051–1069, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1051-2021,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1051-2021, 2021
Short summary

Related subject area

Atmospheric, Meteorological and Climatological Hazards
Compound winter low-wind and cold events impacting the French electricity system: observed evolution and role of large-scale circulation
François Collet, Margot Bador, Julien Boé, Laurent Dubus, and Bénédicte Jourdier
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 843–856, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-843-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-843-2025, 2025
Short summary
Probabilistic hazard analysis of the gas emission of Mefite d'Ansanto, southern Italy
Fabio Dioguardi, Giovanni Chiodini, and Antonio Costa
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 657–674, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-657-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-657-2025, 2025
Short summary
Are heavy-rainfall events a major trigger of associated natural hazards along the German rail network?
Sonja Szymczak, Frederick Bott, Vigile Marie Fabella, and Katharina Fricke
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 683–707, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-683-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-683-2025, 2025
Short summary
Brief communication: Forecasting extreme precipitation from atmospheric rivers in New Zealand
Daniel G. Kingston, Liam Cooper, David A. Lavers, and David M. Hannah
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 675–682, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-675-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-675-2025, 2025
Short summary
The record-breaking precipitation event of December 2022 in Portugal
Tiago M. Ferreira, Ricardo M. Trigo, Tomás H. Gaspar, Joaquim G. Pinto, and Alexandre M. Ramos
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 609–623, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-609-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-609-2025, 2025
Short summary

Cited articles

Boé, J.: Modulation of soil moisture–precipitation interactions over France by large scale circulation, Clim. Dynam., 40, 875–892, 2013. a
Cassou, C., Terray, L., and Phillips, A. S.: Tropical Atlantic influence on European heat waves, J. Climate, 18, 2805–2811, 2005. a
Cattiaux, J., Vautard, R., Cassou, C., Yiou, P., Masson-Delmotte, V., and Codron, F.: Winter 2010 in Europe: a cold extreme in a warming climate, Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, L20704, https://doi.org/10.1029/2010GL044613, 2010. a
Ferranti, L., Corti, S., and Janousek, M.: Flow-dependent verification of the ECMWF ensemble over the Euro-Atlantic sector, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 141, 916–924, 2015. a, b, c
Download
Short summary
Forecasting droughts in Europe 1 month in advance would provide valuable information for decision makers. However, these extreme events are still difficult to predict. In this study, we develop forecasts based on predictors using the geopotential anomalies, generally more predictable than precipitation, derived from the ECMWF model. Results show that this approach outperforms the prediction using precipitation, especially in winter and in northern Europe, where 65 % of droughts are predicted.
Share
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint