Articles | Volume 18, issue 12
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-3297-2018
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-3297-2018
Research article
 | 
13 Dec 2018
Research article |  | 13 Dec 2018

On the use of weather regimes to forecast meteorological drought over Europe

Christophe Lavaysse, Jürgen Vogt, Andrea Toreti, Marco L. Carrera, and Florian Pappenberger

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Cited articles

Boé, J.: Modulation of soil moisture–precipitation interactions over France by large scale circulation, Clim. Dynam., 40, 875–892, 2013. a
Cassou, C., Terray, L., and Phillips, A. S.: Tropical Atlantic influence on European heat waves, J. Climate, 18, 2805–2811, 2005. a
Cattiaux, J., Vautard, R., Cassou, C., Yiou, P., Masson-Delmotte, V., and Codron, F.: Winter 2010 in Europe: a cold extreme in a warming climate, Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, L20704, https://doi.org/10.1029/2010GL044613, 2010. a
Ferranti, L., Corti, S., and Janousek, M.: Flow-dependent verification of the ECMWF ensemble over the Euro-Atlantic sector, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 141, 916–924, 2015. a, b, c
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Forecasting droughts in Europe 1 month in advance would provide valuable information for decision makers. However, these extreme events are still difficult to predict. In this study, we develop forecasts based on predictors using the geopotential anomalies, generally more predictable than precipitation, derived from the ECMWF model. Results show that this approach outperforms the prediction using precipitation, especially in winter and in northern Europe, where 65 % of droughts are predicted.
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