Articles | Volume 18, issue 12
Research article
13 Dec 2018
Research article |  | 13 Dec 2018

On the use of weather regimes to forecast meteorological drought over Europe

Christophe Lavaysse, Jürgen Vogt, Andrea Toreti, Marco L. Carrera, and Florian Pappenberger

Related authors

Subseasonal-to-seasonal forecasts of Heat waves in West African cities
Cedric Gacial Ngoungue Langue, Christophe Lavaysse, and Cyrille Flamant
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss.,,, 2023
Preprint under review for NHESS
Short summary
Heat wave monitoring over West African cities: uncertainties, characterization and recent trends
Cedric Gacial Ngoungue Langue, Christophe Lavaysse, Mathieu Vrac, and Cyrille Flamant
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1313–1333,,, 2023
Short summary
Seasonal forecasts of the Saharan heat low characteristics: a multi-model assessment
Cedric G. Ngoungue Langue, Christophe Lavaysse, Mathieu Vrac, Philippe Peyrillé, and Cyrille Flamant
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 893–912,,, 2021
Short summary
Wet and dry spells in Senegal: comparison of detection based on satellite products, reanalysis, and in situ estimates
Cheikh Modou Noreyni Fall, Christophe Lavaysse, Mamadou Simina Drame, Geremy Panthou, and Amadou Thierno Gaye
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1051–1069,,, 2021
Short summary
Towards a monitoring system of temperature extremes in Europe
Christophe Lavaysse, Carmelo Cammalleri, Alessandro Dosio, Gerard van der Schrier, Andrea Toreti, and Jürgen Vogt
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 91–104,,, 2018
Short summary

Related subject area

Atmospheric, Meteorological and Climatological Hazards
Climatic characteristics of the Jianghuai cyclone and its linkage with precipitation during the Meiyu period from 1961 to 2020
Ran Zhu and Lei Chen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1937–1950,,, 2024
Short summary
Application of the teaching–learning-based optimization algorithm to an analytical model of thunderstorm outflows to analyze the variability of the downburst kinematic and geometric parameters
Andi Xhelaj and Massimiliano Burlando
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1657–1679,,, 2024
Short summary
Projections and uncertainties of winter windstorm damage in Europe in a changing climate
Luca G. Severino, Chahan M. Kropf, Hilla Afargan-Gerstman, Christopher Fairless, Andries Jan de Vries, Daniela I. V. Domeisen, and David N. Bresch
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1555–1578,,, 2024
Short summary
Improving seasonal predictions of German Bight storm activity
Daniel Krieger, Sebastian Brune, Johanna Baehr, and Ralf Weisse
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1539–1554,,, 2024
Short summary
A satellite view of the exceptionally warm summer of 2022 over Europe
João P. A. Martins, Sara Caetano, Carlos Pereira, Emanuel Dutra, and Rita M. Cardoso
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1501–1520,,, 2024
Short summary

Cited articles

Boé, J.: Modulation of soil moisture–precipitation interactions over France by large scale circulation, Clim. Dynam., 40, 875–892, 2013. a
Cassou, C., Terray, L., and Phillips, A. S.: Tropical Atlantic influence on European heat waves, J. Climate, 18, 2805–2811, 2005. a
Cattiaux, J., Vautard, R., Cassou, C., Yiou, P., Masson-Delmotte, V., and Codron, F.: Winter 2010 in Europe: a cold extreme in a warming climate, Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, L20704,, 2010. a
Ferranti, L., Corti, S., and Janousek, M.: Flow-dependent verification of the ECMWF ensemble over the Euro-Atlantic sector, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 141, 916–924, 2015. a, b, c
Short summary
Forecasting droughts in Europe 1 month in advance would provide valuable information for decision makers. However, these extreme events are still difficult to predict. In this study, we develop forecasts based on predictors using the geopotential anomalies, generally more predictable than precipitation, derived from the ECMWF model. Results show that this approach outperforms the prediction using precipitation, especially in winter and in northern Europe, where 65 % of droughts are predicted.
Final-revised paper