Articles | Volume 18, issue 12
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-3297-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-3297-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
13 Dec 2018
Research article |
| 13 Dec 2018
| 13 Dec 2018
On the use of weather regimes to forecast meteorological drought over Europe
Christophe Lavaysse
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
European Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC), 21027 Ispra (VA), Italy
Univ. Grenoble Alpes, CNRS, IRD, G-INP, IGE, 38000 Grenoble, France
Jürgen Vogt
European Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC), 21027 Ispra (VA), Italy
Andrea Toreti
European Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC), 21027 Ispra (VA), Italy
Marco L. Carrera
Environment and Climate Change Canada, Dorval, QC, Canada
Florian Pappenberger
ECMWF, Reading, UK
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Cited
22 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Evaluation of a New Precipitation-Based Index for Global Seasonal Forecasting of Unusually Wet and Dry Periods C. Lavaysse et al. 10.1175/WAF-D-19-0196.1
- Performance of dry and wet spells combined with remote sensing indicators for crop yield prediction in Senegal C. Fall et al. 10.1016/j.crm.2021.100331
- Regional Extreme Precipitation Events in Wintertime Japan Facilitated by East-Asian Large-Scale Flow Patterns T. Matsunobu et al. 10.2151/sola.2023-033
- Multivariate post‐processing of probabilistic sub‐seasonal weather regime forecasts F. Mockert et al. 10.1002/qj.4840
- Improving sub-seasonal forecast skill of meteorological drought: a weather pattern approach D. Richardson et al. 10.5194/nhess-20-107-2020
- Yearly evolution of Euro-Atlantic weather regimes and of their sub-seasonal predictability N. Cortesi et al. 10.1007/s00382-021-05679-y
- Modulation of European air quality by Euro-Atlantic weather regimes R. García-Herrera et al. 10.1016/j.atmosres.2022.106292
- Towards a holistic understanding of blocked regime dynamics through a combination of complementary diagnostic perspectives S. Hauser et al. 10.5194/wcd-4-399-2023
- Extreme precipitation events in the Mediterranean: Spatiotemporal characteristics and connection to large‐scale atmospheric flow patterns N. Mastrantonas et al. 10.1002/joc.6985
- The influence of weather regimes on European renewable energy production and demand K. van der Wiel et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/ab38d3
- Statistical physics and dynamical systems perspectives on geophysical extreme events D. Faranda et al. 10.1103/PhysRevE.110.041001
- What do large‐scale patterns teach us about extreme precipitation over the Mediterranean at medium‐ and extended‐range forecasts? N. Mastrantonas et al. 10.1002/qj.4236
- Characterization of European wind speed variability using weather regimes N. Cortesi et al. 10.1007/s00382-019-04839-5
- Quantifying climate model representation of the wintertime Euro-Atlantic circulation using geopotential-jet regimes J. Dorrington et al. 10.5194/wcd-3-505-2022
- Impact Forecasting to Support Emergency Management of Natural Hazards B. Merz et al. 10.1029/2020RG000704
- Reconstructing winter climate anomalies in the Euro-Atlantic sector using circulation patterns E. Madonna et al. 10.5194/wcd-2-777-2021
- Climate influence on compound solar and wind droughts in Australia D. Richardson et al. 10.1038/s41612-023-00507-y
- The Linkage of Serial Cyclone Clustering in Western Europe and Weather Regimes in the North Atlantic‐European Region in Boreal Winter S. Hauser et al. 10.1029/2022GL101900
- Dynamic-LSTM hybrid models to improve seasonal drought predictions over China Z. Wu et al. 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2022.128706
- Validating commonly used drought indicators in Kenya A. Bowell et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/ac16a2
- Challenges in the selection of atmospheric circulation patterns for the wind energy sector V. Torralba et al. 10.1002/joc.6881
- Offshore wind resource assessment by characterizing weather regimes based on self-organizing map S. Yang et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/aca2c2
22 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Evaluation of a New Precipitation-Based Index for Global Seasonal Forecasting of Unusually Wet and Dry Periods C. Lavaysse et al. 10.1175/WAF-D-19-0196.1
- Performance of dry and wet spells combined with remote sensing indicators for crop yield prediction in Senegal C. Fall et al. 10.1016/j.crm.2021.100331
- Regional Extreme Precipitation Events in Wintertime Japan Facilitated by East-Asian Large-Scale Flow Patterns T. Matsunobu et al. 10.2151/sola.2023-033
- Multivariate post‐processing of probabilistic sub‐seasonal weather regime forecasts F. Mockert et al. 10.1002/qj.4840
- Improving sub-seasonal forecast skill of meteorological drought: a weather pattern approach D. Richardson et al. 10.5194/nhess-20-107-2020
- Yearly evolution of Euro-Atlantic weather regimes and of their sub-seasonal predictability N. Cortesi et al. 10.1007/s00382-021-05679-y
- Modulation of European air quality by Euro-Atlantic weather regimes R. García-Herrera et al. 10.1016/j.atmosres.2022.106292
- Towards a holistic understanding of blocked regime dynamics through a combination of complementary diagnostic perspectives S. Hauser et al. 10.5194/wcd-4-399-2023
- Extreme precipitation events in the Mediterranean: Spatiotemporal characteristics and connection to large‐scale atmospheric flow patterns N. Mastrantonas et al. 10.1002/joc.6985
- The influence of weather regimes on European renewable energy production and demand K. van der Wiel et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/ab38d3
- Statistical physics and dynamical systems perspectives on geophysical extreme events D. Faranda et al. 10.1103/PhysRevE.110.041001
- What do large‐scale patterns teach us about extreme precipitation over the Mediterranean at medium‐ and extended‐range forecasts? N. Mastrantonas et al. 10.1002/qj.4236
- Characterization of European wind speed variability using weather regimes N. Cortesi et al. 10.1007/s00382-019-04839-5
- Quantifying climate model representation of the wintertime Euro-Atlantic circulation using geopotential-jet regimes J. Dorrington et al. 10.5194/wcd-3-505-2022
- Impact Forecasting to Support Emergency Management of Natural Hazards B. Merz et al. 10.1029/2020RG000704
- Reconstructing winter climate anomalies in the Euro-Atlantic sector using circulation patterns E. Madonna et al. 10.5194/wcd-2-777-2021
- Climate influence on compound solar and wind droughts in Australia D. Richardson et al. 10.1038/s41612-023-00507-y
- The Linkage of Serial Cyclone Clustering in Western Europe and Weather Regimes in the North Atlantic‐European Region in Boreal Winter S. Hauser et al. 10.1029/2022GL101900
- Dynamic-LSTM hybrid models to improve seasonal drought predictions over China Z. Wu et al. 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2022.128706
- Validating commonly used drought indicators in Kenya A. Bowell et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/ac16a2
- Challenges in the selection of atmospheric circulation patterns for the wind energy sector V. Torralba et al. 10.1002/joc.6881
- Offshore wind resource assessment by characterizing weather regimes based on self-organizing map S. Yang et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/aca2c2
Latest update: 04 Feb 2025
Short summary
Forecasting droughts in Europe 1 month in advance would provide valuable information for decision makers. However, these extreme events are still difficult to predict. In this study, we develop forecasts based on predictors using the geopotential anomalies, generally more predictable than precipitation, derived from the ECMWF model. Results show that this approach outperforms the prediction using precipitation, especially in winter and in northern Europe, where 65 % of droughts are predicted.
Forecasting droughts in Europe 1 month in advance would provide valuable information for...
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