On the use of weather regimes to forecast  meteorological drought over Europe

Lavaysse, Christophe; Vogt, Jürgen; Toreti, Andrea; Carrera, Marco L.; Pappenberger, Florian

doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-3297-2018

Articles | Volume 18, issue 12

https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-3297-2018

© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-3297-2018

© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Articles | Volume 18, issue 12

Research article

|

13 Dec 2018

Research article |

| 13 Dec 2018

On the use of weather regimes to forecast meteorological drought over Europe

Christophe Lavaysse, Jürgen Vogt, Andrea Toreti, Marco L. Carrera, and Florian Pappenberger

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Final revised paper (published on 13 Dec 2018)
Supplement to the final revised paper
Preprint (discussion started on 16 Jul 2018)
Supplement to the preprint

Interactive discussion

Status: closed

AC: Author comment | RC: Referee comment | SC: Short comment | EC: Editor comment

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RC1: 'Review of: "On the use of Weather Regimes to forecast meteorological drought over Europe" by C. Lavaysse et al.', Anonymous Referee #1, 02 Aug 2018
- AC1: 'Response of reviewer 1', Christophe Lavaysse, 08 Oct 2018
RC2: 'Review of manuscript nhess-2018-199', Anonymous Referee #2, 14 Aug 2018
- AC2: 'Reply to Reviewer 2', Christophe Lavaysse, 08 Oct 2018

Peer-review completion

AR: Author's response | RR: Referee report | ED: Editor decision

ED: Reconsider after major revisions (further review by editor and referees) (14 Oct 2018) by Joaquim G. Pinto

AR by Christophe Lavaysse on behalf of the Authors (30 Oct 2018) Author's response

ED: Referee Nomination & Report Request started (02 Nov 2018) by Joaquim G. Pinto

RR by Anonymous Referee #2 (25 Nov 2018)

Suggestions for revision or reasons for rejection

Second Review of manuscript nhess-2018-199 entitled
"On the use of Weather Regimes to forecast meteorological drought over Europe"
by C. Lavaysse, J. Vogt, A. Toreti, M. Carrera, and F. Pappenberger

This is my second review of the study. The paper has been improved through a clearer writing style, more thorough introduction of the data and methods used, corrected references to figures and tables, as well as improved figure/table captions. Most of my previous comments have been addressed adequately. Still I think my previous broader comment 5 should be adressed more thoroughly. I do not agree, that the minor comment of R1 justifies not adressing this topic in the introduction at all. Still the paper could be stronger if it directly referred to the other work in the context of weather regime surface weather linkages and weather regimes and climate change. This would emphasise the broader context of your work.

Overall the paper is now suitable for publication in NHESS.

Comments:

Former Broader Comment 5. "Some more literature could be cited: E.g. studies by Lavers et al. 2016ab and Ferranti et al. 2018, also support the idea that large-scale fields provide more predictability for a local weather phenomenon than trying to predict the phenomenon itself. Linkage to climate change could be mentioned e.g. with Santos et al. 2016 or Schaller et al. 2018 in the outlook. Linkage of weather regimes to other surface variables e.g. wind could be mentioned (e.g. Grams et al. 2017)."

Still I think there is room on p2 l16ff to mention the robustness of the linkage of hot&dry extremes in climate models (Schaller et al. 2018). On p2 l 13 wind modulation by regimes could also briefly be mentioned. Alternately and in addition the Conclusions might be the place where to discuss potential impact of climate change.

Actual Supplemental Figure captions still have numbers without the "S" (Fig. 1 instead of Fig. S1). I noticed, that you still refer to these using, the "S" convention, which really helps.

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RR by Anonymous Referee #1 (26 Nov 2018)

ED: Publish subject to technical corrections (29 Nov 2018) by Joaquim G. Pinto

AR by Christophe Lavaysse on behalf of the Authors (04 Dec 2018) Author's response Manuscript

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Short summary

Forecasting droughts in Europe 1 month in advance would provide valuable information for decision makers. However, these extreme events are still difficult to predict. In this study, we develop forecasts based on predictors using the geopotential anomalies, generally more predictable than precipitation, derived from the ECMWF model. Results show that this approach outperforms the prediction using precipitation, especially in winter and in northern Europe, where 65 % of droughts are predicted.