Articles | Volume 15, issue 5
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-947-2015
© Author(s) 2015. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-947-2015
© Author(s) 2015. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Research article
| 
07 May 2015
Research article |
| 07 May 2015
Interdependence and dynamics of essential services in an extensive risk context: a case study in Montserrat, West Indies
V. L. Sword-Daniels
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Centre for Urban Sustainability and Resilience, Department of Civil, Environmental and Geomatic Engineering, University College London, London, UK
EPICentre, Department of Civil, Environmental and Geomatic Engineering, University College London, London, UK
T. Rossetto
EPICentre, Department of Civil, Environmental and Geomatic Engineering, University College London, London, UK
T. M. Wilson
Department of Geological Sciences, University of Canterbury, Christchurch, New Zealand
S. Sargeant
British Geological Survey, Murchison House, West Mains Road, Edinburgh, UK
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Nicola J. McDonald, Leslie Dowling, Emily P. Harvey, Alana M. Weir, Mark S. Bebbington, Nam Bui, Christina Magill, Heather M. Craig, Garry W. McDonald, Juan Monge, Shane J. Cronin, Thomas M. Wilson, and Duncan Walker
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3619, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3619, 2024
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We quantify future economic impacts of volcanic events for dairy farms in Taranaki, New Zealand. The model we develop could be applied to other hazard and agricultural land use contexts. To address uncertainty, 10,000 possible volcanic futures are simulated, and results are collated in risk-type metrics and data visualisations. The results highlight variation in risk exposure across the farms and that volcanic risk could play an important future role in shaping Taranaki’s dairy sector.
Sébastien Biass, Susanna F. Jenkins, William H. Aeberhard, Pierre Delmelle, and Thomas Wilson
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2829–2855, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2829-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2829-2022, 2022
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We present a methodology that combines big Earth observation data and interpretable machine learning to revisit the impact of past volcanic eruptions recorded in archives of multispectral satellite imagery. Using Google Earth Engine and dedicated numerical modelling, we revisit and constrain processes controlling vegetation vulnerability to tephra fallout following the 2011 eruption of Cordón Caulle volcano, illustrating how this approach can inform the development of risk-reduction policies.
James H. Williams, Thomas M. Wilson, Nick Horspool, Ryan Paulik, Liam Wotherspoon, Emily M. Lane, and Matthew W. Hughes
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 451–470, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-451-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-451-2020, 2020
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Post-event field survey data from two tsunami events, the 2011 Tōhoku tsunami, Japan, and the 2015 Illapel tsunami, Chile, are used in this study to develop fragility functions for roads and bridges. This study demonstrates the effectiveness of supplementing post-event field surveys with remotely sensed data. The resulting fragility functions address a substantial research gap in tsunami impacts on infrastructure and include a range of subtleties in asset and hazard characteristics.
Indranil Kongar, Tiziana Rossetto, and Sonia Giovinazzi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 781–800, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-781-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-781-2017, 2017
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The purpose of this research is to evaluate the predictive capability of simplified liquefaction models that can be applied across wide geographical areas for insurance and risk management purposes. Predictions from nine models are compared to observations from the Canterbury earthquake sequence and finds that models based on a previously proposed Liquefaction Potential Index perform the best, whilst the commonly used HAZUS methodology does not perform well.
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Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 49–76, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-49-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-49-2025, 2025
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There is a global need for insuring green economy assets against natural hazard events. But their complexity and low exposure history mean the data required for vulnerability evaluation by the insurance industry are scarce. A systematic literature review is conducted in this study to determine the suitability of current published literature for this purpose. Knowledge gaps are charted, and a representative asset–hazard taxonomy is proposed to guide future quantitative research.
Gabriela Guimarães Nobre, Jamie Towner, Bernardino Nhantumbo, Célio João da Conceição Marcos Matuele, Isaias Raiva, Massimiliano Pasqui, Sara Quaresima, and Rogério Manuel Lemos Pereira Bonifácio
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4661–4682, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4661-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4661-2024, 2024
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The
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Elisabeth Schoepfer, Jörn Lauterjung, Torsten Riedlinger, Harald Spahn, Juan Camilo Gómez Zapata, Christian D. León, Hugo Rosero-Velásquez, Sven Harig, Michael Langbein, Nils Brinckmann, Günter Strunz, Christian Geiß, and Hannes Taubenböck
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Saskia Arndt and Stefan Heiland
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Laura T. Massano, Giorgia Fosser, Marco Gaetani, and Cécile Caillaud
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María-Paz Reyes-Hardy, Luigia Sara Di Maio, Lucia Dominguez, Corine Frischknecht, Sébastien Biass, Leticia Freitas Guimarães, Amiel Nieto-Torres, Manuela Elissondo, Gabriela Pedreros, Rigoberto Aguilar, Álvaro Amigo, Sebastián García, Pablo Forte, and Costanza Bonadonna
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4267–4291, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4267-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4267-2024, 2024
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Mario A. Salgado-Gálvez, Mario Ordaz, Benjamín Huerta, Osvaldo Garay, Carlos Avelar, Ettore Fagà, Mohsen Kohrangi, Paola Ceresa, Georgios Triantafyllou, and Ulugbek T. Begaliev
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3851–3868, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3851-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3851-2024, 2024
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Zhuyu Yang, Bruno Barroca, Ahmed Mebarki, Katia Laffréchine, Hélène Dolidon, and Lionel Lilas
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3723–3753, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3723-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3723-2024, 2024
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Natalie Piazza, Luca Malanchini, Edoardo Nevola, and Giorgio Vacchiano
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3579–3595, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3579-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3579-2024, 2024
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Peng Zou, Gang Luo, Yuzhang Bi, and Hanhua Xu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3497–3517, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3497-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3497-2024, 2024
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The pile–slab retaining wall, an innovative rockfall shield, is widely used in China's western mountains. However, its dynamic impact response and resistance remain unclear due to structural complexity. A comprehensive dynamic analysis of the structure, under various impacts, was done using the finite-element method. The maximum impact energy that the structure can withstand is 905 kJ, and various indexes were obtained.
Cassiano Bastos Moroz and Annegret H. Thieken
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3299–3314, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3299-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3299-2024, 2024
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Fangyu Tian, Yun Su, Xudong Chen, and Le Tao
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-159, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-159, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
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This study developed a model of extreme drought-induced famine processes and response mechanisms in ancient China. Spatial distribution of drought and famine during the Chenghua Drought and the Wanli Drought was constructed. By categorizing drought-affected counties into three types, a comparative analysis of the differences in famine severity and response effectiveness between the Chenghua and Wanli droughts was conducted.
Nadja Veigel, Heidi Kreibich, Jens A. de Bruijn, Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts, and Andrea Cominola
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2556, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2556, 2024
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This study explores how social media, specifically Twitter (X), can help understand public reactions to floods in Germany from 2014 to 2021. Using large language models, we extract topics and patterns of behavior from flood-related tweets. The findings offer insights to improve communication and disaster management. Topics related to low-impact flooding contain descriptive hazard-related content, while the focus shifts to catastrophic impacts and responsibilities during high-impact events.
Andra-Cosmina Albulescu and Iuliana Armaș
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2895–2922, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2895-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2895-2024, 2024
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This study delves into the dynamics of vulnerability within a multi-hazard context, proposing an enhanced impact-chain-based framework that analyses the augmentation of vulnerability. The case study refers to the flood events and the COVID-19 pandemic that affected Romania (2020–2021). The impact chain shows that (1) the unforeseen implications of impacts, (2) the wrongful action of adaptation options, and (3) inaction can form the basis for increased vulnerability.
Marie-Luise Zenker, Philip Bubeck, and Annegret H. Thieken
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2837–2856, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2837-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2837-2024, 2024
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Despite the visible flood damage, mental health is a growing concern. Yet, there is limited data in Germany on mental health impacts after floods. A survey in a heavily affected region revealed that 28 % of respondents showed signs of post-traumatic stress disorder 1 year later. Risk factors include gender, serious injury or illness due to flooding, and feeling left alone to cope with impacts. The study highlights the need for tailored mental health support for flood-affected populations.
Mohsen Ghafory-Ashtiany and Hooman Motamed
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2707–2726, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2707-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2707-2024, 2024
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Iranian insurers have been offering earthquake coverage since the 1990s. However, despite international best practices, they still do not use modern methods for risk pricing and management. As such, they seem to be accumulating seismic risk over time. This paper examines the viability of this market in Iran by comparing the local market practices with international best practices in earthquake risk pricing (catastrophe modeling) and insurance risk management (European Solvency II regime).
Javier Revilla Diez, Roxana Leitold, Van Tran, and Matthias Garschagen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2425–2440, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2425-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2425-2024, 2024
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Micro-businesses, often overlooked in adaptation research, show surprising willingness to contribute to collective adaptation despite limited finances and local support. Based on a study in Ho Chi Minh City in Vietnam, approximately 70 % are ready for awareness campaigns, and 39 % would provide financial support if costs were shared. These findings underscore the need for increased involvement of micro-businesses in local adaptation plans to enhance collective adaptive capacity.
Kang He, Qing Yang, Xinyi Shen, Elias Dimitriou, Angeliki Mentzafou, Christina Papadaki, Maria Stoumboudi, and Emmanouil N. Anagnostou
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2375–2382, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2375-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2375-2024, 2024
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About 820 km2 of agricultural land was inundated in central Greece due to Storm Daniel. A detailed analysis revealed that the crop most affected by the flooding was cotton; the inundated area of more than 282 km2 comprised ~ 30 % of the total area planted with cotton in central Greece. In terms of livestock, we estimate that more than 14 000 ornithoids and 21 500 sheep and goats were affected. Consequences for agriculture and animal husbandry in Greece are expected to be severe.
Gabriele Bertoli, Chiara Arrighi, and Enrica Caporali
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-105, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-105, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
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Environmental assets are crucial to sustain and fulfil life on Earth through ecosystem services. Assessing their flood risk is thus seminal, besides required by several norms. Even though, this field is not yet sufficiently developed. We explored the exposure component of the flood risk, and developed an evaluating methodology based on the ecosystem services provided by the environmental assets, to discern assets and areas more important than others with metrics suitable to large scale studies.
Hannes Lauer, Carmeli Marie C. Chaves, Evelyn Lorenzo, Sonia Islam, and Jörn Birkmann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2243–2261, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2243-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2243-2024, 2024
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In many urban areas, people face high exposure to hazards. Resettling them to safer locations becomes a major strategy, not least because of climate change. This paper dives into the success factors of government-led resettlement in Manila and finds surprising results which challenge the usual narrative and fuel the conversation on resettlement as an adaptation strategy. Contrary to expectations, the location – whether urban or rural – of the new home is less important than safety from floods.
Marina Batalini de Macedo, Marcos Roberto Benso, Karina Simone Sass, Eduardo Mario Mendiondo, Greicelene Jesus da Silva, Pedro Gustavo Câmara da Silva, Elisabeth Shrimpton, Tanaya Sarmah, Da Huo, Michael Jacobson, Abdullah Konak, Nazmiye Balta-Ozkan, and Adelaide Cassia Nardocci
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2165–2173, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2165-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2165-2024, 2024
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With climate change, societies increasingly need to adapt to deal with more severe droughts and the impacts they can have on food production. To make better adaptation decisions, drought resilience indicators can be used. To build these indicators, surveys with experts can be done. However, designing surveys is a costly process that can influence how experts respond. In this communication, we aim to deal with the challenges encountered in the development of surveys to help further research.
Vakhitkhan Alikhanovich Ismailov, Sharofiddin Ismatullayevich Yodgorov, Akhror Sabriddinovich Khusomiddinov, Eldor Makhmadiyorovich Yadigarov, Bekzod Uktamovich Aktamov, and Shuhrat Bakhtiyorovich Avazov
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2133–2146, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2133-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2133-2024, 2024
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For the basis of seismic risk assessment, maps of seismic intensity increment and an improved map of seismic hazard have been developed, taking into account the engineering-geological conditions of the territory of Uzbekistan and the seismic characteristics of soils. For seismic risk map development, databases were created based on geographic information system platforms, allowing us to systematize and evaluate the regional distribution of information.
Harkunti Pertiwi Rahayu, Khonsa Indana Zulfa, Dewi Nurhasanah, Richard Haigh, Dilanthi Amaratunga, and In In Wahdiny
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2045–2064, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2045-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2045-2024, 2024
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Transboundary flood risk management in the Ciliwung River basin is placed in a broader context of disaster management, environmental science, and governance. This is particularly relevant for areas of research involving the management of shared water resources, the impact of regional development on flood risk, and strategies to reduce economic losses from flooding.
Lichen Yu, Hao Qin, Shining Huang, Wei Wei, Haoyu Jiang, and Lin Mu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2003–2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2003-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2003-2024, 2024
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This paper proposes a quantitative storm surge risk assessment method for data-deficient regions. A coupled model is used to simulate five storm surge scenarios. Deep learning is used to extract building footprints. Economic losses are calculated by combining adjusted depth–damage functions with inundation simulation results. Zoning maps illustrate risk levels based on economic losses, aiding in disaster prevention measures to reduce losses in coastal areas.
Maurice W. M. L. Kalthof, Jens de Bruijn, Hans de Moel, Heidi Kreibich, and Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1588, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1588, 2024
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Our study explores how farmers in India's Bhima basin respond to consecutive droughts. We simulated all farmers' individual choices—like changing crops or digging wells—and their effects on profits, yields, and water resources. Results show these adaptations, while improving incomes, ultimately increase drought vulnerability and damages. Such insights emphasize the need for alternative adaptations and highlight the value of socio-hydrology models in shaping policies to lessen drought impacts.
Stephen B. Ferencz, Ning Sun, Sean W. D. Turner, Brian A. Smith, and Jennie S. Rice
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1871–1896, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1871-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1871-2024, 2024
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Drought has long posed an existential threat to society. Population growth, economic development, and the potential for more extreme and prolonged droughts due to climate change pose significant water security challenges. Better understanding the impacts and adaptive responses resulting from extreme drought can aid adaptive planning. The 2008–2015 record drought in the Colorado Basin, Texas, United States, is used as a case study to assess impacts and responses to severe drought.
Alex Dunant, Tom R. Robinson, Alexander Logan Densmore, Nick J. Rosser, Ragindra Man Rajbhandari, Mark Kincey, Sihan Li, Prem Raj Awasthi, Max Van Wyk de Vries, Ramesh Guragain, Erin Harvey, and Simon Dadson
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1374, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1374, 2024
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Our study introduces a new method using hypergraph theory to assess risks from interconnected natural hazards. Traditional models often overlook how these hazards can interact and worsen each other's effects. By applying our method to the 2015 Nepal earthquake, we successfully demonstrated its ability to predict broad damage patterns, despite slightly overestimating impacts. Being able to anticipate the effects of complex, interconnected hazards is critical for disaster preparedness.
Leandro Iannacone, Kenneth Otárola, Roberto Gentile, and Carmine Galasso
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1721–1740, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1721-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1721-2024, 2024
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The paper presents a review of the available classifications for hazard interactions in a multi-hazard context, and it incorporates such classifications from a modeling perspective. The outcome is a sequential Monte Carlo approach enabling efficient simulation of multi-hazard event sets (i.e., sequences of events throughout the life cycle). These event sets can then be integrated into frameworks for the quantification of consequences for the purposes of life cycle consequence (LCCon) analysis.
Rodrigo Cienfuegos, Gonzalo Álvarez, Jorge León, Alejandro Urrutia, and Sebastián Castro
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1485–1500, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1485-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1485-2024, 2024
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This study carries out a detailed analysis of possible tsunami evacuation scenarios in the city of Iquique in Chile. Evacuation modeling and tsunami modeling are integrated, allowing for an estimation of the potential number of people that the inundation may reach under different scenarios by emulating the dynamics and behavior of the population and their decision-making regarding the starting time of the evacuation.
Laurine A. de Wolf, Peter J. Robinson, W. J. Wouter Botzen, Toon Haer, Jantsje M. Mol, and Jeffrey Czajkowski
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1303–1318, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1303-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1303-2024, 2024
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An understanding of flood risk perceptions may aid in improving flood risk communication. We conducted a survey among 871 coastal residents in Florida who were threatened to be flooded by Hurricane Dorian. Part of the original sample was resurveyed after Dorian failed to make landfall to investigate changes in risk perception. We find a strong influence of previous flood experience and social norms on flood risk perceptions. Furthermore, flood risk perceptions declined after the near-miss event.
Christian Geiß, Jana Maier, Emily So, Elisabeth Schoepfer, Sven Harig, Juan Camilo Gómez Zapata, and Yue Zhu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1051–1064, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1051-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1051-2024, 2024
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We establish a model of future geospatial population distributions to quantify the number of people living in earthquake-prone and tsunami-prone areas of Lima and Callao, Peru, for the year 2035. Areas of high earthquake intensity will experience a population growth of almost 30 %. The population in the tsunami inundation area is estimated to grow by more than 60 %. Uncovering those relations can help urban planners and policymakers to develop effective risk mitigation strategies.
Chiara Scaini, Alberto Tamaro, Baurzhan Adilkhan, Satbek Sarzhanov, Vakhitkhan Ismailov, Ruslan Umaraliev, Mustafo Safarov, Vladimir Belikov, Japar Karayev, and Ettore Faga
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 929–945, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-929-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-929-2024, 2024
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Central Asia is highly exposed to multiple hazards, including earthquakes, floods and landslides, for which risk reduction strategies are currently under development. We provide a regional-scale database of assets at risk, including population and residential buildings, based on existing information and recent data collected for each Central Asian country. The population and number of buildings are also estimated for the year 2080 to support the definition of disaster risk reduction strategies.
Tianyang Yu, Banghua Lu, Hui Jiang, and Zhi Liu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 803–822, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-803-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-803-2024, 2024
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A basic database for seismic risk assessment of 720 urban water supply systems in mainland China is established. The parameters of the seismic risk curves of 720 cities are calculated. The seismic fragility curves of various facilities in the water supply system are given based on the logarithmic normal distribution model. The expected seismic loss and the expected loss rate index of 720 urban water supply systems in mainland China in the medium and long term are given.
Connor Darlington, Jonathan Raikes, Daniel Henstra, Jason Thistlethwaite, and Emma K. Raven
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 699–714, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-699-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-699-2024, 2024
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The impacts of climate change on local floods require precise maps that clearly demarcate changes to flood exposure; however, most maps lack important considerations that reduce their utility in policy and decision-making. This article presents a new approach to identifying current and projected flood exposure using a 5 m model. The results highlight advancements in the mapping of flood exposure with implications for flood risk management.
Duanyang Liu, Tian Jing, Mingyue Yan, Ismail Gultepe, Yunxuan Bao, Hongbin Wang, and Fan Zu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-230, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-230, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
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The highway-blocking events are characterized by diurnal variation. A classification method of severity levels of highway blocking is developed into five levels. The severity levels of highway blocking due to high-impact weather are evaluated. A method for calculating the degree of highway load in China is proposed. A quantitative assessment of the losses of highway blocking due to dense fog is conducted. The highway losses caused by dense fog are concentrated in North, East and Southwest China.
Chiara Arrighi and Alessio Domeneghetti
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 673–679, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-673-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-673-2024, 2024
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In this communication, we reflect on environmental flood impacts by analysing the reported environmental consequences of the 2023 Emilia-Romagna floods. The most frequently reported damage involves water resources and water-related ecosystems. Indirect effects in time and space, intrinsic recovery capacity, cascade impacts on socio-economic systems, and the lack of established monitoring activities appear to be the most challenging aspects for future research.
Chiara Scaini, Alberto Tamaro, Baurzhan Adilkhan, Satbek Sarzhanov, Zukhritdin Ergashev, Ruslan Umaraliev, Mustafo Safarov, Vladimir Belikov, Japar Karayev, and Ettore Fagà
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 355–373, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-355-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-355-2024, 2024
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Central Asia is prone to multiple hazards such as floods, landslides and earthquakes, which can affect a wide range of assets at risk. We develop the first regionally consistent database of assets at risk for non-residential buildings, transportation and croplands in Central Asia. The database combines global and regional data sources and country-based information and supports the development of regional-scale disaster risk reduction strategies for the Central Asia region.
Mersedeh Kooshki Forooshani, Marc van den Homberg, Kyriaki Kalimeri, Andreas Kaltenbrunner, Yelena Mejova, Leonardo Milano, Pauline Ndirangu, Daniela Paolotti, Aklilu Teklesadik, and Monica L. Turner
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 309–329, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-309-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-309-2024, 2024
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We improve an existing impact forecasting model for the Philippines by transforming the target variable (percentage of damaged houses) to a fine grid, using only features which are globally available. We show that our two-stage model conserves the performance of the original and even has the potential to introduce savings in anticipatory action resources. Such model generalizability is important in increasing the applicability of such tools around the world.
Jia Xu, Makoto Takahashi, and Weifu Li
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 179–197, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-179-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-179-2024, 2024
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Through the development of micro-individual social vulnerability indicators and cluster analysis, this study assessed the level of social vulnerability of 599 residents from 11 communities in the Hongshan District of Wuhan. The findings reveal three levels of social vulnerability: high, medium, and low. Quantitative assessments offer specific comparisons between distinct units, and the results indicate that different types of communities have significant differences in social vulnerability.
Tommaso Piseddu, Mathilda Englund, and Karina Barquet
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 145–161, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-145-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-145-2024, 2024
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Contributions to social capital, risk awareness, and preparedness constitute the parameters to test applications in disaster risk management. We propose an evaluation of four of these: mobile positioning data, social media crowdsourcing, drones, and satellite imaging. The analysis grants the opportunity to investigate how different methods to evaluate surveys' results may influence final preferences. We find that the different assumptions on which these methods rely deliver diverging results.
Yuting Zhang, Kai Liu, Xiaoyong Ni, Ming Wang, Jianchun Zheng, Mengting Liu, and Dapeng Yu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 63–77, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-63-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-63-2024, 2024
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This article is aimed at developing a method to quantify the influence of inclement weather on the accessibility of emergency medical services (EMSs) in Beijing, China, and identifying the vulnerable areas that could not get timely EMSs under inclement weather. We found that inclement weather could reduce the accessibility of EMSs by up to 40%. Furthermore, towns with lower baseline EMSs accessibility are more vulnerable when inclement weather occurs.
Soheil Mohammadi, Silvia De Angeli, Giorgio Boni, Francesca Pirlone, and Serena Cattari
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 79–107, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-79-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-79-2024, 2024
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This paper critically reviews disaster recovery literature from a multi-risk perspective. Identified key challenges encompass the lack of approaches integrating physical reconstruction and socio-economic recovery, the neglect of multi-risk interactions, the limited exploration of recovery from a pre-disaster planning perspective, and the low consideration of disaster recovery as a non-linear process in which communities need change over time.
Emilio Berny, Carlos Avelar, Mario A. Salgado-Gálvez, and Mario Ordaz
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 53–62, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-53-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-53-2024, 2024
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This paper presents a methodology to estimate the total emergency costs based on modelled damages for earthquakes and floods, together with the demographic and building characteristics of the study area. The methodology has been applied in five countries in central Asia, the first time that these estimates are made available for the study area and are intended to be useful for regional and local stakeholders and decision makers.
Henrique M. D. Goulart, Irene Benito Lazaro, Linda van Garderen, Karin van der Wiel, Dewi Le Bars, Elco Koks, and Bart van den Hurk
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 29–45, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-29-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-29-2024, 2024
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We explore how Hurricane Sandy (2012) could flood New York City under different scenarios, including climate change and internal variability. We find that sea level rise can quadruple coastal flood volumes, while changes in Sandy's landfall location can double flood volumes. Our results show the need for diverse scenarios that include climate change and internal variability and for integrating climate information into a modelling framework, offering insights for high-impact event assessments.
Francesco Caleca, Chiara Scaini, William Frodella, and Veronica Tofani
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 13–27, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-13-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-13-2024, 2024
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Landslide risk analysis is a powerful tool because it allows us to identify where physical and economic losses could occur due to a landslide event. The purpose of our work was to provide the first regional-scale analysis of landslide risk for central Asia, and it represents an advanced step in the field of risk analysis for very large areas. Our findings show, per square kilometer, a total risk of about USD 3.9 billion and a mean risk of USD 0.6 million.
Marta Sapena, Moritz Gamperl, Marlene Kühnl, Carolina Garcia-Londoño, John Singer, and Hannes Taubenböck
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3913–3930, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3913-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3913-2023, 2023
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A new approach for the deployment of landslide early warning systems (LEWSs) is proposed. We combine data-driven landslide susceptibility mapping and population maps to identify exposed locations. We estimate the cost of monitoring sensors and demonstrate that LEWSs could be installed with a budget ranging from EUR 5 to EUR 41 per person in Medellín, Colombia. We provide recommendations for stakeholders and outline the challenges and opportunities for successful LEWS implementation.
Dong Qiu, Binglin Lv, Yuepeng Cui, and Zexiong Zhan
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3789–3803, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3789-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3789-2023, 2023
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This paper divides preparedness behavior into minimal and adequate preparedness. In addition to studying the main factors that promote families' disaster preparedness, we also study the moderating effects of response efficacy and self-efficacy on preparedness actions by vulnerable families. Based on the findings of this study, policymakers can target interventions and programs that can be designed to remedy the current lack of disaster preparedness education for vulnerable families.
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Short summary
There is a high degree of dependency between different critical infrastructures, which can pass on disruptions between interconnected sectors. This empirical study presents a new qualitative methodology for exploring the complexities of interdependent systems in a real-world context. We identify many different relationships across a network that transform in type and number when exposed to hazards, which add capacities to some sectors. This improves understanding of infrastructure resilience.
There is a high degree of dependency between different critical infrastructures, which can pass...
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