Articles | Volume 15, issue 11
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-2525-2015
© Author(s) 2015. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-2525-2015
© Author(s) 2015. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Review article
| 
20 Nov 2015
Review article |
| 20 Nov 2015
Review Article: Atmospheric conditions inducing extreme precipitation over the eastern and western Mediterranean
U. Dayan
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Department of Geography, Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Jerusalem, Israel
K. Nissen
Institute of Meteorology, Free University of Berlin, Berlin, Germany
U. Ulbrich
Institute of Meteorology, Free University of Berlin, Berlin, Germany
Related authors
Baruch Ziv, Uri Dayan, Lidiya Shendrik, and Elyakom Vadislavsky
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3267–3277, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3267-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3267-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The train effect is related to convective cells that pass over the same place. Trains produce heavy rainfall and sometimes floods and are reported in North America during spring and summer. In Israel, 17 trains associated with Cyprus lows were identified by radar images and were found within the cold sector south of the low center and in the left flank of a maximum wind belt; they cross the Israeli coast, with a mean length of 45 km; last 1–3 h; and yield 35 mm of rainfall up to 60 mm.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Uri Dayan, Itamar M. Lensky, Baruch Ziv, and Pavel Khain
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1583–1597, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1583-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1583-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
An intense rainstorm hit the Middle East between 24 and 27 April 2018. The storm reached its peak over Israel on 26 April when a heavy flash flood took the lives of 10 people. The rainfall was comparable to the long-term annual rainfall in the southern Negev. The timing was the end of the rainy season when rain is rare and spotty. The study analyses the dynamic and thermodynamic conditions that made this rainstorm one of the latest spring severe events in the region during the last 3 decades.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Uri Dayan, Philippe Ricaud, Régina Zbinden, and François Dulac
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 13233–13263, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-13233-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-13233-2017, 2017
Subham Mukherjee, Kei Namba, Katrin M. Nissen, Ehsan Razipoor, Stefan Heiland, and Brigitta Schütt
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-469, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-469, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS).
Short summary
Short summary
Berlin’s parks are vital for recreation, biodiversity, and climate resilience, yet they face growing challenges from socio-economic inequalities and climate change. Our review examines how factors like gentrification and extreme weather impact access to and sustainability of these parks. By analysing over 200 studies, we highlight the need for inclusive policies, community engagement, and climate-adaptive park designs to ensure that Berlin’s parks remain accessible, resilient, and socially just.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Pedro Henrique Lima Alencar, Saskia Arndt, Kei Namba, Márk Somogyvári, Frederik Bart, Fabio Brill, Juan Dueñas, Peter Feindt, Daniel Johnson, Nariman Mahmoodi, Christoph Merz, Subham Mukherjee, Katrin Nissen, Eva Nora Paton, Tobias Sauter, Dörthe Tetzlaff, Franziska Tügel, Thomas Vogelpohl, Stenka Valentinova Vulova, Behnam Zamani, and Hui Hui Zhang
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-428, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-428, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
As climate change escalates, the Berlin-Brandenburg region faces new challenges. Climate change-induced extreme events are expected to cause new conflicts to emerge and aggravate existing ones. To guide future research, we co-develop a list of key questions on climate and water challenges in the region. Our findings highlight the need for new research approaches. We expect this list to provide a roadmap for actionable knowledge production to address climate and water challenges in the region.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Franziska Tügel, Katrin M. Nissen, Lennart Steffen, Yangwei Zhang, Uwe Ulbrich, and Reinhard Hinkelmann
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-445, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-445, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This study examines how extreme rainfall in Berlin, Germany, may intensify due to global warming and how that could worsen flooding in a selected part of the city. We assess the role of the drainage system, infiltration from unsealed surfaces, and a potential adaptation scenario with all roofs as retention roofs in reducing flooding under extreme rainfall. Combining climate and hydrodynamic simulations, we provide insights into future challenges and possible solutions for urban flood management.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Elena Xoplaki, Florian Ellsäßer, Jens Grieger, Katrin M. Nissen, Joaquim G. Pinto, Markus Augenstein, Ting-Chen Chen, Hendrik Feldmann, Petra Friederichs, Daniel Gliksman, Laura Goulier, Karsten Haustein, Jens Heinke, Lisa Jach, Florian Knutzen, Stefan Kollet, Jürg Luterbacher, Niklas Luther, Susanna Mohr, Christoph Mudersbach, Christoph Müller, Efi Rousi, Felix Simon, Laura Suarez-Gutierrez, Svenja Szemkus, Sara M. Vallejo-Bernal, Odysseas Vlachopoulos, and Frederik Wolf
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 541–564, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-541-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-541-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Europe frequently experiences compound events, with major impacts. We investigate these events’ interactions, characteristics, and changes over time, focusing on socio-economic impacts in Germany and central Europe. Highlighting 2018’s extreme events, this study reveals impacts on water, agriculture, and forests and stresses the need for impact-focused definitions and better future risk quantification to support adaptation planning.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Viet Dung Nguyen, Sergiy Vorogushyn, Katrin Nissen, Lukas Brunner, and Bruno Merz
Adv. Stat. Clim. Meteorol. Oceanogr., 10, 195–216, https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-10-195-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-10-195-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We present a novel stochastic weather generator conditioned on circulation patterns and regional temperature, accounting for dynamic and thermodynamic atmospheric changes. We extensively evaluate the model for the central European region. It statistically downscales precipitation for future periods, generating long, spatially and temporally consistent series. Results suggest an increase in extreme precipitation over the region, offering key benefits for hydrological impact studies.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Baruch Ziv, Uri Dayan, Lidiya Shendrik, and Elyakom Vadislavsky
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3267–3277, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3267-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3267-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The train effect is related to convective cells that pass over the same place. Trains produce heavy rainfall and sometimes floods and are reported in North America during spring and summer. In Israel, 17 trains associated with Cyprus lows were identified by radar images and were found within the cold sector south of the low center and in the left flank of a maximum wind belt; they cross the Israeli coast, with a mean length of 45 km; last 1–3 h; and yield 35 mm of rainfall up to 60 mm.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Andreas Trojand, Henning Rust, and Uwe Ulbrich
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1506, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1506, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The study investigates how the intensity of previous windstorm events and the time between two events affect the vulnerability of residential buildings in Germany. By analyzing 23 years of data, it was found that higher intensity of previous events generally reduces vulnerability in subsequent storms, while shorter intervals between events increase vulnerability. The results emphasize the approach of considering vulnerability in risk assessments as temporal dynamic.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Bjorn Stevens, Stefan Adami, Tariq Ali, Hartwig Anzt, Zafer Aslan, Sabine Attinger, Jaana Bäck, Johanna Baehr, Peter Bauer, Natacha Bernier, Bob Bishop, Hendryk Bockelmann, Sandrine Bony, Guy Brasseur, David N. Bresch, Sean Breyer, Gilbert Brunet, Pier Luigi Buttigieg, Junji Cao, Christelle Castet, Yafang Cheng, Ayantika Dey Choudhury, Deborah Coen, Susanne Crewell, Atish Dabholkar, Qing Dai, Francisco Doblas-Reyes, Dale Durran, Ayoub El Gaidi, Charlie Ewen, Eleftheria Exarchou, Veronika Eyring, Florencia Falkinhoff, David Farrell, Piers M. Forster, Ariane Frassoni, Claudia Frauen, Oliver Fuhrer, Shahzad Gani, Edwin Gerber, Debra Goldfarb, Jens Grieger, Nicolas Gruber, Wilco Hazeleger, Rolf Herken, Chris Hewitt, Torsten Hoefler, Huang-Hsiung Hsu, Daniela Jacob, Alexandra Jahn, Christian Jakob, Thomas Jung, Christopher Kadow, In-Sik Kang, Sarah Kang, Karthik Kashinath, Katharina Kleinen-von Königslöw, Daniel Klocke, Uta Kloenne, Milan Klöwer, Chihiro Kodama, Stefan Kollet, Tobias Kölling, Jenni Kontkanen, Steve Kopp, Michal Koran, Markku Kulmala, Hanna Lappalainen, Fakhria Latifi, Bryan Lawrence, June Yi Lee, Quentin Lejeun, Christian Lessig, Chao Li, Thomas Lippert, Jürg Luterbacher, Pekka Manninen, Jochem Marotzke, Satoshi Matsouoka, Charlotte Merchant, Peter Messmer, Gero Michel, Kristel Michielsen, Tomoki Miyakawa, Jens Müller, Ramsha Munir, Sandeep Narayanasetti, Ousmane Ndiaye, Carlos Nobre, Achim Oberg, Riko Oki, Tuba Özkan-Haller, Tim Palmer, Stan Posey, Andreas Prein, Odessa Primus, Mike Pritchard, Julie Pullen, Dian Putrasahan, Johannes Quaas, Krishnan Raghavan, Venkatachalam Ramaswamy, Markus Rapp, Florian Rauser, Markus Reichstein, Aromar Revi, Sonakshi Saluja, Masaki Satoh, Vera Schemann, Sebastian Schemm, Christina Schnadt Poberaj, Thomas Schulthess, Cath Senior, Jagadish Shukla, Manmeet Singh, Julia Slingo, Adam Sobel, Silvina Solman, Jenna Spitzer, Philip Stier, Thomas Stocker, Sarah Strock, Hang Su, Petteri Taalas, John Taylor, Susann Tegtmeier, Georg Teutsch, Adrian Tompkins, Uwe Ulbrich, Pier-Luigi Vidale, Chien-Ming Wu, Hao Xu, Najibullah Zaki, Laure Zanna, Tianjun Zhou, and Florian Ziemen
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 16, 2113–2122, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-2113-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-2113-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
To manage Earth in the Anthropocene, new tools, new institutions, and new forms of international cooperation will be required. Earth Virtualization Engines is proposed as an international federation of centers of excellence to empower all people to respond to the immense and urgent challenges posed by climate change.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Madlen Peter, Henning W. Rust, and Uwe Ulbrich
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1261–1285, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1261-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1261-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The paper introduces a statistical modeling approach describing daily extreme precipitation in Germany more accurately by including changes within the year and between the years simultaneously. The changing seasonality over years is regionally divergent and mainly weak. However, some regions stand out with a more pronounced linear rise of summer intensities, indicating a possible climate change signal. Improved modeling of extreme precipitation is beneficial for risk assessment and adaptation.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Rike Lorenz, Nico Becker, Barry Gardiner, Uwe Ulbrich, Marc Hanewinkel, and Schmitz Benjamin
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-120, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-120, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Tree fall events have an impact on forests and transport systems. Our study explored tree fall in relation to wind and weather conditions. We used tree fall data along railway lines and meteorological data from ERA5 and radar to build a logistic regression model. We found that high and prolonged wind speeds, wet conditions and high air density increase tree fall risk. These factors might change in the changing climate which in return will change risks for trees, forests and transport.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Katrin M. Nissen, Martina Wilde, Thomas M. Kreuzer, Annika Wohlers, Bodo Damm, and Uwe Ulbrich
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2737–2748, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2737-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2737-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The effect of climate change on rockfall probability in the German low mountain regions is investigated in observations and in 23 different climate scenario simulations. Under a pessimistic greenhouse gas scenario, the simulations suggest a decrease in rockfall probability. This reduction is mainly caused by a decrease in the number of freeze–thaw cycles due to higher atmospheric temperatures.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Johannes Riebold, Andy Richling, Uwe Ulbrich, Henning Rust, Tido Semmler, and Dörthe Handorf
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 663–682, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-663-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-663-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Arctic sea ice loss might impact the atmospheric circulation outside the Arctic and therefore extremes over mid-latitudes. Here, we analyze model experiments to initially assess the influence of sea ice loss on occurrence frequencies of large-scale circulation patterns. Some of these detected circulation changes can be linked to changes in occurrences of European temperature extremes. Compared to future global temperature increases, the sea-ice-related impacts are however of secondary relevance.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Edmund P. Meredith, Uwe Ulbrich, and Henning W. Rust
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 851–867, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-851-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-851-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Cell-tracking algorithms allow for the study of properties of a convective cell across its lifetime and, in particular, how these respond to climate change. We investigated whether the design of the algorithm can affect the magnitude of the climate-change signal. The algorithm's criteria for identifying a cell were found to have a strong impact on the warming response. The sensitivity of the warming response to different algorithm settings and cell types should thus be fully explored.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Katrin M. Nissen, Stefan Rupp, Thomas M. Kreuzer, Björn Guse, Bodo Damm, and Uwe Ulbrich
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2117–2130, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2117-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2117-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
A statistical model is introduced which quantifies the influence of individual potential triggering factors and their interactions on rockfall probability in central Europe. The most important factor is daily precipitation, which is most effective if sub-surface moisture levels are high. Freeze–thaw cycles in the preceding days can further increase the rockfall hazard. The model can be applied to climate simulations in order to investigate the effect of climate change on rockfall probability.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Michael Dietze, Rainer Bell, Ugur Ozturk, Kristen L. Cook, Christoff Andermann, Alexander R. Beer, Bodo Damm, Ana Lucia, Felix S. Fauer, Katrin M. Nissen, Tobias Sieg, and Annegret H. Thieken
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1845–1856, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1845-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1845-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The flood that hit Europe in July 2021, specifically the Eifel, Germany, was more than a lot of fast-flowing water. The heavy rain that fell during the 3 d before also caused the slope to fail, recruited tree trunks that clogged bridges, and routed debris across the landscape. Especially in the upper parts of the catchments the flood was able to gain momentum. Here, we discuss how different landscape elements interacted and highlight the challenges of holistic future flood anticipation.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Alexander Pasternack, Jens Grieger, Henning W. Rust, and Uwe Ulbrich
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 4335–4355, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-4335-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-4335-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Decadal climate ensemble forecasts are increasingly being used to guide adaptation measures. To ensure the applicability of these probabilistic predictions, inherent systematic errors of the prediction system must be adjusted. Since it is not clear which statistical model is optimal for this purpose, we propose a recalibration strategy with a systematic model selection based on non-homogeneous boosting for identifying the most relevant features for both ensemble mean and ensemble spread.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Uri Dayan, Itamar M. Lensky, Baruch Ziv, and Pavel Khain
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1583–1597, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1583-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1583-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
An intense rainstorm hit the Middle East between 24 and 27 April 2018. The storm reached its peak over Israel on 26 April when a heavy flash flood took the lives of 10 people. The rainfall was comparable to the long-term annual rainfall in the southern Negev. The timing was the end of the rainy season when rain is rare and spotty. The study analyses the dynamic and thermodynamic conditions that made this rainstorm one of the latest spring severe events in the region during the last 3 decades.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Nico Becker, Henning W. Rust, and Uwe Ulbrich
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2857–2871, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2857-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2857-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
A set of models is developed to forecast hourly probabilities of weather-related road accidents in Germany at the spatial scale of administrative districts. Model verification shows that using precipitation and temperature data leads to the best accident forecasts. Based on weather forecast data we show that skilful predictions of accident probabilities of up to 21 h ahead are possible. The models can be used to issue impact-based warnings, which are relevant for road users and authorities.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Mareike Schuster, Jens Grieger, Andy Richling, Thomas Schartner, Sebastian Illing, Christopher Kadow, Wolfgang A. Müller, Holger Pohlmann, Stephan Pfahl, and Uwe Ulbrich
Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 901–917, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-901-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-901-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Decadal climate predictions are valuable to society as they allow us to estimate climate conditions several years in advance. We analyze the latest version of the German MiKlip prediction system (https://www.fona-miklip.de) and assess the effect of the model resolution on the skill of the system. The increase in the resolution of the system reduces the bias and significantly improves the forecast skill for North Atlantic extratropical winter dynamics for lead times of two to five winters.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Robin Noyelle, Uwe Ulbrich, Nico Becker, and Edmund P. Meredith
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 941–955, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-941-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-941-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
This paper investigates the formation of the Mediterranean hurricane that developed between Balearic Islands and Sardinia in October 1996, with a particular focus on the influence of sea surface temperature. We show that increased sea surface temperatures lead to greater probabilities of appearance and a greater strength of the resulting hurricane, suggesting that the processes for Mediterranean hurricanes at steady state are very similar to tropical cyclones.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Edmund P. Meredith, Henning W. Rust, and Uwe Ulbrich
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 4183–4200, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-4183-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-4183-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Kilometre-scale climate-model data are of great benefit to both hydrologists and end users studying extreme precipitation, though often unavailable due to the computational expense associated with such high-resolution simulations. We develop a method which identifies days with enhanced risk of extreme rainfall over a catchment, so that high-resolution simulations can be performed only when such a risk exists, reducing computational expense by over 90 % while still well capturing the extremes.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Alexander Pasternack, Jonas Bhend, Mark A. Liniger, Henning W. Rust, Wolfgang A. Müller, and Uwe Ulbrich
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 351–368, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-351-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-351-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
We propose a decadal forecast recalibration strategy (DeFoReSt) which simultaneously adjusts unconditional and conditional bias, as well as the ensemble spread while considering the typical setting of decadal predictions, i.e., model drift and a climate trend. We apply DeFoReSt to decadal toy model data and surface temperature forecasts from the MiKlip system and find consistent improvements in forecast quality compared with a simple calibration of the lead-time-dependent systematic errors.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Christoph Ritschel, Uwe Ulbrich, Peter Névir, and Henning W. Rust
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 6501–6517, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-6501-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-6501-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
A stochastic model for precipitation is used to simulate an observed precipitation series; it is compared to the original series in terms of intensity–duration frequency curves. Basis for the latter curves is a parametric model for the duration dependence of the underlying extreme value model allowing a consistent estimation of one single duration-dependent distribution using all duration series simultaneously. The stochastic model reproduces the curves except for very rare extreme events.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Uri Dayan, Philippe Ricaud, Régina Zbinden, and François Dulac
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 13233–13263, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-13233-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-13233-2017, 2017
Katrin M. Nissen and Uwe Ulbrich
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 1177–1190, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-1177-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-1177-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
The effect of climate change on potentially infrastructure damaging heavy precipitation events in Europe is investigated. A novel technique records not only event frequency but also event size, duration and severity as these parameters determine the potential consequences of the event. Over most of Europe the frequency and size of heavy precipitation events is predicted to increase. Moreover, the most severe events are predicted for future periods.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Tobias Pardowitz, Robert Osinski, Tim Kruschke, and Uwe Ulbrich
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 2391–2402, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-2391-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-2391-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
This paper describes an approach to derive probabilistic predictions of local winter storm damage occurrences. Such predictions are subject to large uncertainty due to meteorological forecast uncertainty and uncertainties in modelling weather impacts. The paper aims to quantify these uncertainties and demonstrate that valuable predictions can be made on the district level several days ahead.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
R. Osinski, P. Lorenz, T. Kruschke, M. Voigt, U. Ulbrich, G. C. Leckebusch, E. Faust, T. Hofherr, and D. Majewski
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 255–268, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-255-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-255-2016, 2016
D. J. Befort, M. Fischer, G. C. Leckebusch, U. Ulbrich, A. Ganske, G. Rosenhagen, and H. Heinrich
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 1437–1447, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-1437-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-1437-2015, 2015
B. Merz, J. Aerts, K. Arnbjerg-Nielsen, M. Baldi, A. Becker, A. Bichet, G. Blöschl, L. M. Bouwer, A. Brauer, F. Cioffi, J. M. Delgado, M. Gocht, F. Guzzetti, S. Harrigan, K. Hirschboeck, C. Kilsby, W. Kron, H.-H. Kwon, U. Lall, R. Merz, K. Nissen, P. Salvatti, T. Swierczynski, U. Ulbrich, A. Viglione, P. J. Ward, M. Weiler, B. Wilhelm, and M. Nied
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 1921–1942, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-1921-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-1921-2014, 2014
Related subject area
Atmospheric, Meteorological and Climatological Hazards
The probabilistic skill of extended-range heat wave forecasts over Europe
An appraisal of the value of simulated weather data for quantifying coastal flood hazard in the Netherlands
Insights into thunderstorm characteristics from geostationary lightning jump and dive observations
The unique features in the 4 d widespread extreme rainfall event over North China in July 2023
Classifying extratropical cyclones and their impact on Finland's electricity grid: insights from 92 damaging windstorms
Evaluation of machine learning approaches for large-scale agricultural drought forecasts to improve monitoring and preparedness in Brazil
Soil moisture–atmosphere coupling strength over central Europe in the recent warming climate
A data-driven framework for assessing climatic impact drivers in the context of food security
Soil conditioner mixtures as an agricultural management alternative to mitigate drought impacts: a proof of concept
Compound winter low-wind and cold events impacting the French electricity system: observed evolution and role of large-scale circulation
Probabilistic hazard analysis of the gas emission of Mefite d'Ansanto, southern Italy
Are heavy-rainfall events a major trigger of associated natural hazards along the German rail network?
Brief communication: Forecasting extreme precipitation from atmospheric rivers in New Zealand
The record-breaking precipitation event of December 2022 in Portugal
Compound events in Germany in 2018: drivers and case studies
Assimilation of temperature and relative humidity observations from personal weather stations in AROME-France
The anomalously thundery month of June 1925 in southwest Spain: description and synoptic analysis
Spatial identification of regions exposed to multi-hazards at the pan-European level
Classification of North Atlantic and European extratropical cyclones using multiple measures of intensity
Subseasonal forecasts of heat waves in West African cities
Impacts on and damage to European forests from the 2018–2022 heat and drought events
Brief communication: Training of AI-based nowcasting models for rainfall early warning should take into account user requirements
Examining the Eastern European extreme summer temperatures of 2023 from a long-term perspective: the role of natural variability vs. anthropogenic factors
How well are hazards associated with derechos reproduced in regional climate simulations?
Is considering runs (in)consistency so useless for weather forecasting?
Reconstructing hail days in Switzerland with statistical models (1959–2022)
Exploring the interplay between observed warming, atmospheric circulation, and soil-atmosphere feedbacks on heatwaves in a temperate mountain region
High-Resolution Data Assimilation for Two Maritime Extreme Weather Events: A comparison between 3DVar and EnKF
Reask UTC: a machine learning modeling framework to generate climate connected tropical cyclone event sets globally
Historical changes in drought characteristics and its impact on vegetation cover over Madagascar
GTDI: a game-theory-based integrated drought index implying hazard-causing and hazard-bearing impact change
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Insurance loss model vs. meteorological loss index – how comparable are their loss estimates for European windstorms?
Invited perspectives: Thunderstorm Intensification from Mountains to Plains
Intense rains in Israel associated with the train effect
Review article: The growth in compound weather events research in the decade since SREX
Convection-permitting climate model representation of severe convective wind gusts and future changes in southeastern Australia
Impact-based temporal clustering of multiple meteorological hazard types in southwestern Germany
On the potential of using smartphone sensors for wildfire hazard estimation through citizen science
Global estimates of 100-year return values of daily precipitation from ensemble weather prediction data
Exploring the sensitivity of extreme event attribution of two recent extreme weather events in Sweden using long-running meteorological observations
Probabilistic short-range forecasts of high-precipitation events: optimal decision thresholds and predictability limits
Surprise floods: the role of our imagination in preparing for disasters
Modelling crop hail damage footprints with single-polarization radar: the roles of spatial resolution, hail intensity, and cropland density
Insights into ground strike point properties in Europe through the EUCLID lightning location system
The role of citizen science in assessing the spatiotemporal pattern of rainfall events in urban areas: a case study in the city of Genoa, Italy
Precipitation extremes in Ukraine from 1979 to 2019: climatology, large-scale flow conditions, and moisture sources
Characterizing hail-prone environments using convection-permitting reanalysis and overshooting top detections over south-central Europe
Aircraft engine dust ingestion at global airports
Catchment-scale assessment of drought impact on environmental flow in the Indus Basin, Pakistan
The risk of synoptic-scale Arctic cyclones to shipping
Natalia Korhonen, Otto Hyvärinen, Virpi Kollanus, Timo Lanki, Juha Jokisalo, Risto Kosonen, David S. Richardson, and Kirsti Jylhä
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1865–1879, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1865-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1865-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The skill of hindcasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts in forecasting heat wave days, defined as periods with the 5 d moving average temperature exceeding its local summer 90th percentile over Europe 1 to 4 weeks ahead, is examined. Forecasts of heat wave days show potential for warning of heat risk 1 to 2 weeks in advance and enhanced accuracy in forecasting prolonged heat waves up to 3 weeks ahead, when the heat wave had already begun before forecast issuance.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Cees de Valk and Henk van den Brink
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1769–1788, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1769-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1769-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Estimates of the risk posed by rare and catastrophic weather events are often derived from relatively short measurement records, which renders them highly uncertain. We investigate if (and by how much) this uncertainty can be reduced by making use of large datasets of simulated weather. More specifically, we focus on coastal flood hazard in the Netherlands and on the challenge of estimating the once in 10 million years coastal water level and wind stress as accurately as possible.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Felix Erdmann and Dieter Roel Poelman
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1751–1768, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1751-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1751-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This study provides detailed insight into the thunderstorm characteristics associated with abrupt changes in the lightning activity of a thunderstorm – lightning jumps (LJs) and lightning dives (LDs) – using geostationary satellite observations. Thunderstorms exhibiting one or multiple LJs or LDs feature characteristics similar to severe thunderstorms. Storms with multiple LJs contain strong convective updrafts and are prone to produce high rain rates, large hail, or tornadoes.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Jinfang Yin, Feng Li, Mingxin Li, Rudi Xia, Xinghua Bao, Jisong Sun, and Xudong Liang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1719–1735, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1719-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1719-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
A persistent severe rainfall event occurred over North China in July 2023, which was regarded as one of the most extreme episodes globally during that year. The extreme rainfall was significantly underestimated by forecasters at that time. Flooding from this event affected 1.3 million people, causing severe human casualties and economic losses. We examined the convective initiation and subsequent persistent heavy rainfall based on simulations with the Weather Research and Forecasting model.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Ilona Láng-Ritter, Terhi Kristiina Laurila, Antti Mäkelä, Hilppa Gregow, and Victoria Anne Sinclair
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1697–1717, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1697-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1697-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We present a classification method for extratropical cyclones and windstorms and show their impacts on Finland's electricity grid by analysing the 92 most damaging windstorms (2005–2018). The south-west- and north-west-arriving windstorms cause the most damage to the power grid. The most relevant parameters for damage are the wind gust speed and extent of wind gusts. Windstorms are more frequent and damaging in autumn and winter, but weaker wind speeds in summer also cause significant damage.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Joseph W. Gallear, Marcelo Valadares Galdos, Marcelo Zeri, and Andrew Hartley
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1521–1541, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1521-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1521-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
In Brazil, drought is of national concern and can have major consequences for agriculture. Here, we determine how to develop forecasts for drought stress on vegetation health using machine learning. Results aim to inform future developments in operational drought monitoring at the National Centre for Monitoring and Early Warning of Natural Disasters (CEMADEN) in Brazil. This information is essential for disaster preparedness and planning of future actions to support areas affected by drought.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Thomas Schwitalla, Lisa Jach, Volker Wulfmeyer, and Kirsten Warrach-Sagi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1405–1424, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1405-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1405-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
During recent decades, Europe has experienced increasing periods of severe drought and heatwave. To provide an overview of how land-surface conditions shape land–atmosphere (LA) coupling, the interannual LA coupling strength variability for the summer seasons of 1991–2022 is investigated by means of ERA5 data. The results clearly reflect ongoing climate change by a shift in the coupling relationships towards reinforced heating and drying by the land surface.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Marcos Roberto Benso, Roberto Fray Silva, Gabriela Chiquito Gesualdo, Antonio Mauro Saraiva, Alexandre Cláudio Botazzo Delbem, Patricia Angélica Alves Marques, José Antonio Marengo, and Eduardo Mario Mendiondo
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1387–1404, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1387-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1387-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This study applies climate extreme indices to assess climate risks to food security. Using an explainable machine learning analysis, key climate indices affecting maize and soybean yields in Brazil were identified. Results reveal the temporal sensitivity of these indices and critical yield loss thresholds, informing policy and adaptation strategies.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Juan F. Dueñas, Edda Kunze, Huiying Li, and Matthias C. Rillig
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1377–1386, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1377-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1377-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We investigated the potential of adding mixtures composed of minimum dosages of several popular amendment types to soil. Our goal was to increase the resistance of agricultural soil to drought stress. We found that adding mixtures of three to five amendment types increased the capacity of soil to retain water, reduced soil erosion, and increased fungal abundance while buffering soil from drastic changes in pH. More research is encouraged to validate this approach.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
François Collet, Margot Bador, Julien Boé, Laurent Dubus, and Bénédicte Jourdier
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 843–856, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-843-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-843-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Our aim is to characterize the observed evolution of compound winter low-wind and cold events impacting the French electricity system. The frequency of compound events exhibits a decrease over the 1950–2022 period, which is likely due to a decrease in cold days. Large-scale atmospheric circulation is an important driver of compound event occurrence and has likely contributed to the decrease in cold days, while we cannot draw conclusions on its influence on the decrease in compound events.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Fabio Dioguardi, Giovanni Chiodini, and Antonio Costa
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 657–674, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-657-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-657-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We present results of non-volcanic-gas (CO2) hazard assessment at the Mefite d’Ansanto area (Italy) where a cold-gas stream, which has already been lethal to humans and animals, forms in the valleys surrounding the emission zone. We took the uncertainty related to the gas emission and meteorological conditions into account. Results include maps of CO2 concentrations at defined probability levels and the probability of overcoming specified CO2 concentrations over specified time intervals.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Sonja Szymczak, Frederick Bott, Vigile Marie Fabella, and Katharina Fricke
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 683–707, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-683-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-683-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate the correlation between heavy-rainfall events and three associated natural hazards along the German rail network using GIS analyses and random-effects logistic models. The results show that 23 % of floods, 14 % of gravitational mass movements, and 2 % of tree fall events between 2017 and 2020 occurred after a heavy-rainfall event, and the probability of occurrence of flood and tree fall events significantly increased. This study contributes to more resilient rail transport.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Daniel G. Kingston, Liam Cooper, David A. Lavers, and David M. Hannah
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 675–682, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-675-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-675-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Extreme rainfall comprises a major hydrohazard for New Zealand and is commonly associated with atmospheric rivers – narrow plumes of very high atmospheric moisture transport. Here, we focus on improved forecasting of these events by testing a forecasting tool previously applied to similar situations in western Europe. However, our results for New Zealand suggest the performance of this forecasting tool may vary depending on geographical setting.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Tiago M. Ferreira, Ricardo M. Trigo, Tomás H. Gaspar, Joaquim G. Pinto, and Alexandre M. Ramos
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 609–623, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-609-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-609-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate the synoptic evolution associated with the occurrence of an atmospheric river that led to a 24 h record-breaking extreme precipitation event (120.3 mm) in Lisbon, Portugal, on 13 December 2022. The synoptic background allowed the formation, on 10 December, of an atmospheric river associated with a deep extratropical cyclone and with a high moisture content and an inflow of moisture, due to the warm conveyor belt, throughout its life cycle. The system made landfall on 12 December.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Elena Xoplaki, Florian Ellsäßer, Jens Grieger, Katrin M. Nissen, Joaquim G. Pinto, Markus Augenstein, Ting-Chen Chen, Hendrik Feldmann, Petra Friederichs, Daniel Gliksman, Laura Goulier, Karsten Haustein, Jens Heinke, Lisa Jach, Florian Knutzen, Stefan Kollet, Jürg Luterbacher, Niklas Luther, Susanna Mohr, Christoph Mudersbach, Christoph Müller, Efi Rousi, Felix Simon, Laura Suarez-Gutierrez, Svenja Szemkus, Sara M. Vallejo-Bernal, Odysseas Vlachopoulos, and Frederik Wolf
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 541–564, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-541-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-541-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Europe frequently experiences compound events, with major impacts. We investigate these events’ interactions, characteristics, and changes over time, focusing on socio-economic impacts in Germany and central Europe. Highlighting 2018’s extreme events, this study reveals impacts on water, agriculture, and forests and stresses the need for impact-focused definitions and better future risk quantification to support adaptation planning.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Alan Demortier, Marc Mandement, Vivien Pourret, and Olivier Caumont
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 429–449, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-429-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-429-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The use of numerical weather prediction models enables the forecasting of hazardous weather situations. The incorporation of new temperature and relative humidity observations from personal weather stations into the French limited-area model is evaluated in this study. This leads to the improvement of the associated near-surface variables of the model during the first hours of the forecast. Examples are provided for a sea breeze case during a heatwave and a fog episode.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Francisco Javier Acero, Manuel Antón, Alejandro Jesús Pérez Aparicio, Nieves Bravo-Paredes, Víctor Manuel Sánchez Carrasco, María Cruz Gallego, José Agustín García, Marcelino Núñez, Irene Tovar, Javier Vaquero-Martínez, and José Manuel Vaquero
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 305–320, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-305-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-305-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The month of June 1925 was found to be exceptional in the southwest interior of the Iberian Peninsula due to the large number of thunderstorms and their significant impacts, with serious losses of human lives and material resources. We analyzed this event from different, complementary perspectives: reconstruction of the history of the events from newspapers, study of monthly meteorological variables of the longest series available, and the analysis of the meteorological synoptic situation.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Tiberiu-Eugen Antofie, Stefano Luoni, Aloïs Tilloy, Andrea Sibilia, Sandro Salari, Gustav Eklund, Davide Rodomonti, Christos Bountzouklis, and Christina Corbane
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 287–304, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-287-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-287-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This is the first study that uses spatial patterns (clusters/hotspots) and meta-analysis in order to identify the regions at a European level at risk of multi-hazards. The findings point out the socioeconomic dimension as a determining factor in the potential risk of multi-hazards. The outcome provides valuable input for the disaster risk management policy support and will assist national authorities on the implementation of a multi-hazard approach in national risk assessment preparation.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Joona Cornér, Clément Bouvier, Benjamin Doiteau, Florian Pantillon, and Victoria A. Sinclair
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 207–229, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-207-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-207-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Classification reduces the considerable variability between extratropical cyclones (ETCs) and thus simplifies studying their representation in climate models and changes in the future climate. In this paper we present an objective classification of ETCs using measures of ETC intensity. This is motivated by the aim of finding a set of ETC intensity measures which together comprehensively describe both the dynamical and impact-relevant nature of ETC intensity.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Cedric G. Ngoungue Langue, Christophe Lavaysse, and Cyrille Flamant
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 147–168, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-147-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-147-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The present study addresses the predictability of heat waves at subseasonal timescales in West African cities over the period 2001–2020. Two models, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and the UK Met Office models, were evaluated using two reanalyses: ERA5 and MERRA. The results suggest that at subseasonal timescales, the forecast models provide a better forecast than climatology, but the hit rate and false alarm rate are sub-optimal.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Florian Knutzen, Paul Averbeck, Caterina Barrasso, Laurens M. Bouwer, Barry Gardiner, José M. Grünzweig, Sabine Hänel, Karsten Haustein, Marius Rohde Johannessen, Stefan Kollet, Mortimer M. Müller, Joni-Pekka Pietikäinen, Karolina Pietras-Couffignal, Joaquim G. Pinto, Diana Rechid, Efi Rousi, Ana Russo, Laura Suarez-Gutierrez, Sarah Veit, Julian Wendler, Elena Xoplaki, and Daniel Gliksman
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 77–117, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-77-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-77-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Our research, involving 22 European scientists, investigated drought and heat impacts on forests in 2018–2022. Findings reveal that climate extremes are intensifying, with central Europe being most severely impacted. The southern region showed resilience due to historical drought exposure, while northern and Alpine areas experienced emerging or minimal impacts. The study highlights the need for region-specific strategies, improved data collection, and sustainable practices to safeguard forests.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Georgy Ayzel and Maik Heistermann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 41–47, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-41-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-41-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Forecasting rainfall over the next hour is an essential feature of early warning systems. Deep learning (DL) has emerged as a powerful alternative to conventional nowcasting technologies, but it still struggles to adequately predict impact-relevant heavy rainfall. We think that DL could do much better if the training tasks were defined more specifically and that such specification presents an opportunity to better align the output of nowcasting models with actual user requirements.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Monica Ionita, Petru Vaideanu, Bogdan Antonescu, Catalin Roibu, Qiyun Ma, and Viorica Nagavciuc
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4683–4706, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4683-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4683-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Eastern Europe's heat wave history is explored from 1885 to 2023, with a focus on pre-1960 events. The study reveals two periods with more frequent and intense heat waves (HWs): 1920s–1960s and 1980s–present. The research highlights the importance of a long-term perspective, revealing that extreme heat events have occurred throughout the entire study period, and it emphasizes the combined influence of climate change and natural variations on increasing HW severity.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Tristan Shepherd, Frederick Letson, Rebecca J. Barthelmie, and Sara C. Pryor
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4473–4505, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4473-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4473-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
A historic derecho in the USA is presented. The 29 June 2012 derecho caused more than 20 deaths and millions of US dollars of damage. We use a regional climate model to understand how model fidelity changes under different initial conditions. We find changes drive different convective conditions, resulting in large variation in the simulated hazards. The variation using different reanalysis data shows that framing these results in the context of contemporary and future climate is a challenge.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Hugo Marchal, François Bouttier, and Olivier Nuissier
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-208, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-208, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
This paper investigates the relationship between changes in weather forecasts and predictability, which has so far been considered weak. By focusing on the persistence of weather scenarios over successive forecasts, we found that it significantly affects the reliability of forecasts.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Lena Wilhelm, Cornelia Schwierz, Katharina Schröer, Mateusz Taszarek, and Olivia Martius
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3869–3894, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3869-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3869-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In our study we used statistical models to reconstruct past hail days in Switzerland from 1959–2022. This new time series reveals a significant increase in hail day occurrences over the last 7 decades. We link this trend to increases in moisture and instability variables in the models. This time series can now be used to unravel the complexities of Swiss hail occurrence and to understand what drives its year-to-year variability.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Marc Lemus-Canovas, Sergi Gonzalez-Herrero, Laura Trapero, Anna Albalat, Damian Insua-Costa, Martin Senande-Rivera, and Gonzalo Miguez-Macho
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-192, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-192, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
This study explores the 2022 heatwaves in the Pyrenees, examining the factors that contributed to their intensity and distribution. The June event was driven by strong winds that created uneven temperature patterns, while the July heatwave featured calmer conditions and more uniform temperatures. Human-driven climate change has made these heatwaves more severe compared to the past. This research helps us better understand how climate change affects extreme weather in mountainous regions.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Diego Saúl Carrió, Vincenzo Mazzarella, and Rossella Ferretti
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-177, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-177, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
Populated coastal regions in the Mediterranean are known to be severely affected by extreme weather events that are initiated over maritime regions. These weather events are known to pose a serious problem in terms of numerical predictability. Different Data Assimilation techniques are used in this study with the main aim of enhancing short-range forecasts of two challenging severe weather events.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Thomas Loridan and Nicolas Bruneau
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3253, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3253, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Tropical Cyclone (TC) risk models have been used by the insurance industry to quantify occurrence and severity risk since the 90s. To date these models are mostly built from backward looking statistics and portray risk under a static view of the climate. We here introduce a novel approach, based on machine learning, that allows sampling of climate variability when assessing TC risk globally. This is of particular importance when computing forward looking views of TC risk.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Herijaona Hani-Roge Hundilida Randriatsara, Eva Holtanova, Karim Rizwan, Hassen Babaousmail, Mirindra Finaritra Tanteliniaina Rabezanahary, Kokou Romaric Posset, Donnata Alupot, and Brian Odhiambo Ayugi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-191, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-191, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
This study aims to analyze the spatiotemporal characteristics of drought (duration, frequency, severity, intensity) over Madagascar during 1981–2022 by using Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI-3, -6 and -12). Additionally, the impact of drought on vegetation over the studied area was assessed based on the relationship evaluation between SPI and the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) during 2000–2022.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Xiaowei Zhao, Tianzeng Yang, Hongbo Zhang, Tian Lan, Chaowei Xue, Tongfang Li, Zhaoxia Ye, Zhifang Yang, and Yurou Zhang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3479–3495, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3479-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3479-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
To effectively track and identify droughts, we developed a novel integrated drought index that combines the effects of precipitation, temperature, and soil moisture on drought. After comparison and verification, the integrated drought index shows superior performance compared to a single meteorological drought index or agricultural drought index in terms of drought identification.
Julia Moemken, Inovasita Alifdini, Alexandre M. Ramos, Alexandros Georgiadis, Aidan Brocklehurst, Lukas Braun, and Joaquim G. Pinto
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3445–3460, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3445-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3445-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
European windstorms regularly cause damage to natural and human-made environments, leading to high socio-economic losses. For the first time, we compare estimates of these losses using a meteorological loss index (LI) and the insurance loss (catastrophe) model of Aon Impact Forecasting. We find that LI underestimates high-impact windstorms compared to the insurance model. Nonetheless, due to its simplicity, LI is an effective index, suitable for estimating impacts and ranking storm events.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Jannick Fischer, Pieter Groenemeijer, Alois Holzer, Monika Feldmann, Katharina Schröer, Francesco Battaglioli, Lisa Schielicke, Tomáš Púčik, Christoph Gatzen, Bogdan Antonescu, and the TIM Partners
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2798, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2798, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Strong thunderstorms have been studied mainly over flat terrain and in computer simulations in the past. However, they are particularly frequent near mountain ranges, which emphasizes the need to study storms near mountains. This article gives an overview about our existing knowledge on this topic and presents plans for a large European field campaign with the goals to fill these knowledge gaps, validate tools for thunderstorm warnings, and improve numerical weather prediction near mountains.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Baruch Ziv, Uri Dayan, Lidiya Shendrik, and Elyakom Vadislavsky
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3267–3277, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3267-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3267-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The train effect is related to convective cells that pass over the same place. Trains produce heavy rainfall and sometimes floods and are reported in North America during spring and summer. In Israel, 17 trains associated with Cyprus lows were identified by radar images and were found within the cold sector south of the low center and in the left flank of a maximum wind belt; they cross the Israeli coast, with a mean length of 45 km; last 1–3 h; and yield 35 mm of rainfall up to 60 mm.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Lou Brett, Christopher J. White, Daniela I.V. Domeisen, Bart van den Hurk, Philip Ward, and Jakob Zscheischler
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-182, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-182, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
Compound events, where multiple weather or climate hazards occur together, pose significant risks to both society and the environment. These events, like simultaneous wind and rain, can have more severe impacts than single hazards. Our review of compound event research from 2012–2022 reveals a rise in studies, especially on events that occur concurrently, hot and dry events and compounding flooding. The review also highlights opportunities for research in the coming years.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Andrew Brown, Andrew Dowdy, and Todd P. Lane
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3225–3243, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3225-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3225-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
A computer model that simulates the climate of southeastern Australia is shown here to represent extreme wind events associated with convective storms. This is useful as it allows us to investigate possible future changes in the occurrences of these events, and we find in the year 2050 that our model simulates a decrease in the number of occurrences. However, the model also simulates too many events in the historical climate compared with observations, so these future changes are uncertain.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Katharina Küpfer, Alexandre Tuel, and Michael Kunz
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2803, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2803, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Using loss data, we assess when and how single and multiple types of meteorological extremes (river floods and heavy rainfall events, windstorms and convective gusts, and hail). We find that the combination of several types of hazards clusters robustly on a seasonal scale, whereas only some single hazard types occur in clusters. This can be associated with higher losses compared to isolated events. We argue for the relevance of jointly considering multiple types of hazards.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Hofit Shachaf, Colin Price, Dorita Rostkier-Edelstein, and Cliff Mass
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3035–3047, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3035-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3035-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We have used the temperature and relative humidity sensors in smartphones to estimate the vapor pressure deficit (VPD), an important atmospheric parameter closely linked to fuel moisture and wildfire risk. Our analysis for two severe wildfire case studies in Israel and Portugal shows the potential for using smartphone data to compliment the regular weather station network while also providing high spatial resolution of the VPD index.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Florian Ruff and Stephan Pfahl
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2939–2952, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2939-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2939-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
High-impact river floods are often caused by extreme precipitation. Flood protection relies on reliable estimates of the return values. Observational time series are too short for a precise calculation. Here, 100-year return values of daily precipitation are estimated on a global grid based on a large set of model-generated precipitation events from ensemble weather prediction. The statistical uncertainties in the return values can be substantially reduced compared to observational estimates.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Erik Holmgren and Erik Kjellström
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2875–2893, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2875-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2875-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Associating extreme weather events with changes in the climate remains difficult. We have explored two ways these relationships can be investigated: one using a more common method and one relying solely on long-running records of meteorological observations.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Our results show that while both methods lead to similar conclusions for two recent weather events in Sweden, the commonly used method risks underestimating the strength of the connection between the event and changes to the climate.
François Bouttier and Hugo Marchal
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2793–2816, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2793-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2793-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Weather prediction uncertainties can be described as sets of possible scenarios – a technique called ensemble prediction. Our machine learning technique translates them into more easily interpretable scenarios for various users, balancing the detection of high precipitation with false alarms. Key parameters are precipitation intensity and space and time scales of interest. We show that the approach can be used to facilitate warnings of extreme precipitation.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Joy Ommer, Jessica Neumann, Milan Kalas, Sophie Blackburn, and Hannah L. Cloke
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2633–2646, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2633-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2633-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
What’s the worst that could happen? Recent floods are often claimed to be beyond our imagination. Imagination is the picturing of a situation in our mind and the emotions that we connect with this situation. But why is this important for disasters? This survey found that when we cannot imagine a devastating flood, we are not preparing in advance. Severe-weather forecasts and warnings need to advance in order to trigger our imagination of what might happen and enable us to start preparing.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Raphael Portmann, Timo Schmid, Leonie Villiger, David N. Bresch, and Pierluigi Calanca
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2541–2558, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2541-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2541-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The study presents an open-source model to determine the occurrence of hail damage to field crops and grapevines after hailstorms in Switzerland based on radar, agricultural land use data, and insurance damage reports. The model performs best at 8 km resolution for field crops and 1 km for grapevine and in the main production areas. Highlighting performance trade-offs and the relevance of user needs, the study is a first step towards the assessment of risk and damage for crops in Switzerland.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Dieter Roel Poelman, Hannes Kohlmann, and Wolfgang Schulz
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2511–2522, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2511-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2511-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
EUCLID's lightning data unveil distinctive ground strike point (GSP) patterns in Europe. Over seas, GSPs per flash surpass inland, reaching a minimum in the Alps. Mountainous areas like the Alps and Pyrenees have the closest GSP separation, highlighting terrain elevation's impact. The daily peak current correlates with average GSPs per flash. These findings could significantly influence lightning protection measures, urging a focus on GSP density rather than flash density for risk assessment.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Nicola Loglisci, Giorgio Boni, Arianna Cauteruccio, Francesco Faccini, Massimo Milelli, Guido Paliaga, and Antonio Parodi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2495–2510, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2495-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2495-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We analyse the meteo-hydrological features of the 27 and 28 August 2023 event that occurred in Genoa. Rainfall observations were made using rain gauge networks based on either official networks or citizen science networks. The merged analysis stresses the spatial variability in the precipitation, which cannot be captured by the current spatial density of authoritative stations. Results show that at minimal distances the variations in cumulated rainfall over a sub-hourly duration are significant.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Ellina Agayar, Franziska Aemisegger, Moshe Armon, Alexander Scherrmann, and Heini Wernli
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2441–2459, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2441-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2441-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study presents the results of a climatological investigation of extreme precipitation events (EPEs) in Ukraine for the period 1979–2019. During all seasons EPEs are associated with pronounced upper-level potential vorticity (PV) anomalies. In addition, we find distinct seasonal and regional differences in moisture sources. Several extreme precipitation cases demonstrate the importance of these processes, complemented by a detailed synoptic analysis.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Antonio Giordani, Michael Kunz, Kristopher M. Bedka, Heinz Jürgen Punge, Tiziana Paccagnella, Valentina Pavan, Ines M. L. Cerenzia, and Silvana Di Sabatino
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2331–2357, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2331-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2331-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
To improve the challenging representation of hazardous hailstorms, a proxy for hail frequency based on satellite detections, convective parameters from high-resolution reanalysis, and crowd-sourced reports is tested and presented. Hail likelihood peaks in mid-summer at 15:00 UTC over northern Italy and shows improved agreement with observations compared to previous estimates. By separating ambient signatures based on hail severity, enhanced appropriateness for large-hail occurrence is found.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Claire L. Ryder, Clément Bézier, Helen F. Dacre, Rory Clarkson, Vassilis Amiridis, Eleni Marinou, Emmanouil Proestakis, Zak Kipling, Angela Benedetti, Mark Parrington, Samuel Rémy, and Mark Vaughan
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2263–2284, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2263-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2263-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Desert dust poses a hazard to aircraft via degradation of engine components. This has financial implications for the aviation industry and results in increased fuel burn with climate impacts. Here we quantify dust ingestion by aircraft engines at airports worldwide. We find Dubai and Delhi in summer are among the dustiest airports, where substantial engine degradation would occur after 1000 flights. Dust ingestion can be reduced by changing take-off times and the altitude of holding patterns.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Khalil Ur Rahman, Songhao Shang, Khaled Saeed Balkhair, Hamza Farooq Gabriel, Khan Zaib Jadoon, and Kifayat Zaman
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2191–2214, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2191-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2191-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This paper assesses the impact of drought (meteorological drought) on the hydrological alterations in major rivers of the Indus Basin. Threshold regression and range of variability analysis are used to determine the drought severity and times where drought has caused low flows and extreme low flows (identified using indicators of hydrological alterations). Moreover, this study also examines the degree of alterations in river flows due to drought using the hydrological alteration factor.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Alexander Frank Vessey, Kevin I. Hodges, Len C. Shaffrey, and Jonathan J. Day
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2115–2132, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2115-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2115-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The risk posed to ships by Arctic cyclones has seldom been quantified due to the lack of publicly available historical Arctic ship track data. This study investigates historical Arctic ship tracks, cyclone tracks, and shipping incident reports to determine the number of shipping incidents caused by the passage of Arctic cyclones. Results suggest that Arctic cyclones have not been hazardous to ships and that ships are resilient to the rough sea conditions caused by Arctic cyclones.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Cited articles
Alhammoud, B., Claud, C., Funatsu, B. M., Beranger, K., and Chaboureau, J. P.: Patterns of Precipitation and Convection Occurrence over the Mediterranean Basin Derived from a Decade of Microwave Satellite Observations, Atmosphere, 5, 370–398, https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos5020370, 2014.
Alpert, P. and Neeman, B. U.: Cold small-scale cyclones over the Eastern Mediterranean, Tellus, 44A, 173–179, 1992.
Alpert, P. and Ziv, B.: The Sharav cyclone: observations and some theoretical considerations, J. Geophys. Res., 94, 18495–18514, 1989.
Alpert, P., Neeman, B. U., and Shay-El, Y.: Climatological analysis of Mediterranean cyclones using ECMWF data, Tellus, 42A, 65–77, 1990a.
Alpert, P., Neeman, B. U., and Shay-El, Y.: Intermonthly variability of cyclone tracks in the Mediterranean, J. Climate, 3, 1474–1478, 1990b.
Alpert, P., Ben-Gai, T., Baharad, A., Benjamini, Y., Yekutieli, D., Colacino, M., Diodato, L., Ramis, C., Homar, V., Romero, R., Michaelides, S., and Manes, A.: The paradoxical increase of Mediterranean extreme daily rainfall in spite of decrease in total values, Geophys. Res. Lett., 29, 31-1–31-4, 2002.
Argence, S., Lambert, D., Richard, E., Chaboureau, J.-P., and Söhne, N.: Impact of initial condition uncertainties on the predictability of heavy rainfall in the Mediterranean: a case study, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 134, 1775–1788, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.314, 2008.
Barbi, A., Monai, M., Racca, R., and Rossa, A. M.: Recurring features of extreme autumnall rainfall events on the Veneto coastal area, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 12, 2463–2477, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-12-2463-2012, 2012.
Barnston, A. and Livezey, R. E.: Classification, seasonality and persistence of low frequency circulation patterns, Mon. Weather Rev., 115, 1083-1126, 1987.
Brandimarte, L., Di Baldassarre, G., Bruni, D'Odorico, P., and Montanari, A.: Relation between the North-Atlantic Oscillation and Hydroclimatic Conditions in Mediterranean Areas, Water Resour Manage 25, 1269–1279, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-010-9742-5, 2011.
Buzzi, A., Tartaglione, N., and Malguzzi, P.: Numerical simulation of the 1994 Piedmont Flood: Role of orography and moist processes, Mon. Weather Rev., 126, 2369–2383, 1998.
Campins, J., Genoves, A., Picornell, M. A., and Jansa, A.: Climatology of Mediterranean cyclones using the ERA-40 dataset, Int. J. Climatol., 31, 1596–1614, 2011.
Cavicchia, L., von Storch, H., and Gualdi, S.: Mediterranean tropical-like cyclones in present and future climate. J. Climate, 27, 7493–7501, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00339.1, 2014.
Claud, C., Alhammoud, B., Funatsu, B. M., Lebeaupin Brossier, C., Chaboureau, J.-P., Béranger, K., and Drobinski, P.: A high resolution climatology of precipitation and deep convection over the Mediterranean region from operational satellite microwave data: development and application to the evaluation of model uncertainties, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 12, 785–798, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-12-785-2012, 2012.
Colby, F. P.: Convective inhibition as a predictive of convection during AVE-SESAME II, Mon. Weather Rev., 112, 2239–2252, 1984.
Conté, M., Giuffrida, A., and Tedesco, S.: The Mediterranean oscillation-Impact on precipitation and hydrology in Italy. Conference on: Climate and Water, Publications of the Academy of Finland, Helsinki, 11–15 September 1989, 121–137, 1989.
Cullen, H. M. and deMenocal, P. B.: North Atlantic influence on Tigris-Euphrates streamflow, Int J. Climatol., 20, 853–863, 2000.
Dayan, U. and Morin, E.: Flash Flood-Producing rainstorms over the Dead Sea, Israel: A Review, in Enzel, Y., Agnon, A., and Stein, M., eds., New Frontiers in Dead Sea paleoenvironmental research: Geological Society of America Special Paper 401, https://doi.org/10.1130/2006/2401(04), 2006.
Dayan U. and Rodnizki, J.: The temporal behavior of the atmospheric boundary layer in Israel. J. Appl. Meteorol., 38, 830–836, 1999.
Dayan, U. and Sharon, D.: Meteorological parameters for discriminating between widespread and spotty storms in the Negev. Israel J. Earth Sci., 29, 253–256, 1980.
Dayan, U. and Abramski, R.: Heavy rain in the Middle-East related to unusual jet stream properties. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 64, 1138–1140, 1983.
Dayan, U., Ziv, B., Margalit, A., Morin, E., and Sharon, D.: A severe autumn storm over the Middle-East: Synoptic and Mesoscale convection, Theor. Appl. Climatol., 69, 103–122, 2001.
Dayan, U., Lifshitz-Goldreich, B., and Pick, K.: Spatial and structural variation of the atmospheric boundary layer during summer in Israel-Profiler and Rawinsonde measurements, J. Appl. Meteorol., 41, 447–457, 2002.
Delrieu, G., Nicol, J., Yates, E., Kirstetter, P. E., Creutin, J. D., Anquetin, S., Obled, C., Saulnier, G. M., Ducrocq, V., Gaume, E., Payrastre, O., Andrieu, H., Ayral, P. A., Bouvier, C., Neppel, L., Livet, M., Lang, M., Parent du-Châtelet, J., Walpersdorf, A., and Wobrock, W.: The catastrophic flash-flood event of 8–9 September 2002 in the Gard Region, France: A first case study for the Cevennes–Vivarais Mediterranean Hydrometeorological Observatory, J. Hydrometeor., 6, 34–52, 2005.
De Zolt S., Lionello, P., Nuhu, A., and Tomasin, A.: The disastrous storm of November 1966 on Italy, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 6, 861–879, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-6-861-2006, 2006.
Doswell III, C. A.: The distinction between large-scale and mesoscale contribution to severe convection: A case study example, Weather Forecast., 2, 3–16, 1987.
Doswell III, C. A., Ramis, C., Romero R., and Alonso, S.: A diagnostic study of three precipitation episodes in the western Mediterranean region, Weather Forecast., 13, 102–124, 1998.
Drumond, A., Nieto, R., Hernandez, E., and Gimeno, L.: A Lagrangian analysis of the variation in moisture sources related to drier and wetter conditions in regions around the Mediterranean Basin, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 11, 2307–2320, 2011.
Ducić, V., Luković , J., Burić, D., . Stanojević, G., and Mustafić, S.: Precipitation extremes in the wettest Mediterranean region (Krivosije) and associated atmospheric circulation types, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 12, 687–697, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-12-687-2012, 2012.
Ducrocq, V., Nuissier, O., Ricard, D., Lebeaupin, C., and Thouvenin, T.: A numerical study of three catastrophic precipitating events over southern France. Part II: Mesoscale triggering and stationarity factors, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 134, 131–145, 2008.
Duffourg, F. and Ducrocq, V.: Origin of the moisture feeding the Heavy Precipitating Systems over Southeastern France, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 11, 1163–1178, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-11-1163-2011, 2011.
Egger, J., Alpert, P., Taffner, A., and Ziv, B.: Numerical experiments on the genesis of Sharav cyclones: idealized simulations, Tellus, 47A, 162–174, 1995.
Eshel, G. and Farrell, B. F.: Mechanisms of Eastern Mediterranean rainfall variability, J. Atmos. Sci., 57, 3219–3232, 2000.
Feldstein, S. and Dayan, U.: Circumglobal teleconnections and wave packets associated with Eastern Mediterranean precipitation, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 134, 455–467, 2008.
Fernández, C., Gaertner, M. A., Gallardo, C., and Castro, M.: Simulation of a long-lived meso-beta scale convective system over the Mediterranean coast of Spain. Part II: Sensitivity to external forcings, Meteor. Atmos. Phys., 62, 179–200, 1997.
Fernández-Montes, S., Seubert, S., Rodrigo, F. S., Rasilla Álvarez, D. F., Hertig, E., Esteban, P., and Philipp, A.: Circulation types and extreme precipitation days in the Iberian Peninsula in the transition seasons: Spatial links and temporal changes, Atmos. Res., 138, 41–58, 2014.
Fiori, E., Comellas, A., Molini, L., Rebora, N., Siccardi, F., Gochis, D.J., Tanelli, S., and Parodi, A.: Analysis and hindcast simulations of an extreme rainfall event in the Mediterranean area: The Genoa 2011 case, Atmos. Res. 138, 13–29, 2014.
Flocas, H. A., Simmonds, I., Kouroutzoglou, J., Keay, K., Hatzaki, M., Bricolas, V., and Asimakopoulos, D.: On cyclonic tracks over the Eastern Mediterranean, J. Climate, 23, 5243–5257, 2010.
Fröhlich, L., Knippertz, P., Fink, A. H., and Hohberger, E.: An objective climatology of Tropical Plumes, J. Clim., 26, 5044–5060, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00351.1, 2013.
Fuelberg, H. E. and Biggar, D. G.,: The preconvective environment of summer thunderstorms over the Florida Panhandle, Weather Forecast., 9, 316–326, 1994.
Funatsu, B. M., Claud, C., and Chaboureau, J.-P.: Two case studies of severe storms in the Mediterranean using AMSU, Adv. Geosci., 12, 19–26, 2007a.
Funatsu, B. M., Claud, C., and Chaboureau, J.-P.: Potential of Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit to identify precipitating systems and associated upper-level features in the Mediterranean region: Case studies, J. Geophys. Res., 112, D17113, https://doi.org/10.1029/2006JD008297, 2007b.
Funatsu, B. M., Claud, C., and Chaboureau, J. P.: Comparison between the large- scale environments of moderate and intense precipitation systems in the Mediterranean region, Mon. Weather Rev., 137, 3933–3959, 2009.
Goldreich, Y.: The Climate of Israel: Observation, Research and Application. Springer: Israel, Kluwer Academic/Plenum Publishers: Netherlands, p. 298, 2003.
Gomez-Hernandez, M., Drumond, A., Gimeno, L., and Garcia-Herrera, R.: Variability of moisture sources in the Mediterranean region during the period 1980–2000, Water Resour. Res., 49, 6781–6794, https://doi.org/10.1002/wrcr.20538, 2013.
Goodess, C. M. and Jones, P. D.: Links between circulation and changes in the characteristics of Iberian rainfall, Int J. Climatol., 22, 1593–1615, 2002.
Harats, N., Ziv, B., Yair, Y., Kotroni, V., and Dayan, U.: Lightning and rain dynamic indices as predictors for flash-floods events in the Mediterranean, Adv. Geosci., 23, 57–64, 2010.
Haylock, M. R., Hofstra, N., Klein Tank, A. M. G., Klok, E. J., Jones, P. D., and New, M.: A European daily high-resolution gridded dataset of surface temperature and precipitation for 1950–2006, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 113, D20119, https://doi.org/10.1029/2008JD10201, 2008.
Hertig, E., Seubert, S., Paxian, A., Vogt, G., Paeth, H., and Jacobeit, J.: Statistical modelling of extreme precipitation indices for the Mediterranean area under future climate change, Int. J. Climatol., 34, 1132–1156, 2014.
HMSO: Weather in the Mediterranean I: General Meteorology. 2d Ed. Her Majesty's Stationery Office, 362 pp., 1962.
Homar, V. and Stensrud, D. J.: Sensitivities of an intense Mediterranean cyclone: Analysis and validation, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 130, 2519–2540, 2004.
Horvath, K., Fita, L., Romero, R., Ivancan-Picek, B., and Stiperski, I.: Cyclogenesis in the lee of the Atlas Mountains: a factor separation numerical study, Adv. Geosci., 7, 327–331, https://doi.org/10.5194/adgeo-7-327-2006, 2006.
Hoskins, B. J. and Hodges, K. I.: New perspectives on the Northern Hemisphere winter storm tracks, J. Atmos. Sci., 59, 1041–1061, 2002.
Hurrell, J. W., Kushnir, Y., Ottersen, G., and Visbeck, M.: An Overview of the North Atlantic Oscillation, in The North Atlantic Oscillation: Climatic Significance and Environmental Impact, edited by: Hurrell, J. W., Kushnir, Y., Ottersen, G., and Visbeck, M., American Geophysical Union, Washington, D.C., Geophysical Monograph Series, Vol. 134, American Geophysical Union, 1–35, https://doi.org/10.1029/134GM01, 2003.
Jacobeit, J.: Variations of trough positions and precipitation patterns in the Mediterranean area, J. Climatol., 7, 453–476, 1987.
Jacovides, C. P. and Yonetani, T.: An evaluation of stability indices for thunderstorm prediction in Greater Cyprus, Weather Forecast., 5, 559–569, 1990.
Jansa, A., Genoves, A., and Garcia-Moya, J. A.: Western Mediterranean cyclones and heavy rain. Part 1: Numerical experiment concerning the Piedmont flood case, Meteorol. Appl. 7, 323–333, 2000.
Jansa, A., Genoves, A., Picornell, M. A., Campins, J., Riosalido, R., and Carretero, O.: Western Mediterranean cyclones and heavy rain, Part 2: Statistical approach, Meteorol. Appl., 8, 43–56, 2001.
Jansa, A., Alpert, P., Arbogast, P., Buzzi, A., Ivancan-Picek, B., Kotroni, V., Llasat, M. C., Ramis, C., Richard, E., Romero, R., and Speranza, A.: MEDEX: a general overview, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 1965–1984, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-1965-2014, 2014.
Kahana, R., Ziv, B., Enzel, Y., and Dayan, U.: Synoptic climatology of major floods in the Negev Desert, Israel, Int J. Climatol., 22, 867–882, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.766, 2002.
Kahana, R., Ziv, B., Dayan, U., and Enzel, Y.: Atmospheric predictors for major floods in the Negev Desert, Israel, Int J. Climatol., 24, 1137–1147, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.1056, 2004.
Kelley, C., Ting, MF. Seager, R., and Kushnir, Y.: Mediterranean precipitation climatology, seasonal cycle, and trend as simulated by CMIP5, Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L21703, https://doi.org/10.1029/2012GL053416, 2012.
Kenyon, J. and Hegerl, G. C.: Influence of modes of climate variability on global precipitation extremes, J. Climate, 23, 6248–6262, https://doi.org/10.1175/2010JCLI3617.1, 2010.
Knippertz, P. and Martin, J. E.: Tropical plumes and extreme precipitation in subtropical and tropical West Africa, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 131, 2337–2365, 2005.
Knippertz, P.: Tropical-extratropical interactions related to upper level troughs at low latitudes, Dynam. Atmos. Oceans, 43, 36–62, 2007.
Knippertz, P. and Wernli, H.: A Lagrangian climatology of tropical moisture exports to the Northern Hemispheric extratropics, J. Clim. 23, 987–1003, https://doi.org/10.1175/2009JCLI3333.1, 2010.
Korologou, M., Flocas, H., and Michalopoulou, H.: Developing an index for heavy convective rainfall forecasting over a Mediterranean coastal area, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 2205–2214, 2014.
Kotroni, V., Lagouvardos, K., Defer, E. Dietrich, S. Porcu, F. Medaglia, C. M., and Demirtas, M.: The Antalya 5 December 2002 storm: Observations and model analysis, J. Appl. Meteor. Climatol., 45, 576–590, 2006.
Krichak, S. O. and Alpert, P.: Role of large-scale moist dynamics in November 1–5, 1994, hazardous Mediterranean weather, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 103, 19453–19468, 1998.
Krichak, S. O. and Alpert, P.: Decadal trends in the east Atlantic–west Russia pattern and Mediterranean precipitation, Int. J. Climatol., 25, 183–192, 2005.
Krichak, S. O., Alpert, P., and Krishnamurti, T. N.: Red Sea trough/cyclone development – Numerical investigation, Meteorol. Atmos. Phys., 63, 153–170, 1997.
Krichak, S. O., Tsidulko, M., and Alpert, P.: Monthly synoptic patterns associated with wet/dry conditions in the Eastern Mediterranean, Theor. Appl. Climatol., 65, 215–229, 2000.
Krichak, S. O., Breitgand, J. S., and Feldstein, S. B.: A Conceptual Model for the Identification of Active Red Sea Trough Synoptic Events over the Southeastern Mediterranean, J. Appl. Meteor. Climatol., 51, 962–971, https://doi.org/10.1175/JAMC-D-11-0223.1, 2012.
Krichak, S. O., Breitgand, J., Gualdi, S., and Feldstein, S. B.: Teleconnection – extreme precipitation relationships over the Mediterranean region, Theor. Appl. Climatol., 117, 679–692, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-013-1036-4, 2014.
Krichak, S. O., Feldstein, S. B., Alpert, P., Gualdi, S., Scoccimarro, E., and Yano, J.-I.: Discussing the role of tropical and subtropical moisture sources in extreme precipitation events in the Mediterranean region from a climate change perspective, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., 3, 3983–4005, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-3-3983-2015, 2015.
Kuhnel, I.: Tropical-extratropical cloudband climatology based on satellite data, Int J. Climatol., 9, 441–463, 1989.
Kutiel, H, and Paz S.: Sea level pressure departures in the Mediterranean and their relationship with monthly rainfall conditions in Israel, Theor. Appl. Climatol., 60, 93–109, 1998.
Lavers, D. A. and Villarini, G.: The nexus between atmospheric rivers and extreme precipitation across Europe, Geophys. Res. Lett., 40, 3259–3264, 2013.
Levy, I., Dayan, U., and Mahrer, I.: A 5-yr Study of the coastal recirculation and its effect on air pollutants over the East Mediterranean region, J. Geophys. Res., 113, D16121, https://doi.org/10.1029/07JD009529, 2008.
Lintynska, Z., Parfiniewicz, J., and Pinkovski, H.: The prediction of air mass thunderstorms and hails, WMO, 450, 128–130, 1976.
Lionello, P., Bhend, J., Buzzi, A., Della-Marta, P. M., Krichak, S., Jansà, A., Maheras, P., Sanna, A., Trigo, I. F., and Trigo, R.: Cyclones in the Mediterranean region: climatology and effects on the environment, edited by: Lionello, P., Malanotte-Rizzoli, P., and Boscolo, R., Mediterranean Climate Variability, Amsterdam: Elsevier, The Netherlands, 325–372, 2006.
Lionello, P. (Ed.): The climate of the Mediterranean Region. From the past to the future. Elsevier Insights, Elsevier, Amsterdam, The Netherlands, ISBN: 978-0-12-398466-1, 502 pp., 2012.
Maddox, R. A.: Mesoscale convective complexes, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 61, 1374–1387, 1980.
Maheras, P., Flocas, H. A., Anagnostopoulou, C., and Patrikas, I.: On the vertical structure of composite surface cyclones in the Mediterranean region, Theor. Appl. Climatol. 71, 199–217, 2002.
Mariotti, A., Struglia, M. V., Ning Zeng, and Lau, K. M.: The Hydrological Cycle in the Mediterranean Region and Implications for the Water Budget of the Mediterranean Sea, J. Climate, 15, 1674–1690, 2002a.
Mariotti, A., Zeng, N., and Lau, K. M.: Euro-Mediterranean rainfall and ENSO- a seasonally varying relationship, Geophys. Res. Lett., 29, 59-1–59-4, 2002b.
Martinez, C., Campins, J., Jansá, A., and Genoves, A.: Heavy rain events in the Western Mediterranean: An atmospheric pattern classification, Adv. Sci. Res., 2, 61–64, 2008.
Marullo, S., Santoleri, R., and Malanotte-Rizolli, P.: The sea surface temperature field in the Eastern Mediterranean from advanced very high resolution radiometer data, Part I, Seasonal variability, J. Mar. Syst., 20, 63–81, 1999.
Massacand, A. C., Wernli, H., and Davies, H. C.: Heavy precipitation on the alpine southside: An upper-level precursor, Geophys. Res. Lett., 25, 1435–1438, 1998.
Melani, S., Pasi, F., Gozzini, B., and Ortolani, A.: A four year (2007–2010) analysis of long-lasting deep convective systems in the Mediterranean Basin, Atmos. Res., 123, 151–166, 2013.
Miglietta, M. M. and Rotunno, R.: Numerical simulations of low-CAPE flows over a mountain ridge, J. Atmos. Sci., 67, 2391–2401, 2010.
Miglietta, M. M., Laviola, S., Malvaldi, A., Conte, D., Levizzani, V., and Price, C.: Analysis of tropical-like cyclones over the Mediterranean Sea through a combined modeling and satellite approach, Geophys. Res. Lett., 40, 2400–2405, https://doi.org/10.1002/grl.50432, 2013.
Millan, M. M., Estrela, M. J., and Caselles, V.: Torrential precipitations on the Spanish east coast: The role of the Mediterranean sea-surface temperature, Atmos. Res., 36, 1–16, 1995.
Moberg, A., Jones, P. D., Lister, D., Walther, A., Brunet, M., Jacobeit, J., Alexander, L. V., Della-Marta, P. M., Luterbacher, J., Yiou, P., Chen, D. L., Tank, A. M. G. K. Saladie, O., Sigro, J., Aguilar, E., Alexandersson, H., Almarza, C., Auer, I., Barriendos, M., Begert, M., Bergstrom, H., Bohm, R., Butler, C. J., Caesar, J., Drebs, A., Founda, D., Gerstengarbe, F. W., Micela, G., Maugeri, M., Osterle, H., Pandzic, K., Petrakis, M., Srnec, L., Tolasz, R., Tuomenvirta, H., Werner, P. C., Linderholm, H., Philipp, A., Wanner, H., and Xoplaki, E.: Indices for daily temperature and precipitation extremes in Europe analyzed for the period 1901–2000, J. Geophy. Res.-Atmos., 111, D22106, https://doi.org/10.1029/2006JD007103, 2006.
Mortimer, E. B., Johnson, G. A., Noble, D. G., and Ward, J. D.: An improved limited area quantitative precipitation forecast for west Texas, Preprint Second Conference on Flash Floods (Atlanta) AMS, Boston, 141–148, 1980.
Moses, T., Kiladis, G. N., Diaz, H. F., and Barry, R. G.: Characteristics and frequency of reversals in mean sea level pressure in the North Atlantic sector and their relationship to long-term temperature trends, J. Climatol., 7, 13–30, 1987.
Neumann, C. G. and Nicholson, J. R.: Multivariate regression techniques applied to thunderstorm forecasting at the Kennedy Space Center, Preprints, Inter. Conf. Aerospace and Aeronautical Meteor. Washington, DC, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 6–13, 1972.
Nuissier, O., Ducrocq, V., Ricard, D., Lebeaupina, C., and Anquetin, S.: A numerical study of three catastrophic precipitating events over southern France. I: Numerical framework and synoptic ingredients, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 134, 111–130, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.200, 2008.
Park, S.: Remote ENSO influence on Mediterranean sky conditions during late summer and autumn: Evidence for a slowly evolving atmospheric bridge, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 130, 2409–2422, 2004.
Pastor, F., Estrela, M. J. Penarrocha, P., and Millan, M. M.: Torrential rains on the Spanish Mediterranean coast: Modelling the effect of the sea surface temperature, J. Appl. Meteorol., 40, 1180–1195, 2001.
Pastor, F., Valiente, J. A., and Estrela, M. J.: Sea surface temperature and torrential rains in the Valencia region: modelling the role of recharge areas, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 1677–1693, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-1677-2015, 2015.
Pickup, N. M.: Consideration of the effect of the 500 hPa cyclonicity on the success of some thunderstorm forecasting techniques, Meteor. Mag., 111, 87–97, 1982.
Pinto, J. G., Ulbrich, S. Parodi, A. Rudari, R. Boni, G., and Ulbrich, U.: Identification and ranking of extraordinary rainfall events over Northwest Italy: The role of Atlantic moisture, J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 118, 2085–2097, https://doi.org/10.1002/jgrd.50179, 2013.
Pozo-Vazquez, D., Gamiz-Fortis, S. R., Tovar-Pescador, J., Esteban-Parra, M. J., and Castro-Deiz, Y.: El Niño-Southern Oscillation events and associated European winter precipitation anomalies. Int. J. Climatol., 25, 17–31, 2005.
Price, C., Stone, L., Huppert, A., Rajagopalan, B., and Alpert, P.: A possible link between El Nino and precipitation in Israel, Geophys. Res. Lett., 25, 3963–3966, https://doi.org/10.1029/1998GL900098, 1998.
Raible, C. C.: On the relation between extremes of midlatitude cyclones and the atmospheric circulation using ERA40, Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L07703, https://doi.org/10.1029/2006GL029084, 2007.
Ramis, C., Llasat, M. C., Genovés, A., and Jansá, A.: The October 1987 floods in Catalonia: synoptic and mesoscale mechanisms, Meteorol. Appl., 1, 337–350, 1994.
Ramis, C., Romero, R., Homar, V., Alonso, S., and Alarcon, M.: Diagnosis and numerical simulation of a torrential precipitation event in Catalonia (Spain), Meteorol. Atmos. Phys., 69, 1–21, 1998.
Ramis, C., López, J. M., and Arús J.: Two cases of severe weather in Catalonia (Spain). A diagnostic study, Meteorol. Appl., 6, 11–27, 1999.
Ramis, C., Romero, R., and Homar, V.: The severe thunderstorm of 4 October 2007 in Mallorca: an observational study, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 9, 1237–1245, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-9-1237-2009, 2009.
Raveh-Rubin, S. and Wernli, H.: Large-scale wind and precipitation extremes in the Mediterranean – a climatological analysis for 1979–2012, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 141, 2404–2417, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.2531, 2015.
Reale, O., Feudale, L., and Turato, B.: Evaporative moisture sources during a sequence of floods in the Mediterranean region, Geophys. Res. Lett., 28, 2085–2088, 2001.
Reale, M. and Lionello, P.: Synoptic climatology of winter intense precipitation events along the Mediterranean coasts, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 13, 1707–1722, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-1707-2013, 2013.
Reap, R. M. and Foster, D. S.: Automated 12-36 h probability forecasts of thunderstorms and severe local storms, J. Appl. Meteor., 18, 1304–1315, 1979.
Rigo, T. and Llasat, M. C.: Analysis of mesoscale convective systems in Catalonia using meteorological radar for the period 1996–2000, Atmos. Res., 83, 458–472, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2005.10.016, 2007.
Rimbu, N., Treut, H. L., Janicot, S., Boroneant, C., and Laurent, C.: Decadal precipitation variability over Europe and its relation with surface atmospheric circulation and sea surface temperature, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 127, 315–329, 2001.
Rodo, X., Baert, E., and Comin, F. A.: Variations in seasonal rainfall in southern Europe during present century: Relationships with the North Atlantic Oscillation and the El Niño–Southern Oscillation, Clim. Dyn., 13, 275–284, 1997.
Romero, R., Guijarro, J. A., Ramis, C., and Alonso, S.: A 30-year (1964–1993) daily rainfall data base for the Spanish Mediterranean regions: first exploratory study, Int J. Climatol., 18, 541–560, 1998.
Romero, R., Ramis, C., and Guijarro, J.A: Daily rainfall patterns in the Spanish Mediterranean area: an objective classification, Int. J. Climatol., 19, 95–112, 1999a.
Romero, R., Sumner, G., Ramis, C., and Genoves, A.: A classification of the atmospheric circulation patterns producing significant daily rainfall in the Spanish Mediterranean area, Int. J. Climatol., 19, 765–785, 1999b.
Romero, R., Ramis, C., and Alonso, S.: Numerical simulation of an extreme rainfall event in Catalonia: role of orography and evaporation from the sea, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 123, 537–559, 1997.
Ropelewski, C. F. and Halpert, M. S.: Global and regional scale precipitation patterns associated with the El Nino-Southern Oscillation, Mon. Weather Rev., 115, 2352–2362, 1987.
Rubin, S., Ziv, B., and Paldor, N.: Tropical plumes over Eastern North Africa as a source of rain in the Middle-East, Mon. Weather Rev., 135, 4135–4148, 2007.
Rudari, R., Entekhabi, D., and Roth, G.: Large-scale atmospheric patterns associated with mesoscale features leading to extreme precipitation events in Northwestern Italy, Adv. Water Resour., 28, 601–614, 2005.
Saaroni, H., Ziv, B., Bitan, A., and Alpert, P.: Easterly wind storms over Israel, Theor. Appl. Climatol., 59, 61–77, 1998.
Saaroni, H., Halfon, N., Ziv, B., Alpert, P., and Kutiel, H.: Links between the rainfall regime in Israel and location and intensity of Cyprus lows, Int. J. Climatol., 30: 1014–1025, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.1912, 2010.
Scaife, A. A., Folland, C. K., Alexander, L. V., Moberg, A., and Knight, J. R.: European climate extremes and the North Atlantic Oscillation, J. Climate, 21, 72–83, https://doi.org/10.1175/2007JCLI1631.1, 2008.
Segal, M., Arritt, R. W., Clark, C., Rabin, R., and Brown, J.: Scaling evaluation of the effect of surface characteristics on potential for deep convection over uniform terrain, Mon Weather Rev., 123, 383–400, 1995.
Senesi, S., Bougeault, P., Cheze, J. L., Consentino, Ph., and Thepenier, R. M.: The Vaison-la-Romaine flash flood: mesoscale analysis and predictability issues, Weather Forecast., 11, 417–442, 1996.
Shaman, J. and Tziperman, E.: An atmospheric teleconnection linking ENSO and Southwestern European precipitation, J. Climate, 24, 124–139, 2011.
Sodemann, H. and Zubler, E.: Seasonal and inter-annual variability of the moisture sources for Alpine precipitation during 1995–2002, Int. J. Climatol., 30, 947–961, 2010.
Sordo, C., Frias, M. D., Herrera, S., Cofino, A. S., and Gutierrez, J. M.: Interval-based statistical validation of operational seasonal forecast in Spain conditioned to El Niño–Southern Oscillation events, J. Geophys. Res., 113, D17121, https://doi.org/10.1029/2007JD009536, 2008.
Speranza, A.: The formation of baric depressions near the Alps, Ann. Geoph., 28, 177–217, 1975.
Speranza, A., Buzzi, A., Trevisan, A., and Malguzzi, P.: A theory of deep cyclogenesis in the lee of the Alps Part I: Modifications of baroclinic instability by localized topography, J. Atmos. Sci., 42, 1521–1535, 1985.
Toreti, A., Xoplaki, E., Maraun, D., Kuglitsch, F. G., Wanner, H., and Luterbacher, J.: Characterisation of extreme winter precipitation in Mediterranean coastal sites and associated anomalous atmospheric circulation patterns, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 10, 1037–1050, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-10-1037-2010, 2010.
Toreti, A., Martius, O., and Giannakaki, P.: Potential vorticity anomalies as precursors of extreme precipitation events in the Mediterranean region, Geophys. Res. Abstr., Vol. 16, EGU2014-10087, 2014.
Törnros, T.: On the relationship between the Mediterranean Oscillation and winter precipitation in the Southern Levant, Atmos. Sci. Lett., 14287–14293, https://doi.org/10.1002/asl2.450, 2013.
Trigo, I., Davies, T. D., and Bigg, G. R.: Objective Climatology of Cyclones in the Mediterranean Region, J. Climate, 12, 1685–1696, 1999.
Trigo, I. F., Davies, T. D., and Bigg, G. R.: Decline in Mediterranean rainfall caused by weakening of Mediterranean cyclone, Geophys. Res. Lett., 27, 2913–2916, 2000.
Tubi, A. and Dayan, U.: Tropical plumes over the Middle-East: Climatology and synoptic conditions, Atmos. Res., 145–146, 168–181, 2014.
Tuduri, E. and Ramis, C.: The environments of significant convective events in the Western Mediterranean, Weather Forecast., 12, 294–306, 1997.
Turato, B., Reale, O., and Siccardi, F.: Water vapor sources of the October 2000 Piedmont flood, J. Hydrometeorol., 5, 693–712, 2004.
Ulbrich, U., Lionello, P., Belušić, D., Jacobeit, J., Knippertz, P., Kuglitsch, F. G., Leckebusch, G. C., Luterbacher, J., Maugeri, M., Maheras, P., Nissen, K. M., Pavan, V., Pinto, J. G., Saaroni, H., Seubert, S., Toreti, A., Xoplaki, E., and Ziv, B.: Climate of the Mediterranean: Synoptic Patterns, Temperature, Precipitation, Winds, and Their Extremes, edited by: Lionello P., The Climate of the Mediterranean Region, From the Past to the Future, Amsterdam: Elsevier The Netherlands, 301–346, ISBN: 9780124160422, 2012.
Ventura, F., Rossi Pisa, P., and Ardizzoni, E.: Temperature and precipitation trends in Bologna (Italy) from 1952 to 1999, Atmos. Res., 203–214, 2002.
Vicente-Serrano, S. M.: El Nino and La Nina influence on droughts at different timescales in the Iberian peninsula, Water Resour. Res., 41, W12415, https://doi.org/10.1029/2004WR003908, 2005.
Weckwerth, T. M., Bennett, L. J., Miller, L. J., Baelen, J. V., Di Girolamo, P., Blyth, A. M., and Hertneky, T. J.: An Observational and Modeling Study of the Processes Leading to Deep, Moist Convection in Complex Terrain, Mon. Weather Rev., 142, 2687–2708, 2014.
Winschall, A., Sodemann, H., Pfahl, S., and Wernli, H.: How important is intensified evaporation for Mediterranean precipitation extremes?, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 119, 5240–5256, 2014.
Xoplaki, E., Gonzalez-Rouco, J. F., and Luterbacher, J.: Wet season Mediterranean precipitation variability: Influence of large-scale dynamics and trends, Clim. Dyn., 23, 63–78, 2004.
Xoplaki, E., Trigo, R. M., García-Herrera, R., Barriopedro, D., D'Andrea, F., Fischer, E. M., Gimeno, L., Gouveia, C., Hernández, E., Kuglitsch, F. G., Mariotti, A., Nieto, R., Pinto, J. G., Pozo-Vázquez, D., Saaroni, H., Toreti, A., Trigo, I. F., Vicente-Serrano, S. M., Yiou, P., and Ziv, B.: Large-scale atmospheric circulation driving extreme climate events in the Mediterranean and its related impacts, The Climate of the Mediterranean Region, 347–417, 2012.
Yiou, P. and Nogaj, M.: Extreme climatic events and weather regimes over the North Atlantic: When and where?, Geophys. Res. Lett., 31, L07202, https://doi.org/10.1029/2003GL019119, 2004.
Zangvil, A. and Isakson, A.: Structure of the water vapor field associated with an early spring rainstorm over the Eastern Mediterranean, Israel J. Earth Sci., 44, 159–168, 1995.
Ziv, B.: A subtropical rainstorm associated with a tropical plume over Africa and the Middle-East, Theor. Appl. Climatol., 69, 91–102, 2001.
Ziv, B., Dayan, U., and Sharon, D.: A mid-winter, tropical extreme flood-producing storm in southern Israel: Synoptic scale analysis, Meteorol. Atmos. Phys., 88, 53–63, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00703-003-0054-7, 2004.
Ziv, B., Dayan, U., Kushnir, Y., Roth, C., and Enzel, Y.: Regional and global atmospheric patterns governing rainfall in the southern Levant, Int. J. Climatol., 26, 55–73, 2006.
Zorita, E., Kharin, V., and von Storch, H.: The atmospheric circulation and sea surface temperature in the North Atlantic area in winter: their interaction and relevance for Iberian precipitation, J. Climate, 5, 1097–1108, 1992.
Short summary
This review discusses published studies analyzing the atmospheric conditions that induce extreme precipitation over the eastern and western Mediterranean regions. It presents a systematic description of the interlacing role of several atmospheric processes of different scales - local, meso, and synoptic - that enable the development of torrential rains.
This review discusses published studies analyzing the atmospheric conditions that induce extreme...
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint