Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
NHESS
Articles | Volume 26, issue 1
Articles | Volume 26, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-651-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-651-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 26, issue 1
Research article
 | 
29 Jan 2026
Research article |  | 29 Jan 2026

Coseismic surface rupture probabilities from earthquake cycle simulations: influence of fault geometry

Octavi Gómez-Novell, Francesco Visini, José Antonio Álvarez-Gómez, Bruno Pace, and Julián García-Mayordomo

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Latest update: 03 Nov 2026
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Short summary
Earthquake surface ruptures are a hazard for infrastructure and life that requires proper assessment. We use a physics-based earthquake cycle simulator to derive fault displacement hazard statistics in a test fault system and their dependence to fault geometry. Our results show that more complex fault geometries increase surface rupture probabilities and might improve the agreement with observations. Earthquake cycle simulators are thus a promising tool for fault displacement hazard analyses.
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