Articles | Volume 26, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-651-2026
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-651-2026
Research article
 | 
29 Jan 2026
Research article |  | 29 Jan 2026

Coseismic surface rupture probabilities from earthquake cycle simulations: influence of fault geometry

Octavi Gómez-Novell, Francesco Visini, José Antonio Álvarez-Gómez, Bruno Pace, and Julián García-Mayordomo

Data sets

RSQSim catalogues for the Monte Vettore Fault System (Central Italy) Octavi Gómez-Novell et al. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.15470923

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Short summary
Earthquake surface ruptures are a hazard for infrastructure and life that requires proper assessment. We use a physics-based earthquake cycle simulator to derive fault displacement hazard statistics in a test fault system and their dependence to fault geometry. Our results show that more complex fault geometries increase surface rupture probabilities and might improve the agreement with observations. Earthquake cycle simulators are thus a promising tool for fault displacement hazard analyses.
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