Articles | Volume 26, issue 11
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-5791-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-5791-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Scaling and exceedance probability of sinkhole collapse in evaporite karst (Dead Sea, Jordan)
Hanna Z. Schulten
UCD School of Earth Sciences, University College Dublin, Dublin, Ireland
Robert A. Watson
UCD School of Earth Sciences, University College Dublin, Dublin, Ireland
Djamil Al-Halbouni
Institute for Earth System Science and Remote Sensing, Leipzig University, Leipzig, Germany
UCD School of Earth Sciences, University College Dublin, Dublin, Ireland
iCRAG – Research Ireland Centre for Applied Geosciences, University College Dublin, Dublin, Ireland
Related authors
No articles found.
Diaa Sheishah, Enas Abdelsamei, Viktoria Blanka-Vegi, Károly Barta, Ahmed M. Ali, Khaldoun Abualhin, Djamil Al-Halbouni, Wouter Dorigo, and Gyorgy Sipos
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2026-563, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2026-563, 2026
Preprint under review for ESSD
Short summary
Short summary
Soil moisture controls drought, crop water supply, and groundwater recharge, but it is difficult to monitor below the surface. We used national monitoring data from 117 stations and six soil depths to build an open database that links soil moisture, soil type, water retention, and expected electromagnetic responses. The results identify a key mid-depth buffering zone and provide a practical reference for future drought monitoring, irrigation planning, and non-invasive soil-water surveys.
Aileen L. Doran, Victoria Dutch, Bridget Warren, Robert A. Watson, Kevin Murphy, Angus Aldis, Isabelle Cooper, Charlotte Cockram, Dyess Harp, Morgane Desmau, and Lydia Keppler
Geosci. Commun., 7, 227–244, https://doi.org/10.5194/gc-7-227-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gc-7-227-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In recent years, we have seen a global change in how we communicate, with an unplanned shift to virtual platforms, leading to inadvertent exclusion during online events. This article aims to provide guidance on planning online/hybrid events from an accessibility viewpoint, based on the combined experiences of several groups and individuals. Nevertheless, this is not a fully comprehensive guide, as every event is unique and has its own accessibility design needs.
Cited articles
Abelson, M., Yechieli, Y., Baer, G., Lapid, G., Behar, N., Calvo, R., and Rosensaft, M.: Natural versus human controls on subsurface salt dissolution and development of thousands of sinkholes along the Dead Sea coast, J. Geophys. Res.-Earth Surf., 122, 1262–1277, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017JF004219, 2017.
Al-Halbouni, D., Holohan, E. P., Saberi, L., Alrshdan, H., Sawarieh, A., Closson, D., Walter, T. R., and Dahm, T.: Sinkholes, subsidence and subrosion on the eastern shore of the Dead Sea as revealed by a close-range photogrammetric survey, Geomorphology, 285, 305–324, https://doi.org/10.1016/J.GEOMORPH.2017.02.006, 2017.
Al-Halbouni, D., Holohan, E. P., Taheri, A., Schöpfer, M. P. J., Emam, S., and Dahm, T.: Geomechanical modelling of sinkhole development using distinct elements: model verification for a single void space and application to the Dead Sea area, Solid Earth, 9, 1341–1373, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-9-1341-2018, 2018.
Al-Halbouni, D., Holohan, E. P., Taheri, A., Watson, R. A., Polom, U., Schöpfer, M. P. J., Emam, S., and Dahm, T.: Distinct element geomechanical modelling of the formation of sinkhole clusters within large-scale karstic depressions, Solid Earth, 10, 1219–1241, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-10-1219-2019, 2019.
Al-Halbouni, D., Watson, R. A., Holohan, E. P., Meyer, R., Polom, U., Dos Santos, F. M., Comas, X., Alrshdan, H., Krawczyk, C. M., and Dahm, T.: Dynamics of hydrological and geomorphological processes in evaporite karst at the eastern Dead Sea – a multidisciplinary study, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 3351–3395, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3351-2021, 2021.
Alstott, J., Bullmore, E., and Plenz, D.: powerlaw: A Python Package for Analysis of Heavy-Tailed Distributions, PLOS ONE, 9, e85777, https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0085777, 2014.
Arav, R., Filin, S., and Avni, Y.: Sinkhole swarms from initiation to stabilisation based on in situ high-resolution 3-D observations, Geomorphology, 351, 106916, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geomorph.2019.106916, 2020.
Arkin, Y. and Gilat, A.: Dead Sea sinkholes – An ever-developing hazard, Environ. Geol., 39, 711–722, https://doi.org/10.1007/s002540050485, 2000.
Avni, Y., Lensky, N., Dente, E., Shviro, M., Arav, R., Gavrieli, I., Yechieli, Y., Abelson, M., Lutzky, H., Filin, S., Haviv, I., and Baer, G.: Self-accelerated development of salt karst during flash floods along the Dead Sea Coast, Israel, J. Geophys. Res.-Earth Surf., 121, 17–38, https://doi.org/10.1002/2015JF003738, 2016.
Baer, G., Schattner, U., Wachs, D., Sandwell, D., Wdowinski, S., and Frydman, S.: The lowest place on Earth is subsiding – An InSAR (interferometric synthetic aperture radar) perspective, Geol. Soc. Am. Bull., 114, 12–23, https://doi.org/10.1130/0016-7606(2002)114<0012:TLPOEI>2.0.CO;2, 2002.
Baer, G., Bernstein, M., Yechieli, Y., Nof, R. N., Abelson, M., and Gavrieli, I.: Elevation and thickness of the 11–10 Kyr old `Sinkholes Salt' layer in the Dead Sea: clues to past limnology, paleo-bathymetry and lake levels, J. Paleolimnol., 70, 159–173, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10933-023-00286-9, 2023.
Bartov, Y., Stein, M., Enzel, Y., Agnon, A., and Reches, Z.: Lake Levels and Sequence Stratigraphy of Lake Lisan, the Late Pleistocene Precursor of the Dead Sea, Quat. Res., 57, 9–21, https://doi.org/10.1006/qres.2001.2284, 2002.
Bookman, R., Enzel, Y., Agnon, A., and Stein, M.: Late Holocene levels of the Dead Sea, Geol. Soc. Am. Bull., 116, 555–571, https://doi.org/10.1130/B25286.1, 2004.
Clauset, A., Shalizi, C. R., and Newman, M. E. J.: Power-law distributions in empirical data, SIAM Rev., 51, 661–703, https://doi.org/10.1137/070710111, 2009.
Cooper, A. H.: Halite karst geohazards (natural and man-made) in the United Kingdom, Environ. Geol., 42, 505–512, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00254-001-0512-9, 2002.
Corral, Á. and González, Á.: Power Law Size Distributions in Geoscience Revisited, Earth Space Sci., 6, 673–697, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018EA000479, 2019.
De Waele, J., Gutiérrez, F., Parise, M., and Plan, L.: Geomorphology and natural hazards in karst areas: A review, Geomorphology, 134, 1–8, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geomorph.2011.08.001, 2011.
El-Isa, Z., Rimawi, O., Jarrar, G., Abou Karaki, N., Taqieddin, S., Atallah, M., Seif El-Din, N., and Al Saed, A.: Assessment of the hazard of subsidence and sinkholes in Ghor Al-Haditha area, 1995.
Fiaschi, S., Closson, D., Abou Karaki, N., Pasquali, P., Riccardi, P., and Floris, M.: The complex karst dynamics of the Lisan Peninsula revealed by 25 years of DInSAR observations. Dead Sea, Jordan, ISPRS J. Photogramm. Remote Sens., 130, 358–369, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.isprsjprs.2017.06.008, 2017.
Filin, S., Baruch, A., Avni, Y., and Marco, S.: Sinkhole characterization in the Dead Sea area using airborne laser scanning, Nat. Hazards, 58, 1135–1154, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-011-9718-7, 2011.
Galve, J. P., Bonachea, J., Remondo, J., Gutiérrez, F., Guerrero, J., Lucha, P., Cendrero, A., Gutiérrez, M., and Sánchez, J. A.: Development and validation of sinkhole susceptibility models in mantled karst settings. A case study from the Ebro valley evaporite karst (NE Spain), Eng. Geol., 99, 185–197, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enggeo.2007.11.011, 2008.
Galve, J. P., Gutiérrez, F., Lucha, P., Bonachea, J., Remondo, J., Cendrero, A., Gutiérrez, M., Gimeno, M. J., Pardo, G., and Sánchez, J. A.: Sinkholes in the salt-bearing evaporite karst of the Ebro River valley upstream of Zaragoza city (NE Spain): Geomorphological mapping and analysis as a basis for risk management, Geomorphology, 108, 145–158, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geomorph.2008.12.018, 2009.
Galve, J. P., Remondo, J., and Gutiérrez, F.: Improving sinkhole hazard models incorporating magnitude–frequency relationships and nearest neighbor analysis, Geomorphology, 134, 157–170, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geomorph.2011.05.020, 2011.
Garfunkel, Z. and Ben-Avraham, Z.: The structure of the Dead Sea basin, Tectonophysics, 266, 155–176, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0040-1951(96)00188-6, 1996.
Gökkaya, E., Gutiérrez, F., Ferk, M., and Görüm, T.: Sinkhole development in the Sivas gypsum karst, Turkey, Geomorphology, 386, 107746, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geomorph.2021.107746, 2021.
Goldsmith, Y., Cohen, O., Stein, M., Torfstein, A., Kiro, Y., Kushnir, Y., Bartov, Y., Ben-Moshe, L., Frumkin, A., Lensky, N. G., Keinan, J., Gonen, L., and Enzel, Y.: Holocene humid periods of the Levant – evidence from Dead Sea lake-levels, Quat. Sci. Rev., 318, 108312, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2023.108312, 2023.
Gutiérrez, F.: Sinkhole Hazards, in: Oxford Research Encyclopedia of Natural Hazard Science, https://doi.org/10.1093/acrefore/9780199389407.013.40, 2016.
Gutiérrez, F., Cooper, A. H., and Johnson, K. S.: Identification, prediction, and mitigation of sinkhole hazards in evaporite karst areas, Environ. Geol., 53, 1007–1022, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00254-007-0728-4, 2008.
Gutiérrez, F., Parise, M., De Waele, J., and Jourde, H.: A review on natural and human-induced geohazards and impacts in karst, Earth-Sci. Rev., 138, 61–88, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.earscirev.2014.08.002, 2014.
Gutiérrez, F., Fabregat, I., Roqué, C., Carbonel, D., Zarroca, M., Linares, R., Yechieli, Y., García-Arnay, Á., and Sevil, J.: Sinkholes in hypogene versus epigene karst systems, illustrated with the hypogene gypsum karst of the Sant Miquel de Campmajor Valley, NE Spain, Geomorphology, 328, 57–78, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geomorph.2018.12.003, 2019.
Harris, C. R., Millman, K. J., van der Walt, S. J., Gommers, R., Virtanen, P., Cournapeau, D., Wieser, E., Taylor, J., Berg, S., Smith, N. J., Kern, R., Picus, M., Hoyer, S., van Kerkwijk, M. H., Brett, M., Haldane, A., del Río, J. F., Wiebe, M., Peterson, P., Gérard-Marchant, P., Sheppard, K., Reddy, T., Weckesser, W., Abbasi, H., Gohlke, C., and Oliphant, T. E.: Array programming with NumPy, Nature, 585, 357–362, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-020-2649-2, 2020.
Hunter, J. D.: Matplotlib: A 2D Graphics Environment, Comput. Sci. Eng., 9, 90–95, https://doi.org/10.1109/MCSE.2007.55, 2007.
Johnson, K. S.: Evaporite-karst problems and studies in the USA, Environ. Geol., 53, 937–943, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00254-007-0716-8, 2008.
Kaufmann, G., Romanov, D., and Hiller, T.: Modeling three-dimensional karst aquifer evolution using different matrix-flow contributions, J. Hydrol., 388, 241–250, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2010.05.001, 2010.
Kiro, Y., Goldstein, S. L., Garcia-Veigas, J., Levy, E., Kushnir, Y., Stein, M., and Lazar, B.: Relationships between lake-level changes and water and salt budgets in the Dead Sea during extreme aridities in the Eastern Mediterranean, Earth Planet. Sci. Lett., 464, 211–226, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epsl.2017.01.043, 2017.
Medwedeff, W. G., Clark, M. K., Zekkos, D., and West, A. J.: Characteristic landslide distributions: An investigation of landscape controls on landslide size, Earth Planet. Sci. Lett., 539, 116203, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epsl.2020.116203, 2020.
Migowski, C., Stein, M., Prasad, S., Negendank, J. F. W., and Agnon, A.: Holocene climate variability and cultural evolution in the Near East from the Dead Sea sedimentary record, Quat. Res., 66, 421–431, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.yqres.2006.06.010, 2006.
Mihevc, A. and Mihevc, R.: Morphological characteristics and distribution of dolines in Slovenia, a study of a lidar-based doline map of Slovenia, Acta Carsol., 50, https://doi.org/10.3986/ac.v50i1.9462, 2021.
Neugebauer, I., Brauer, A., Schwab, M. J., Waldmann, N. D., Enzel, Y., Kitagawa, H., Torfstein, A., Frank, U., Dulski, P., Agnon, A., Ariztegui, D., Ben-Avraham, Z., Goldstein, S. L., and Stein, M.: Lithology of the long sediment record recovered by the ICDP Dead Sea Deep Drilling Project (DSDDP), Quat. Sci. Rev., 102, 149–165, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2014.08.013, 2014.
Nof, R., Abelson, M., Raz, E., Magen, Y., Atzori, S., Salvi, S., and Baer, G.: SAR Interferometry for Sinkhole Early Warning and Susceptibility Assessment along the Dead Sea, Israel, Remote Sens., 11, 89, https://doi.org/10.3390/rs11010089, 2019.
Pardo-Igúzquiza, E., Dowd, P. A., and Telbisz, T.: On the size-distribution of solution dolines in carbonate karst: Lognormal or power model?, Geomorphology, 351, 106972, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geomorph.2019.106972, 2020.
Polom, U., Alrshdan, H., Al-Halbouni, D., Holohan, E. P., Dahm, T., Sawarieh, A., Atallah, M. Y., and Krawczyk, C. M.: Shear wave reflection seismic yields subsurface dissolution and subrosion patterns: application to the Ghor Al-Haditha sinkhole site, Dead Sea, Jordan, Solid Earth, 9, 1079–1098, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-9-1079-2018, 2018.
Rajab, J. A., Yogeshwar, P., Tezkan, B., and Al-Halbouni, D.: Transient electromagnetic imaging of saltwater intrusion at the shrinking Dead Sea, Sci. Rep., 15, 30250, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-15189-0, 2025.
Salameh, E. and El-Naser, H.: Changes in the Dead Sea Level and their Impacts on the Surrounding Groundwater Bodies, Acta Hydrochim. Hydrobiol., 28, 24–33, https://doi.org/10.1002/(SICI)1521-401X(200001)28:1<24::AID-AHEH24>3.0.CO;2-6, 2000.
Sawarieh, A., Al Addas, A., Al Bashish, M., and Al Seba'i, E.: Sinkholes Phenomena At Ghor Al Haditha Study Area – Internal Report No. 12, Natural Resources Authority, Amman, Jordan, 2000.
Schulten, H. Z., Watson, R. A., Al-Halbouni, D., Alrabayah, O., and Holohan, E.: Locations and outlines of collapse sinkholes formed from 1992 to 2024 in evaporite karst at the eastern Dead Sea shore (Jordan) as defined in high resolution optical remote-sensing data, Zenodo [data set], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.17417004, 2025.
scipy.stats.lognorm – SciPy v1.16.1 Manual, The SciPy Project, https://docs.scipy.org/doc/scipy/reference/generated/scipy.stats.lognorm.html#scipy.stats.lognorm, last access: 31 July 2025.
Sevil, J. and Gutiérrez, F.: Morphometry and evolution of sinkholes on the western shore of the Dead Sea. Implications for susceptibility assessment, Geomorphology, 434, 108732, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geomorph.2023.108732, 2023.
Sevil, J. and Gutiérrez, F.: Temporal variability of sinkhole hazard illustrated in the western shore of the Dead Sea, Nat. Hazards, 120, 12663–12677, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-024-06708-9, 2024.
Shalev, E. and Lyakhovsky, V.: Viscoelastic damage modeling of sinkhole formation, J. Struct. Geol., 42, 163–170, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jsg.2012.05.010, 2012.
Shaqour, F.: Hydrogeologic role in sinkhole development in the desert of Kuwait, Environ. Geol., 23, 201–208, https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00771789, 1994.
Stark, C. P. and Hovius, N.: The characterization of landslide size distributions, Geophys. Res. Lett., 28, 1091–1094, https://doi.org/10.1029/2000GL008527, 2001.
Stein, M., Torfstein, A., Gavrieli, I., and Yechieli, Y.: Abrupt aridities and salt deposition in the post-glacial Dead Sea and their North Atlantic connection, Quat. Sci. Rev., 29, 567–575, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2009.10.015, 2010.
Taheri, K., Mohseni, H., Raeisi, E., and Taheri, M.: Sinkhole susceptibility mapping using the analytical hierarchy process (AHP) and magnitude–frequency relationships: A case study in Hamadan province, Iran, Geomorphology, 234, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geomorph.2015.01.005, 2015.
Taqieddin, S. A., Abderahman, N. S., and Atallah, M.: Sinkhole hazards along the eastern Dead Sea shoreline area, Jordan: a geological and geotechnical consideration, Environ. Geol., 39, 1237–1253, https://doi.org/10.1007/s002549900095, 2000.
ten Brink, U. S. and Flores, C. H.: Geometry and subsidence history of the Dead Sea basin: A case for fluid-induced mid-crustal shear zone?, J. Geophys. Res.-B Solid Earth, 117, https://doi.org/10.1029/2011JB008711, 2012.
The pandas development team: pandas-dev/pandas: Pandas, Zenodo, https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.13819579, 2024.
Torfstein, A., Gavrieli, I., Katz, A., Kolodny, Y., and Stein, M.: Gypsum as a monitor of the paleo-limnological–hydrological conditions in Lake Lisan and the Dead Sea, Geochim. Cosmochim. Acta, 72, 2491–2509, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gca.2008.02.015, 2008.
Vachtman, D. and Laronne, J. B.: Hydraulic geometry of cohesive channels undergoing base level drop, Geomorphology, 197, 76–84, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geomorph.2013.04.039, 2013.
Verbovšek, T. and Gabor, L.: Morphometric properties of dolines in Matarsko podolje, SW Slovenia, Environ. Earth Sci., 78, 396, https://doi.org/10.1007/s12665-019-8398-6, 2019.
Vey, S., Al-Halbouni, D., Haghighi, M. H., Alshawaf, F., Vüllers, J., Güntner, A., Dick, G., Ramatschi, M., Teatini, P., Wickert, J., and Weber, M.: Delayed subsidence of the Dead Sea shore due to hydro-meteorological changes, Sci. Rep., 11, 13518, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-91949-y, 2021.
Wadas, S. H., Tanner, D. C., Polom, U., and Krawczyk, C. M.: Structural analysis of S-wave seismics around an urban sinkhole: evidence of enhanced dissolution in a strike-slip fault zone, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 2335–2350, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-2335-2017, 2017.
Waltham, T., Bell, F. G., and Culshaw, M. G.: Sinkholes and Subsidence: Karst and Cavernous Rocks in Engineering and Construction, Springer Science & Business Media, 405 pp., ISBN 3-540-20725-2, https://doi.org/10.1007/b138363, 2007.
Waskom, M. L.: seaborn: statistical data visualization, J. Open Source Softw., 6, 3021, https://doi.org/10.21105/joss.03021, 2021.
Watson, R., Bunce, C., Drew, D., Fiaschi, S., Hickey, C., Walsh, J. J., and Holohan, E.: An inception framework hypothesis for karst development in the Burren, Ireland, Geomorphology, 466, 109450, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geomorph.2024.109450, 2024.
Watson, R. A., Holohan, E. P., Al-Halbouni, D., Saberi, L., Sawarieh, A., Closson, D., Alrshdan, H., Abou Karaki, N., Siebert, C., Walter, T. R., and Dahm, T.: Sinkholes and uvalas in evaporite karst: spatio-temporal development with links to base-level fall on the eastern shore of the Dead Sea, Solid Earth, 10, 1451–1468, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-10-1451-2019, 2019.
Yaoru, L., Feng'e, Z., Jixiang, Q., Jiaming, X., and Xiuhong, G.: Evaporite karst and resultant geohazards in China, Carbonate. Evaporite., 17, 159–165, https://doi.org/10.1007/BF03176482, 2002.
Yechieli, Y.: Fresh-Saline Ground Water Interface in the Western Dead Sea Area, Groundwater, 38, 615–623, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1745-6584.2000.tb00253.x, 2000.
Yechieli, Y., Magaritz, M., Levy, Y., Weber, U., Kafri, U., Woelfli, W., and Bonani, G.: Late Quaternary Geological History of the Dead Sea Area, Israel, Quat. Res., 39, 59–67, https://doi.org/10.1006/qres.1993.1007, 1993.
Yechieli, Y., Abelson, M., Bein, A., Crouvi, O., and Shtivelman, V.: Sinkhole “swarms” along the Dead Sea coast: Reflection of disturbance of lake and adjacent groundwater systems, Bull. Geol. Soc. Am., 118, 1075–1087, https://doi.org/10.1130/B25880.1, 2006.
Yizhaq, H., Ish-Shalom, C., Raz, E., and Ashkenazy, Y.: Scale-free distribution of Dead Sea sinkholes: Observations and modeling, Geophys. Res. Lett., 44, 4944–4952, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL073655, 2017.
Short summary
Sinkhole collapse can destroy buildings and infrastructure. Probability of collapse of a certain size within a given time frame is key to estimating associated risk. We map and analyse the sizes of >2000 sinkholes formed over the last 40 years on the Dead Sea’s eastern shore. We show that sinkhole sizes are constrained to within a range of c. 1–80 m in diameter (in a log-normal size-frequency relationship), such that the most likely collapse size in any year is ~5–10 m.
Sinkhole collapse can destroy buildings and infrastructure. Probability of collapse of a certain...
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint