Articles | Volume 26, issue 11
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-5791-2026
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-5791-2026
Research article
 | 
13 Nov 2026
Research article |  | 13 Nov 2026

Scaling and exceedance probability of sinkhole collapse in evaporite karst (Dead Sea, Jordan)

Hanna Z. Schulten, Robert A. Watson, Djamil Al-Halbouni, and Eoghan P. Holohan

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Cited articles

Abelson, M., Yechieli, Y., Baer, G., Lapid, G., Behar, N., Calvo, R., and Rosensaft, M.: Natural versus human controls on subsurface salt dissolution and development of thousands of sinkholes along the Dead Sea coast, J. Geophys. Res.-Earth Surf., 122, 1262–1277, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017JF004219, 2017. 
Al-Halbouni, D., Holohan, E. P., Saberi, L., Alrshdan, H., Sawarieh, A., Closson, D., Walter, T. R., and Dahm, T.: Sinkholes, subsidence and subrosion on the eastern shore of the Dead Sea as revealed by a close-range photogrammetric survey, Geomorphology, 285, 305–324, https://doi.org/10.1016/J.GEOMORPH.2017.02.006, 2017. 
Al-Halbouni, D., Holohan, E. P., Taheri, A., Schöpfer, M. P. J., Emam, S., and Dahm, T.: Geomechanical modelling of sinkhole development using distinct elements: model verification for a single void space and application to the Dead Sea area, Solid Earth, 9, 1341–1373, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-9-1341-2018, 2018. 
Al-Halbouni, D., Holohan, E. P., Taheri, A., Watson, R. A., Polom, U., Schöpfer, M. P. J., Emam, S., and Dahm, T.: Distinct element geomechanical modelling of the formation of sinkhole clusters within large-scale karstic depressions, Solid Earth, 10, 1219–1241, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-10-1219-2019, 2019. 
Al-Halbouni, D., Watson, R. A., Holohan, E. P., Meyer, R., Polom, U., Dos Santos, F. M., Comas, X., Alrshdan, H., Krawczyk, C. M., and Dahm, T.: Dynamics of hydrological and geomorphological processes in evaporite karst at the eastern Dead Sea – a multidisciplinary study, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 3351–3395, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3351-2021, 2021. 
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Short summary
Sinkhole collapse can destroy buildings and infrastructure. Probability of collapse of a certain size within a given time frame is key to estimating associated risk. We map and analyse the sizes of >2000 sinkholes formed over the last 40 years on the Dead Sea’s eastern shore. We show that sinkhole sizes are constrained to within a range of c. 1–80 m in diameter (in a log-normal size-frequency relationship), such that the most likely collapse size in any year is ~5–10 m.
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