Articles | Volume 26, issue 11
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-5791-2026
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-5791-2026
Research article
 | 
13 Nov 2026
Research article |  | 13 Nov 2026

Scaling and exceedance probability of sinkhole collapse in evaporite karst (Dead Sea, Jordan)

Hanna Z. Schulten, Robert A. Watson, Djamil Al-Halbouni, and Eoghan P. Holohan

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Interactive discussion

Status: closed

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2025-5280', Anonymous Referee #1, 02 Jul 2026
    • AC1: 'Reply on RC1', Eoghan Holohan, 22 Jul 2026
  • RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2025-5280', Anonymous Referee #2, 02 Jul 2026
    • AC2: 'Reply on RC2', Eoghan Holohan, 22 Jul 2026

Peer review completion

AR – Author's response | RR – Referee report | ED – Editor decision | EF – Editorial file upload
ED: Submit a revised manuscript (01 Aug 2026) by Paolo Tarolli
AR by Eoghan Holohan on behalf of the Authors (19 Aug 2026)  Author's response   Author's tracked changes   Manuscript 
ED: Publish as is (11 Sep 2026) by Paolo Tarolli
AR by Eoghan Holohan on behalf of the Authors (21 Sep 2026)  Manuscript 

Post-review adjustments

AA – Author's adjustment | EA – Editor approval
AA by Eoghan Holohan on behalf of the Authors (15 Oct 2026)   Author's adjustment   Manuscript
EA: Adjustments approved (07 Nov 2026) by Paolo Tarolli
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Short summary
Sinkhole collapse can destroy buildings and infrastructure. Probability of collapse of a certain size within a given time frame is key to estimating associated risk. We map and analyse the sizes of >2000 sinkholes formed over the last 40 years on the Dead Sea’s eastern shore. We show that sinkhole sizes are constrained to within a range of c. 1–80 m in diameter (in a log-normal size-frequency relationship), such that the most likely collapse size in any year is ~5–10 m.
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