Scaling and exceedance probability of sinkhole collapse in evaporite karst (Dead Sea, Jordan)

Schulten, Hanna Z.; Watson, Robert A.; Al-Halbouni, Djamil; Holohan, Eoghan P.

doi:10.5194/nhess-26-5791-2026

Articles | Volume 26, issue 11

https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-5791-2026

© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-5791-2026

© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Articles | Volume 26, issue 11

Research article

|

13 Nov 2026

Research article |

| 13 Nov 2026

Scaling and exceedance probability of sinkhole collapse in evaporite karst (Dead Sea, Jordan)

Hanna Z. Schulten, Robert A. Watson, Djamil Al-Halbouni, and Eoghan P. Holohan

Supplement

https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-5791-2026-supplement

Data sets

Locations and outlines of collapse sinkholes formed from 1992 to 2024 in evaporite karst at the eastern Dead Sea shore (Jordan) as defined in high resolution optical remote-sensing data H. Z. Schulten et al. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.17417004

Interactive computing environment

Locations and outlines of collapse sinkholes formed from 1992 to 2024 in evaporite karst at the eastern Dead Sea shore (Jordan) as defined in high resolution optical remote-sensing data H. Z. Schulten et al. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.17417004

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Short summary

Sinkhole collapse can destroy buildings and infrastructure. Probability of collapse of a certain size within a given time frame is key to estimating associated risk. We map and analyse the sizes of >2000 sinkholes formed over the last 40 years on the Dead Sea’s eastern shore. We show that sinkhole sizes are constrained to within a range of c. 1–80 m in diameter (in a log-normal size-frequency relationship), such that the most likely collapse size in any year is ~5–10 m.