Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
NHESS
Articles | Volume 26, issue 11
Articles | Volume 26, issue 11
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-5791-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-5791-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 26, issue 11
Research article
 | 
13 Nov 2026
Research article |  | 13 Nov 2026

Scaling and exceedance probability of sinkhole collapse in evaporite karst (Dead Sea, Jordan)

Hanna Z. Schulten, Robert A. Watson, Djamil Al-Halbouni, and Eoghan P. Holohan

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Short summary
Sinkhole collapse can destroy buildings and infrastructure. Probability of collapse of a certain size within a given time frame is key to estimating associated risk. We map and analyse the sizes of >2000 sinkholes formed over the last 40 years on the Dead Sea’s eastern shore. We show that sinkhole sizes are constrained to within a range of c. 1–80 m in diameter (in a log-normal size-frequency relationship), such that the most likely collapse size in any year is ~5–10 m.
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