Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
NHESS
Articles | Volume 26, issue 11
Articles | Volume 26, issue 11
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-5733-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-5733-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 26, issue 11
Research article
 | 
11 Nov 2026
Research article |  | 11 Nov 2026

Quantifying the attributable impact of the February 2018 sudden stratospheric warming on mortality in the Nordics and United Kingdom

Philip Rupp, Liliana Vázquez Fernández, William J. M. Seviour, and Thomas Birner

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Short summary
We study mortality impacts of sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) via counterfactual ensemble simulations. SSWs robustly increase the likelihood of cold spells in Northern Europe, but the socio-economic effects remain poorly quantified. Using re-forecasts of the 2018 SSW and mortality records, we attribute hundreds of expected deaths in the UK and Nordics to this event. The strongest impacts emerge from combined post-SSW cold anomalies and heightened mortality sensitivity to these anomalies.
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